Publication - Research and analysis
Scottish economic bulletin: August 2025
Provides a summary of latest key economic statistics, forecasts and analysis on the Scottish economy.
Data and Forecasts Summary
Outturn Data
| Indicator | Latest Data | Next Release | Timeseries | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | June | |||
| GDP growth (3-month rolling %) | -0.4% (May) | 27 August | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.4 | n/a |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 3.7% (Mar - May) | 12 August | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.7 | n/a |
| Real Earnings growth (YoY %) | 1.7%
(June) |
12 August | 2.1 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Inflation rate (CPI YoY %) | 3.6%
(June) |
20 August | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.6 |
| BoE Base Rate (%) | 4.25%
(June) |
7 August | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.25 |
| Consumer Sentiment (Index) | -6.9 (June) | 27 August | -2.1 | -5.7 | -5.7 | -8.0 | -14.3 | -5.5 | -6.9 |
Forecasts
| Indicator | Organsiation | Date of Forecast | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (YoY %) | SFC | May 2025 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Unemployment rate (%) | SFC | May 2025 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| Nominal Average Earnings growth (YoY %) | SFC | May 2025 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| Inflation rate (4Q rate in Q4) | BoE | May 2025 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | n/a |
Contact
Email: economic.statistics@gov.scot