Scotland's Migration Service: early insights evaluation

2. Introduction and background

Purpose of this report

The Scottish Government’s (SG) Population Strategy, published in 2021, sets out a long-term vision to address Scotland’s demographic challenges. Scotland faces declining birth rates and an aging population, which threaten long-term economic sustainability and public service delivery^{[7] [8] [9]}. Scotland now has considerably more people aged 65 and over than people under 15.^[10] Inward migration from the rest of the UK and internationally means we have more people in younger age groups than we otherwise would, and without this inward migration Scotland’s population would be in decline with deaths exceeding births.^[11] This has been the case for the past 10 years.^[12] Scotland’s distinct demographic challenge means that the economic role of migration is particularly important to help offset the challenges arising from an ageing and shrinking population via boosting the size and proportion of the working age population. One of the ways in which the SG is using its devolved powers and other levers at its disposal to contribute to efforts to grow our economy and address demographic challenges is through Scotland’s Migration Service (SMS). SMS aims to help attract and retain international talent to Scotland by providing business immigration support to employers and investors, and personal immigration and reception support to individuals. The commitment to deliver SMS was initially set out within the ‘Attractive and Welcoming’ pillar of the Population Strategy:

“We will explore, through our talent attraction and retention service, how we can attract talent from across the rest of the UK, particularly in key sectors identified in our Inward Investment Plan”.^[13]

SMS is also highlighted in Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation (NSET), where the service’s attraction of key skills and talent is emphasised in order to help realise economic ambitions^[14] . Further detail on the policy context and the operating model for the service is included in the rest of this chapter.

SG analysts conducted a light-touch early evaluation of SMS in the autumn of 2025. Drawing upon monitoring data, user feedback, qualitative research, and economic analysis, the evaluation assessed to what extent the service cohered to the original policy vision, the early impact of the service, and the extent to which SMS delivers value for money. The evaluation was constrained by limited data availability in relation to user experiences and small and unrepresentative sample sizes. As an early insights evaluation, it was conducted less than a year after the full service launch in November 2024, which meant it was not possible to assess longer-term outcomes. Findings should therefore be interpreted in light of this short operational period as well as the data limitations, and should be treated as indicative rather than conclusive.

The early insights evaluation was conducted to assess emerging evidence on the implementation, impact, and value for money of the service during early implementation. This report provides insights to inform policy development and resultant required decisions in early 2026 regarding whether to re-procure operational supplier contracts. A re-procurement will therefore be needed in order for the service to continue to operate from the 2027/28 financial year onwards. A follow-up evaluation is recommended after two to three years of full operation to robustly assess the impact of the service and inform future policy decisions.

Policy context

Scope of the Scottish Government’s migration policy objectives

Immigration policy is reserved to the UK Government, meaning that the SG has no control over the operation of the immigration system. Immigration rules are set and implemented by the Home Office, a department of the UK Government. This places major constraints around the SG’s scope for action on immigration matters. Without direct powers over immigration policy, the SG’s wider strategic approach to migration policy focuses on three key strands:

• Making the most of the existing immigration system – supporting employers to navigate the system and individuals to come to Scotland (via Scotland’s Migration Service);
• Building a robust evidence base to support arguments for changes within the UK immigration system;
• Making the case for tailored migration routes for Scotland which reflect Scotland’s distinct demographic challenges.

This work sits within the International Relations, Population and Migration Division, part of the SG’s Directorate for Culture and External Affairs. SMS specifically sits within the first bullet above.

