Publication - Progress report

Draft Sectoral Marine Plans for Offshore Renewable Energy in Scottish Waters: Socio - Economic Assesment

Published: 25 Jul 2013
Part of:
Marine and fisheries
ISBN:
9781782567509

The study reported here provides a high level socio-economic appraisal of the potential costs and benefits to activities that may arise as a result of offshore wind, wave or tidal development within the Draft Plan Options as part of possible future Scotti

383 page PDF

4.7 MB

383 page PDF

4.7 MB

Contents
Draft Sectoral Marine Plans for Offshore Renewable Energy in Scottish Waters: Socio - Economic Assesment
C4. Commercial Fisheries

383 page PDF

4.7 MB

C4. Commercial Fisheries

C4,1 Scoping Results

The results of the scoping assessment are presented in Table C4.1 (Offshore Wind), Table C4.2 (Wave) and Table C4.3 (Tidal) and indicate that more detailed assessment is required for all Draft Plan Option areas for Commercial Fisheries.

Table C4.1 Scoping Results for Offshore Wind

North North East South West West North West
OWN1 OWN2 OWNE1 OWNE2 OWSW1 OWSW2 OWW1 OWW2 OWW3 OWNW1
Loss of traditional fishing grounds Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Obstruction of navigation routes Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Fouling of fishing gear on cables or seabed infrastructure Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Consequential impacts to fish processors Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

Table C4.2 Scoping Results for Wave

North West North West
WN1 WN2 WN3 WW1 WW2 WW3 WNW1 WW4
Loss of traditional fishing grounds Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Obstruction of navigation routes Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Fouling of fishing gear on cables or seabed infrastructure Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Consequential impacts to fish processors Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

Table C4.3 Scoping Results for Tidal

North South West West
TN1 TN2 TN3 TN4 TN5 TN6 TN7 TSW1 TW1 TW2
Loss of traditional fishing grounds Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Obstruction of navigation routes Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Fouling of fishing gear on cables or seabed infrastructure Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Consequential impacts to fish processors Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

C4.2 Assessment Results - Estimation of Costs and Benefits

C4.2.1 Loss of Traditional Fishing Grounds

All of the Draft Plan Option areas potentially overlap with fishing activity, and therefore all have been scoped in to the assessment for the potential loss of traditional fishing grounds. The results are discussed below by region. The results are presented as the annual value of landings, based on an average from 2007-2011.

C4.2.1.1 South west

In the South West region, there are two wind Draft Plan Option areas ( OWSW1 and OWSW2) and one tidal Draft Plan Option area ( TSW1). The values of landings derived from these areas, scaled according to each development scenario, and broken down by gear type, vessel length and species group, are shown in Tables C4.4 for wind and C4.5 for tidal developments.

The total value of landings affected in the South West region is £21,635 (low scenario), £35,693 (central scenario) or £72,747 (high scenario).

This is predominantly attributable to wind, due to the larger areas involved: the total value of landings from the wind Draft Plan Option areas in the South West region is £18,013 (low scenario), £23,924 (central scenario) or £49,661 (high scenario); and from the tidal Draft Plan Option areas is £3,621 (low scenario), £11,769 (central scenario) or £23,086 (high scenario).

The impacts fall predominantly on the over-10m sector, and on dredgers and potters that are active in the region, targeting shellfish.

Table C4.4 Value of Landings Affected IN Wind Draft Plan Option Areas in South West Region Under Low, Central and High Scenarios, Broken Down by Vessel Length, Gear Type and Species Type (£)

Category Category Subset Development Scenario
Low Central High
Vessel Length 10m & under 4,518 5,954 12,211
Over 10m & under 15m 6,340 8,304 16,856
15m & over 7,153 9,662 20,588
Gear Type Demersal Trawl ( TR1) 120 145 255
Nephrops Trawl ( TR2) 1,662 1,995 3,444
Beam Trawl ( BT1 and BT2) 425 438 498
Pelagic Trawl ( PEL) 880 1,201 2,599
Other Trawl (inc TR3) 3 3 3
Gill Nets ( GN1) 48 57 93
Long Lines ( LL1) 1 2 4
Pots 7,227 9,799 20,999
Dredges 7,642 10,277 21,754
Shell Fishing by Hand 1 2 4
Species Type Cod 10 11 16
Haddock 1 1 2
Monkfish 2 2 4
Other Whitefish 816 931 1,432
Herring 878 1,199 2,594
Mackerel 3 4 9
Other pelagic 0 0 0
Nephrops 683 793 1,271
Scallops 3,895 5,284 11,335
Other Shellfish 11,726 15,698 32,999
Total 18,013 23,924 49,661

Table C4.5 Value of Landings Affected in Tidal Draft Plan Option Areas in South West Region Under Low, Central and High Scenarios, Broken Down by Vessel Length, Gear Type and Species Type (£)

