Grangemouth Industrial - just transition plan: supporting a fair transition for Scotland's core manufacturing cluster
Outlines our long-term vision for the future of the Grangemouth Industrial cluster and corresponding actions, supporting a just transition for workers, the community and industry of Grangemouth.
Annex A – Detailed Baseline
Introduction
This section of the Just Transition Plan provides an overview of the current Grangemouth Industrial cluster in Scotland
This annex has been designed to provide a clear and comprehensive outline of how the industrial cluster operates today, which will inform how the cluster can reach net zero and how this might impact on businesses, people and places in the process. Taken collectively alongside the vision, it will help shape policies and actions to ensure that such a transition is as fair as possible. Critically, the baseline will provide an agreed reference point for monitoring efforts as GFIB progresses this work.
Current Developments and Industry Risk
The Grangemouth industrial cluster has undergone a series of changes in recent years in response to economic challenge. This includes:
- Fujifilm Imaging Colourants Ltd announced the closure of its dye and ink manufacturing plant in early 2024, with the loss of all jobs. The site previously employed 118 staff;
- Versalis announce the closure of their only UK site, at Grangemouth, in late 2023. Part of the chemical division of Italian energy company Eni, it manufactured rubber products and previously employed 150 staff;
- In November 2023, Petroineos announced that the Grangemouth oil refinery would close in the first half of 2025, with around 75 FTE roles retained for a fuel import operation. This has now taken place, with the refinery formally ceasing production on 29 April, and decommissioning and conversion to import facilities underway. A wider blueprint of the economic impact of the refinery’s operations was published by the Scottish Government in 2024.
More broadly, we understand that remaining businesses are facing into the global challenges at and new uncertainties that have emerged as well as the significant opportunity that the transition at Grangemouth presents. To ensure they are able to respond they have a renewed focus addressing new infrastructure requirements, workforce availability with specialised skills as well as the increased costs for energy, raw materials and utilities.
Whilst these wider challenges are not a direct result of climate policy, they do present industry with an increasingly challenging baseline for achieving net zero targets, given the significant investment required to ensure this is commercially viable. As a starting point for the transition to net zero, this presents a significant risk. That is why the Scottish Government has made available an additional £25 million in funding specifically for the Grangemouth industrial cluster and further adjusted the focus of its action plan within this document to reflect the immediate risks facing industry, workers and the wider town of Grangemouth. Given the criticality of continued business activity to achieving our Just Transition, the Scottish Government will maintain a close review of the economic viability of existing operators throughout delivery of this plan.
It is also important to recognise that there are several promising future developments underway, at various stages of development, showing a cluster that is in the process of significant structural change. This includes:
RWE Green Hydrogen – Proposals for a 200MWe green hydrogen production plant at Wholeflats – with potential expansion up to 600MWe. A formal planning application is yet to be submitted, though the project is anticipated to operational by 2029.
INEOS Low Carbon Manufacturing Plant (Blue Hydrogen) – Proposals for a major Blue Hydrogen production plant within INEOS existing site. Timescales for development are currently uncertain – with a critical dependency around the planned Project Acorn/‘Scottish Cluster’ CCUS infrastructure through which CO2 will be transported to North-Sea storage. The Scottish Government is currently providing funding to support early-stage development of this work.
Syngenta, Earls Road – Planning permission was granted in December 2024 for construction of a new chemical manufacturing building as part of Syngenta’s facility at Earls Road. Specifically it will provide plant for new agricultural (Seedcare) chemical products.
Forth Ports Energy Park – As part of the Green Freeport Forth Ports are seeking to promote and deliver a new ‘Energy Park’ on land to the east of South Shore Road. Full details of the Energy Park are not yet confirmed, though could include facilities for Liquid Natural Gas as as well as potential hydrogen and carbon capture & storage technologies.
The Falkirk and Grangemouth Growth Deal (signed November 2024) includes government funding for several inter-linked projects to support and accelerate Grangemouth’s transition to a low carbon chemicals and manufacturing cluster. These include the Grangemouth Sustainable Manufacturing Campus, a key investment to stimulate innovation, supporting the development of new technologies to offer a sustainable future for manufacturing in the area.
