1 National Institute for Economic and Social Research
2 https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-place-europe-people-jobs-investment/. see the Technical Annex in Scotland’s Place in Europe: People, Jobs and Investment for the assumptions made on exports, productivity and Foreign Direct Investment.
3 The Prime Minister’s Lancaster House Speech on 17 January 2017, “… I want us to have reached an agreement about our future partnership by the time the 2-year Article 50 process has concluded.” [https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-governments-negotiating-objectives-for-exiting-the-eu-pm-speech]
4 The Prime Ministers visit to Scotland on 15 July 2016, during which she also said she would not: “be triggering Article 50 until [she thinks] that we have a UK approach and objectives for negotiations - [she thought] it is important that we establish that before we trigger Article 50."
7 Slide presented by Michel Barnier, 15 December 2017 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/slide_presented_by_barnier_at_euco_15-12-2017.pdf
9 See the Technical Annex in Scotland’s Place in Europe: People, Jobs and Investment for the assumptions made on exports, productivity and Foreign Direct Investment.
10 Export Statistics Scotland 2016 (January 2018) https://www2.gov.scot/Resource/0053/00530678.pdf
11 The future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union (United Kingdom Government, July 2018) https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-future-relationship-between-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union
12 Export Statistics Scotland 2016 (January 2018) https://www2.gov.scot/Resource/0053/00530678.pdf
13 Scotland's role in the development of future UK trade arrangements (2018)
14 Scottish Government (2017) Exports Statistics Scotland and SG Calculations
15 HMRC Regional Trade Statistics https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/regional-trade-statistics-interactive-analysis-second-quarter-2018
16 HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics, 2017
24 As outlined by Jon Thompson, chief executive of HMRC, in his evidence to Westminster Treasury Select Committee on 23 May 18.
25 Baseline – no change
26 modelled as Free Trade Agreement
Email: Ellen Leaver