Category Category Subset Development Scenario
Low Central High
Vessel Length 10m & under 880 2,861 5,612
Over 10m & under 15m 1,203 3,911 7,671
15m & over 1,537 4,996 9,800
Gear Type Demersal Trawl ( TR1) 15 50 99
Nephrops Trawl ( TR2) 204 662 1,299
Beam Trawl ( BT1 and BT2) 8 27 53
Pelagic Trawl ( PEL) 197 639 1,254
Other Trawl (inc TR3) 0 0 0
Gill Nets ( GN1) 5 17 33
Long Lines ( LL1) 0 1 2
Pots 1,576 5,121 10,046
Dredges 1,615 5,248 10,295
Shell Fishing by Hand 0 1 2
Species Type Cod 1 2 4
Haddock 0 0 1
Monkfish 0 1 2
Other Whitefish 70 229 449
Herring 196 638 1,251
Mackerel 1 2 5
Other pelagic 0 0 0
Nephrops 67 219 429
Scallops 851 2,767 5,427
Other Shellfish 2,434 7,911 15,518
Total 3,621 11,769 23,086

The value of landings needs to be converted to changes in GVA to take account of the effects of the displacement of current (and future) output due to the footprint of the renewable technologies. This is based on the potential direct reduction in GVA due to the potential reduction in the value of landings. The Seafish Industry Authority Multi-year Fleet Economic Performance Dataset (Seafish, 2013) has been used as the basis for this calculation. However, directly comparable data on fleet segments and gear types were not available. Therefore, a GVA ratio of 39% has been used, based on the average GVA % across all Scottish fleet segments to revise the Present Value ( PV) estimate of the value of landings.

The knock-on effects on GVA have then been estimated using the Type I and Type II GVA multipliers (rather than GVA effect as for the other sectors). Data on landings have been used to inform the consideration of downstream supply chain effects (such as impacts on fish processors) but no estimate has been made of the GVA impact on processors. Instead, this is assessed as part of the (qualitative) social assessment.

C4.2.1.2 West

In the West region, there are three wind Draft Plan Option areas ( OWW1, OWW2 and OWW3), four wave Draft Plan Option areas ( WW1, WW2, WW3, WW4) and two tidal Draft Plan Option areas ( TW1, TW2). The values of landings derived from these areas, scaled according to each development scenario, and broken down by gear type, vessel length and species group, are shown in Tables C4.6 for wind, C4.7 for wave and C4.8 for tidal developments.

Table C4.6 Value of Landings Affected in Wind Draft Plan Option Areas in West Region Under Low, Central and High Scenarios, Broken Down by Vessel Length, Gear Type and Species Type (£)

Category Category Subset Development Scenario
Low Central High
Vessel Length 10m & under 14,101 34,076 73,734
Over 10m & under 15m 11,962 28,908 62,552
15m & over 22,893 55,324 119,709
Gear Type Demersal Trawl ( TR1) 2,058 4,974 10,762
Nephrops Trawl ( TR2) 12,384 29,928 64,757
Beam Trawl ( BT1 and BT2) 0 0 1
Pelagic Trawl ( PEL) 1,988 4,805 10,398
Other Trawl (inc TR3) 22 52 113
Gill Nets ( GN1) 43 105 227
Long Lines ( LL1) 6 14 30
Pots 24,754 59,822 129,443
Dredges 6,879 16,623 35,969
Shell Fishing by Hand 821 1,985 4,294
Species Type Cod 51 122 265
Haddock 597 1,443 3,122
Monkfish 759 1,834 3,969
Other Whitefish 1,713 4,140 8,959
Herring 535 1,293 2,797
Mackerel 1,337 3,232 6,993
Other pelagic 124 299 646
Nephrops 12,942 31,276 67,674
Scallops 6,917 16,716 36,171
Other Shellfish 23,981 57,953 125,399
Total 48,955 118,309 255,995

Table C4.7 Value of Landings Affected in Wave Draft Plan Option Areas in West Region Under Low, Central and High Scenarios, Broken Down by Vessel Length, Gear Type and Species Type (£)

Category Category Subset Development Scenario
Low Central High
Vessel Length 10m & under 1,350 2,299 4,527
Over 10m & under 15m 1,112 1,665 3,228
15m & over 1,943 3,484 6,852
Gear Type Demersal Trawl ( TR1) 120 199 379
Nephrops Trawl ( TR2) 1,363 2,229 4,349
Beam Trawl ( BT1 and BT2) 0 0 0
Pelagic Trawl ( PEL) 70 163 326
Other Trawl (inc TR3) 2 3 6
Gill Nets ( GN1) 2 3 6
Long Lines ( LL1) 0 0 0
Pots 2,222 3,711 7,280
Dredges 494 1,003 2,006
Shell Fishing by Hand 132 136 254
Species Type Cod 5 9 18
Haddock 31 57 108
Monkfish 53 126 251
Other Whitefish 103 191 368
Herring 35 81 161
Mackerel 26 73 148
Other pelagic 9 10 19
Nephrops 1,514 2,324 4,514
Scallops 498 1,010 2,019
Other Shellfish 2,130 3,568 7,000
Total 4,405 7,448 14,606

Table C4.8 Value of Landings Affected in Tidal Draft Plan Option Areas in West Region Under Low, Central and High Scenarios, Broken Down by Vessel Length, Gear Type and Species Type (£)

Category Category Subset Development Scenario
Low Central High
Vessel Length 10m & under 1,647 5,181 10,163
Over 10m & under 15m 1,281 3,983 7,813
15m & over 3,241 9,733 19,091
Gear Type Demersal Trawl ( TR1) 27 80 156
Nephrops Trawl ( TR2) 2,637 7,645 14,996
Beam Trawl ( BT1 and BT2) - - -
Pelagic Trawl ( PEL) 125 375 736
Other Trawl (inc TR3) 1 4 8
Gill Nets ( GN1) 0 0 0
Long Lines ( LL1) 3 10 19
Pots 2,046 6,601 12,948
Dredges 1,300 4,096 8,035
Shell Fishing by Hand 29 86 169
Species Type Cod 5 14 28
Haddock 22 65 127
Monkfish 2 6 11
Other Whitefish 28 82 160
Herring 78 237 465
Mackerel 28 80 157
Other pelagic 0 0 0
Nephrops 2,696 7,819 15,338
Scallops 1,273 4,021 7,887
Other Shellfish 2,039 6,574 12,895
Total 6,170 18,898 37,069

The total value of landings affected in the West region is £59,530 (low scenario), £144,654 (central scenario) or £307,670 (high scenario).

