Scotland-India Strategic Market Insight Report

Annex 2

Methodology by Sector

India–Scotland bilateral trade estimates across the four UKIBC priority sector workstreams have been developed using a robust proxy-based methodology. As no single official data source provides bilateral trade values at the required level of sectoral granularity, the estimates draw on the best available evidence, including UK–India trade statistics, HMRC and Scottish Government regional trade data, and relevant industry association datasets. These are apportioned to Scotland using appropriate sectoral proxies and benchmark ratios, before being projected to 2030 under three growth scenarios – Conservative, Central and Aggressive – based on compound annual growth rate (CAGR) assumptions.

A. Life Sciences

Estimation approach: The FY 2025 estimate is derived by applying a judgement-based sector share of 10–20%, reflecting pharmaceuticals, chemicals, biotechnology collaboration and Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization (CDMO) activity, to the estimated £1.05 billion India – Scotland bilateral goods trade. As the underlying methodology does not publish a 2030 sector value, FY2030 estimates are projected from the FY2025 baseline using the Conservative, Central and Aggressive CAGR scenarios outlined below.

Growth and FY30 scenarios: The FY 2025 baseline is estimated at £210 million. Projected to 2030, this equates to £299.4 million under the Conservative scenario (7.4% CAGR), £399.9 million under the Central scenario (13.75% CAGR), and £520.4 million under the Aggressive scenario (19.9% CAGR).

Given that CETA has formally come into force from 15^th July 2026, UKIBC would suggest a central CAGR of 13.8% with an estimated bilateral trade in Life Sciences of ~£400 million by FY 2030.

Key caveat: No official statistical series reports India–Scotland Life Sciences trade at the required level of granularity. Accordingly, the sector estimate is based on a judgement-led allocation of the broader India–Scotland goods trade, informed by industry activity and market evidence. The FY2020 back-cast is derived from the FY2025 baseline and will therefore adjust automatically if the Central CAGR assumption is revised.

Source: Consulate General of India bilateral trade data; UKIBC sector-share assumption (Tier 3 provenance).

B. Technology and Digital Economy

Estimation approach: The Technology and Digital Economy trade estimate is predominantly services-based, covering IT consulting, software development, business process management (BPM), fintech and telecommunications services. Scotland's share is estimated by applying a 7.5% allocation to the corresponding India–UK IT-BPM and telecom services trade, reflecting Scotland's relative contribution within the UK. Bilateral trade flows are assumed to comprise approximately 90% India-to-Scotland exports and 10% Scotland-to-India exports, consistent with prevailing sector dynamics.

Growth and FY30 scenarios: The FY2020 baseline is estimated at £825 million, increasing to £1.238 billion in FY2025, equivalent to an implied 8.5% CAGR. Projected to 2030, bilateral trade reaches £1.58 billion under the Conservative scenario (5% CAGR), £1.99 billion under the Central scenario (10% CAGR), and £2.49 billion under the Aggressive scenario (15% CAGR).

UKIBC estimates a projected bilateral trade of £1.9 billion under normal CAGR of 10%, with a balanced growth from sustained global digital demand and steady collaborations.

Key caveat: The 7.5% Scotland share is a judgement-based scaling factor applied to the corresponding India–UK digital and technology services trade and should not be interpreted as an official published statistic. As bilateral trade in this sector is overwhelmingly services-led, goods trade has been excluded from the methodology, and the estimates therefore represent services trade only.

Source: ONS, NASSCOM and MeitY IT-BPM/telecom export data (India total $147bn FY20, $224bn FY25 projected); Tier 2 provenance (UK-level total apportioned to Scotland).

C. Energy

Estimation approach: The methodology retains two complementary estimation passes, each serving a distinct analytical purpose. Pass 2 (bottom-up estimation) derives the FY2020 and FY2025 baseline values by applying an estimated 25–60% energy commodity share to the broader Scotland–India goods trade. Pass 1 (partnership bifurcation) then allocates the Pass 2 Central FY2030 projection across four strategic partnership categories: Integrated Value Chains (40%), Strategic Joint Ventures (30%), Premium Exports (20%), and Innovation Collaboration (10%). The two passes are designed to ensure internal consistency within the model and should be interpreted as complementary analytical steps rather than independent validation exercises.