Manufacturing Activity
Grangemouth encompasses a range of manufacturing processes, across a number of industrial sectors, showing a diverse and complex ecosystem, producing a variety of important products. Through a series of interviews and data gathering exercises we have provided a summary of the core products manufactured at Grangemouth and their destinations.[10]
Emissions
Greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are the leading measure for decarbonisation. By analysing the scale of GHG emissions from Grangemouth operators we can begin to understand and estimate how complex a transition to net zero may be for the site.
We have estimated that the Grangemouth cluster was responsible for around 3Mt of carbon dioxide emissions in 2022. This represented around 11% of Scottish CO2 emissions and 7.5% of total territorial emissions. Available data suggest that the Cluster’s CO2 emissions fell to around 2.5Mt in 2023. Whilst it is our ambition that further emission reduction is achieved through decarbonisation of sustainable operations, looking forward, we expect emissions to fall further given the closure of the refinery, which accounted for around 30% of the Cluster’s total emissions. The 2022 figure will be used as the basis for measuring emissions reductions across the cluster. In addition to considering progress against emissions reductions, GFIB shall also consider on an ongoing basis approaches which improve oversight of scope 2 and 3 emissions where possible.
| Company | Carbon Emissions[11] (kt) | Main source of emissions | % of total emissions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avondale Non-Hazardous Landfill, Polmont | 33.2 | 1.1 | |
| Grangemouth CHP, Bo’ness Road, Grangemouth | 512.8 | SCOPE 1 | 16.9 |
| INEOS Chemicals Grangemouth Ltd, Grangemouth | 631.3 | SCOPE 1 | 20.8 |
| INEOS FPS Ltd, Kinneil Terminal, Grangemouth | 233.6 | SCOPE 1 | 7.7 |
| INEOS Infrastructure (Grangemouth)Ltd | 529.7 | SCOPE 1 | 17.4 |
| Petroineos Manufacturing, Grangemouth Refinery | 1,019.8 | SCOPE 1 | 33.5 |
| Veolia CHP Plant, Earls Road, Grangemouth | 16.1 | SCOPE 1 | 0.5 |
| Versalis UK Ltd | 44.5 | SCOPE 1 | 1.5 |
| Calachem | 19.5 | SCOPE 1 | 0.6 |
| Syngenta[12] | 1.5 | SCOPE 1 | 0.0 |
Whilst Grangemouth remains one of the key sources of industrial emissions in Scotland, progress is being made. For example, INEOS has reduced net emissions by 37% since 2005[13] and Syngeta is working towards a net zero target by 2030.[14]
Environment[15]
The Grangemouth cluster is situated on the southern side of the Firth of Forth – which is subject to a number of national and international designations to protect environmental and habitat features.
This includes:
The Firth of Forth Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) – recognised for a variety of geological, geomorphological features, coastal habitats, plants, invertebrates, and breeding, passage and wintering bird populations. The SSSI directly borders the Port of Grangemouth to the east and west, and the northern edge of the Petroineos Refinery Site.
The Firth of Forth Special Protection Area (SPA) – covers a similar area to the SSSI, and also directly borders the Port and Petroineos Refinery site. It provides specific protection to wild bird species of European importance and their intertidal, saltmarsh, lagoon and other habitats across the Forth.
The Firth of Forth RAMSAR site – protects wetlands of international importance across the Forth and bird species inhabiting them. It has the same boundaries as the SPA. While the primary industrial and development areas of the Grangemouth cluster are outside of environmental designation, they will require careful consideration in future planning and development. In particular the potential for in-direct impacts associated with emissions to air, water, and land from industrial developments should be considered.
At a local level there are also a number of landscape and environmental designations around Grangemouth (made by Falkirk Council and reflected in the Local Development Plan). This includes Local Nature Conservation Sites, such as Jupiter Urban Wildlife Centre, Polmont Wood, and Bo’ness Foreshore, as well as a limited number of major heritage designations especially within the Town Centre and Zetland Park. While not likely to pose direct interaction with future development activity and investment, they should be given due consideration.