This is predominantly attributable to wind, due to the larger areas involved. The value of landings affected from the wind Draft Plan Option areas in the West region (central development scenario) is £118,309, from the wave Draft Plan Option areas is £7,448, and from the tidal Draft Plan Option areas is £18,898. The impact on fisheries from wave energy development in the West region is expected to be minimal, due to the small areas expected to be developed under the three scenarios. Under the high scenario, the total value of landings affected is £10,021, £3,479 of which is attributable to potters within area WW1. This is likely to be an over-estimate, as provisional ScotMap data show that the majority of under-15m average earnings are from areas closer to shore within the relevant ICES rectangle ( Figure B4.2). The impact from tidal energy development in the West region is also expected to be minimal.

The impacts in the West region are predominantly on potters (accounting for 49% of the value of landings affected) and Nephrops trawlers (accounting for 28% of the value of landings affected). The majority of the impacts arise as a result of area OWW1 for wind development (accounting for 56% of the value of landings affected). However, it should be noted that the actual impact of area OWW1 may be lower, since this Draft Plan Option area for wind development intersects with several ICES rectangles. The value of landings from these ICES rectangles has been used to calculate the potential value of landings affected from the Draft Plan Option area. When the value of landings based on VMS effort for the over-15m vessels is considered, which provides a finer-scale resolution of the distribution of the areas from which landings are derived, area OWW1 is not an intensively-fished area ( Figure B4.1). Furthermore, ScotMap data, which provide greater resolution for the under-15m vessels, do not show intensive fishing activity in this area ( Figure B4.2).

Although the impacts are predominantly on the over-15m sector in terms of value of landings affected, the relative impact on overall earnings may be significant for the smaller-scale sectors.

The value of landings needs to be converted to changes in GVA to take account of the effects of the displacement of current (and future) output due to the footprint of the renewable technologies. This is based on the potential direct reduction in GVA due to the potential reduction in the value of landings. The Seafish Industry Authority Multi-year Fleet Economic Performance Dataset (Seafish, 2013) has been used as the basis for this calculation. However, directly comparable data on fleet segments and gear types were not available. Therefore, a GVA ratio of 39% has been used, based on the average GVA % across all Scottish fleet segments to revise the Present Value ( PV) estimate of the value of landings.

The knock-on effects on GVA have then been estimated using the Type I and Type II GVA multipliers (rather than GVA effect as for the other sectors). Data on landings have been used to inform the consideration of downstream supply chain effects (such as impacts on fish processors) but no estimate has been made of the GVA impact on processors. Instead, this is assessed as part of the (qualitative) social assessment.

C4.2.1.3 North West

In the North West region, there is one wind Draft Plan Option area ( OWNW1) and one wave Draft Plan Option area ( WNW1). No tidal energy development is foreseen. The values of landings derived from these areas, scaled according to each development scenario, and broken down by gear type, vessel length and species group, are shown in Table C4.9 for wind and Table C4.10 for wave.

Table C4.9 Value of Landings Affected in Wind Draft Plan Option Areas in North West Region Under Low, Central and High Scenarios, Broken Down by Vessel Length, Gear Type and Species Type (£)

Category Category Subset Development Scenario
Low Central High
Vessel Length 10m & under 746 1,802 3,899
Over 10m & under 15m 2,823 6,823 14,763
15m & over 38,792 93,749 202,852
Gear Type Demersal Trawl ( TR1) 4,851 11,722 25,364
Nephrops Trawl ( TR2) 1,085 2,622 5,674
Beam Trawl ( BT1 and BT2) 0 0 0
Pelagic Trawl ( PEL) 26,479 63,990 138,461
Other Trawl (inc TR3) 528 1,275 2,760
Gill Nets ( GN1) 0 0 0
Long Lines ( LL1) 10 24 53
Pots 9,103 21,998 47,599
Dredges 307 741 1,604
Shell Fishing by Hand 0 0 0
Species Type Cod 63 151 328
Haddock 1,839 4,443 9,614
Monkfish 221 533 1,154
Other Whitefish 2,690 6,500 14,064
Herring 19,880 48,044 103,957
Mackerel 7,084 17,119 37,043
Other pelagic 8 19 41
Nephrops 1,035 2,502 5,415
Scallops 307 741 1,604
Other Shellfish 9,236 22,320 48,296
Total 42,361 102,373 221,514

Table C4.10 Value of Landings Affected in Wave Draft Plan Option Areas in North West Region Under Low, Central and High Scenarios, Broken Down by Vessel Length, Gear Type and Species Type (£)

