Scottish Budget 2026-27, Spending Review and Infrastructure Delivery Pipeline: strategic integrated impact assessment

Annex A Child Rights and Wellbeing Impact Assessment

Child Rights and Wellbeing Impact Assessment (CRWIA) for the Scottish Budget 2026-27, the Scottish Spending Review and the Infrastructure Delivery Pipeline

Disclaimer

This document is a point in time assessment of the likely effects of the above-named proposal on the rights and wellbeing of children and young people. This impact assessment should be read in conjunction with other impact assessments prepared for this proposal.

Scottish Government acknowledge the importance of monitoring and evaluating the impact of strategic decisions and legislation on children’s rights and wellbeing. Any information gathered during implementation of the legislation or strategic decision to which the impact assessment relates, will be used to inform future determinations of impact. Any new strategic decision or new legislation (including amending legislation) would be subject to a new CRWIA in line with the legislative requirements.

Child Rights and Wellbeing Impact Assessment

1. Brief Summary

Type of proposal:

• Decisions of a strategic nature relating to the rights and wellbeing of children

Name the proposal, and describe its overall aims and intended purpose.

The proposals are the Scottish Budget Statement 2026-27, the Scottish Spending Review (SSR) and the Infrastructure Delivery Pipeline (IDP), which together represent decisions of a strategic nature relating, in part, to the rights and wellbeing of children.

The Scottish Budget allocates public money but does not always direct how that money should be spent, given that a significant share of decision-making is devolved to local authorities. Local authorities have the autonomy to allocate budgets based on local needs and priorities.

Start date of proposal’s development:

The Budget process is continuous and year-round but is informed by medium term forecasts and priorities identified within the Programme for Government, which was announced in Parliament on 6 May 2025. This year the Budget is accompanied by a multi-year SSR and IDP.

The SSR sets out the planned trajectory for the public finances to 2028-29 for resource spending, and to 2029-30 for capital spending and was published on 13 January 2026. The IDP sets out the infrastructure projects and programmes that will be funded from the spending decisions made in the SSR and was also published on 13 January 2026.

Start date of CRWIA process:

14 October 2025.

2. With reference given to the requirements of the UNCRC (Incorporation) (Scotland) Act 2024, which aspects of the proposal are relevant to/impact upon children’s rights?

The realisation of children’s rights requires the mobilisation, allocation, and targeted expenditure of public funds to deliver on a wide range of commitments. Therefore, many aspects of the Scottish Budget 2026-27 Statement, the SSR and the IDP are likely to directly and indirectly impact children and young people. The proposed spend for each Ministerial portfolio will therefore impact on the extent to which children’s rights can be adequately resourced and realised for the purposes of the Scottish Ministers complying with Article 4 of the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child (UNCRC) requirements (as incorporated into Scots law) in terms of achieving sufficient public resources for the realisation of children’s rights.

Decisions about budget allocations and multi-year capital and resource spending plans have the potential to impact on all of the 42 substantive UNCRC Articles as amended for incorporation into Scots law as ‘the UNCRC requirements’ in the Schedule of the UNCRC (Incorporation) (Scotland) Act 2024. In addition, taxation decisions as set out in the Budget Statement also have the ability to impact children and young people.

3. Please provide a summary of the evidence gathered which will be used to inform your decision-making and the content of the proposal

Portfolio evidence. Portfolios were asked to carry out a strategic integrated assessment across five statutory duties (Public Sector Equality Duty and the related Scottish specific duties, Fairer Scotland Duty, Consumer Duty, Child Rights and Wellbeing Impact Assessment (CRWIA), and Island Communities Impact Assessment). Portfolios were also asked to assess a sample of Scottish Government Division or Unit budget lines (Level 4) against relevant protected characteristics, which included age.

