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Outlines our long-term vision for the future of the Grangemouth Industrial cluster and corresponding actions, supporting a just transition for workers, the community and industry of Grangemouth.
To achieve a Just Transition for the Grangemouth Industrial Cluster, GFIB has set out an ambitious vision for the cluster in 2045. To make this vision a reality it must be underpinned by a set of representative outcomes which align to the National Just Transition Outcomes.[43] These outcomes have been distilled into themes to aid the development of the Scottish Government’s Just Transition Plans, including for Grangemouth.[44]
The first step in developing a monitoring and evaluation framework for the Grangemouth Just Transition Plan is to establish a set of Grangemouth-specific outcomes, of which progress can be tracked over time using qualitative and quantitative data indicators. These indicators are listed against Grangemouth specific Just Transition Outcomes in Table 1.
The indicators have been chosen based on their relevance, validity and practicality, as well as current availability and re-publishing frequency. They have been developed in consultation with the GFIB membership and take cognisance of the Just Transition Commission’s recent advice for measuring the fairness of a Just Transition for Grangemouth.[45] Due to lack of available data, there are instances where appropriate indicators are currently unavailable, or a cause-effect relationship between existing data and outcome cannot be made. In those cases, we are committed to working on data development and will continue to scrutinise emerging data as it becomes available.
Figure 12 – Annual Review of M&E Approach
Monitoring and Evaluation Process
GFIB will be responsible for monitoring progress of this plan against the below framework. It is our intention that the Leadership Forum will hold ultimate accountability and oversight of this process, whilst the Programme Board will have responsibility for reporting on progress and gathering data. It is our ambition that this Monitoring and Evaluation framework will underpin the performance of the actions set out within this Plan. We also acknowledge that the framework will evolve over time as outcomes are achieved and as the needs of community, industry and the Grangemouth workforce develop. Work to collate and gather new data indicators as well as assessing the continued relevance of the outcomes within the framework will be shared by the GFIB Programme Board. This will enable member organisations to utilise their diverse expertise and knowledge of data sources to monitor and develop this framework over time.
The Scottish Government and GFIB partners will endeavour not only to report data for the selected indicators but review the suitability of outcomes and indicators for the Plan’s next cycle of monitoring and evaluation. A visualisation of this process is outlined in Figure X. Due to the requirement to use publicly available data and the complexity of gathering custom data, the first Monitoring and Evaluation report will be produced approximately two years following the publication of this Plan.
Table 1: Grangemouth Just Transition Outcomes and Indicators (indicators marked with ** denote need to develop new or bespoke data sets)
Jobs, Skills and Economic Opportunities (ECON)
Outcome
Indicators
1. Grangemouth continues to be a thriving manufacturing hub for the Scottish economy, increasing the scale and pace of innovation and acts as an anchor point for new and emerging industries of the future by driving research in new climate compatible manufacturing.
GVA for manufacturing sector Business count by size band and type (manufacturing) Business spend on R&D and innovation**
2. Grangemouth’s transition to net zero supports new and existing fair and well-paid jobs across its operations and supply chain in Scotland and, the Grangemouth workforce is diverse and advances equality of opportunity for all.
Total employment in manufacturing and related industries in Falkirk Area Average salary Claimant count Total number of workers from Grangemouth Industrial Cluster who completed a training course in the past year** (adapted from JTC report measure 2.1.3) Ratio of jobs created to jobs lost in Grangemouth** (adapted from JTC report measure 2.2.2) Job satisfaction for those working in Grangemouth Industrial Cluster** (adapted from JTC report measure 2.2.3) High-skilled occupations as a proportion of the workforce** (adapted from JTC report measure 2.2.5)
3. A decarbonised Grangemouth serves a range of domestic and global net zero markets, has better leveraged public and private investment, identifying areas where it can support the reduction of regional inequality, supporting a strong, dynamic and productive economy which creates equitable wealth and high-quality employment.
Supply chain links (export of goods and energy)** Private investment leveraged in Grangemouth economic/industrial development and transition to net zero**
Outcome
Indicators
4. Grangemouth retains and develops its role as an integral part of the energy supply chain, enabling wider decarbonisation of e.g. the transport and industrial sectors, through production of climate compatible fuels.
Tonnage of liquid bulk imports and exports (by type) at Forth Port Percentage of Scottish energy market served – would require data collection Energy production capacity**
Communities and Places (COMM)
Outcome
Indicators
5. Where a clear connection exists, industry/industrial decarbonation supports the development of clean, safe, green, accessible and improved public and private spaces that are fit for purpose, build resilience and provide wider benefits for people, health and wellbeing, and biodiversity, in a balanced way.