Category Category Subset Development Scenario
Low Central High
Vessel Length 10m & under 1,059 2,928 5,919
Over 10m & under 15m 398 1,101 2,225
15m & over 10,154 28,074 56,745
Gear Type Demersal Trawl ( TR1) 1,033 2,856 5,772
Nephrops Trawl ( TR2) 723 1,998 4,038
Beam Trawl ( BT1 and BT2) 0 0 0
Pelagic Trawl ( PEL) 7,240 20,016 40,457
Other Trawl (inc TR3) 144 399 807
Gill Nets ( GN1) 22 62 125
Long Lines ( LL1) 104 287 579
Pots 2,250 6,222 12,576
Dredges 61 168 339
Shell Fishing by Hand 35 98 198
Species Type Cod 19 52 106
Haddock 227 627 1,268
Monkfish 262 726 1,467
Other Whitefish 644 1,780 3,598
Herring 502 1,387 2,804
Mackerel 6,746 18,652 37,701
Other pelagic 127 352 712
Nephrops 1,012 2,799 5,658
Scallops 98 271 547
Other Shellfish 1,974 5,456 11,029
Total 11,612 32,103 64,890

The total value of landings affected in the North West region is £53,973 (low scenario), £134,477 (central scenario) or £286,404 (high scenario).

This is predominantly attributable to the wind Draft Plan Option area, OWNW1 (76% of the value of landings affected, £102,373 under the central scenario). Although the wave energy Draft Plan Option area is a very large area, the actual proportion of the overall area expected to be developed under each of the development scenarios, is very small (less than 1% in all three development scenarios), and the majority of the value of landings from the North West region as a whole is from the pelagic sector which is active further offshore.

The impacts in the North West region are predominantly on the pelagic sector (£63,990 under the central development scenario, accounting for 62% of the value of landings affected in the region), and to a lesser extent on potters (accounting for 21% of the value of landings affected) and demersal (whitefish) trawlers (accounting for 11% of the value of landings affected). As a result, the over-15m sector is most affected, and those vessels targeting herring (predominantly in the wind OWNW1 area) and mackerel (predominantly in the wave WNW1 area). Provisional ScotMap data indicate that the Draft Plan Option areas are not significant areas for earnings for the under-15m sector.

The value of landings needs to be converted to changes in GVA to take account of the effects of the displacement of current (and future) output due to the footprint of the renewable technologies. This is based on the potential direct reduction in GVA due to the potential reduction in the value of landings. The Seafish Industry Authority Multi-year Fleet Economic Performance Dataset (Seafish, 2013) has been used as the basis for this calculation. However, directly comparable data on fleet segments and gear types were not available. Therefore, a GVA ratio of 39% has been used, based on the average GVA % across all Scottish fleet segments to revise the Present Value ( PV) estimate of the value of landings.

The knock-on effects on GVA have then been estimated using the Type I and Type II GVA multipliers (rather than GVA effect as for the other sectors). Data on landings have been used to inform the consideration of downstream supply chain effects (such as impacts on fish processors) but no estimate has been made of the GVA impact on processors. Instead, this is assessed as part of the (qualitative) social assessment.

C4.2.1.4 North

In the North region, there are two wind Draft Plan Option areas ( OWN1 and OWN2), three wave Draft Plan Option areas ( WN1, WN2 and WN3) and seven tidal Draft Plan Option areas ( TN1, TN2, TN3, TN4, TN5, TN6 and TN7). These areas are mainly focussed around Shetland, Pentland Firth and Orkney. The values of landings derived from these areas, scaled according to each development scenario, and broken down by gear type, vessel length and species group, are shown in Tables C4.11 for wind, C4.12 for wave and C4.13 for tidal developments.

Table C4.11 Value of Landings Affected in Wind Draft Plan Option Areas in the North Region Under Low, Central and High Scenarios, Broken Down by Vessel length, Gear Type and Species Type (£)

Category Category subset Development Scenario
Low Central High
Vessel Length 10m & under 37,556 90,761 196,387
Over 10m & under 15m 13,174 31,836 68,887
15m & over 233,505 564,303 1,221,036
Gear Type Demersal Trawl ( TR1) 106,391 257,111 556,335
Nephrops Trawl ( TR2) 8,758 21,165 45,797
Beam Trawl ( BT1 and BT2) 23 54 118
Pelagic Trawl ( PEL) 120,042 290,101 627,717
Other Trawl (inc TR3) 5,469 13,216 28,597
Gill Nets ( GN1) 438 1,058 2,290
Long Lines ( LL1) 2,432 5,878 12,719
Pots 34,753 83,986 181,728
Dredges 4,226 10,212 22,097
Shell Fishing by Hand 1,172 2,832 6,128
Species Type Cod 21,057 50,889 110,112
Haddock 22,521 54,425 117,764
Monkfish 25,538 61,717 133,543
Other Whitefish 34,771 84,030 181,824
Herring 23,562 56,941 123,208
Mackerel 101,239 244,661 529,395
Other pelagic 733 1,772 3,834
Nephrops 11,316 27,347 59,174
Scallops 5,422 13,104 28,354
Other Shellfish 38,075 92,015 199,101
Total 284,235 686,900 1,486,310

Table C4.12 Value of Landings Affected in Wave Draft Plan Option Areas in the North Region Under Low, Central and High Scenarios, Broken Down by Vessel Length, Gear Type and Species Type (£)