Specifically, for the CRWIA, Portfolios were asked to consider whether changes to their proposed budget lines (increasing, decreasing or remaining the same once the effects of inflation or changes in demand have been taken into account) at Ministerial Portfolio level (Level 2), Scottish Government Directorate level (Level 3), and if necessary Scottish Government Division or Unit level (Level 4), had a potentially positive, negative or neutral impact on children’s rights. If an impact was considered to be negative, they were asked to assess whether that could result in a potential incompatibility with the UNCRC requirements (as incorporated). The responsibility for individual impact assessments for policy delivery sits with each policy team and they would have been able to draw on any CRWIA produced for individual spending decisions and any engagement with young people that had taken place at the policy development stage.

Distributional analysis of tax, welfare and selected areas of resource spending was also considered. This included analysis by different family type, including children - specifically lone parents, large families and families with a child under one.

A Child Poverty tagging pilot was also undertaken, which attempted to identify spending most likely to materially influence child poverty outcomes.

The analysis also drew on a review of wider evidence, including evaluation findings, previous impact assessments conducted by the Scottish Government, strategic integrated impact assessments produced outwith Scotland, and other relevant external research.

A Ministerial workshop was held in November 2025 that included a focus on child poverty, which allowed the cross-cutting cumulative impact of potential budgetary decisions on children to be considered.

Engagement with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the National Advisory Council on Women and Girls, and the Equality and Human Rights Budget Advisory Group helped to shape the integrated assessment approach conducted this year in relation to the Budget 2026-27, the SSR and IDP.

In addition, the Scottish Government has an ongoing commitment to making sure that the voices of children and young people are heard at the highest levels of Government. A key mechanism for this is annual meetings between children and young people, the Scottish Government Executive Team (the senior leaders of Government) and Cabinet (the First Minister, Deputy First Minister and all of the Cabinet Secretaries). This year’s Cabinet meeting with children and young people (represented by members of the Children’s Parliament and the Scottish Youth Parliament) took place in November 2025, prior to final budget allocation decisions being taken and before the CRWIAs for the Budget Statement and for the Budget Bill were finalised. At that meeting, members of the Scottish Youth Parliament highlighted the key issues concerning young people as: ending gender-based violence; investing in and protecting youth work services and increasing mental health training and support. Members of the Children’s Parliament highlighted as their ‘calls to action’: the climate crisis education; vaping; bullying and mental health in schools.

4. Further to the evidence described at ‘3’ have you identified any 'gaps' in evidence which may prevent determination of impact? If yes, please provide an explanation of how they will be addressed

There were no gaps in evidence that prevented the determination of overall impact of the Scottish Budget Statement 2026-27, the SSR or the IDP. However, as and when decisions are made about the delivery of the commitments that are relevant to children’s rights, further engagement with children and young people should be carried out and, as the details of the proposals develop, individual CRWIAs will be required in relation to relevant strategic decisions and proposed legislation at the appropriate time.

5. Analysis of Evidence

The evidence collected suggests that the Scottish Budget Statement 2026-27, the SSR and the IDP are likely to have an overall positive impact on children and young people, with any negative impacts from individual policy decisions likely to be offset by overall positive impacts and mitigations applied as necessary.

Overview

The resource allocations for the Budget and the Resource Spending Review prioritise Health and Social Care and Social Security spending with above inflation increases across all years, recognising the role of this spending in supporting living standards, addressing inequality, and reducing poverty. These decisions also support the realisation of children’s rights under UNCRC Articles 24, 26 and 27 which are, respectively the right to: the highest attainable standard of health and access to healthcare services and facilities; benefit from social security (where appropriate, taking into account the child and their parents’/guardians’ resources and circumstances); and a standard of living which is adequate for the child's physical, mental, spiritual, moral and social development.

Taxation

We do not expect decisions on taxation to have a significant impact on children’s rights. Decisions to freeze Higher, Advanced and Top Rate Income Tax thresholds only affect taxpayers with earnings above the national average while the savings from uprating the Basic and Intermediate Rate Income Tax thresholds are small as a share of taxpayers’ income.

