Scottish Budget 2026-27, Spending Review and Infrastructure Delivery Pipeline: strategic integrated impact assessment

Annex C Intersectional Analysis Pilot Study Results

As part of this year’s budget process, portfolios were asked to take part in a pilot exercise gathering evidence on intersectional gender impacts, using the example of minority ethnic women. This built on research published at the end of 2024 on the experiences of minority ethnic women living in Scotland.^[81]

Drawing on the approach set out in guidance on budget decisions, developed in conjunction with the Equality and Human Rights Budget Advisory Group, portfolios were asked to consider four issues in relation to minority ethnic women – the outcomes expected to be achieved by the portfolio budget, what we know about existing inequalities, potential impacts of budget changes, and plans for evaluation.^[82] This exercise will be evaluated as part of a wider process evaluation in early 2026.

This annex highlights some of the evidence gathered from across the portfolios.

Outcomes for minority ethnic women the portfolios are aiming to achieve

Many of the outcomes are not necessarily exclusively targeted at minority ethnic women, but they are one of a number of groups who are expected to benefit. For example:

• Within the Social Justice portfolio, the Equality and Human Rights Fund contributes to eight long-term outcomes, all of which are relevant to improving the outcomes for minority ethnic women, such as greater awareness and better remedy of rights, and stronger participation. Other programmes include Equally Safe, Fairer Futures Partnership, Tackling Child Poverty and the Equality Evidence Strategy.
• In Health and Social Care; the race equality framework tackles physical and mental health, while the Women’s Health Plan is informed by evidence, and an intersectional approach, and aims to benefit all women. In relation to mental health, minority ethnic women are considered to be an “at risk” group and the Adult Communities Mental Health and Wellbeing Fund continues to support tackling social isolation and loneliness. Investment in Community Health Workers for the Gypsy/Traveller community aims to improve outcomes for the Gypsy/Traveller community.
• In Justice and Home Affairs, outcomes include keeping communities safe, secure and resilient, and for women and girls to be safe, respected and live free from all forms of violence and exploitation.
• Education outcomes included those relating to educational participation and segregation, and the need for childcare, while Transport outcomes included fair access to services, including minority ethnic women.
• In Economy, outcomes included those relating to fair work, payment of the Real Living Wage, encouragement of employers through the anti-racism employment strategy, and entrepreneurship through the Pathways Fund.

What is known about existing inequalities of outcome for minority ethnic women

Research on the experiences of minority ethnic women in Scotland found that minority ethnic women experience discrimination, racial prejudice and bias in recruitment, education, training and development, pay, under-employment, workplace culture, and their caring responsibilities.^[83] Minority ethnic women may face barriers to feeling included in conversations that impact their pay and working conditions or other areas that impact collective agreement or perceived employee voice.

The above research also highlighted inequalities in relation to education, financial hardship during the pandemic, experiences in accessing healthcare, connections to and representation in communities, as well as violence, safety and experience of harassment and discrimination.

Other sources, including that gathered from portfolios, note for example that:

• Both women and minority ethnic groups have higher rates of economic inactivity compared to men and white ethnic groups.^[84]
• In 2022, the gap between male and female employment rates for minority ethnic groups was 8.0 percentage points, showing that minority ethnic men have a higher employment rate than minority ethnic women. In comparison, this gap was only 3.1 percentage points between white women and white men.^[85]
• In 2019, the median hourly pay for employed minority ethnic women was £9.66 and for employed white women was £11.53, amounting to an ethnicity pay gap of 16.2 per cent.^[86]
• Children in the Scottish Government “priority groups” are more likely than average to be in relative poverty.^[87] Minority ethnic families make up one of the priority groups, and 37 per cent are in relative poverty.^[88]

Impacts of potential budget decisions upon minority ethnic women

This was a pilot exercise to explore the value and feasibility of this approach. Information was requested from portfolios in summer and autumn 2025, prior to final allocations being known.

While many budget measures will benefit this group, some are expected to have a disproportionately positive impact:

• The package of measures to prioritise the eradication of child poverty (see Section 4.1 on Eradicating Child Poverty).
• Continued funding for victim and witness support.
• Maintaining funding in the Employability programme.

Plans for evaluation of impacts

Evaluations have either been commissioned, or evaluation frameworks are being developed for many of the programmes and activities highlighted by portfolios. In some cases the impacts for minority ethnic women will be assessed, including, for example, for school-age childcare. Additional, bespoke intersectional analysis on minority ethnic women will also be undertaken in addition to the routine monitoring Transport Scotland undertakes, subject to robust data being available.

Other portfolios highlighted that to evaluate the impact of budget decisions on this group, future evaluations should incorporate intersectional data collection and analysis, including demographic breakdowns of beneficiaries and barriers to access. Engagement with minority ethnic women and representative organisations would also strengthen qualitative understanding of lived experience and help shape inclusive delivery.