Inflation Adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland Q4 2024


Key findings

This data covers real terms trade in goods during the period of the fourth quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2024. Trade in services as well as trade in oil and gas are excluded. The analysis is designated as ‘official statistics in development,’ which means that the data has a wider degree of uncertainty and should be treated with some caution.

Please be aware that HMRC are investigating errors in the 2024 net mass (kg) data for UK exports, including Scotland. While we have excluded all commodity groups known to be affected, all results are subject to revisions, which will be announced in HMRC’s RTS commentary.

Total Trade

  • When comparing 2024 with the previous year, the value of Scotland’s international goods exports decreased by 2% to £18.4 billion, while Scotland’s goods imports decreased by 9% to £18.2 billion. Overall, Scotland’s total international trade (imports + exports) in goods decreased by 5%.

Commodities

  • The largest negative change in international exports was in Organic chemicals which accounted for a quarter of the total decline. Power generating machinery and Road vehicles also saw large declines.
  • Drink is Scotland’s top export, accounting for around 27% of the value of Scotland’s international goods exports and 21% of EU goods exports in 2024.

Destinations

  • Over the longer term, Scotland’s international goods exports have decreased by 12% in 2024 compared to the equivalent period in 2018. Over the same period Scotland’s exports to the EU have decreased by 18%.
  • Over 2024 the value of Scotland’s goods exports to the EU decreased by 8% to £7.2 billion. The largest negative change was in Medicinal & pharmaceutical products which accounted for 15% of the total decline. Organic chemicals and Chemical materials & products also saw large declines.
  • In current prices the EU was Scotland’s top export destination, accounting for around 38% of the value of Scotland’s total goods exports. Around 18% of the value of Scotland’s goods exports to the EU was Drink.
  • In current prices the United States is also an important trading destination for Scotland, accounting for around 17% of Scotland’s total goods export value.

Revisions

The latest estimates from HMRC include revisions to estimates of drink exports following the introduction of new Customs Procedure Codes (CPC) in 2024. As a result the value of drink exports during the first three quarters of 2024 is £1.2 billion higher in current prices than previously estimated.

User Survey

We encourage users of these statistics to provide feedback by completing a short survey, which we will keep open while we consider the use of chained volume measures in this series of reports:

Scottish Government Regional Trade in Goods Report - User Survey (office.com)

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