The impact of the Scottish Budget Statement 2026-27, the SSR and the IDP against each government priority are set out below:

Eradicating Child Poverty

The substantial investment in this policy package, as set out in section 4 of the Strategic Integrated Impact Assessment (SIIA) of which this CRWIA is an Annex, is likely to strengthen access to a range of children’s rights, including those enshrined in Articles 2 and 6(2) (as incorporated into Scots law) which are about: non-discrimination, and ensuring to the maximum extent possible the survival and development of children.

Policy measures addressing the three key drivers of poverty - funding inflationary uplifts to benefits including the Scottish Child Payment; a universal breakfast offer; maintaining funding for employability programmes, free school meals and concessionary fares; and investment in affordable housing - also support access to children’s rights, mainly through Articles 18, 23, 24, 26 and 27 of the UNCRC requirements, which relate, respectively to: giving appropriate assistance to parents and legal guardians, who have the primary responsibility for raising their children, to assist parents and legal guardians in performing their responsibilities; the rights of disabled children; the right to the highest attainable standard of health and access to healthcare services and facilities, including through public authorities pursuing the full implementation of this right by taking appropriate measures to combat disease and malnutrition, including through provision of adequate nutritious food; the right to benefit from social security (where appropriate, taking into account the child and their parents’/guardians’ resources and circumstances); and the right to a standard of living which is adequate for the child's physical, mental, spiritual, moral and social development.

Safeguarding funding for Early Learning and Childcare and Colleges is expected to have a positive impact on access to children’s rights under Articles 28 and 29 of the UNCRC requirements, which are about the right of a child to education and rights in relation to the aims of education, including that the education of a child should be directed towards the development of every child’s personality, talents and abilities to their fullest potential.

Investment into a ‘Summer of Sport’ is expected to have a positive impact under Article 31 (the right to rest and leisure, to play and recreation, and to participate in culture and the arts).

A full suite of impact assessments is being undertaken for the new Tackling Child Poverty Delivery Plan.

Growing the Economy

The policy decisions in Scottish Budget Statement 2026-27, the SSR, and IDP, as set out in section 4 of the SIIA, contribute to: removing barriers to parental employment, higher wages, job stability, and improved living standards. Therefore, they have the potential to positively impact on access to rights in relation to Article 27 (the right to a standard of living which is adequate for the child's physical, mental, spiritual, moral and social development). The increased availability of cultural opportunities for young children through additional investment in the culture sector, including additional funding for Creative Scotland, will positively contribute to access to rights under Article 31 (the right to rest and leisure, to play and recreation, and to participate in culture and the arts).

Tackling the Climate Emergency

While there is no right to a healthy environment under the UNCRC requirements, feedback received from representatives of children and young people (Members of the Children’s Parliament) has identified education on the climate crisis as an area of concern for children and young people (see the evidence outlined in question 3).

Children’s rights are supported across this priority and therefore there is a potentially positive impact related to spending on climate change action and nature restoration in strengthening access to the right under Article 31 (the right to rest and leisure, to play and recreation, and to participate in culture and the arts).

Ensuring High Quality and Sustainable Public Services

The above inflation increase in Health spending, specifically investment in primary and community health services and mental health services ensures that the Government can provide high quality healthcare, strengthening children’s access to their rights in: Article 6 (the right to life and, to the maximum extent possible, to survival and development); Article 12 (respect for the views of child); Article 24 (the right to enjoyment of the highest attainable standard of health and access to healthcare services and facilities); and Article 39 (recovery from trauma and reintegration). The importance of mental health services to young people has also been reflected in the six calls to action of the Children’s Parliament at the end of 2025.

Further investment in education, including through the attainment challenge and additional funding for colleges, is expected to have a positive impact on access to children’s rights in Articles 28 and 29, which are respectively about the right to education and about the aims of education, including that the education of children should be directed towards the development of every child’s personality, talents and abilities to their fullest potential.

