Key points

The prison population has been growing in recent years and exceeded 8,350 on several days in 2024 and early 2025 (reaching for example 8,379 on 4th March 2025).[1] This is approaching some of the highest levels seen.[2] The increased pressure presents challenges for the operation of and conditions within prisons.

There is no single reason for the increase in the prison population, and therefore no simple solution to manage and tackle the issue. The Scottish Government and partners have been taking forward several actions to manage the prison population, for example the emergency release of some short-term prisoners in 2024[3] and introduction of the Prisoners (Early Release) (Scotland) Act 2025 which amended the release point for short-term prisoners. It is also useful to recognise how the accumulation of incremental changes over many years affects the current position.

This paper explores long-term changes that have taken place which have altered the size and composition of the prison population – with changes both before and following the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, compared to 2009-10, the 2023-24 prison population included:

• more prisoners with the most serious index offences of ‘Murder and culpable homicide’ and ‘Rape and attempted rape’ (up by almost 200 and 900 prisoners on an average day, respectively)
• a higher proportion of older prisoners, with an increase in average age of those experiencing prison (from 31.4 in 2009-10 to 37.8 in 2023-24)
• fewer entries and exits, with more people serving longer sentences

In addition it highlights, for example that:

• drugs and other demographic challenges are important factors in relation to the prison population and operation of the prison estate
• there is now an increased remand population, though this may be a shorter-term COVID-19 pandemic-related impact