Local level Brexit vulnerabilities in Scotland: Brexit Vulnerabilities Index (BVI)

This research identifies areas of Scotland that are expected to be most vulnerable to the consequences of Brexit, and what drives those risks to support local authorities and other organisations in understanding local risks around EU exit.


1. Previous Scottish Government Brexit analysis is published here: https://www.gov.scot/publications/deal-brexit-economic-implications-scotland/

2. Datazones are small area geographical units used for statistical measurement with a population of around 770 people.

3. Further information on how the variables are combined together can be found in Annex 2.

4. The underlying data are available for download here: http://www.gov.scot/isbn/9781839601248

5. Larger Cities: Glasgow City, City of Edinburgh, Aberdeen City and Dundee City; Urban with Substantial Rural: East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Falkirk, Fife, Inverclyde, Midlothian, North Ayrshire, North Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, South Lanarkshire, Stirling, West Dunbartonshire, West Lothian; Mainly Rural: Aberdeenshire, Angus, Clackmannanshire, Dumfries and Galloway, East Ayrshire, East Lothian, Highland, Moray, Perth and Kinross, Scottish Borders, South Ayrshire; Islands and Remote Rural: Na h-Eileanan Siar, Orkney Islands, Shetland Islands, Argyll and Bute. See: https://www.gov.scot/publications/understanding-scottish-rural-economy/

6. The analysis in this paper is based on datazones. The paper also refers to datazones as communities in some places where this aids understanding.

7. The underlying data are available here: http://www.gov.scot/isbn/9781839601248

8. Fraser of Allander Institute, (2019), Brexit and the sectors of the Scottish economy - Update;
Fraser of Allander Institute, (2016), Long-term economic implications of Brexit: a report for the Scottish Parliament;
Bank of England, (2018), EU withdrawal scenarios and monetary and financial stability; 

9. https://www.gov.scot/publications/deal-brexit-economic-implications-scotland/pages/2/

10. Bank of England, (4th September 2019), Letter from Mark Carney, BoE Governor to Treasury Select Committee EU withdrawal scenarios and monetary and financial stability; https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/letter/2019/governor-letter-to-chair-of-tsc-re-updated-brexit-scenarios.pdf

11. https://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/en/policy/what/glossary/e/european-agricultural-fund-for-rural-development

12. For more detail on SIMD including the methodology and weightings applied see https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/SIMD.

13. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/831199/20190802_Latest_Yellowhammer_Planning_assumptions_CDL.pdf

14. E.g. FAPRI, (2017): Impacts of Alternative Post-Brexit Trade Agreements on UK Agriculture: Sector Analyses using the FAPRI-UK Model: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320166644_Impacts_of_Alternative_Post-Brexit_Trade_Agreements_on_UK_Agriculture_Sector_Analyses_using_the_FAPRI-UK_Model_httpswwwafbinigovukpublicationsafbi-report-post-brexit-trade-agreements-uk-agriculture

15. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/831199/20190802_Latest_Yellowhammer_Planning_assumptions_CDL.pdf

16. https://cdn.prgloo.com/media/574fecf008bf482cbb9739166c8815de

17. https://www.gov.scot/news/businesses-concerned-about-brexit/

18. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/831199/20190802_Latest_Yellowhammer_Planning_assumptions_CDL.pdf

19. https://www.gov.scot/publications/esif-operations-funding/. European Social Fund and European Structural Funds support a range of community groups, local authority projects, and wider economic development

20. https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/key-policies/common-agricultural-policy_en

CAP payments are made up of two Pillars. Pillar One is funded through the European Agricultural Guarantee Fund (EAGF) and primarily finances direct payments to farmers and measures regulating or supporting agricultural. Pillar Two is funded through the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) finances rural development. It funds economic, environmental and social measures for the benefit of rural Scotland.

21. Weights sum to 165, this is to ensure all weighting rounds to 5 or 10 to avoid spurious accuracy in percentage weightings.

22. https://cdn.prgloo.com/media/574fecf008bf482cbb9739166c8815de

23. NiNo registration statistics are available at the DWP Stat-Xplore website here:
NiNo registrations are made by migrants when moving into employment. This is not a measure of permanent migration and allows the analysis to capture short-time migration that is not covered by population figures. It also is a proxy for the demand for migrant labour, and for those areas with higher migration generally.

24. These indicators are: access to services, working age population share, income deprivation, population change, workers in Brexit-sensitive industries, EC payments (a) CAP, and (b) ESF and ESOF to the area, and National Insurance Number registrations by EU nationals (see Table 2).

25. The data are available here: http://www.gov.scot/isbn/9781839601248

26. Scotland total for population does not equal the sum of the constituent parts due to rounding.

27. https://www2.gov.scot/Resource/0050/00504822.pdf


Email: ruralstatistics@gov.scot

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