Funding in the Justice and Home Affairs portfolio, and Local Government which will continue to provide a range of services that support and protect vulnerable people including children, such as police and community justice, and a range of initiatives to better support victims and witnesses, including Bairns Hoose, the Victim Centred Approach Fund, which will support an integrated, trauma-informed response for those children who are victims of or witnesses to abuse are likely to improve access to rights in Articles 19 and 33: respectively, the duty of public authorities take all appropriate legislative, administrative, social and educational measures to protect children from all forms of violence, injury or abuse, neglect and bad treatment while in the care of their parents or anyone else who looks after them; the duty of public authorities to take all appropriate measures, including legislative, administrative, social and educational measures to protect children from the illegal use of drugs.

6. What changes (if any) have been made to the proposal as a result of this assessment?

The content of the Budget 2026-27 Statement, the SSR and the IDP have been considered through the usual Cabinet process and updated to take account of relevant inputs as the document and assessments have been developed. Monitoring and evaluation of new and existing policies will be carried out during policy implementation, with new evidence and adaptations considered as necessary.

Conclusion

7. As a result of the evidence gathered and analysed against all UNCRC requirements, what is the potential overall impact of this proposal on children’s rights?

Positive. The substantial investment in the child poverty package and spending that benefits all children – including on social security, measures to support families with the cost of living such as the universal free breakfast offer or the Summer of Sport, free school meals, early learning and childcare, and employability programmes - alongside above inflation uplifts to Health and Social Security expenditure is likely to be positive for child rights. This is likely to offset any negative impacts from reductions and constrained growth in other portfolios, both in 2026-27 and beyond.

8. If you have identified a positive impact on children’s rights, please describe below how the proposal will protect, respect, and fulfil children’s rights in Scotland.

There are likely to be many positive impacts on children’s rights as a result of the Budget Statement 2026-27, the SSR and the IDP, which would support access to the rights in Articles 2, 6, 12, 18, 19, 23, 24, 26, 27, 28, 29, 31, 33, and 39.

9. If a negative impact has been identified please describe it below. Is there a risk this could potentially amount to an incompatibility?

In order to ensure that resources are redirected where they are needed most and further advance equality of opportunity, some re-prioritisation of spend has been required. This means that for some portfolios, funding has been reduced or has not kept pace with inflation in 2026-27 or over the SSR period.

As explained further below, while some negative impacts have been identified against access to the rights in: Article 24 (right to the highest attainable standard of health and access to healthcare services and facilities), Article 26 (the right to benefit from social security (where appropriate, taking into account the child and their parents’/guardians’ resources and circumstances), Article 27 (the right to a standard of living which is adequate for the child's physical, mental, spiritual, moral and social development), Article 28 (Right to education) and Article 31 (the right to rest and leisure, to play and recreation, and to participate in culture and the arts), these are not considered to be significant when considered against the mitigation in place.

No risks of potential incompatibilities with the UNCRC requirements (as incorporated) have been identified across all portfolios as part of the impact assessment for the Scottish Budget 2026-27 Statement, the SSR and the IDP.

Mitigation Record

What options have been considered to modify the proposal in order to mitigate a negative impact or potential incompatibility?

Mitigating actions are set out below. As this assessment accompanies a draft Budget, there is also an opportunity for the Scottish Parliament to consider any proposed mitigations through the usual budget process for this year, and through the annual budget process for subsequent years of the SSR period.

Issue or risk identified and relevant UNCRC requirement

Some risk of negative impacts in relation to access to rights under Articles 26, 27 and 31 have been identified from a reduction to the regeneration budget which is being reduced from £62 million to £47 million. These programmes improve access to services in disadvantaged communities. Resource funding has had a direct impact supporting delivery of services including for example family support, children’s activities, free meal provision, pre- and after-school care, affordable childcare, and support for children disengaged from education.

Action Taken / To Be Taken

This reduction could be more than offset by £120 million of child poverty spending - including on employability, transport, or whole family support. In addition, support for free school meals has been maintained and a universal breakfast offer is being made.

