US Export Plan - Sector Report- Renewables

Key subsectors of focus for the US market

Scotland’s extensive offshore wind and tidal resources, advanced technologies, and growing expertise in green hydrogen production, exemplified by initiatives such as Kintore Hydrogen in Aberdeenshire, further enhances Scotland’s competitiveness in the evolving clean energy landscape.

Offshore Wind and Floating Offshore Wind: Scotland is a world leader in this sector, particularly in floating offshore wind, and is developing a number of significant new projects which will further burnish credentials and capabilities^[15]. As the supply chains for these domestic projects develop further, there will be growing opportunity for exports to international markets, including America. However, given the current policy uncertainty in the sector in the USA, this will be a potential longer term time horizon opportunity for many exporters.

States with long-coastlines, high-wind speeds and deep coastal waters that are deemed unsuitable for traditional fixed-bottom turbines (such as the Gulf of Maine, California, and Oregon) are particularly well-placed for offshore floating wind. However, the offshore wind sector is currently facing significant turbulence due to federal level policy. Key measures include accelerated phase-out of wind tax credits, foreign entity restrictions and halted offshore wind leasing in the Outer Continental Shelf. This is directly impacting the viability of some projects, and the development pipeline has contracted considerably, falling from a planned 56GW to 25.4 GW as projects are stalled or halted^[16]. Uncertainty includes projects under construction facing stop orders that the developers are challenging in the courts. Examples include ‘Revolution Wind’ serving Connecticut and Rhode Island, compromising of 65 turbines, which is already 90% complete^[17] and ‘Sunrise Wind’ in New York which when operational will comprise 84 turbines, providing 924 megawatts power for 600,000 homes.

However, state-level commitments remain strong in certain regions and therefore long-term horizon opportunities are likely to be more concentrated in state-led initiatives rather than any federally backed programmes. California, for example, has stayed committed to offshore wind despite federal policy shifts. It has had significant investment in port infrastructure, including Humboldt Bay which is positioned to become the primary West Coast hub for floating offshore wind^[18]. The state has incorporated offshore wind ports into a five-year infrastructure plan and secured bond funding, including $475 million for ports and a $20 million award for the Port of Long Beach^[19]. The CADEMO floating project, a 60-megawatt venture in state waters targeting a 2028 operational date, remains unaffected by federal outer shelf policy reversals^[20].

Specific supply chain opportunities are reported to include refurbishment of nacelle motors for yaw and pitch control blade inspection, subsea imaging and cable route preparation, workforce safety trading and protective equipment, and export cable-routing to proposed substation landing points. However, in the short-term export opportunities tied to specific projects will carry significant risks given the volatile evolving federal landscape that is impacting major offshore wind projects, such as Leading Light Wind (New Jersey), SouthCoast Wind (Massachusetts) and Empire Wind 1 (New York).

Onshore wind: Onshore wind is another important economic and energy priority for the Scottish Government with an ambitious target of deploying 20GW of onshore wind capacity by 2030, which involves doubling capacity from the 2022 level^[21]. As set out in Scotland’s Green Industrial Strategy, the onshore wind workforce is highly skilled and opportunities in installation, consulting, operations and maintenance are anticipated to rise in response to growth ambitions. Export opportunities in onshore wind primarily relate to service around project development, with Scottish businesses currently exporting specialised engineering services encompassing wind farm design, wind resource modelling, construction management and financial due diligence^[22].

As noted in the offshore section, US wind is currently grappling with policy deadlines, tariff pressures and shifting market dynamics. Taken together, these pressures are forcing developers to accelerate builds and rethink supply chains. On top of that there is growing energy demands, with Wood Mackenzie’ projecting significant peak demand growth through 2030, highlighting the growing need for new wind^[23]. Against this backdrop, opportunities are emerging for Scottish companies. Scotland’s recognised leadership in wind power innovation enhances the appeal of its firms as partners for US states with expanding wind ambitions, creating strong potential for collaboration with US engineering firms seeking proven European expertise. In terms of states with significant activity in onshore wind, Texas leads the nation in wind electricity generation, accounting for 28% of the U.S. total in 2024^[24]. Other states with high wind energy generation include Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas.

