Public service reform strategy - theory of change, and monitoring, evaluation and learning framework: update

Summary

This paper provides an update on a Theory of Change for the Scottish Government’s Public Service Reform (PSR) Strategy and our approach and progress to date on developing a Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning Framework. These components will support an evidence informed basis for tracking progress and understanding the impact of the strategy.

In June 2025 the Scottish Government (SG) published its Public Service Reform (PSR) Strategy, and a series of policy commitments to reform public services in order to be more preventative, joined up, and efficient. It also committed to publishing the Scottish Government’s Theory of Change (ToC) and Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning Framework to support the Strategy.

This paper provides an update on a Theory of Change for the Public Service Reform Strategy and our approach and progress to date on developing a Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning (MEL) Framework. It explains the purpose, structure and logic of the ToC and sets out how these components support an evidence informed basis for tracking progress and understanding impact.

Theory of Change

Analysts from the Scottish Government’s Central Analysis Division conducted workshops with lead officials involved in the Public Service Reform Strategy to develop a Theory of Change. Workshops were conducted with Scottish Government analysts and workstream leads across Foundations 1-4 and Pillars 1-3 of the strategy. At this point the aim was to establish a shared internal logic before moving to wider engagement. Stakeholder input will shape subsequent iterations.

The workshops provided the opportunity for attendees to identify expected pathways from inputs and activities within each workstream of the strategy to outputs, mechanisms of change and long-term outcomes, and factors which may affect delivery. These discussions informed the development of a Theory of Change for the PSR Strategy (see Figure 1).

Section 1 of this paper provides an accompanying narrative that explains the logic within the ToC diagram, including what assumptions underpin this work, further detail on issues including external factors and inter-dependencies across the workstreams, and how the workstreams are expected to generate change.

Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning Framework

A Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning Framework for the Public Service Reform Strategy is being developed, based on the Theory of Change. The planned outputs and outcomes for each of the 18 workstreams in the PSR Strategy, as reflected in the Theory of Change, will shape how we monitor, evaluate, and learn from activities across the Strategy as a whole.

Section 2 of this paper sets out our plans, and progress to date, in developing a framework to monitor, evaluate, and learn from the delivery of the Public Service Reform Strategy over a 5-year timeframe from 2025-2030. It is being designed to align with other Scottish Government frameworks (see Figure 2), and will allow us to identify and share good practice and recognise and respond to common challenges across the workstreams. The reporting from this process will be used to shape further improvement and ensure that activities within the PSR Strategy remain relevant, effective and proportionate.

This paper describes what type of indicators will be used to track progress towards the long-term outcomes set out in the Theory of Change for the PSR Strategy, and the approach being taken and progress towards setting indicators for other aspects of the Theory of Change, in order for the framework to serve its purpose in providing a basis for transparent reporting on progress. Using the framework an annual Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning report will be produced from 2027 setting out progress to date.

Next steps

Over coming months work will continue on identifying and assessing indicators appropriate for inclusion in the Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning Framework. This will include targeted engagement with stakeholders and partners in the delivery of the Strategy, and consideration of measurement alignment with the refreshed National Performance Framework and other measurement frameworks. The final indicator set and baseline measurements will be published by autumn 2026, with the first annual PSR Strategy Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning report published by April 2027.