US Export Plan - Sector Report- Renewables

Industry trends

The global outlook for renewable energy remains positive. Global clean energy investment is continuing to grow, reaching over $3 trillion in 2025^[8] and global renewable power capacity is expected to double between now and 2030^[9]. Particularly relevant to Scotland’s expertise, floating offshore wind installations have increased by 13% over the past year, albeit from a small base, and RenewableUK expect this is set to grow nearly ten-fold to 2,500 MW by 2030^[10]. However, despite global progress, US sentiment toward renewables has cooled under the current administration, with an increased focus on fossil fuels and advanced nuclear over wind and solar. This has had a significant impact on the sector. The forecast growth in US renewable power capacity has been revised down by almost 50% since 2024 reflecting policy, regulatory and market changes (See Figure 1)^[11].

Source: IEA (2025)^[12]

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), enacted in July 2025, significantly scaled back the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) by accelerating phase-outs of key tax credits, imposing strict domestic content and foreign entity restrictions, and terminating incentives for EVs and residential solar. These changes have led to cancellations of large-scale clean energy projects. For example, between January and October 2025, there were 51 large-scale clean energy projects cancelled, closed or scaled back, representing a loss of nearly $28.8 billion in private investment^[13]. The US clean energy economy is accordingly still in a period of significant instability resulting in heightened investor caution.

Despite this uncertainty, underlying trends highlight the potential for the sector to help meet future US energy demands. According to the World Resources Institute, US transmission capacity may need to triple from current levels, and interregional transfer capacity needs to expand fourfold. Key drivers include the surge in data centres and AI-related electricity consumption and the significant upgrades required for grid infrastructure. While some renewable and low-carbon technologies are facing policy uncertainty, in early 2025, US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright identified geothermal energy as a strategic growth priority, citing its potential to strengthen energy security, support AI-driven innovation, and stimulate economic development. The Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that next-generation geothermal can economically provide 90 GW of power by 2050^[14].