Clean fuel: Clean fuel represents an increasingly important component of Scotland’s broader renewable energy capabilities within the supply chain. Scotland downstream biofuels sector is undergoing a major transition from traditional petrochemical refining towards advanced biorefining, driven by planned closure of the Petroineos Grangemouth oil refinery in Q2 2025. A £225m, government-backed plan (Project Willow) is exploring converting the site into a low-carbon hub for biofuels, including SAF and wood-to-bioethanol production^[25]. This includes plans for a new industrial-scale chemical production plant that will transform locally sourced by-products and waste from food, drink and agricultural industries in low-carbon green chemicals bio-acetone, bio-butanol and bio-ethanol^[26].

In addition, Scotland continues to make progress in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and other next‑generation clean fuels. In January 2026 there was an important step forward in SAF, with grant support being approved for a feasibility study to develop a low-power negative carbon SAF business in Scotland^[27]

Against the backdrop of mixed sentiment toward wind power in parts of the US, clean fuels may represent a more immediately promising near‑ to medium‑term route for Scottish exporters seeking to enter or expand within the US market.

Green Hydrogen and Blue Hydrogen: This sector will be a potential longer term time horizon opportunity for relevant exporters. In 2025, the US made a notable shift away from green hydrogen towards blue hydrogen, driven by its ability to scale quickly, use existing infrastructure and support progress in industrial decarbonisation. The clean hydrogen production tax credit, previously available up to 2032, is now only open until 2027, meaning over 75% of the US green hydrogen project pipeline is unlikely to qualify without accelerated progress^[28]. In California, the state's planned hydrogen hub, the Alliance for Renewable Clean Hydrogen Energy Systems (ARCHES), has had up to $1.2 billion in funding cancelled. In contrast, blue hydrogen is supported by the preserved and enhanced tax credit for carbon capture and storage. Therefore, the exportation of products and services related to blue hydrogen linked to CCS is accordingly likely to be more realistic in the medium term, with the caveat of uncertainty on federal funding.

According to a report by Scottish Enterprise (2024), Scotland is well positioned to export supply chain capabilities and skills in the low-carbon hydrogen sector, with over 1,000 companies already active in the supply chain^[29]. Particular strengths include hydrogen production, hydrogen mobility applications, cross cutting services (e.g. project development and operations and maintenance) and cross-cutting products (process and electrical equipment). While the Northwest European markets are the primary focus for hydrogen exports, the US represents an opportunity for early engagement and building supply chain relationships ^[30]. However, several challenges persist for exporters, including transportation complexities and the absence of a standardised global benchmark for hydrogen pricing, which contributes to market variability and uncertainty.

For those that are able to surmount these challenges, California, Texas, and Illinois are emerging as leaders in hydrogen production and consumption. California stands out, with over 50 laws and incentives supporting hydrogen adoption across transport, industry, and power generation. Louisiana also presents opportunities, benefitting from deepwater ports, an extensive pipeline network and an experienced workforce. However, while these areas are at the forefront of hydrogen, they have all been impacted by federal funding cuts to hydrogen hubs and therefore any opportunities will most likely still be in the longer-term.

Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage (CCUS): This sector, encompassing both CCS and the utilisation of captured carbon, is a potential near-to-medium term time horizon opportunity for relevant exporters, with less uncertainty than wind and hydrogen. The US is recognised as a leader in carbon management deployment. According to the latest annual status report from the Global CCS Institute, the US has 19 commercial-scale facilities operating with a capacity to capture over 22 million metric tons of CO². At a federal level there are some mixed signals on CCS, but Congress continues to support a key tax credit for captured CO², and has increased the credit for CO² utilisation and geological storage with enhanced recovery^[31]. Some state-level policy is starting to accelerate CCS with more states pursuing ‘primacy’ EPA approval to issue and enforce their own permits for Class VI wells (which are specifically designed for geological sequestration for CO² as part of CCS projects). There are currently six states now approved for Class VI primacy: Texas, Arizona, West Virginia, North Dakota, Wyoming and Louisiana. Texas was the most recently approved and also benefits from large-scale CCS hubs like the Houston CCS Hub which is targeting 10 million tons/year by 2030. Additionally, in 2025, 12 states have passed 24 carbon management legislative acts, with Louisiana leading the way^[32]. This recent activity continues a steady trend of state action to build out legal frameworks to govern CCS projects. Scottish companies with expertise in subsurface engineering, well integrity, monitoring technologies, and project management could therefore have opportunities in states with Class VI primacy and large-scale CCS hubs.

