Humanitarian funding review: our future response to global humanitarian crises

Annex D Draft ideas on measurement of the Theory of Change

Assumptions behind the theory of change:

• Assumes donor priorities align with humanitarian needs and principles.
• Neutrality of action
• Availability of at least £1M per year in funding
• A degree of policy coherence from Scottish Government (domestic to humanitarian)
• Actors in the global south want to engage with Scottish Government

Potential causal pathways to inform a future monitoring, evaluation and results approach:

1. Longer term, predictable or pre-positioned funding to humanitarian actors in the global south

Premise: Providing flexible, unearmarked, or multi-year funding to humanitarian agencies enables them to respond quickly, flexibly, and strategically to emerging needs.

Causal Pathway: If Scottish Government provide this style of funding,

Then agencies can allocate resources where they are most needed,

Leading to more timely, efficient, and effective humanitarian responses,

Which ultimately improves outcomes for affected populations.

2. Multi-year investments in a Pooled fund

Premise: Providing multi-year funding pooled fund supports principles of shifting power south and localisation – investing in global south actors and enabling them to lead responses, shape activities and respond quickly, flexibly, and strategically to emerging needs.

Causal Pathway: If Scottish Government provide this style of funding,

Then institutions in the global south can build skills and experience in allocating resources where they are most needed,

Leading to more timely, efficient, and effective humanitarian responses – owned by actors in the global south,

Which ultimately improves outcomes for affected populations.

High level indicators to consider:

Output level:

• Volume of funds directly awarded to actors in the global south
• Time taken to disburse activations
• (Qualitative) Nature and extent of Scottish Government engagement in donor advocacy space
• Number (and age/sex) of people in need reached through Scottish Government funding
• Disability status

Outcome level^[82]:

• Feedback from actors using Scottish Government funding for humanitarian actors (exploring adaptiveness and responsiveness, donor principles, capacity etc)
• Changes in policy (donor influencing).