Inward migration and its impact on Scotland

Inward migration to Scotland contributes to a number of positive outcomes.^[15][16] Research shows a positive impact of migration on host countries – for example, a meta-analysis of 41 studies found a positive and statistically significant impact of immigration on the economic performance of host countries.^[17] Inward migration is associated with increased productivity^[18], and research from the Federation of Small Businesses (2019) found that one in ten SMEs in Scotland are immigrant led. Those who choose Scotland as their home help to grow our economy, increase our productivity and innovation, address skills shortages and make essential contributions to communities.^[19][20]

Migrants to Scotland are more likely to be of working age than the population in general^[21] and are therefore more likely to be working and contributing to public finances^[22]. Due to this, the Office for Budgetary Responsibility generally stresses increased net migration as a key lever for long-term fiscal sustainability.^[23] As referenced in the introduction of this paper, inward migration is also a key component to help address Scotland’s distinct demographic challenge, helping to support a sustainable Scottish population far into the future. National Records of Scotland’s (NRS) population projections highlight that the number of people of pensionable age is projected to increase dramatically, while our overall population growth and that of working age people is slower than in the UK as a whole.^[24] The size and total share of the working age population, those individuals aged 16 to 64, is very important for the economy and public services. In their Fiscal Sustainability Report, the Scottish Fiscal Commission (2025) projected that Scotland’s long-term GDP growth rate will be consistently below that of the UK, with the difference being driven by Scotland's more pronounced reduction in labour supply and demographic change. This projected demographic change has significant implications for communities, economies and public service planning and delivery. Scotland’s distinct demographic challenge means that the economic role of migration is particularly important, as it could help offset the challenges which will arise from an ageing and shrinking population in Scotland by helping to boost the size and proportion of the working age population.

For further information on Scotland’s distinct demographic challenge, the economic impacts of migration and the policy options designed to ensure that the migration system meets Scotland’s needs, please refer to the paper Migration – Meeting Scotland’s Needs published in January 2025.

Background to Scotland’s Migration Service

Operating model for Scotland’s Migration Service

Scotland’s Migration Service supports:

• People who want to move to and work in Scotland (referred to in this report as ‘pre-move migrants’ or simply ‘pre-movers’)
• People who want to settle in Scotland long-term and need help with the UK immigration system or other elements of building a life here (‘post-move migrants’ or ‘post-movers’)
• Scotland-based employers who want to use the UK immigration system to help fill vacancies
• Inward investors and entrepreneurs who want to set up or expand businesses in Scotland

SMS is delivered by two operational suppliers:

• Citizens Advice Scotland (CAS), which delivers information and advice to migrants and;
• Seraphus, which delivers information and advice to employers based in Scotland and inward investors.

The service provides:

• Two tailored digital advice platforms, one aimed at employers and investors, and one aimed at migrants,
• Immigration support for employers and investors via one-to-many resources (including webinars, how-to guides, and tutorials) and one-to-one advice sessions
• Immigration support and reception support for migrants through one-to-one advice sessions.

Online information and one-to-many resources are accessible to anyone who uses the internet, at no cost.

One-to-one advice sessions for migrants are available via video call, telephone call, or in-person at Citizens Advice Bureaux in Scotland. The appointments are free but users must meet certain criteria to be eligible for an appointment.^[25] Migrants are asked to provide some information about their circumstances via a booking form so that their eligibility can be assessed prior to the appointment being confirmed.

One-to-one advice sessions for Scotland-based employers and investors are available via video call or telephone call, for free. Employers and investors are asked to provide some information about their organisation via a booking form so Seraphus can assess whether they represent a legitimate and credible organisation prior to the appointment being confirmed.

Overview of policy development and service design process for Scotland’s Migration Service

Initial direction for the service was set in February 2022, with Ministers agreeing the service should focus on talent attraction and retention, and present a package in support of people moving to remote and rural areas and the specific needs of key workforces^[26]. It was confirmed at this stage that support for asylum seekers and refugees in Scotland was out of scope due to the existing provisions in place for these groups. The service’s aims, outcomes, and outputs were developed through the Ministerial Population Taskforce and engagement with successive Ministers with portfolio responsibility^[27].

A period of policy scoping and development work took place between 2022 and 2023. This included undertaking research, considering different service delivery models, and finalising funding through an organisational Spending Review Process. A procurement exercise was also undertaken to secure operational suppliers to deliver the service.