Within the Deputy First Minister, Economy and Gaelic portfolio, the impact of this reduction will be mitigated as far as possible from 2026-27 for resource budget through investment in increasing the capacity of community organisations, increasing the opportunities for diversifying income generation and reducing reliance on grant funding. This alongside greater alignment of resource support to capital investment supporting place-based community led regeneration will maximise the impact of the available budget, which taken together will contribute to strengthening local economies in disadvantaged places creating new jobs and economic opportunity. In managing the reduced capital allocation from 2026-27, previous funding programmes have been brought together into a single fund, reviewing longer-term delivery to maximise the outcomes of the available investment budget. Additionally, there are a range of other measures delivered through Scottish Government, UK Government and by Local Authorities that deliver support for disadvantaged communities which mitigate the budget reductions in this policy area.

Date action to be taken or was taken

Mitigating action will take effect from the next financial year (2026-27), should the Budget Bill pass successfully through the Scottish Parliament.

Issue or risk identified and relevant UNCRC requirement

The published CRWIA on the strategic workforce position, which is to reduce the devolved public sector workforce by 0.5 per cent per year on average, highlighted both positive and negative impacts.^[75] The loss of employment could potentially impact parents’ or carers’ ability to provide an adequate standard of living with a potential negative impact on children’s access to rights in Article 27 (adequate standard of living). Children are also users of public services including schools, early learning and childcare, and paediatric healthcare which might impact their access to rights under Articles 24 (health and health services), Article 28 (right to education) and Article 31 (leisure, play and culture) if the workforce reductions impact service delivery. However, the stated intention to protect frontline roles will reduce this risk. Moreover, if delivered as intended, productivity gains and efficiencies will have positive outcomes for children’s rights and wellbeing which will fully or partially offset the potential negative impacts identified, through better joined up public services.

Action Taken / To Be Taken

For potential mitigations against workforce reductions in the public sector, parents whose employment is at risk will have access to redeployment opportunities and advice as well as access to voluntary severance schemes. The over-riding approach will be on prioritising front line services, where possible which should provide some protection for the services that children and young people access. Should there be impact on service delivery, there are a number of mitigations already in place, including the continued focus on tackling child poverty to help low-income families with children under 16.

Date action to be taken or was taken

Mitigating action will take effect from the next financial year (2026-27), should the Budget Bill pass successfully through the Scottish Parliament.

10. As a result of the evidence gathered and analysed against all wellbeing indicators, will the proposal contribute to the wellbeing of children and young people in Scotland

Safe: Yes

Healthy: Yes

Achieving: Yes

Nurtured: Yes

Active: Yes

Respected: Yes

Responsible: Yes

Included: Yes

If yes, please provide an explanation below:

Children’s rights and their wellbeing are intrinsically linked and mutually reinforcing. The broad scope of the decisions made within the Scottish Budget Statement 2026-27, the SSR and the IDP and resulting overall positive impact on children’s rights, in turn contributes to a positive impact on children and young people’s wellbeing via UNCRC Articles 2, 6, 12, 18, 19, 23, 24, 26, 27, 28, 29, 31, 33, and 39.

11. How will you communicate to children and young people the impact that the proposal will have on their rights?

This CRWIA has been published as part of the SIIA on the Scottish Government website (gov.scot). A separate CRWIA was produced for the Budget Bill when it was introduced.

At the individual policy level, relevant teams will continue to ensure that children and young people who engaged with the Scottish Government and highlighted their priorities are made aware of both this CRWIA, and of the role and purpose of CRWIAs in individual policy delivery.

Post Assessment Review and sign-off

12. Planning for the review of impact on children’s rights and wellbeing

Ongoing monitoring of the impact on children’s rights of the various commitments in the Scottish Budget Statement 2026-27, the SSR and the IDP will be undertaken by the portfolios responsible for their delivery.

13. Sign off

Policy Lead Signature & Date of Sign Off: Exchequer Analysis Unit, 9 January 2026

Deputy Director Signature & Date of Sign Off: Simon Fuller, 10 January 2026

Date CRWIA team first contacted: 04 August 2025