Growth and FY30 scenarios: The FY2025 baseline is estimated at £265 million. Projected to 2030, bilateral trade reaches £330 million under the Conservative scenario (4.5% CAGR), £380 million under the Central scenario (7.5% CAGR), and £519 million under the Aggressive scenario (14.4% CAGR).

UKIBC estimates a 7.5% CAGR to £380 million bilateral trade in energy sector as the rollout of UK-India CETA lowers market frictions; structural renewables demand scales as expected.

Key caveat: No single official statistical series reports India–Scotland energy trade at the required level of granularity. Accordingly, all estimates are derived by apportioning UK-level bilateral trade and Scotland's trade with all destinations using appropriate sectoral proxies. As the sector is characterised by large, project-based transactions, individual high-value shipments (such as wind turbines or major equipment) may materially affect annual trade values. Energy services are excluded from both estimation passes, and the figures therefore represent goods trade only.

Source: UK-level goods trade data apportioned to Scotland (25-60% energy-commodity share); Tier 2/3 provenance.

D. Food and Drink — Seafood and Scotch Whisky

Estimation approach: Scotch whisky trade values are based on actual or near-actual export data, drawing on Scotch Whisky Association export statistics and HMRC HS 2208 commodity data. By contrast, seafood trade values are UKIBC estimates, reflecting the more limited availability of disaggregated bilateral trade data for this product category.

Growth and FY30 scenarios: Scotch whisky exports increased from £166 million in FY2020 to £248 million in FY2025, representing a CAGR of 8.4%. By 2030, exports are projected to reach £317 million under the Conservative scenario (5% CAGR), £399 million under the Central scenario (10% CAGR), and £499 million under the Aggressive scenario (15% CAGR).

Even for Scotch whisky, UKIBC considers the Central scenario to be relatively optimistic. It assumes the full realisation of India–UK CETA tariff benefits, coupled with the continued expansion of India's middle-class consumer base, supporting an underlying market growth rate of approximately 6–7% per annum and sustained demand for premium imported spirits.

Seafood exports are estimated to have grown from £6.3 million in FY2020 to £8.6 million in FY2025, equivalent to a 6.4% CAGR. Projected to 2030, exports reach £19.9 million under the Conservative scenario (18.3% CAGR), £27.5 million under the Central scenario (26.2% CAGR), and £39.4 million under the Aggressive scenario (35.6% CAGR). The relatively high growth rates primarily reflect the sector's modest FY2025 baseline, whereby comparatively small increases in absolute trade value translate into elevated percentage growth.

UKIBC estimates India–Scotland bilateral seafood trade to reach £27.5 million by 2030 under the Central scenario, representing a 26.2% CAGR from the FY2025 baseline. This growth is underpinned by the steady realisation of India–UK CETA benefits, alongside rising urban demand in India for premium imported seafood and high-value protein products.

Key caveat: No single official statistical series consistently reports India–Scotland seafood trade or Scotland's Scotch whisky exports to India at the required level of granularity. Accordingly, the estimates combine the best available official data with UKIBC analytical assumptions. Given the project's inherently lumpy, project- and shipment-driven trade flows, the scenario-based projections should be interpreted as more robust than single-point forecasts.

Source: Scotch Whisky Association export data; HMRC HS 2208 commodity trade statistics; UKIBC estimate for seafood (Tier 1 for whisky, Tier 3 for seafood).

Data provenance hierarchy

• Tier 1 (most reliable): HMRC / ONS regional and commodity-level trade statistics, and recognised sector bodies (Scotch Whisky Association, NASSCOM).
• Tier 2: UK-level bilateral totals (India-UK) apportioned to Scotland using a derived regional share.
• Tier 3 (most assumption-dependent): UKIBC judgement-based estimates where no usable proxy exists (e.g. seafood baseline, life sciences sector-share assumption).

Standing caveat: all projections are illustrative scenario bands, not forecasts of certainty; figures should be refreshed against updated HMRC, ONS, COMTRADE and sector-body releases as they become available.

What a fully scenario-consistent range looks like:

Notably, the scenario-consistent Central estimate of approximately £3.2 billion aligns closely with the published £3.0–3.4 billion headline range. This suggests that the headline figure is best interpreted as an illustrative range based on the Central scenario, rather than a strict aggregation of the Conservative and Aggressive scenarios across all four sectors.

*All figures, projections and market statements are drawn from UKIBC Research and Analysis materials dated 13 July 2026. Projections and estimates are presented with the time periods and qualifiers stated in the source material.