The intended outcomes and outputs for SMS were set out in a service specification, which formed part of the invitation to tender for operational suppliers, in 2023:

Table 1. SMS original intended outcomes and outputs from service specification

Outcomes - Employers can use the UK’s immigration system effectively and efficiently to help meet their skills and labour needs

Outputs - Immigration support for employers

Tier 1: a universal offer, available to everyone, to include the provision of up-to-date and accurate immigration information in plain English on the digital platform

Tier 2: a ‘one to many’ offer, with a range of products covering more detailed immigration information

Tier 3: a ‘one-to-one' advice service for employers in Scotland’s public, private and third sectors whose needs are not met through the first two tiers

Outcomes - People can easily access good quality information and advice to help them move to Scotland and settle into their communities

Outputs - Reception support for people moving to Scotland

Tier 1: a universal offer, available to everyone, to include the provision of up-to-date and accurate information about moving to Scotland and immigration advice in plain English on the digital platform.

Tier 2: a ‘one-to-one' advice service for people in the UK and people moving to Scotland.

Outcomes - People’s and employers’ needs are met through a digital platform

Outputs - Digital platform

Users will access the service in the first instance through an online portal or platform.

Following initial policy scoping and development, the SMS project entered into a design and delivery stage. Design and delivery of the service has taken place across five phases:

• Project initiation phase: December 2023
• Discovery phase and launch of interim service: January to April 2024
• Alpha phase: April to July 2024
• Beta phase and launch of full service: July to November 2024
• Continuous improvement phase: February 2025 until present

The terms ‘Discovery’, ‘Alpha’, and ‘Beta’ refer to digital service design phases used in Agile project management, which is considered the best practice approach for development of new government services.^[28] Within Scottish Government, the service design process must meet the Digital Scotland Service Standard (DSSS), a set of criteria the project is assessed against at each of the three stages.^[29] In order to meet the DSSS, the Scotland’s Migration Service undertook extensive user research at each design stage.

Table 2. Timeline for SMS 2022 - 2025

Date - February 2022

Milestones and Activities - Broad remit and aims of service agreed by Ministerial Population Taskforce

Date - Early 2023

Milestones and Activities - Intended outcomes and outputs set out through service specification

Date - March to December 2023

Milestones and Activities - Policy scoping and development phase

Date - December 2023

Milestones and Activities - Project initiation

Date - January to April 2024

Milestones and Activities - Discovery phase

Date - 27 March 2024

Milestones and Activities - Interim service launched

Date - April to July 2024

Milestones and Activities - Alpha phase

Date - July to November 2024

Milestones and Activities - Beta phase

Date - 19 November 2024

Milestones and Activities - Full service launched

Date - February 2025 to present

Milestones and Activities - Continuous improvement

An interim service was launched on 27 March 2024. This included a digital platform hosted on Scotland.org which contained high-level advice for migrants seeking to relocate to or settle in Scotland and for employers and investors looking to recruit internationally or expand their business in Scotland. As part of the interim service, advice appointments were also offered via Seraphus to employers and investors who were Scottish organisations who employ or want to employ international staff, overseas businesses interested in expanding their businesses in Scotland, or investors or entrepreneurs interested in setting up a business in Scotland. The migrant-focused element of the interim service offered appointments via CAS to international students in their final year of studies at a Scottish university or college and migrants living in Scotland for less than six months.

The full service launched on 19 November 2024. From this point onwards, the offer of tailored advice appointments were expanded to include migrants who:

• Want to work in Scotland and have a job offer
• Want to join a close family member in Scotland
• Have moved to Scotland and have arrived within the last 24 months
• Are currently living in Scotland who have limited leave to remain or enter the UK.

More recently, the service also began to offer appointments to migrants who had studied at a Scottish college or university in the previous five years and were interested in moving back to Scotland. Most of the outcomes and outputs set out during the scoping and policy development phase remained as policy aims during the service design process and into delivery of the live service. They were articulated in a theory of change during the service design process. This is discussed in further detail in chapter 2. A description of how outcomes and outputs changed during the design and delivery of the service is provided in chapter 4 of this report.