Scottish Budget - provisional outturn 2025-2026: briefing note - 18 June 2026
The overall provisional fiscal outturn for 2025-26 is £55.9 billion against a total fiscal budget of £56.3 billion. The Scottish Government (SG) is not permitted by Treasury to overspend its budget. The remaining underspend of £358 million, carried forward in full in the Scotland Reserve.
Scottish Income Tax
5. The Scottish Parliament set the following rates and bands of Scottish Income Tax for 2025-26:
| Band | Income Range | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Starter Rate | £12,571 - £15,397 | 19% |
| Basic Rate | £15,398 - £27,491 | 20% |
| Intermediate Rate | £27,492 - £43,662 | 21% |
| Higher Rate | £43,663 - £75,000 | 42% |
| Advanced Rate | £75,001 - £125,140 | 45% |
| Top Rate | Above £125,140 | 48% |
6. For 2025-26 we have used the Scottish Fiscal Commission’s forecast for Scottish Income Tax receipts of £20.477 billion which they produced in December 2024 to support the annual budget.
7. According to the forecasts available at Scottish Budget 2026-27, the net position in 2025-26 is expected to have increased to +£913 million. At the time the 2025-26 Scottish Budget was set the net position was forecast to be +£838 million. This means there has been a £75 million increase in the net of the forecast for Scottish Income Tax and the corresponding Block Grant Adjustment. This forecast improvement, however, has no impact on our spending power in 2025-26 as final figures for Income Tax are “locked in” until outturn becomes available. Should final outturn figures turn out to be higher or lower than originally forecast, the impact will be deferred to the 2028-29 Budget via the reconciliation process.
8. The forecasts available at Scottish Budget 2026-27 suggested a small positive reconciliation for 2028-29, however this is very sensitive to small changes in relative tax receipt growth performance over time.
Contact
Email: Corporate.reporting@gov.scot