GDP Quarterly National Accounts: 2025 Quarter 3 (July to September)

GDP growth in volume terms

Headline GDP figures

Scotland’s onshore GDP (i.e. excluding offshore oil and gas) is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in real terms during 2025 quarter 3 (July to September). This is revised up from the first estimate of 0.2% published on 26 November 2025.

This publication is open to revisions in all periods back to 1998 following the release of the annual supply and use tables for 1998-2022 in December. The main revisions to GDP growth are seen in 2022 due to the inclusion of more comprehensive data for that year, with GDP growth revised down from 5.0% to 4.0%. From 2023 onwards, there has been a small upward revision to recent trends, which can be seen in both annual and quarterly GDP growth rates. In annual terms, growth in 2023 has been revised up from 0.5% to 0.7%, and growth in 2024 has been revised up from 1.0% to 1.1%. Further information can be found in the revisions section of the publication. 

Table 1: Revisions to year on year annual GDP growth in volume terms compared to the previous estimates in the Quarterly first estimate publication

We also produce estimates of GDP per head (or per capita) which divides Scotland’s GDP by the total population. This is often used as a proxy indicator for living standards. In this release, as well as revisions to the GDP statistics, there have also been updates to include the latest mid-year estimates of Scotland’s population up to 2024.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have grown by 0.1% during 2025 quarter 3, unrevised from the first estimate. Annual real GDP per head is now estimated to have grown by 0.4% in 2024, revised up from 0.1% in the quarterly first estimate publication.

Taken over the last 12 months, compared 2024 quarter 3, Scotland’s GDP has grown by 1.2% in total, and by 0.7% per person. Meanwhile, in current prices (or nominal terms), without adjusting for inflation, the value of onshore GDP has increased by 5.0% compared to the same quarter a year ago.

The implied GDP deflator is the broadest estimate of inflation in the domestic economy and is calculated by dividing nominal GDP by real GDP. The GDP deflator covers the whole economy and not just consumer spending and also reflects the relative price of exports to imports. Compared to the same quarter a year ago, the implied GDP deflator has increased by 3.7%.

Output growth by industry groups

In 2025 quarter 3, output in the services sector grew by 0.7%, revised up from 0.5% in the first estimate. Output grew in ten of the fourteen subsectors and fell in three. The largest positive contributions to growth in the latest quarter were from professional, scientific and technical services, which grew by 2.3%, and administrative and support services, which grew by 1.9%. The largest negative contribution in services was seen in the other services subsector, which fell by 1.5%. 

Output in the production sector fell by 1.7% in the latest quarter, revised down from the first estimate of a 1.3% fall. The largest negative contributions were seen in manufacturing, which fell by 1.4% overall, and the electricity and gas supply subsector, which fell by 3.1%. Within manufacturing, the largest negative contribution was from manufacturing of chemical, pharmaceutical and refined petroleum products (-3.8%), followed by other manufacturing (-3.5%). The largest positive contribution within manufacturing came from the food and beverages subsector (+0.6%).

Output in the construction sector is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in the latest quarter, revised up from 0.1% growth in first estimate.

Figure 2: In 2025 quarter 3, the largest positive contributions to growth came from within the services sector, while the largest negative contributions came from the production sector

Weighted contributions to the headline quarterly growth rate of 0.3% by industry section (SIC 2007)

The weighted industry contributions to percentage change relate to how much a particular industry adds to the overall output growth of Scotland within a time period. This accounts for the size of the industry, defined by it’s share of the total economy, as well its growth rate. The growth rate of an industry is the percentage change within a specific industry, within that time period.

The downloadable GDP in volume terms tables include more detailed breakdowns of the services and manufacturing sectors, as well as estimates of GDP per head and annual GDP growth back to 1963.

Estimates of GDP growth in volume terms based on the expenditure approach to GDP (consumption, government expenditure, investment and trade) are also available in the downloadable summary tables. These figures are currently designated as official statistics in development and are not processed with the same level of quality assurance as the industry statistics. The expenditure components are principally published for use by analysts, for example as inputs to economic forecasts.

The Monthly GDP estimates give a more detailed indication of the trends for each industry sector, and include results up to November 2025 at the time of release.