Category Category subset Development Scenario
Low Central High
Vessel Length 10m & under 2,171 5,551 11,220
Over 10m & under 15m 1,211 3,082 6,229
15m & over 8,780 23,283 47,061
Gear Type Demersal Trawl ( TR1) 4,446 11,914 24,082
Nephrops Trawl ( TR2) 141 369 746
Beam Trawl ( BT1 and BT2) 1 3 7
Pelagic Trawl ( PEL) 3,434 9,137 18,468
Other Trawl (inc TR3) 402 1,055 2,132
Gill Nets ( GN1) 14 38 77
Long Lines ( LL1) 108 294 594
Pots 2,673 6,672 13,485
Dredges 828 2,161 4,368
Shell Fishing by Hand 104 245 495
Species Type Cod 947 2,575 5,205
Haddock 1,047 2,830 5,719
Monkfish 1,093 2,859 5,779
Other Whitefish 1,219 3,270 6,609
Herring 1,420 3,537 7,150
Mackerel 2,339 6,464 13,066
Other pelagic 27 74 150
Nephrops 305 804 1,624
Scallops 915 2,376 4,802
Other Shellfish 2,851 7,127 14,406
Total 12,162 31,916 64,510

Table C4.13 Value of Landings Affected in Tidal Draft Plan Option Areas in the North Region Under Low, Central and High Scenarios, Broken Down by Vessel Length, Gear Type and Species Type (£)

Category Category subset Development Scenario
Low Central High
Vessel Length 10m & under 4,005 9,750 19,125
Over 10m & under 15m 4,321 10,864 21,309
15m & over 16,535 28,028 54,977
Gear Type Demersal Trawl ( TR1) 5,611 9,497 18,629
Nephrops Trawl ( TR2) 96 261 512
Beam Trawl ( BT1 and BT2) 0 0 0
Pelagic Trawl ( PEL) 10,186 16,747 32,850
Other Trawl (inc TR3) 258 355 697
Gill Nets ( GN1) 159 178 349
Long Lines ( LL1) 107 146 286
Pots 6,697 17,517 34,360
Dredges 1,007 1,984 3,891
Shell Fishing by Hand 659 1,740 3,414
Species Type Cod 1,113 1,676 3,288
Haddock 1,250 2,174 4,264
Monkfish 1,788 3,596 7,054
Other Whitefish 1,535 2,109 4,137
Herring 4,056 9,129 17,906
Mackerel 6,402 7,946 15,586
Other pelagic 11 28 56
Nephrops 142 314 616
Scallops 1,598 3,503 6,871
Other Shellfish 6,966 18,167 35,635
Total 24,861 48,642 95,412

The total value of landings affected in the North region is the greatest of any region - £321,258 (low scenario), £767,457 (central scenario) or £1,646,232 (high scenario).

This is predominantly attributable to the two wind areas (together accounting for 88% of the value of landings affected), which occupy much larger areas than the wave and tidal areas under the three development scenarios. The Draft Plan Option area OWN1 accounts for £334,161 of the value of landings affected under the central scenario, mainly due to impacts on demersal (whitefish) trawlers (£133,202), the pelagic sector (£95,203) and potters (£83,281). Area OWN2 account for £351,452 of the value of landings affected under the central scenario, mainly due to impacts on the pelagic sector (£194,898) and demersal (whitefish) trawlers (£123,909). These impacts are predominantly on the over-15m sector (£564,303 for both areas combined under the central scenario), but impacts on smaller vessels may also be significant (£122,597 for under-15m vessels under the central scenario, predominantly the under-10m vessels).

The impact of the wind Draft Plan Option areas in the North region would be predominantly on the pelagic sector (targeting herring and mackerel, accounting for 44% of the value of landings affected), whitefish sector (accounting for 37% of the value of landings affected - cod, haddock, monkfish and other whitefish), and to a lesser extent shellfish (accounting for 19% of the value of landings affected).

While the development of wave and tidal energy is often a concern for the under-10m and under-15m vessels, because these technologies are usually deployed closer to the coast, the actual value of landings expected to be affected is not great: £5,551 for the wave Draft Plan Option areas under the central scenario, and £9,750 for the tidal Draft Plan Option areas under the central scenario. WN2, WN3, TN1 and TN4 have the largest impact on the under-10m sector, but even the most significant of these, TN1, is only expected to impact on £4,895 worth of landings from the under-10m sector under the central scenario. Nevertheless, the ScotMap data ( Figure B4.2) do show that areas TN1 and TN2 overlap with important fishing grounds for the under-15m sector, and if these areas are taken forward for development, the location of arrays should be planned in close consultation with the fishing industry in order to minimise any potential impacts.

The tidal areas are most likely to impact on shellfish fisheries. 45% of the value of landings affected by the tidal Draft Plan Option areas are attributed to shellfish (£21,984 under the central scenario). 35% of the value of landings affected by the tidal Draft Plan Option areas would be on herring and mackerel, and 20% on whitefish landings.

ScotMap data do not cover Shetland, so it is difficult to assess the relative importance of the Draft Plan Option areas for the under-15m fleet beyond the resolution provided by the ICES rectangle-based data, however the area surrounding Shetland is a valuable fishing ground for under-15m vessels, particularly to the east of Shetland where Draft Plan Option area OWN2 is located.

