3. Private-led new housebuilding
The private sector is the biggest contributor to overall house building, accounting for around two-thirds (68%) of all homes completed in the 12 months to end March 2022.
Chart 5 shows the annual number of private sector led starts and completions from 2008 to 2022 (years to end March).
This shows the impact of the recession in the second half of the last decade, with private sector led starts and completions falling substantially in the years to end March 2009 and March 2010 due to the financial crisis. Starts and completions have been broadly increasing in more recent years until dropping in the year to end March 2021 due to the impact of COVID-19 construction lockdown measures in place between March and June 2020. Since then, completions have increased by 29% in the year to end March, however starts have risen by only 3%.
Chart 6 below presents the latest quarterly trends. In January to March 2022there were 3,241 private sector led homes completed, a decrease of 5% (165 homes) on the same quarter in 2021.This brings the total for the year ending March 2022 to 14,211, an increase of 29% (3,157 homes) on the 11,054 completions in the previous year.
There were 3,199 private sector led homes started in January to March 2022, a decrease of 35% (1,704 homes) on the same quarter in 2021. This brings the total for the year to end March 2022 to 14,075 starts, an increase of 3% (430 homes) on the 13,645 starts in the previous year.
|Private sector homes||Starts||Completions|
|Quarter Jan to Mar 2019||4,135||3,461|
|Quarter Jan to Mar 2020||3,503||3,040|
|Quarter Jan to Mar 2021||4,903||3,406|
|Quarter Jan to Mar 2022||3,199||3,241|
|Change from Q1 2021 to Q1 2022||-1,704||-165|
|Change from 2021 to 2022 (%)||-35%||-5%|
|Year to end March 2019||16,774||15,789|
|Year to end March 2020||17,170||16,452|
|Year to end March 2021||13,645||11,054|
|Year to end March 2022||14,075||14,211|
|Change from 2021 to 2022 (%)||430||3,157|
|Change from 2021 to 2022 (%)||3%||29%|
Map B below shows that the highest private sector led completion rate in the year to end March 2022 was in Midlothian, with a rate of over 78 homes per 10,000 households.
The lowest rates meanwhile, have been in Glasgow City, West Dunbartonshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Scottish Borders, Inverclyde, East Dunbartonshire, North Lanarkshire, Argyll & Bute, South Ayrshire, and Angus, which have all seen rates of below to 15 homes per 10,000 households.
Note that the private sector completion rates calculations contain some estimated figures. Estimated figures have been used for private sector completions for Glasgow City Council from April to June 2021, East Dunbartonshire and South Ayrshire from October to December 2021, and Angus and West Dunbartonshire for January to March 2022.
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