Economic Impact GVA
GVA is a key indicator of the state of the whole economy and gives a picture of the state of economic activity from the supply side perspective. It measures the contribution to the economy of each individual producer, industry or sector in Scotland and is used in the estimation of GDP. GVA is the difference between the value of goods and services produced (plus wages) and the cost of raw materials and other inputs, which are used up in production. The total direct, indirect, and induced GVA for the cluster is estimated at £644 million in 2025 equating to 0.3% of Scotland’s GDP:
Source: analysis using the Scottish Government Input-Output Tables, using the relevant Type I and Type II multipliers for each company in the cluster. Compiled using company accounts data and responses from data requests.
Employment
The Grangemouth industrial cluster, has approximately 2,600 employees in 2025.[16]
In 2023, the average wage for a worker in the cluster was:
1.4 times higher than the average wage for a full-time worker in the Falkirk local authority area; and
1.5 times higher than the average wage for a full-time worker in Scotland.[17]
Most employees within the cluster live within the immediate local area: more than half have a home address within the Falkirk local authority area (around 57%, FK1-FK6) and a further 11% in West Lothian (EH48-EH55).[18]
The vast majority of employees (95%) are on full-time hours (30+ hours per week).[19]
The workforce is predominantly male (85% of the total).[20]
Taking direct employment in the Grangemouth cluster as 2,600 jobs, we can use Scottish Government economic multipliers to estimate the wider impact on the economy, both in terms of indirect jobs in the supply chain, and those induced through employee salary spend. This shows around 5,350 jobs supported by the Grangemouth industrial cluster.
Source: analysis using the Scottish Government Input-Output Tables, using the relevant Type I and Type II multipliers for each company in the cluster.
Supply Chain
The Overall Picture
Companies responding to the data request provided a geographic breakdown of their procurement and supply chain spending for the most recent financial year. This is shown in the pie chart below.
The overall purchasing figures are dominated by purchase of feedstocks for the INEOS chemicals manufacturing business and natural gas for on-site power generation, and are particularly high in the given year (2023), given the steep increase in commodity prices from early 2022.
The Local Picture
Those responding to the data request were asked to provide information on the suppliers or contractors with which they have the highest spend. As noted, feedstocks and natural gas are the highest areas of spend.
Maintaining and developing on-site infrastructure is also a major area of cost, with tens of millions spent each year with construction and engineering companies, many of which maintain a local presence.
The following companies have a base in Grangemouth or Falkirk and were identified by the six respondents to the data request:
- Altrad Babcock/Altrad Services (engineering/construction/maintenance)
- Bilfinger (industrial construction and maintenance)
- Luddon (civil engineering and construction)
- Veolia/Suez (waste)
- MRC Global (pipes, valves and fittings)
- BGen (engineering and design)
- Applus+ UK (safety and environmental testing)
- Ainscough Crane Hire (crane hire)
- Aramark (canteen services)
- Polymer Logistics Scotland (logistics)
- Swan Analytical (electrical services)
- Trillium Flow Technologies (pumps and valves)
- Denholm Environmental (industrial cleaning)
- Scottish Fuels (fuel)
- Poole Process Equipment (heat/pressure equipment supply)
- Enigma Industrial Services (scaffolding and insulation/painting)
- Engenda Group (engineering)
- H.W. Coates (chemical warehousing and transport)
- ERIKS Industrial Services (mechanical engineering components and logistics)
- PFP Contracting (fireproofing)
- Sunbelt Rentals Industrial (vehicle and equipment hire).
Total annual spend across the above local companies comes to £132m. Purchases with each company ranged from £100,000 to £50m. Each area of spend was generally identified as recurring on an annual basis, although some construction/engineering contractor costs related to a specific capital project and will tail off on completion.
In most cases, these companies are national or international firms and have multiple locations. In some cases, their Grangemouth location is within the INEOS or Forth Ports perimeter, while others have a base in the wider area.
