Grangemouth Industrial - just transition plan: supporting a fair transition for Scotland's core manufacturing cluster

Grangemouth Industrial Cluster Vision 2045

Introduction

This Vision has been co-developed in partnership with industry, community, workforce representatives, academia and the Scottish public sector. It should be considered as a collective outline of our ambition for the future of the Grangemouth Industrial Cluster at 2045 and our commitment to help ensure that it continues to be an economic engine and source of local jobs and prosperity.

This vision provides a visual outline of what the industrial cluster could look like as a net zero manufacturing hub. Based on this outcome we have also outlined how these changes will positively affect the people living and working around the cluster.

The vision is a critical component of the Just Transition Plan which sets out the strategic vision for the future direction of the industrial cluster. It will guide all future decision-making, on policy development, investment and planning related to the Grangemouth industrial cluster. The outcomes described in the vision are fundamental components of the plan, as all actions and future activity must showcase how they align to these prerequisites.

Working with partners across industry, workforce and the community, GFIB will continue to ensure that the vision adjusts to the needs and aspirations of the industrial cluster. This work should continue to be considered iterative in nature, adapting to market conditions, social needs and environmental considerations through ongoing monitoring and evaluation.

The vision was developed through a series of workshops in the autumn of 2023 with industry, the public sector and academia. Additional feedback was collected in 2024 via engagement with community, workforce and local school pupils. The recent public consultation provided final inputs which have been considered in the refinement of the Vision. The process of co-designing this vision has also been informed by Scotland’s National Just Transition Outcomes:

• Jobs, Skills and Economic Opportunities
• Communities and Places
• People and Equity
• Environment, Biodiversity and Adaptation

‘Just as I am thinking about the future direction of my own business, I want to be actively involved in decision-making about cluster strategy. Basically, it’s about getting the [businesses] that are close together, physically, actually speaking to each other, which then comes down to what’s the business driver for spending time on that conversation rather than, you know, a different one?’^[4]

Vision Statement

‘By 2045, the Grangemouth industrial cluster will be a carbon-neutral hub, aiding Scotland in achieving its net zero targets.

‘The Grangemouth industrial cluster will become a net zero chemicals centre for Scotland and a leading production centre of the UK’s low-carbon energy industry, supporting the developing biofuels and hydrogen sectors, and playing a key role in ensuring Scotland’s energy security and economic prosperity.’

The cluster’s industrial partners will collaborate to produce advanced industrial processes, manufacturing and biofuels, which are exported globally, supporting the Scottish and UK economy. Through active collaboration with the public sector and community, the workforce will power the site: innovating, planning, building and managing the hub with respect and dignity. The Cluster will drive circularity through its value chains, supporting Scotland’s circular economy, providing for equitable prosperity across current and future generations.

‘This is like the next industrial revolution… 100 years from now people will look back at what we did…that’s exciting but we need to get it right.’^[5]

Transition Pillars

The five pillars represent the key industrial and economic areas of transformation that the industrial cluster will aim to achieve by 2045 as part of a Just Transition. They are based on significant input from key industry partners, informing the most viable future growth areas for industrial manufacturing.

1. Thriving industrial cluster, leveraging existing chemicals strengths and expertise

Grangemouth’s existing chemical, pharmaceutical and logistics industries will continue operations whilst innovating and adapting to market conditions, supporting Scotland’s economy, whilst reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Industry will look to work with other organisations on large-scale projects, where it makes sense, in order to achieve increased benefits from cross-collaboration.

2. A low-carbon fuel and energy hub for the future

Grangemouth will continue its legacy as a national fuel provider, supporting application of climate compatible energy for industry and transport. As a cluster it will build on the development and scale-up of renewable energy technologies, such as low-carbon hydrogen production, bio-fuels and synthetic fuels for applications including Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). Working with key stakeholders, we will ensure Grangemouth has the necessary energy infrastructure in place to secure Grangemouth’s role as a low carbon fuel and energy hub for Scotland and the UK throughout the transition to net zero.

