Public service reform strategy - theory of change, and monitoring, evaluation and learning framework: update

1. Theory of Change

This section sets out the Public Service Reform Strategy Theory of Change and accompanying narrative, developed by analysts within the Central Analysis Division of the Scottish Government. It describes what a Theory of Change is, and the methodology used to develop one for the PSR strategy. The Theory of Change has informed the development of a Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning Framework to assess progress and outcomes across all PSR workstreams. The Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning Framework is described in section 2.

Developing the Theory of Change

A Theory of Change sets out how a programme or intervention is expected to work and achieve its intended outcomes. It is usually produced through an iterative process, with stakeholders involved in drafting and refining the model.

We took a collaborative approach to developing this theory of change by holding online workshops with Scottish Government staff from across the 18 workstreams of the Public Service Reform Strategy. These workshops were attended by SG officials from a range of policy areas including Built Environment, Digital, Data and Technology, Finance, Procurement, Health, Local Government, Third sector, Operational Delivery and the Public Service Reform Directorate.

During these workshops, colleagues identified medium and longer-term outcomes, and how and why different activities are expected to lead to these outcomes. It was recognised that achieving these outcomes requires system-level change driven by the Scottish Government but is contingent on leadership and action by our delivery partners. Future phases of this work will seek to map this in more detail.

We also discussed interdependencies within the range of work that is underway or planned, and underlying assumptions and risks across the workstreams. This is explained in more detail in the narrative provided below.

Following these workshops the research team produced a high-level Theory of Change for the entire strategy (Figure 1). It summarises the critical elements and demonstrates a clear process of change or ‘pathway’ from planned activities to the long-term outcomes we are working towards. In practice, some of these features can be hard to identify in advance, so the Theory of Change does not contain or explain every factor that will impact on the outcomes. It also does not include detail on everything that is being delivered or planned across the workstreams. For example, the realisation of long-term outcomes will be dependent on successful joint working with key partners such as Local Government, public bodies, third sector, trade unions and communities. The full range of outcomes cannot be achieved by the Scottish Government alone.

The Theory of Change has been designed to align with other Scottish Government frameworks at various stages of development. These connections to wider Scottish Government work, and the different levels of delivery and approaches being taken to monitoring and evaluation – from the strategic to delivery level – are indicated by Figure 2.

Whilst it does not reflect the full complexity of the Public Service Reform Strategy, this Theory of Change is a helpful tool which will contribute to the following:

• Supporting a shared understanding of this work;
• Providing clarity on the critical outputs and outcomes;
• Identifying interdependencies across the workstreams;
• Reviewing the existing evidence base;
• Developing an approach to monitoring and evaluation.

The Theory of Change is also intended to be accessible to a wider audience, as a visual ‘map’ of where we need to get to and how we will get there.

A Theory of Change for the Scottish Government’s Public Service Reform strategy. This sets out the overall vision, that ‘Everyone in Scotland has access to services that are efficient, good quality and effective’. The diagram has four main sections: the problem, activities, mechanisms of change and long-term outcomes. The diagram also includes case study examples, and sets out assumptions, moderating factors, risks and interdependencies which may impact delivery.

A diagram showing levels of delivery for the Public Service Reform Strategy, from wider dependencies and links with Scottish Government frameworks to the Foundations and Pillars of the strategy, programme and project-level examples, and the work of public bodies, delivery partners and service providers at delivery level.

Theory of Change narrative

Why was the Public Service Reform Strategy developed?

In its 2011 report, the Christie Commission outlined the need for public services that were efficient, integrated, prioritised prevention and empowered staff and service users. Despite some significant successes, this vision has not yet been delivered to its full potential.

The Public Service Reform Strategy sets out commitments to change the system of public services, and to work in a more efficient, joined up and preventative way. Collectively, this will lead to better outcomes for people in Scotland. In line with this, the first section of the Theory of Change (Figure 1) sets out the critical issues we are trying to solve.

How is the Public Service Reform Strategy structured?

The purpose and aims outlined above are reflected in the three Pillars of the Public Service Reform Strategy:

• Pillar 1. Prevention
• Pillar 2. Joined up services
• Pillar 3. Efficient services

The Public Service Reform Strategy also sets out how we will tackle systemic barriers to change, with four foundational workstreams that underpin the three pillars. The four Foundations of the strategy are:

• Foundation 1. Leadership and cultural change
• Foundation 2. Accountability and Incentives
• Foundation 3. Empowering People, Place and Communities
• Foundation 4. Ensuring the Right Delivery Landscape

Across the Pillars and Foundations, there are 18 workstreams in total.