Exports
The extent to which manufacturers in the cluster are exporting goods overseas or selling into domestic markets varies considerably, reflecting the diverse range of intermediate and final products manufactured in the cluster and associated customers.
Total exports from the cluster in 2023 was in the region of £422m, amounting to 1.3% of total Scottish international exports for the calendar year.
Data aggregated from four manufacturers BIOMAR, PIRIMAL, SYNGENTA, INEOS O&P) representing around £892m turnover. This does not include the Petroineos refinery, which largely manufactures fuel for domestic use.
Investment
Substantial and transformative investment has been committed to the cluster which shows an ongoing private and public sector commitment to operations at Grangemouth.
Private sector investment, such as INEOS’ plans to invest over £1 billion for a world-scale low-carbon hydrogen plant at Grangemouth, supports this and lies at the heart of the INEOS Grangemouth Net Zero route map.[21] This project complements other INEOS investment announced at Grangemouth in recent years, including a £500m infrastructure upgrade programme to the Forties Pipeline System.[22]
Significant investment has also been announced for the wider cluster, including Pirimal’s commitment to the construction of a new multipurpose state-of-the-art antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) manufacturing and aseptic facility in Grangemouth (as part of a broader £55m investment package).[23]
This tangible private sector investment at scale accompanies a significantly increased range of public sector investment initiatives from the Scottish Government and delivery partners, totalling £87 million in recent years. This includes:
- Our recently announced £25 million Grangemouth Just Transition Fund, initiated by the draft version of this plan, and focused on investment to support the development of initiatives emerging from Project Willow, as well as wider infrastructure investment, bespoke support for jobs and skills, and the wider Grangemouth community.
- Our existing £7.8m budget for Grangemouth in 2025/26, seeking to accelerate activities associated with this plan.
- £50 million contribution to the £100m Falkirk and Grangemouth Growth Deal that will support the development of Grangemouth Sustainable Manufacturing Campus, the Greener Grangemouth Programme, the Transportation, Renewables and Career Exploration Hub, led by Forth Ports, and a £4m Skills Transition Centre at Forth Valley College.
- Up to £450,000 to support a tailored skills intervention for all Grangemouth refinery workers facing redundancy.
- £6.6 million over recent years in support for early stage studies and development for low carbon technologies across the INEOS & Petroineos sites, that will help to unlock major private investment in transition operations.
Additionally, since 2020/21, Scottish Enterprise has directed £23m to companies in the Grangemouth Cluster that have either been delivered or where funding has been approved. This has progressed industry projects which have driven new jobs and company growth, enhanced manufacturing capacity, and made environmental improvements to company operations.
Skills
The Grangemouth Industrial Cluster has a significantly wide-ranging highly skilled labour base considering the breadth of operations across multiple operators. Both the active workforce, and education providers support a world-class workforce across multiple sectors, that is mobile and adaptable should opportunities arise elsewhere. An example of some of the job types is outlined below:
Grangemouth Industrial Cluster Job Types
- Engineer/technical manager
- Technicians and planners
- Engineering support functions
- Manufacturing support functions
- Skilled operatives in manufacturing
- Semi-skilled operatives in manufacturing
- Clerical and Administrative – HR, Admin, Learning and Development, Finance, Quality Control, supply chain, manufacturing development operatives
- Health and Safety operator
- Graduate roles
- Apprentice roles
- Managerial postings
- Supervisory postings
- Mariner
- Stevedores[24]
Key themes emerging from engagement has shown that:
Skills for the future may look similar – Safe and sustainable operation of sites in the future, for example at a hydrogen manufacturing facility or a bio-refiner, will likely require similar skills sets to those that exist on site today. Rather than requiring complete transformation, the same skills will likely be applied with tailoring to specific low-carbon processes. In order to shape appropriate support, this area will require further examination in future as the specific operational activities across the cluster become known in greater detail.[25] Where either new skills or skills adaptations are required, options to support the existing workforce should be considered.[26]
Addressing skills shortages is a priority – Stakeholder feedback has consistently flagged that skills shortages is a more immediate priority. Recruitment of engineers has proved more difficult for the petrochemicals industry as well as shortages of data scientists, IT specialists and welders and pipefitters.[27]
Highly skilled workers are in demand – The world-class training of many of Grangemouth’s staff means that opportunities are readily available across the UK and indeed further afield. This presents a risk to preserving skills and knowledge through the transition in Grangemouth.