3. An industrial carbon capture point for central Scotland

Grangemouth will be one of the key focal points for industrial carbon capture and storage (CCS), and will form a hub for the wider Scottish economy. Carbon capture projects will include Grangemouth-based industries and will explore options for join up with wider operators across the central belt. This will be a driver in reducing Scotland’s industrial greenhouse gas emissions, supporting the wider programme of carbon capture and storage to begin operating at scale. Further circular re-use opportunities will be explored through carbon capture and utilisation (CCU).

Carbon capture and utilisation refers to the opportunity to use captured CO² as a feedstock for use in chemicals, fuels and materials production. CCU has the potential, depending on the specific application, to create value in CO², reduce emissions and play a role in sustainable manufacturing. CCU can help develop a circular economy while providing opportunities for our workforces and economic benefits for a range of different sectors, which is why we support CO² utilisation.

4. Scotland’s central bio-manufacturing location

Grangemouth will play a key role in Scotland’s growing market for bio-based products, including exploring the feasibility of a variety of applications across sectors such as chemicals, pharmaceuticals and industrial bio-tech. Developing avenues where industry can use biological inputs, for example food waste or agricultural by-products, to industrial processes rather than fossil- and oil-derived inputs.

5. An innovative cluster, embedding circularity into production to minimise waste and leading new and advanced industrial processes and manufacturing – Grangemouth’s Unique Selling Point (USP).

Grangemouth will leverage its existing significant cluster advantages, including prime industrial land, excellent access to road and rail and shipping, as well as significant strengths in innovation skills and expertise, supported by a network of industry, public sector and academia, to position itself as a development centre in high-growth industries. Grangemouth will innovate, faster and more impactfully than competitors. Through a partnership approach, the cluster will continue exploring approaches that ensure it attracts new direct investment.

‘If we have a successful, thriving industrial complex with businesses around Grangemouth, the area will be prosperous, colleges will thrive, companies will invest in apprenticeship schemes and support the local universities and schools to make them grow. The key to it is having profitable industry at the hub.’^[6]

Just Transition Outcomes

The outcomes for the Grangemouth industrial cluster and the surrounding town are guided by the Scottish Government’s National Just Transition Planning Framework, which outlines four areas that Just Transition benefits should be achieved across, including: Jobs, Skills and Economic Opportunities, Communities and Places, People and Equity, and Environment, Biodiversity and Adaptation.

Jobs, Skills, and Economic Opportunities

1: Grangemouth continues to be a thriving manufacturing hub for the Scottish economy, increasing the scale and pace of innovation and acting as an anchor point for new and emerging industries of the future by driving research in new climate compatible manufacturing.

2. Grangemouth’s transition to net zero supports new and existing fair and well-paid jobs across its operations and supply chain in Scotland and the Grangemouth workforce is diverse and advances equality of opportunity for all.

3: A decarbonised Grangemouth serves a range of domestic and global net-zero markets, has better leveraged public and private investment, identifying areas where it can support the reduction of regional inequality, supporting a strong, dynamic and productive economy which creates equitable wealth and high-quality employment.

4: Grangemouth retains and develops its role as an integral part of the energy supply chain, enabling wider decarbonisation of e.g. the transport and industrial sectors, through production of climate-compatible fuels.

Communities and Places

5: Where a clear connection exists, industry/industrial decarbonisation supports the development of clean, safe, green, accessible and improved public and private spaces that are fit for purpose, build resilience and provide wider benefits for people, health and wellbeing, and biodiversity, in a balanced way.

6. Grangemouth has improved coordination of structural levers needed to support the transition in Grangemouth (planning; electricity supply; infrastructure) and the impacts of these developments on wider stakeholders are known and addressed.

7: Grangemouth has an enhanced relationship between community and industry, as well as other actors, with greater presence and visibility of industry activity and developments in typically non-industrial spaces. Grangemouth has an enhanced sense of pride in its industrial strength.

8. Communities are empowered. Strong community links ensure that a wide representative demographic are represented and meaningfully engaged and their views have been considered at each of the decision–making process regarding the long-term future of the industrial cluster and its impact on the wider place of Grangemouth.

