Kinloch Castle Study: Final report

2. Methods

The Kinloch Castle Study included three ‘rounds’ during which all adult residents of Rum were invited to take part in two surveys, a drop-in session and workshop.

The focus of the study was on collecting the views of individual residents, and the research was designed to give islanders the opportunity to reflect on their responses over multiple rounds, and to bring them towards a consensus on the main issues.

The Delphi Method

The study method was based on the Delphi technique, which is more commonly used to reach consensus and develop guidelines in health-related fields. In a Delphi study, researchers collect and analyse the opinions of a panel of experts through a series of surveys (‘rounds’). Participants then see an anonymised summary of the responses to each round, and are asked to consider their own responses in light of this. This often leads to a convergence of opinion (‘consensus’).

There is no standard rule on defining consensus within Delphi studies, and a threshold percentage is not always provided at the start. The range reported as an accepted consensus can be from 50-97%, and consensus is most commonly defined based on the percentage of agreement with a specific response.^[2] We followed this methodology in this study, and measure consensus as 50% agreement and above.

As Delphi studies involve multiple rounds, a certain level of drop-out is expected. In this study, we received a higher response in Round 1 than Round 2. To maintain rigour it has been suggested that the response rate of each Delphi study round should not fall below 70%, and that further rounds should not be carried out if the response rate of the previous round is low. During Round 1, we heard from 21 islanders. As the adult population of Rum is estimated to be 23, this represents a response rate of over 90%.^[3] In Round 2, the response rate was 70%. This should be taken into account when considering the results.

For example, in our Main Findings section we have drawn on the Round 1 results to report levels of agreement that Kinloch Castle should be sold in order to be redeveloped and brought back into operational use. We have done this as we heard from a higher number of islanders in Round 1 (over 90%) and so believe that the responses at this stage more accurately reflect the views of the Rum community.

Survey data from Rounds 1 and 2 was analysed, coded and summarised in two reports which we shared with all islanders and stakeholder groups before beginning the next stage. Notes were taken during the Round 3 workshop and drop-in sessions. Where permission was given, recordings of the conversations were made, but not all conversations were recorded. The findings are summarised in this report. Research materials including survey questions and results are set out in the report Annex.

Round 1

Round 1 took place with islanders between March and May 2024. In March we sent an invitation to each postal address on Rum to take part in an online survey.^[4] In May, we extended the survey deadline to give islanders more time to complete it, in response to feedback from the Isle of Rum Community Trust and the Rum Community Association. We received 21 responses to Round 1. We shared the Round 1 summary report with all islanders, the Research Advisory Group, the Isle of Rum Community Trust, Rum Community Association and the Kinloch Castle Friends Association. We gave each group an opportunity to provide feedback and suggestions for Round 2 of the study.

Round 2

Round 2 took place with islanders and wider stakeholders between July and August 2024. In July we sent an invitation to each postal address on Rum to take part in a second online survey.^[5] We also sent a survey invitation directly to all Round 1 respondents who provided an email address, with a summary of their previous response. We received 16 responses.

In Round 2 we also surveyed members of the Kinloch Castle Friends Association. This organisation has around 100 members, and we provided a separate survey link to be distributed by email. We did so in order to gather all stakeholders’ views and to give a complete view. We received 57 valid responses.^[6] We recognise the interest of this organisation in the future of castle. By surveying members of the Kinloch Castle Friends Association, we were able to identify areas of consensus between this group and island residents. This was included in the Round 2 report.^[7] However, as the main focus of this study is on the views of islanders, the results of this additional survey are reported separately in the Annex of this report and have not shaped the study conclusions. The Kinloch Castle Friends Association had no further involvement in the study. We shared the Round 2 summary report with islanders and stakeholder groups before beginning Round 3.

Round 3

Round 3 took place with islanders in November 2024 with an in-person drop-in session and workshop on Rum. In November we sent a workshop information pack to each postal address on Rum, which included an Information sheet, Frequency Asked Questions list, and a summary of previous research. We emailed a copy to all respondents who had previously provided an email address and sent posters to be displayed in the village shop. A message was also sent to the community WhatsApp group on the day of the workshop.

We conducted 6 interviews during the 2 hour drop-in session, with two paired interviews. 17 island residents then attended a 2 hour workshop, but not all stayed for the duration. Some of the drop-in attendees also attended the workshop. Nearly all of the community participated in the process, including 2 younger residents who attended with their parents.

Research Advisory Group

At the beginning of the study we set up a Research Advisory Group to guide the research and provide feedback on our reporting at each stage. This group included Scottish Government policy officials, analysts from the Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services (RESAS) Division of the Scottish Government, NatureScot officials and representatives from Historic Environment Scotland and Highlands and Islands Enterprise.