Inflation Adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland Q1 2026

Key Findings

This data covers real terms trade in goods during the period of the first quarter of 2019 to the first quarter of 2026. Trade in services as well as trade in oil and gas are excluded. The analysis is designated as ‘official statistics in development,’ which means that the data has a wider degree of uncertainty and should be treated with some caution.

Total Trade

• When comparing the year ending March 2026 with the previous year, the value of Scotland’s international goods exports decreased by 3% to £24.2 billion, while Scotland’s goods imports increased by 17% to £25.7 billion. Overall, Scotland’s total international trade (imports + exports) in goods increased by 7%.

Commodities

• The largest negative change in international exports was in Specialised machinery which accounted for around a fifth of the total decline. Fish and shellfish and Manufactures of metal also saw large declines.
• Drink is Scotland’s top export, accounting for around 20% of the value of Scotland’s international goods exports and 16% of EU goods exports in the year ending March 2026.

Destinations

• Over the longer term, Scotland’s international goods exports have decreased by 17% in the year ending March 2026 compared to the equivalent period in 2019. Over the same period Scotland’s exports to the EU have decreased by 24%.
• Over the year ending March 2026 the value of Scotland’s goods exports to the EU decreased by 4% to £9.4 billion. The largest negative change was in Fish and shellfish which accounted for around a third of the total decline. Chemical materials & products and Drink also saw large declines.

User Survey

We encourage users of these statistics to provide feedback by completing a short survey, which we will keep open while we consider the use of chained volume measures in this series of reports:

Scottish Government Regional Trade in Goods Report - User Survey (office.com)