Standardisation of accreditation may be needed – roles in oil and gas often require specific licences, but the pathways to transition into low-carbon sectors are less clear and more needs to be done to consider and support the transition of the workforce.[28]
There is a strong gender imbalance – Recent research shows that the workforce at Grangemouth is largely dominated by men. Whilst there is a more even gender balance at the graduate level, it is clear that fewer women are applying to jobs in Grangemouth. This should be considered in any activity promoting the future activity and jobs at the industrial cluster in outreach to schools, colleges and universities.[29]
‘We are trying to make sure that where the skills that already exist and the qualifications for the existing workforce already exist that money and time and energy hasn’t been wasted on doubling up … a welder is a welder! We need to ensure that if people have good skills that we are avoiding barriers to getting them into the workplace.’[30]
Infrastructure[31]
Grangemouth hosts a range of strategic power, water, gas, and other specialist services . Heat and power generation assets are clustered around Bo’ness Road and Earls Road to meet specific user needs as part of private-wire networks, and these have undergone recent renewal and investment. Wider utility infrastructure supporting the specialist activity within the Cluster is a combination of public (SGN, SPEN, Scottish Water) and private systems which have developed over time.
- Energy Generation – existing and proposed power plant across Grangemouth.
- Power Distribution – SPEN Distribution and Transmission infrastructure
- Gas Infrastructure (SGN) – SGN gas main assets including High, Intermediate, Medium and Low Pressure services to Grangemouth.
- Water Infrastructure (Scottish Water) – Scottish Water assets including Trunk and Distribution water mains, as well as rising mains and combined sewers.
- Effluent Treatment and Waste-Water – specialist effluent and waste-water treatment plants across the cluster.
- Strategic Pipelines – major Crude Oil, Ethylene, and Natural Gas pipelines linked to the Grangemouth cluster, as well as planned hydrogen and CO2 pipelines.
- Specialist Feedstocks and Private Utilities – private utility services and networks operated within Grangemouth to service specialist industrial activity.
For a detailed breakdown, please see the full report developed by Ironside Farrar which outlines the infrastructure baseline for the Grangemouth industrial cluster and adjacent residential assets.
Socio-Economic Overview
The Grangemouth area has been defined using 28 data zones (2011 boundaries) as per the map outlined in Figure 10 below.
Access to Public Transport
The town of Grangemouth has public transport challenges which is assumed to present impacts on access to labour markets or job opportunities offered by the industrial cluster, education providers and links to the wider central belt of Scotland. Overall, connectivity in the town incentivises greater use of private transport, which is assumed to increase transport emissions levels.
For workers at the industrial cluster who do not live in Grangemouth, this will most likely incentivise higher rates of commuting by car, than by public transport.
Poverty
The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) provides insights based on income, employment, education, health, access to services, crime, and housing. Grangemouth has five data zones in the 20% most deprived areas of Scotland. Areas across the town centre and residential communities in Bowhouse and Kersiebank are notable. However, the surrounding area is significantly less deprived. A Just Transition for Grangemouth should consider how the localised deprivation in the centre of Grangemouth can be addressed.
Income
We recognise that data on Scottish income statistics used in the previous draft plan is out of date, however an up-to-date dataset that is specific to Grangemouth does not currently exist.
Average full-time weekly gross pay for Falkirk residents has therefore been used below but it should be noted that it does not report more localised data.
