Publication - Corporate report
Scotland's place in Europe: assessment of UK Government's proposed future relationship with the EU
Our assessment of the UK Government's proposed future relationship with the EU.
Annex: Comparison Table
| EU membership | The Prime Minister’s Proposed Brexit deal | |
|---|---|---|
| Scotland better or worse off? (£) - in 2016 cash prices |
Growth remains on track[25] | Loss equivalent to £1,610 per person in Scotland[26] compared to EU membership (by 2030) |
| Impact on business investment % change |
Investment remains on track | 7.7% lower compared to EU membership (by 2030) |
| Northern Ireland backstop, will apply from 2021 unless the UK and EU can agree how to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland and protect the GFA | Current arrangements, so no need for a backstop |
A special deal for Northern Ireland will put Scotland at a serious competitive disadvantage |
| Imports and exports → 6,800 Scottish companies export to the EU → More than 10,000 companies rely on imports from the EU |
Full access to the EU market |
More border checks and regulatory requirements for goods will be inevitable outside single market, and service exports will be substantially restricted |
| Services, which account for 75% of Scotland’s economy |
Full access to EU market | Limitations to service suppliers’ ability to operate cross border, meaning export of services will be severely hindered |
| People In the event of 50% less EU migration, Scotland’s working age population would be projected to decline by 1% |
Free movement of people, to meet Scotland’s need for workers for example in research, health, care, and remote rural areas |
Likely to include an end to free movement, with severe implications for key economic, health and care sectors, plus long term effects on Scotland’s population growth and age profile |
| Social and Environmental Standards | High standards and protections, for example for the environment, food safety, animal welfare, health and safety, equality and working conditions | No guarantee that the UK will maintain the same high standards in future. |
| Collaboration |
Scotland to continue to benefit from punching ‘above its weight’ from EU funding programmes and initiatives such as Horizon 2020 and Erasmus+ | Little guarantee that these opportunities and benefits will be maintained as part of the future relationship |
Contact
Email: Ellen Leaver
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