The value of landings needs to be converted to changes in GVA to take account of the effects of the displacement of current (and future) output due to the footprint of the renewable technologies. This is based on the potential direct reduction in GVA due to the potential reduction in the value of landings. The Seafish Industry Authority Multi-year Fleet Economic Performance Dataset (Seafish, 2013) has been used as the basis for this calculation. However, directly comparable data on fleet segments and gear types were not available. Therefore, a GVA ratio of 39% has been used, based on the average GVA % across all Scottish fleet segments to revise the Present Value ( PV) estimate of the value of landings.

The knock-on effects on GVA have then been estimated using the Type I and Type II GVA multipliers (rather than GVA effect as for the other sectors). Data on landings have been used to inform the consideration of downstream supply chain effects (such as impacts on fish processors) but no estimate has been made of the GVA impact on processors. Instead, this is assessed as part of the (qualitative) social assessment

C4.2.1.5 North East

In the North East region, there are only two wind Draft Plan Option areas ( OWNE1 and OWNE2); no wave or tidal energy development is foreseen. The values of landings derived from these areas, scaled according to each development scenario, and broken down by gear type, vessel length and species group, are shown in Table C4.14.

Table C4.14 Value of Landings Affected in Wind Draft Plan Option Areas in North East Region Under Low, Central and High Scenarios, Broken Down by Vessel Length, Gear Type and Species Type (£)

Category Category subset Development Scenario
Low Central High
Vessel Length 10m & under 18,548 44,824 96,990
Over 10m & under 15m 4,121 9,960 21,550
15m & over 45,130 109,065 235,995
Gear Type Demersal Trawl ( TR1) 11,417 27,591 59,702
Nephrops Trawl ( TR2) 11,001 26,586 57,526
Beam Trawl ( BT1 and BT2) 0 0 0
Pelagic Trawl ( PEL) 3,917 9,466 20,482
Other Trawl (inc TR3) 2,444 5,905 12,778
Gill Nets ( GN1) 0 0 0
Long Lines ( LL1) 3,450 8,337 18,039
Pots 14,975 36,189 78,306
Dredges 20,615 49,819 107,798
Shell Fishing by Hand 1 1 3
Species Type Cod 797 1,926 4,168
Haddock 8,893 21,491 46,502
Monkfish 1,417 3,424 7,410
Other Whitefish 2,029 4,904 10,611
Herring 3,700 8,942 19,349
Mackerel 4,319 10,437 22,584
Other pelagic 0 0 0
Nephrops 9,078 21,940 47,473
Scallops 20,468 49,464 107,031
Other Shellfish 17,117 41,365 89,506
Total 67,818 163,894 354,633

The total value of landings affected from the Draft Plan Option areas is between £67,818 (low scenario) and £354,633 (high scenario). This is predominantly attributable to Draft Plan Option area OWNE2 (63% of the value of landings affected), which overlaps a more valuable fishing area than OWNE1.

The impacts are predominantly on the over-15m sector, and predominantly on dredgers (30% of the value of landings affected), potters (22% of the value of landings affected), demersal (whitefish) trawls (17% of the value of landings affected) and Nephrops trawls (16% of the value of landings affected). Target species most affected are shellfish (scallops, Nephrops and other shellfish), and to some extent, haddock.

While the impacts on the under-10m sector appear to be relatively high (between £18,548 and £96,990) the ScotMap data on spatial allocation of average annual earnings for the under-15m fleet does not show much activity in the OWNE2 area ( Figure B4.2). This apparent impact is therefore probably an artefact of the calculation methodology which was based on value of landings from ICES rectangles - the area from which the under-15m vessels derive the majority of their earnings value is from areas closer inshore than the OWNE2 Draft Plan Option area.

The value of landings needs to be converted to changes in GVA to take account of the effects of the displacement of current (and future) output due to the footprint of the renewable technologies. This is based on the potential direct reduction in GVA due to the potential reduction in the value of landings. The Seafish Industry Authority Multi-year Fleet Economic Performance Dataset (Seafish, 2013) has been used as the basis for this calculation. However, directly comparable data on fleet segments and gear types were not available. Therefore, a GVA ratio of 39% has been used, based on the average GVA % across all Scottish fleet segments to revise the Present Value ( PV) estimate of the value of landings.

The knock-on effects on GVA have then been estimated using the Type I and Type II GVA multipliers (rather than GVA effect as for the other sectors). Data on landings have been used to inform the consideration of downstream supply chain effects (such as impacts on fish processors) but no estimate has been made of the GVA impact on processors. Instead, this is assessed as part of the (qualitative) social assessment.

C4.2.2 Displacement

The assessment carried out here assumes the worst-case scenario for the fishing industry - the total loss of the value of landings derived from the Draft Plan Option areas. As such, displacement issues are not considered in the quantification of impacts, as it is assumed that the landings, and therefore the activity, ceases. In practice, however, this is unlikely to be the case, and fishing vessels may be expected to adjust their operations in order to target different fishing grounds and/or different species.