Resident based income measures the income of people living in Falkirk, whereas workplace measures highlight those working in Falkirk, including those who commute from outside the area. The below indicates that at the local authority level, income for those living in Falkirk is generally lower than the national average for Scotland.
| Resident based | Workplace based | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Falkirk local authority area | Scotland | Falkirk local authority area | Scotland |
| 2018 | 628.0 | 658 | 682 | 659 |
| 2019 | 611.2 | 675 | 670 | 669 |
| 2020 | 638.1 | 687 | 688 | 685 |
| 2021 | 646.5 | 702 | 702 | 701 |
| 2022 | 688.9 | 734 | 689 | 730 |
| 2023 | 794.4 | 813 | 839 | 810 |
| 2024 | 787.2 | 841 | 844 | 840 |
Note: this is the mean rather than median Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, accessed on NOMIS
Education, Unemployment & Participation
Unemployment
The claimant count in Grangemouth is consistently higher than the Falkirk and Scottish averages. Ensuring there is no widening of this gap could be a useful indicator for the GIJTP.
| March 2018 | March 2019 | March 2020 | March 2021 | March 2022 | March 2023 | March 2024 | March 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grangemouth (28 data zones) | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% |
| Falkirk | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% |
| Scotland | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% |
Source: NOMIS
Source: Annual Population Survey (ONS) – 12 months to December of each year. Via Nomis.
SIMD 2020 Data
Employment deprivation is a measure of people in a population area who are involuntarily excluded from the labour market. Income deprivation is a measure of the proportion of people in an area who are out of work or who experience low earnings. Overall, Grangemouth has a higher proportion of working age people in employment deprivation and income deprivation than Falkirk and Scotland.
| Employment deprived | Income deprived | |
|---|---|---|
| Grangemouth (28 data zones) | 11.8% | 21.9% |
| Falkirk | 9.0% | 17.6% |
| Scotland | 9.3% | 18.7% |
Looking further into Grangemouth’s most deprived areas, approximately 27% of people were income deprived, 24% were employment deprived, and only 2.1% of young adults (17-21 years old) had entered into full-time higher education. Concurrently, 16% of young people (16-19 years old) were not participating in education, employment or training. Overall, these areas in Grangemouth rank lower than equivalently deprived areas in both Falkirk and Scotland more broadly.[34]
Education
The percentage of 17-21 year olds entering university figure above is drawn from SIMD 2020 indicator data, based on the 5 most deprived data zones only. Looking at all Grangemouth data zones, 5% of 17-21 year olds are in full time higher education.
Attendance at Grangemouth High School was 86.2% in 2023/24. This is marginally below the national average for secondary schools of 87.6% for the same year.
90% of school leavers at Grangemouth High School were in a positive destination three months after the end of the school year in 2023/24.[36] This is below the national average of 95.7%, and slightly down on the school’s performance in preceding years e.g. 2022/23 (93%).[37]
In 2024, 92% of 16-19 year olds in Falkirk local authority area were participating in full time education, employment or training, slightly below the Scotland average of 93.2%. While SDS do not publish this annual measure below local authority level, it is used as an indicator in SIMD 2020 and therefore can be extrapolated at data zone level – this indicates that across Grangemouth 7% of 16-19 year olds are not participating in education, employment or training, broadly in line with the national average.[38] The figure currently cited in the GIJTP reflects the 20% most deprived areas in Grangemouth only.
Community Perspective
It is clear that the industrial cluster has an economic and place-making role that impacts the wider town of Grangemouth.
However, engagement with community representatives has highlighted a general perspective that there is little benefit for the wider town in being situated so close to the cluster.[39]
Feedback through our ongoing consultation suggests that more could be done to harness the opportunities from industrial transition in support of economic regeneration for Grangemouth.
Given the intrinsic links between the industrial cluster and the wider town of Grangemouth, it is clear that whatever changes lie ahead through the transition to net zero, they will have an impact on the social, natural and built environment of the town.[40]
IGFIB aims to support a new relationship of participation with the community of Grangemouth, when taking decisions in support of the cluster. To support this objective we have synthesised community views and priorities for the transition to net zero. This includes an early persona building exercise, (provided in Annex C), as well as working closely with CVS Falkirk & District to ensure that diverse community stakeholders were consulted on the development of this Plan. The GFIB Programme Board includes Grangemouth Community representation to ensure that community priorities are a key consideration for decision makers across the cluster.
