Scotland-India Strategic Market Insight Report
The Scotland-India Strategic Market Insight Report provides an independent, evidence-based assessment of the Indian market, identifying where Scotland's key sectors, capabilities and export strengths align with India's current and future demand.
3. Concentrated gains for Scotland
For Scotland, CETA's value is concentrated in areas where the country already has brand recognition or specialist capability. The long-term annual gross value-added gain is estimated at £190-220 million, equivalent to around 0.12-0.14% of the Scottish economy.[22] The strongest near-term opportunities sit in whisky, salmon, aerospace and advanced manufacturing, while wider gains are possible in premium food, digital and financial services.
Scotch whisky is the most immediate beneficiary. India imported £286 million of Scotch whisky in 2025, equivalent to about 220 million bottles.[23] With tariffs falling to 75% immediately and then to 40% over ten years, the Scottish opportunity is estimated at an additional £240 million in whisky-specific exports.[24] Lower tariffs should improve the viability of premium distribution, bottling and maturation partnerships, although state excise rules and route-to-market choices will remain decisive.
Scottish salmon gains duty-free access. With India's affluent consumer base expanding and demand for premium proteins increasing, annual exports could reach £50-100 million within five years and support 200-300 jobs in rural Scottish communities.[25] The opportunity is commercially attractive, but it depends on cold-chain resilience, technical standards, labelling flexibility and access to premium retail and hospitality channels.
Aerospace and manufacturing gain from lower duties on aircraft, vehicles and transport equipment. Estimated duty savings of £54.3 million could support 150-200% growth in Scottish aerospace exports to India and potentially attract around £500 million in inward investment over a decade.[26] The strongest opportunity is not only to export equipment, but to participate in joint ventures, local supply chains and India's manufacturing expansion.
Other food and drink products can broaden Scotland's premium export base. Tariffs on soft drinks fall from 33% to zero, creating openings for gin, soft drinks, shortbread, chocolates, speciality foods and selected meat products. The additional annual opportunity is estimated at £20-50 million. Together, these gains show why Scotland should use whisky as an entry point, but not as the limit of its India proposition.
| Export Sector | CETA Benefit |
|---|---|
| Scotch Whisky | Tariff to be phased down to 40% over 10 years +£700 million boost to UK exports[28] Scotland accounts for ~74% share of UK beverage; could add +£240 million in whisky exports; |
| Scottish Salmon | Duty-free access under CETA Scottish salmon exports could reach £50–100 million annually within five years |
| Aerospace and manufacturing | ~£54.3 million duty savings Supports Scotland’s advanced manufacturing sector 150–200% Scottish aerospace exports growth |
| Other Food and Beverages | Opportunities for gin, soft drinks, shortbread, chocolates and specialty food products Tariffs on soft drinks reduced from 33% to 0% |
Contact
Email: Monika.Wieckowska@gov.scot