Our Scotland, Our Future: Public Engagement Strategy for Climate and Nature
Sets out our overarching framework for engaging the people of Scotland in meeting the challenges of a changing climate and biodiversity loss
4. Monitoring and Evaluation
Strengthening our approach to monitoring and evaluation (M&E) is a key area of focus in this PES. Last year, we commissioned new research via ClimateXChange to provide evidence to inform improvements to how activities delivered under the PES are monitored and evaluated. The research found that the scale and complexity of the PES – which encompasses a diverse set of interventions operating in a complex system, across all sectors and geographies in Scotland – poses challenges for evaluation. It found very few examples of strategies similar in scale and structure to Scotland’s PES and, therefore, few examples of robust evaluations. As a result, our approach to evaluation cannot rely on replication of existing models or indicators.
The research therefore recommended that a key foundation stone for strengthening PES M&E is to develop and communicate a more robust Theory of Change (ToC). This sets out the desired outcomes of the PES and explains how and why different programmes and interventions are expected to contribute towards achieving these outcomes. Once these ‘causal pathways’ between activities, outputs, outcomes and impacts have been clearly articulated, data collection can be planned to test whether the logic holds true in practice. This forms the conceptual foundation for a theory-based evaluation of the PES. The research found that, whilst PES programmes are already collecting the right types of data, more structured data collection, aligned with a clearer ToC, would allow us to better evaluate the PES as a whole.
Following these findings and recommendations, building a more robust and comprehensive ToC is at the heart of this PES update. In chapter 2, we set out our vision, objectives and outcomes for the PES. In the forthcoming Delivery Plan, we will complete the ToC by setting out the outputs and activities that will be delivered and articulating how and why we expect them to contribute to achieving the desired outcomes. This will be the scaffolding for an improved M&E framework. It will facilitate a more structured and systematic approach to data collection, which will enable us to better evidence how and why our delivery activities are contributing towards the outcomes we want to see.
Our approach
In line with the overarching changes to the structure of the PES, our M&E framework will have a strategy-level component and a delivery-level component. Below, we have set out a suite of ‘Outcome Indicators’ that we will use to track progress towards our nine outcomes. Quantitative indicators such as these provide important data to help us track whether we are moving in the right direction over time. All the indicators are official statistics from either the Scottish Household Survey or the Scottish Climate Survey and are therefore reliable and robust data points. However, these high-level outcome metrics are not sufficient to allow for an evaluation of the PES. They must be complemented by data on delivery activities. In our forthcoming delivery plan for the PES, we will set out our approach to delivery-level M&E. This will include how we intend to collect quantitative and qualitative evidence of activities and outputs from the different strands of delivery, closely aligned to the ToC.
At the mid-point (2029) and endpoint (2031) of the PES delivery period, we will bring together the different strands of data collected on activities, outputs and outcomes to test the logic of our ToC and provide an evaluation of our progress on the PES.
Outcome Indicators
| 1. Understanding | Indicator 1 | Indicator 2 | Indicator 3 | Indicator 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.1 The Challenge
People understand the causes and consequences of the twin crises and the need for ambitious action. |
Proportion of people who agree that climate change is an immediate and urgent problem | Proportion of people who report that they understand the term “greenhouse gas emissions” | Proportion of people who report that they know at least a little about the biodiversity crisis in Scotland | Proportion of people who report that they are concerned about the biodiversity crisis in Scotland |
| 1.2 The Opportunity
People are aware of Scotland’s climate and nature goals and the expected benefits of achieving them – for individuals, communities, and the planet. |
Proportion of people who report that they understand the terms (i) ‘Net Zero’ (ii) ‘Climate change adaptation’ | Proportion of people who agree that, by 2045, Scotland's transition to net zero will have improved people's quality of life | Proportion of people who report that they are aware of Scotland’s Net Zero by 2045 target. | - |
| 1.3 The Pathways
People know the intended pathway to realising Scotland’s climate and nature goals, the roles and responsibilities of different actors, and how people can contribute. |
Proportion of people who agree that they understand what actions individuals can take to contribute to tackling climate change. | Proportion of people who report that they are aware of our policies for mitigating climate change | Proportion of people who report that they are aware of our policies for addressing the nature crisis | - |
| 2. Motivation | Indicator 1 | Indicator 2 | Indicator 3 | Indicator 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.1 Positive Inspiration
People are inspired by the positive impacts and personal benefits experienced by other people acting on climate and nature, which makes them want to take action themselves |
Proportion of people who say they feel motivated to take action to help tackle climate change | Proportion of people who report being encouraged to take action after seeing other people taking action on climate change | Proportion of people who say they feel motivated to take action to help protect nature | Proportion of people who report being encouraged to take action after seeing other people taking action to protect nature |
| 2.2 Individual Agency
Individuals feel confident that they have the knowledge and skills they need to be able to meaningfully contribute to tackling the climate and nature crises. |
Proportion of people who say they feel able to take action to help tackle climate change | Proportion of people who say nothing stops them from taking action to adapt to climate change | Proportion of people who say that they consider climate change when making long-term decisions about their life | Proportion of people who say they feel able to take action to help protect nature |
| 2.3 Collective Action and Learning
Communities come together to take collective action on climate and nature and learn from each other, in a way that is relevant to them and impactful for their local places. |
Proportion of people who report they are aware of opportunities to come together with other people in their community to take collective action on climate change | Proportion of people who report they are aware of opportunities to come together with other people in their community to take collective action to protect nature | Proportion of people who report that their concern about climate change has motivated them to take collective action |
| 3. Voice | Indicator 1 | Indicator 2 | Indicator 3 | Indicator 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.1 Safe space for debate There is space to have safe, open and honest conversation between different points of view on how to address the climate and nature crises in a fair and inclusive way. | Proportion of people who report that they have spoken to other people about climate change in the past month | Proportion of people who say they feel comfortable sharing their views on climate change with others | Proportion of people who say they feel comfortable sharing their views on protecting nature with others | - |
| 3.2 Participation
People have opportunities to participate in the design and delivery of climate and nature policies that affect them. |
Proportion of people who agree they have the opportunity to influence the Scottish Government’s decisions about how Scotland should tackle climate change | Proportion of people who agree they have the opportunity to influence their local council’s decisions about how their local area should tackle climate change | Proportion of people who agree they have the opportunity to influence decisions about whether new renewable energy developments should be approved in their local area | - |
| 3.3 Feedback loop
Decision-makers listen to, acknowledge, and respond to people participating in climate and nature engagement. |
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