The following sections provide more detail on each part of the Theory of Change:

1. Inputs

2. Activities

3. Case studies

4. Interdependencies

5. Mechanisms of change

6. Long-term outcomes

7. Assumptions and Moderating Factors

1. Inputs

Although inputs are not shown in Figure 1, they are recognised as being essential for delivery. Inputs are the resources that are required to carry out our proposed commitments and to ultimately achieve our intended outcomes. The main inputs for the Public Service Reform Strategy are:

1.1 Scottish Government resources, staff time and expertise

The Scottish Government is a critical partner in the delivery eco-system. It designs, develops and delivers policies and services. The Scottish Government also has a key role in providing leadership and strategic direction.

The 18 workstreams of the PSR Strategy are led by staff from different policy teams and will rely on professional expertise in areas such as Digital, Data and Technology, Finance, Procurement, Health and Operational Delivery, as well as broader collaboration and engagement across the Scottish Government.

In terms of budget, there is investment in a small, central portfolio team, as well as staff working across all 18 workstreams and budget associated with those workstreams where appropriate.

1.2 Stakeholder engagement (joint working/collaboration)

Successful delivery of the Public Service Reform Strategy will rely on collaboration and engagement between the Scottish Government, partner organisations and the public to deliver the system change required. The system is broad and includes a range of partners including:

• COSLA and Local Government / Local authorities
• Scottish Government (Scottish Ministers, Scottish Government Directors and civil servants of different professions)
• Public bodies and agencies (including NHS Scotland, health boards, Education Scotland, Social Security Scotland, Police Scotland)
• Governance groups (including the Public Service Reform Board)
• Networks (including the Public Service Leadership Support Network, Scottish Property Leaders’ Forum)
• Third sector and community organisations and groups
• Local delivery mechanisms including community planning partnerships
• Trade Unions
• Delivery partners and frontline staff
• The public, including service users

1.3 Infrastructure

In addition to funding and staff resources, work across the programme will rely on infrastructure including the maintenance of data platforms, tools and technical systems by the Scottish Government and partner organisations, alongside the development of new tools as part of specific workstreams.

2. Activities

Working with the public sector, wider stakeholders and partners, we will deliver change through a range of activities and initiatives across 18 planned workstreams within the Foundations and Pillars. The workstreams are designed to focus on specific areas of work, remove barriers to change, and to increase the scale and pace of reform. The second section of the Theory of Change (Figure 1) summarises activities across the Strategy at a high-level, with examples such as using new performance tools to measure the impact of our work and improving the collection and sharing of data.

The 18 workstreams are at different stages of development, and there are important issues to consider around timing, sequencing and prioritisation. Further interdependencies are noted below. The latest update on progress across these workstreams, including detail on future milestones, was published in January 2026.^[1]

The Scottish Government has developed an internal delivery dashboard to monitor the status of the projects and actions underpinning the workstreams. This dashboard will be updated on a regular basis and provides a high-level overview of delivery progress within each Foundation and Pillar.

3. Case Studies

The Theory of Change includes three case studies as examples of the type of work this includes, and its practical impact (see Figure 1):

• Whole Family Support^[2]
• Scottish Leaders Forum^[3]
• National Performance Framework^[4]

4. Interdependencies

The individual strands of the Public Service Reform Strategy are intended to be interdependent, and we recognise that measurable change is required across the four Foundations in order to deliver the change set out in Pillars 1, 2 and 3.

As noted in Figure 1, delivery of the PSR Strategy requires coordinated action across multiple workstreams. Key projects are interdependent, and achieving the intended outcomes will depend on alignment and sequencing across the programme. For example, elements of Foundation 4 (Ensuring the Right Delivery Landscape) will be dependent on workstreams under Pillar 3 that support efficiency given significant benefits can be realised through public bodies working more closely together and sharing services.

The Theory of Change should therefore not be interpreted as a linear, step-by step process. Different activities and outcomes will overlap and shape each other as work progresses. For example, a savings target might rely on a parallel improvement in data or service redesign. Understanding and managing these interdependencies will be critical to ensuring successful implementation.

During the Theory of Change workshops, we discussed an initial set of interdependencies across the programme, particularly in terms of the foundational workstreams 1-4. Work is ongoing within the Scottish Government to identify interdependencies, opportunities for joint working, and ways of addressing shared challenges across the 18 workstreams of the programme.

In addition, there are wider connections to Scottish Government initiatives including the reform of the National Performance Framework (NPF) and the Verity House Agreement (VHA) Accountability and Assurance arrangements, which the PSR Strategy Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning Framework will take into account to ensure consistency and reduce duplication (see Section 2 of this document on the Framework).