People and Equity

9. Health, wealth and wellbeing of the residents of Grangemouth has increased, proportionally, alongside the economic and sustainable growth of the future industrial cluster.

10. Costs of industrial decarbonisation are shared fairly on the basis of ability to pay.

11. Opportunities to leverage the industrial cluster’s large energy demands in support of reducing local fuel poverty are fully explored and where opportunities are identified, all responsible actors across the public and private sector are obliged to maximise the success of specific projects.

12. Local residents have improved access to existing or future job opportunities stemming from the industrial cluster and are not disadvantaged by e.g long travelling distances to gain access to required education.

Adaptation, Biodiversity and Environment

13. Environmental regulation supports innovation and the transition to achieving net zero and a circular economy whilst maintaining high standards and levels of protection for communities and the environment.

14. The exposure of residents and workers in Grangemouth, but particularly the oldest, youngest and those with pre-existing medical conditions, to poor air quality is minimised.

15. Existing and future infrastructure is designed and embedded in a way that improves and restores habitats and ecosystems, and increases resilience to a changing climate, to meet the objectives of Scotland’s Biodiversity Strategy.

16. As an asset of national importance, innovative and appropriate options are identified and adopted for protecting and adapting the cluster and surrounding area from the impacts of climate change.

Partners

Just Transition will require ongoing collaboration between partners. Working together to breakdown traditional silos is essential to ensure the industrial cluster is an innovative and collaborative ecosystem. GFIB will become the forum for oversight and delivery of the Just Transition Plan.

1. Public Sector and Academia

• Grangemouth Future Industry Board
• National Government
• Academia & Subject Matter Experts

Will work in collaboration with cross-sectoral partners and communities to provide policy, regulatory clarity, and research-driven subject matter expertise to support the delivery of the Just Transition action plan. In parallel, the Government will invest in key priority projects that aim to address challenges posed by climate change, energy/grid security and reliability, skills and education gaps.

2. Industry

• Industry
• Workforce
• Unions

Will work collaboratively to develop and implement an investable cluster focused decarbonisation strategy that caters to a variety of industrial activities at Grangemouth. Through transformation and investment approaches that put sustainability at their core, this group will be critical to driving forward the manufacturing base. Working collaboratively, they will ensure the valuable skills base is maintained and grown into the future, ensuring fair work is at the heart of the transition.

3. Community

• Local Community Organisations
• General Public

Will work with GFIB and industry to develop, deliver, and provide feedback around relevant elements of the Just Transition Plan for the Grangemouth industrial cluster. Through engaging with the co-design process all partners will work directly with the community to capture a diversity of perspectives, particularly from previously hard to reach voices.

4. Skills Institutions

• Universities
• Colleges
• Apprenticeships/Work Based Learning

Will support the Grangemouth industrial cluster through conducting relevant research around decarbonisation, sustainability and development of innovative solutions and technologies. The skills system will also provide education, qualifications, upskilling offerings, work based learnings and career guidance/mentorship to local students and community members.

Transition Levers

The eight (8) levers described below are how the Just Transition will be delivered. Each lever is dependent on the others to be effective.

1. Governance

Grangemouth businesses reaching net zero targets by 2045 through individual organisational efforts, but also through symbiotic collaboration to identify opportunities to accelerate and share relevant knowledge where appropriate, both effectively supported by GFIB. GFIB will pursue an iterative co-design approach to changes in policy with regular feedback opportunities for industry and other stakeholders.

2. Sustainablity & Decarbonisation

An ecosystem whereby government, industry and the community work together, through the development of forums and avenues for agile collaboration and knowledge sharing, ensuring views are heard, and lessons are applied. It will also entail provision of strategy, regulatory alignment, and transparency for the industry regarding emissions, smart energy ecosystem, and the overall transition.

3. Jobs & Skills

Enhance the availability, quality, and consistency of the skills development and employment infrastructure pipeline required by the industrial cluster, while also broadening participation opportunities for local residents. This will involve end to end consideration of employment and training needs from the builders on-site, to the engineers and blue-key innovators. Existing workers will need to be brought on the transition journey to be prepared for the evolution of their roles.