Targeting different fishing grounds has a number of potential impacts, which have not been quantified but are discussed qualitatively. Displacement to different fishing grounds may put the vessels in conflict with other fishing vessels that already fish in the area. It may also result in environmental impacts as different areas ( e.g. of seabed and the associated benthic habitats and communities) are affected by the fishing gears used. There may be longer steaming times to reach the new fishing grounds, and associated additional fuel costs, and impacts on available fishing time for effort-limited vessels under the days-at-sea regulations. Furthermore, there may be impacts on the level of commercial return and profitability of individual vessels and fleet sectors, as the costs and earnings from targeting different fishing grounds, with potentially different catch rates, are likely to be different. Depending on the extent of displacement, there may also be costs associated with obtaining quota for different quota management areas.

If vessels decide to target different species as a result of being displaced from their traditional fishing grounds, gear adjustments may be necessary. This may require small adjustments, or complete replacement of fishing gear and reconfiguration of the vessel to accommodate the new gear. There may also be a need for new types of gear to be developed and associated costs with this.

C4.2.3 Obstruction of Navigation Routes

Navigation routes of fishing vessels were assessed based on 'steaming' VMS pings (average speed since last ping equal to or greater than 5 knots).

In the South West region, the main navigation routes in the region are from Whithorn heading south and south-east, from Kirkudbright heading south and from Whitehaven heading east ( Figure B4.3(a)). These routes do not cross the Draft Plan Option areas. There is some steaming that overlaps with tidal area TSW1 and wind area OWSW1. For the tidal area, the actual proportion of the Draft Plan Option areas that will be developed will be between 0.8% and 5.1%, and of the wind area, the proportion would be between 8% and 25% (under low and high scenarios respectively). Therefore it would be expected that impacts, particularly from the tidal area can be avoided through careful location of the devices.

In the West region, the main navigation routes are predominantly close to shore and in between the islands ( Figure B4.3(b)). Tidal area TW2, off the south west tip of the Mull of Kintyre, overlaps with a significant navigation route for vessels steaming around this area. Coupled with the strong currents experienced in this location, this may pose a potential navigation hazard. Only 5.1% of the area would be occupied by any tidal array and therefore it may be possible to minimise potential impacts, but navigational safety for vessels transiting, particularly in poor weather conditions, should be considered. Other areas such as OWW1 and OWW3 for wind and WW4 for wave, overlap with moderate concentrations of steaming pings. Whilst careful location of devices is expected to be able to avoid impacts for the wave area (less than 1% of the area would be occupied by arrays under the high scenario), there may be some deviation of navigation required to avoid wind arrays in OWW1 and OWW3, particularly under the high scenario, in which 25% of the areas area expected to be occupied by arrays.

In the North West region, the main navigation routes are inshore and around the islands, from Ullapool and Lochinver to Stornoway, around the northern tip of the Isle of Lewis and east, as well as heading east from the southern side of the Isle of Skye ( Figure B4.3(c)). Wave area WNW1 overlaps with the navigation routes heading east from the northern coast of the Isle of Lewis, but impacts on navigation routes are expected to be avoidable through location of devices, given that less than 1% of the area would be occupied with wave devices even under the high scenario. Wind area OWNW1 also overlaps with significant navigation routes from the north west coast of Scotland heading east and north east. This area could impact on navigation routes and result in deviation being necessary, particularly under the high scenario, in which 25% of the area is expected to be occupied by arrays.

In the North region, the main navigation routes are along the north coast of Scotland, through the Pentland Firth and Westray Firth, and around Shetland especially to the east of Shetland and between the islands particularly through Yell Sound and Calgrave Sound ( Figure B4.3(d)). Wave area WN1 and Tidal area TN1 overlap with the navigation route along the north coast of Scotland, and TN2 with the navigation route through Westray Firth. Impacts may be avoided for WN1 since less than 1% of the area would be occupied by arrays under the high scenario. Up to 5% of TN1 and TN2 would be occupied by arrays under the high scenario, and careful consideration should be given to the location of devices to avoid impacts. TN5 and TN6 also overlap significant navigation routes around Shetland. Wind areas OWN1 and OWN2 both overlap significant navigation routes, and up to 25% of the areas would be occupied by arrays in the high scenario. This may be expected to impact on navigation routes, particularly for OWN2 - location of devices in the northern part of OWN1 may avoid interaction with the most significant navigation routes.

In the North East region, the main navigation routes emanate out from the north east tip of Aberdeenshire, due to the location of Fraserburgh and Peterhead ports ( Figure B4.3(e)). Wind area OWNE1 is predominantly outside of these major navigation routes, being located slightly further south. Wind area OWNE2 is located in the area of the highest concentration of 'steaming' pings and major navigation routes. The development of wind arrays in this area would have an impact on navigation routes for fishing vessels, and cause a significant number of vessels and of individual fishing trips to have to deviate around any arrays located here.

Where development of offshore renewable areas does impact on fishing vessels' navigation routes, deviation of routes is expected. This implies costs to the fishing vessels in terms of time spent steaming to fishing grounds and extra fuel costs, with associated carbon emissions. Those vessels that are effort-limited by days-at-sea regulations would be further impacted by a reduction in the amount of time available for fishing.

C4.2.4 Fouling of Fishing Gear on Cables or Seabed Infrastructure

No significant interactions with cables were identified by the fishing industry, in particular because it is expected that cables would be laid in consultation with the fishing industry. The Scottish Fishermen's Federation ( SFF) is developing a Memorandum of Understanding with Subsea Cables UK (similar to the agreement that the National Federation of Fishermen's Organisations ( NFFO) has already developed) that recognises that future cable laying activity is carried out in consultation with the industry, and includes a protocol on methods of laying cables. This would include burying cables where appropriate and feasible, and should minimise potential impacts of cables on the fishing industry.