5. Mechanisms of Change

A ‘mechanism of change’ describes how and why activities may lead to our intended outcomes. If an action involves delivering a new leadership programme, the mechanism describes how people might engage and react to the programme. Such as, they may develop new skills and knowledge and then feel motivated or incentivised to behave differently.

Mechanisms focus on the underlying drivers, such as motivation, incentives, norms, capability, trust, and collaboration. Understanding these mechanisms ensures that the PSR programme does not focus solely on deliverables, but also on the human and organisational dynamics that enable sustained reform.

As outlined in the fourth section of Figure 1, the PSR Strategy is enabled by four main mechanisms of change. By drawing out these factors it helps to identify what factors might be necessary to achieve the outcomes. These are:

• Culture and workforce
• Enabling Infrastructure, Digital and Data
• Ways of working
• People’s experiences, Trust and Fairness

Together, these mechanisms reflect the core idea that system reform relies on changing behaviours, relationships, incentives, and capabilities as much as it does on delivering new tools or structures.

5.1 Mechanisms of Change - Evidence mapping

This section sets out example evidence sources for each mechanism of change. The evidence presented here is not exhaustive, but it summarises how the mechanisms of change may work in practice and why these are important areas to focus on. To ensure the mechanisms are functioning as intended, we will incorporate this into our Monitoring and Evaluation Framework for the Strategy.

Culture and workforce

Example: Collaborative leadership

Successful implementation of complex reforms depends heavily on leadership capability, collaborative governance, and a supportive organisational culture that enables learning and adaptation.^[5]

Evaluations of interventions such as Operation Modulus (a violence and anti-social behaviour intervention targeted at young people) highlighted the essential role of collaborative leadership to enable partners to work together.

Example: Staff capability

The COM-B behavioural science framework (the most widely used behavioural model in the UK) proposes three necessary components for behaviour change. These are – Capability, Opportunity and Motivation. Considering each of these elements enables a more evidence-informed analysis of the enablers and barriers to behaviour change within a system.^[6]

Enabling Infrastructure, Digital and Data

Example: High quality data and digital systems

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) framework highlights that when data is of high-quality, it becomes increasingly valuable - improving informed decision-making and becoming a driver for innovation and evidence-based policymaking.

Example: Joined up digital service infrastructure

International evidence shows that integrated digital tools are central to successful public service transformation.^[7]

Ways of working

Example: Integrated working

Findings from Scottish Government research into person-centred approaches in the recovery from Covid-19 suggests that co-production is a key element of creating person-centred support, and that engaging with local communities can be ‘instrumental’ in making public services more accessible.

The Scottish Approach to Service Design recognises that engagement with users of public services, and participation in service design from the beginning, is key to building services around users.

People’s experiences, Trust and Fairness

Example: Community involvement

Gathering people’s experiences is essential to effective community engagement. This process enables communities to influence decisions and shape services.^[8]

The Scottish Government has committed to making better use of lived experience and increasing the participation of diverse groups in our policymaking to help drive much-needed systemic change.

Example: Trust

Interactions between the public sector and people should be founded on trust. Yet people’s satisfaction with public services in Scotland is decreasing. It is also known that individuals who rely more on public services experience barriers when trying to access them.^[9]

6. Long-term outcomes

The Public Service Reform programme is expected to achieve a range of long-term outcomes across multiple interacting systems, from individual behaviours and experiences, place-based systems (e.g. Local Authorities) to national level structures. The aim is to change traditional approaches to how public services are delivered and how they work together, to deliver better outcomes for people in Scotland. For example, outcomes relate to the extent an individual might experience a service, have their needs met, and feel supported and empowered.

It is important to note that the PSR Strategy is the Government’s strategy for delivering system change and the realisation of long-term outcomes will be dependent on successful joint working with key partners such as Local Government, public bodies, third sector, trade unions and communities. The full range of outcomes cannot be achieved by Scottish Government alone.

Surrounding people and communities are the workforce, services and infrastructure that deliver the system and which provide the enabling conditions for reform at other levels. At this layer, outcomes involve changes to skills, behaviours, service models and performance. No single service operates in isolation and so outcomes are also strongly rooted in collaborative leadership and working, joint decision making, shared governance, accountability and data sharing.

By reducing resources at different points in the system and increasing it elsewhere will maximise impact. People in Scotland should be able to access good quality and person-centred services that support better health and wellbeing. This will contribute to broader social and economic benefits, including reducing inequality.