Green/blue space access Green/blue space satisfaction Surveys about new GD projects e.g; ‘Creating Great Places’** Local determination of use of unused and decommissioned sites in Grangemouth** (from JTC report measure 8.3)
6. Grangemouth has improved coordination of structural levers needed to support the transition in Grangemouth (planning; electricity supply; infrastructure) and the impacts of these developments on wider stakeholders are known and addressed.
Population within 500 metres of a derelict site Map of electricity network, project wait times Number of community or locally owned renewable energy installations/ operational renewable energy capacity in community and local ownership (in absolute numbers and MW) in Grangemouth (adapted from JTC report measure 8.1) Number of assets in community ownership (any land, buildings and any other property of substantial value that a community group may own) in Grangemouth (adapted from JTC report measure 8.2)
Outcome
Indicators
7. Grangemouth has an enhanced relationship between community and industry, as well as other actors, with greater presence and visibility of industry activity and developments in typically non-industrial spaces. Grangemouth has an enhanced sense of pride in its industrial strength.
Rating neighbourhood as a good/very good place to live Survey of effectiveness of GFIB as a forum for community to voice concerns regarding industrial transformation** Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) investment from corporations based in Grangemouth Industrial Cluster** (adapted from JTC report measure 6.2)
8. Communities are empowered. Strong community links ensure that a wide representative demographic are represented and meaningfully engaged and their views have been considered at each of the decision–making process regarding the long-term future of the industrial cluster and its impact on the wider place of Grangemouth.
Percentage agreeing with statement, ‘This is a neighbourhood where local people take action to help improve the neighbourhood’ Number of community events held by GFIB partners regarding policy affecting the area and attendance of these events.** People in Grangemouth feel able to influence decisions affecting their local area (adapted from JTC report measure 6.3) People in Grangemouth would like to be involved in decision making (adapted from JTC report measure 7.2)
People and Equity (EQUI)
Outcome
Indicators
9. Health, wealth and wellbeing of the residents of Grangemouth has increased, proportionally, alongside the economic and sustainable growth of the future industrial cluster.
PHS data for health outcomes Population prescribed drugs for mental health reasons Same as Outcome 5, track access to Green/Blue Spaces No deterioration in any of the 25 sub-areas of Grangemouth according to the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (adapted from JTC report measure 1.1) Improved ranking of 5 most currently deprived sub-areas of Grangemouth according to the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (adapted from JTC report measure 4.1) Prevalence of child poverty in Grangemouth (adapted from JTC report measure 5.3)
10. Costs of industrial decarbonisation are shared fairly on the basis of ability to pay.
Percentage households reporting financial difficulties Population income-deprived
11. Opportunities to leverage the industrial cluster’s large energy demands in support of reducing local fuel poverty are fully explored and where opportunities are identified, all responsible actors across the public and private sector are obliged to maximise the success of specific projects.
Fuel poverty, Scottish Housing Condition Survey
Outcome
Indicators
12. Local residents have improved access to job opportunities existing or future stemming from the industrial cluster and are not disadvantaged by e.g. long travelling distances to gain access to required education.
Unemployment rate for Falkirk local authority area ‘Positive destinations’ for School Leavers Funding available for apprenticeships – would require data collection Rate of people of working age in Grangemouth not in employment, education or training for affected areas (adapted from JTC report measure 2.1.1) Participation in adult learning in Grangemouth (adapted from JTC report measure 2.1.2) Reduced geographical differences in transport poverty in Grangemouth (adapted from JTC report measure 4.3
Adaptation, Biodiversity and Environment (ENVT)
Outcome
Indicators
13. Environmental regulation supports innovation and the transition to achieving net zero and a circular economy whilst maintaining high standards and levels of protection for communities and the environment.
GHG emissions via SPRI Business waste by type Survey about industrial operators’ experience with Regulatory Hub**
14. The exposure of residents and workers in Grangemouth, but particularly the oldest, youngest and those with pre-existing medical conditions, to poor air quality is minimised.
Air quality data for Grangemouth Long-term respiratory conditions outpatients, NHS Forth Valley**
15. Existing and future infrastructure is designed and embedded in a way that improves and restores habitats and ecosystems, and increases resilience to a changing climate, to meet the objectives of Scotland’s Biodiversity Strategy.
GHG emissions via SPRI Air quality data for Grangemouth Biodiversity in Grangemouth (terrestrial abundance of priority species)** (adapted from JTC report measure 3.3)
16. As an asset of national importance, innovative and appropriate options are identified and adopted for protecting and adapting the cluster and surrounding area from the impacts of climate change.
Amount invested in climate mitigation and adaptation projects/companies pursuing net zero-adjacent work at Grangemouth**