Nevertheless, the potential for impacts on the fishing industry due to fouling of gear on cables or seabed infrastructure still exists, since even buried cables may become exposed with time. In relation to the Oil and Gas industry, a fund exists to address losses or damage to the fishing industry as a result of fouling of fishing gear on Oil and Gas subsurface infrastructure ( SFF, pers. comm.). This was set up through negotiations with Oil and Gas companies and provides a method of compensating individual fishermen who suffer loss of fishing or damage to gear as a direct result of debris or equipment associated with the Oil and Gas Industry. This fund is managed independently and does not require a burden of proof to identify the specific operator responsible for the debris or equipment. A similar type of system should be considered for offshore renewables to provide compensation where loss or damage is incurred as a result of offshore energy infrastructure.

C4.2.5 Consequential Impacts to Fish Processors

The potential impacts on fish processors are considered in terms of the value of landings that may be affected by the offshore renewables developments in each region, for whitefish, pelagics and shellfish. This is presented in terms of the value of landings affected under the central scenario that are caught within the respective offshore renewable region. It should be noted that this does not necessarily reflect the area where those catches are landed. For example, Peterhead is an important port in the North-East Region for landings of pelagic species, but these may have been caught from the North and North-West Regions.

The total value of landings, value of landings affected by offshore renewables development (for wind, wave and tidal combined), and the value affected as a percentage of the total landings, is provided in Table C4.15. In all regions, less than 1% of the value of landings is affected for whitefish, pelagics and shellfish, for the central scenario.

The geographical distribution of the turnover of the Scottish industry is 65% around Aberdeen; 24% in central and southern Scotland; and 11% in the Highlands and Islands ( RSE, 2004). A substantial proportion of the fish processed is imported, particularly in the whitefish sector due to the reductions in local landings over the last few decades. The degree of dependence on imported supplies can affect the processing sector's ability to respond to changes in supplies from local landings.

Table C4.15 Total Value of Landings (£), Value of Landings Affected by Offshore Renewable Development (£), and Percentage of Total Landings Affected, by Region (Average 2007-2011)

Region Parameter Whitefish Pelagics Shellfish
South-West Total landings 2,107,777 1,404,608 17,566,287
Value affected 1,177 1,843 32,672
% of value affected 0.06% 0.13% 0.19%
West Total landings 3,601,103 14,787,058 37,346,544
Value affected 8,089 5,304 131,261
% of value affected 0.22% 0.04% 0.35%
North-West Total landings 37,868,496 45,299,831 30,768,355
Value affected 14,813 85,574 34,090
% of value affected 0.04% 0.19% 0.11%
North Total landings 77,082,972 85,405,144 29,391,133
Value affected 272,149 330,552 164,756
% of value affected 0.35% 0.39% 0.56%
North-East Total landings 11,159,619 2,531,237 30,606,371
Value affected 31,745 19,380 112,769
% of value affected 0.28% 0.77% 0.37%
East Total landings 4,934,500 1,808,315 22,485,695
Value affected - - -
% of value affected 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Total Total landings 137,082,439 151,678,846 168,639,935
Value affected 318,708 435,505 311,615
% of value affected 0.23% 0.29% 0.19%

Although the overall figures indicated that any impact on the processing sector would be minimal, in terms of the value of landings affected compared to the total value of landings, more significant impacts may arise at a local level. For example, the Shetland economy is remote from the main markets, and is narrowly based, depending heavily on fish catching, fish farming, fish processing, oil related activities and knitwear ( RSE, 2004). Similarly, fish and shellfish processing is important in Orkney. Any reductions in landings to these areas, particularly as a result of impacts on the landings from the under-10m and under-15m fleets, may have greater knock-on impacts on the processing sector and the wider economy than may be expected from the figures in Table C4.15.

C4.3 References

ABPmer and RPA, 2012. Socio-economic baseline reviews for offshore renewables in Scottish waters. Volume 1: Main text. Report R.1905, September 2012.

Baxter, J.M., Boyd, I.L., Cox, M., Donald, A.E., Malcolm, S.J., Miles, H., Miller, B., Moffat, C.F., (Editors), 2011. Scotland's Marine Atlas: Information for the national marine plan. Marine Scotland, Edinburgh.

Marine Scotland, 2012. Scottish Sea Fisheries Statistics 2011. A National Statistics Publication for Scotland. ISBN 978-1-78256-067-8. Edinburgh: The Scottish Government. 99 pages.

Royal Society of Edinburgh, 2004. Inquiry into the Future of the Scottish Fishing Industry. Edinburgh: Royal Society of Edinburgh.

Scottish Government, 2010. Future of Fisheries Management in Scotland.

UKFEN & Seafish, 2012. Best Practice Guidance for Fishing Industry Financial and Economic Impact Assessments. Seafish and UK Fisheries Economics Network, August 2012. 50 pages.

UKMMAS, 2010. Charting Progress 2 Feeder Report Productive Seas. Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs on behalf of UKMMAS (Eds. Saunders, J. and McKie, J.). United Kingdom Marine Monitoring and Assessment Strategy. 472 pages. Available online: http://chartingprogress.defra.gov.uk/


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