In summary, the Theory of Change outlines four long-term outcomes:

1. Improving people’s outcomes and experience of services

2. Improving community services

3. Improving service delivery and financial sustainability

4. Developing the public sector workforce

7. Assumptions and moderating factors

The following assumptions and moderating factors were identified as the things that must be in place to enable delivery and will enable the success of the Public Service Reform (PSR) programme. Some of these assumptions are most material to delivery because they pose the highest political, financial or operation risk if unmet.

7.1 Assumptions - what must be in place for change to happen?

• Political commitment following May 2026 election
• Availability of sufficient SG budget and resources
• Commitment and support to transform systems and ways of working to enable the behaviors and practice required
• Shared understanding and support for the Public Service Reform vision across Scottish Government and the public sector
• Trust and relationships between SG, public bodies and wider stakeholders
• SG and public sector workforce capacity, skills and capability
• Analytical products and policy tools will be engaged with and support wider changes
• PSR outcomes will be fairly distributed and will not widen inequality

7.2 Moderating factors – what will impact our work?

• Collaborative leadership (not ‘top down’), alongside clear ownership and accountability across the programme
• The importance of connecting reform across the system to deliver in places and communities
• Timing, sequencing and prioritisation due to interdependencies across PSR workstreams
• Communication of analysis / impact on decision-making
• Capacity to test and learn across workstreams
• Stakeholder / public engagement, expectations and priorities
• Alignment with wider Scottish Government work, such as the Verity House Agreement and National Performance Framework (NPF) Reform

8. Risks

There are also risks that could prevent activities and outcomes across the Public Service Reform Strategy from being achieved as intended. These include:

8.1 External risks

• Changes in government priorities
• Economic shocks and budget reductions
• Unexpected crisis (for example, a pandemic)

8.2 Operational / delivery risks

• Insufficient staff skills/capacity
• Credibility of Scottish Government in modelling PSR principles
• Duplication and lack of coordination across workstreams
• PSR products and tools do not meet a range of users’ needs
• Data availability and quality
• Ability to capture less tangible outcomes (for example, relating to culture change)

8.3 Resource risks

• Financial backdrop, headcount constraints and resourcing pressures

8.4 Strategic risks

• Lack of system change and removal of barriers at a strategic level
• Ownership becomes fragmented if reform is not embedded as a core responsibility across Scottish Government and public service partners

8.5 Stakeholder and relationship risks

• Resistance to change
• Misalignment of priorities or incentives across sectors
• Workforce capacity pressures and morale risks
• Governance and accountability gaps

8.6 Community engagement

• If people feel excluded or sceptical, reform processes may not feel fair or believable

Conclusion

This section has set out a Theory of Change for the Scottish Government’s Public Service Reform Strategy, supported by a narrative explaining each component, and providing a number of contextual factors that could not be incorporated into the visual model.

This phase one Theory of Change has been developed by the Scottish Government as a tool to:

• support shared understanding of Public Service Reform work across the different government teams involved in delivering each workstream;
• provide clarity on the critical outputs and outcomes, and;
• inform our approach to monitoring and evaluating the Strategy.

This Theory of Change is intentionally high level and therefore has some limitations that should be acknowledged. The PSR Strategy sets out that reform is contingent on action ‘across a system’ involving national and local government, public bodies, the third sector and communities. This Theory of Change cannot fully account for the interdependencies, varied capacities, decisions or behaviours of the wide range of people and organisations who may influence progress towards outcomes.

While the development of this high-level Theory of Change did not involve engagement with partners outside of Scottish Government, this reflects its purpose as an internal starting point. Subsequent phases will involve wider engagement to help surface any dynamics not yet represented, reflect the critical role of our delivery partners and ensure the pathways to change are credible from multiple perspectives.

As with many strategic-level theories of change, this model cannot map every causal step with precision. The current evidence base is still emerging, in part because some workstreams are still in the early design or testing phases. As implementation progresses, further testing will be required. Future evaluation activity will have a role in testing these assumptions, strengthening the evidence base, and refining the casual logic over time.

In summary, this work represents phase one of an ongoing development process. This Theory of Change should be understood as a foundational framework rather than a fixed or final representation of how change will occur.

Next steps

As outlined above, this Theory of Change is informing our development of a Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning Framework for the Public Service Reform Strategy. The ToC identifies key mechanisms of change and longer-term outcomes to measure and test, and to be reported on.

As we develop the Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning Framework, we will build on initial discussions with workstream leads to identify ways to measure progress across the programme, identify existing data sources, and to develop indicators. The next section of this document will expand further on this approach.