CCUS is a core component of Scotland’s net-zero strategy, and the Green Industrial Strategy has identified the development of a self-sustaining CCUS sector as one of the countries key economic opportunities. The country is particularly well placed for this due to the extensive North Sea geological storage capacity and existing oil and gas infrastructure that can be repurposed for carbon dioxide transport and storage. There are opportunities for some of the key players in the sector in Scotland to export CCS consultancy and engineering services and relevant technologies to the US. Areas of expertise include the CCUS ‘Scottish Cluster’, which brings together the Acorn CCS project, National Gas Transmission’s SCO₂T Connect Project and a variety of industrial, power, hydrogen, bioenergy and waste-to-energy business. There is also significant research capability, including through Scottish Carbon Capture & Storage^[33].

Geothermal: This sector is a potential near-to-medium term time horizon opportunity for relevant exporters. While Scotland has a less developed range of capabilities for the US market here than in some other subsectors, accessing geothermal energy involves techniques similar to drilling for oil and gas, creating opportunities for transferrable skills such as well design and engineering, geoscience services and studies, data interpretation and evaluation and hydraulic engineering^[34].

For those able to export products and service for the sector, the US is the global leader in many aspects of geothermal electricity and is continuing to invest in new geothermal plants. The rapid growth in AI data centres is one driver for this as it is being looked to as a viable alternative to fossil fuel.

States in the west of the US, where there are natural geological features that result in accessible hydrothermal fields, present greater opportunities for geothermal activity, with California and Nevada contributing more than 90% of current geothermal power generation^[35]. According to data from Clean Energy Pipeline, Nevada and California accounted for 43 geothermal projects in operation, representing 81% of all geothermal projects in operation across the US. However, a key risk is the strong level of domestic competition in both these states, where they already have well‑established geothermal industries and companies with decades of experience. This depth of local expertise could make it challenging for Scottish firms to differentiate themselves and secure a competitive foothold in the market.

Next-generation technologies, such as Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) which makes geothermal viable in regions beyond traditional hotspots, are also supporting growth in the sector, and widening the geographic areas of opportunity. Commercial viability for EGS is being demonstrated through projects like Fervo Energy’s Cape Station in Utah, which is planned to generate 500 MW of clean power in 2026 when it becomes operational^[36]. Nevada is also a hub for EGS innovation. Investment confidence in geothermal appears strong. US geothermal funding soared in early 2025, with $1.7 billion allocated in Q1 alone^[37]. Government support is also strong, relative to other renewable sources, with the OBBBA preserving tax credits for geothermal.

Grid optimisation and modernisation: Scotland has developed notable strengths in grid optimisation due to its unique energy landscape and ambitious renewable targets. This is particularly relevant to the US given the urgent need to meet rising electricity demand, build resilience in the grid and meet decarbonisation goals. Additionally, the rapid addition of solar, storage, and electric vehicles requires "smarter" grid-enhancing technologies (GETs) to manage load. The US Department of Energy estimates that the electric grid must more than double by 2035, while a study from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory suggests grid capacity may need to triple. Scotland’s proven track record in offshore wind integration and complex grid balancing gives Scottish companies credibility in US, particularly in offshore wind states such as California, New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts. These states are actively seeking software-driven optimisation tools to manage large-scale renewables and storage. Opportunities for Scottish companies include exportation of consulting services, software licensing, and joint ventures with US utilities and ISOs. Glasgow-based Smarter Grid Solutions is an example of a Scottish firm operating in the US in this subsector^[38].