This has largely been made possible through partnership working with CVS Falkirk & District, to establish a Scottish Government funded Community Engagement and Participation Manager who has had a lead role in growing community networks, identifying priorities and championing community interests across the GFIB group as this plan has been developed.
Our public consultation identified that community members would like to see more direct engagement with wider issues in Grangemouth including housing, transport and health. These development areas are not the direct focus of the scope of this plan, however we have endeavoured to identify areas where the transition of industry can affect positive change, as they relate to the cluster’s transition to net-zero, as would be expected under just transition principles.
We have summarised key perspectives and priorities identified via community consultation on the next page. These views should act as a benchmark for addressing future community perspectives.
“[Local community members] are a really important stakeholder. I think we need to bring them along.”[41]
Community Views
Partnership Awareness
Increase the level of engagement between GFIB and community to ensure that local stakeholders are sighted on the Board’s activities. Greater clarity on the Board’s membership and workstreams would help community members to understand how GFIB functions, as well as provide a stronger sense of confidence among community members to engage with the work of GFIB.
Industrial strategy, not a green plan
The narrative around the Just Transition Plan should emphasise that Grangemouth will continue to have a future as an industrial centre. But its future will be in the green, clean, net zero economy. Already, INEOS and many other private sector organisations are investing in methods to reduce emissions and change aspects of their business offerings. Messaging around the future of the cluster should be transparent and clearly articulate how community members will benefit from the transition.
Expectation management
The Scottish Government should avoid making unrealistic promises in the Just Transition Plan. It should set clear, achievable long-term goals while also incorporating tangible short-term projects with associated jobs, all while maintaining a sense of realism so there is ‘buy in’ from the community and stakeholders. Tangible, practical impacts resulting from policy changes should also be communicated clearly to community members to ensure that they feel included in the journey to net zero.
Improving quality of life
The Just Transition Plan must consider the broader socioeconomic changes and challenges in the area. The quality of life for Grangemouth residents should be improved by investing in local health infrastructure, integrated transportation services, and enhancing the appearance of the high street. Our work should therefore identify how the industrial transition can contribute to a positive transition for the town of Grangemouth.
Education, skills, and jobs
Establish a holistic approach to lifelong skills improvement, including students and those undergoing career changes. This includes updating school curricula and fostering partnerships to promote STEM and trades education. The focus should not only be on promoting tertiary education but also opportunities for adult learning. A successful Just Transition Plan should prioritise job protection and skills development to ensure that as many existing workers as possible are included in future industries.
Incorporate existing industries and people
Avoid using the ‘green future’ as the key narrative driver. Instead focus on pushing the narrative of ‘21st-century industrial policy’ as the phrase is understood. Include existing industries in the transition plan. Encourage industry in renewable and green systems by providing incentives, acknowledging that these systems may entail higher initial costs. Design the plan to be dynamic and adaptable to accommodate future changes in technology and industry. This adaptability is essential for long-term success. Offer clear and decisive commentary with hard-stop points, enabling businesses to plan effectively in alignment with the Just Transition Plan to ensure Grangemouth continues to be the centre of science, innovation, industrial capacity into the 21st century.
Community Priorities
Overall, we have distilled our findings into the following priority areas for action, based on community input:
- Create well paid job opportunities for local people
- Review the existing skills development pipeline and address attainment outcomes for local people
- Alignment of the community, industry and public sector relationship
- Develop a collective vision for Grangemouth that boosts a national understanding of the area’s strategic importance
- Identify tangible opportunities to address the quality of life in Grangemouth, linked to the industrial cluster’s transition
- Jobs
- Skills
- Community Relationship
- with industry and government
- Narratives
- Quality Of Life
‘[Grangemouth has a] real massive sense of pride, of being part of something, of being part of that revolution, industrial revolution and all this.’[42]