4. Finance

Deployment of private and public sector funding will be required to invest the skills and technology to facilitate the transition. The UK Government and Scottish Government need to develop policy, legislation and funding avenues and options for existing/new programmes, attracting private sector investment and create an environment where new foreign and domestic investment funds can be secured to innovation around decarbonisation.

5. Technology & Innovation

Ensure that Grangemouth continues to be the center of major industry and a hub for new technology and applications. This entails fostering collaboration between industry and academic institutions to create a testing ground for new low carbon technology and leverage innovative R&D to emerge at the forefront of the transition to net zero. The cluster will develop in a technology-agnostic way and remain focused on its key sectors of fuel, energy, chemicals and logistics.

6. Place

Build on Grangemouth’s locational advantages and resident experience, including considering the potential for better industrial land use and facilities, transport connections, and other local infrastructure. Identify targeted developments that will help make the Grangemouth industrial cluster a vibrant, positive place for locals to live and work. While simultaneously, selecting place-based improvements to help facilitate the business needs of industry and their workforce.

7. Supply Chain Ecosystem

Initiatives focused on optimising the supply chain ecosystem across the industrial cluster. This will involve the current industrial cluster operators being incentivised to work with each other and with SMEs in the local area to build an efficient and resilient supply chain ecosystem. The cluster will adopt an efficient supply chain to support the target of a net zero 2045, and by utilising local resources to support the Grangemouth town and community throughout the Just Transition.

8. Communication

Producing and communicating out clear and consistent messaging regarding the overall narrative of the plan, and the underlying government policy and actions being taken to provide clarity and transparency for industry, the community and other stakeholders to be taken on this journey through targeted engagement and co-design activities to help gain relevant inputs, make decisions, and test ideas. As it’s a long-term plan, it will need to be adaptable and flexible to new successes and challenges.

S5 and S6 Pupils’ Perspective

In March 2024, Scottish Government organised a series of workshop discussions to discuss the Grangemouth Just Transition vision with S5 and S6 pupils from schools throughout the local area. These discussions provided a valuable opportunity to gather the views of young people toward achieving and delivering a Just Transition for the region and provided insight into how this generation see themselves as the future community and workforce for the area.

GFIB spoke to a range of S5 and S6 pupils representing the schools from the Falkirk and Grangemouth area including:

• St Mungo’s High School
• Larbert High School
• Grangemouth High School
• Bo’ness Academy
• Braes High School.

During our discussion we touched on issues including pathways to employment, climate change, and ways to improve quality of life throughout the local area. It became clear that young people in Grangemouth are cognisant of the climate emergency and were appreciative of the opportunity to have their views heard.

Pathways to employment in industry formed a significant part of our discussion.

From apprenticeships to graduate programmes for university leavers, pupils expressed interest in pursuing a range of job opportunities within Grangemouth.

In particular, the opportunities afforded by emerging technologies such as hydrogen production and CCUS emerged as a topic of interest for pupils, and especially those who expressed a desire to pursue university degrees in the sciences.

However, it became clear that information on pathways to employment was limited to word-of-mouth reports from family members who worked at businesses across the cluster, and to a lesser extent from research that pupils had conducted themselves. To this end, pupils expressed a desire to hear more about employment opportunities directly from employers. Moreover, the issue of gender imbalance within industrial roles was identified as having negatively impacted the interest of young women in pursuing these opportunities.

It was also clear that issues such as flaring, noise pollution, and a lack of investment in green spaces have impacted negatively on how young people feel about their surroundings. To this end, S5 and S6 pupils were encouraged that a Just Transition could see an improvement in the physical quality of the local area, indicating a desire for improved green spaces and better access to local infrastructure such as recreational areas and public transport.

Finally, in the course our discussion, it became clear that young people prefer to access information in a way that is easily accessible, concise, and relatable to their daily lives. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the phrase ‘Just Transition’ did not resonate strongly among the pupils we consulted. However, our discussion highlighted that a targeted campaign via social media platforms including Tik Tok may offer a way to meaningfully engage this valuable demographic in the Grangemouth Just Transition Plan in a way that is compatible with their lived experience.