Publication - Progress report

Draft Sectoral Marine Plans for Offshore Renewable Energy in Scottish Waters: Socio - Economic Assesment

Published: 25 July 2013
Part of: Marine and fisheries
ISBN: 9781782567509

The study reported here provides a high level socio-economic appraisal of the potential costs and benefits to activities that may arise as a result of offshore wind, wave or tidal development within the Draft Plan Options as part of possible future Scotti

Supporting documents

C4. Commercial Fisheries

C4,1 Scoping Results

The results of the scoping assessment are presented in Table C4.1 (Offshore Wind), Table C4.2 (Wave) and Table C4.3 (Tidal) and indicate that more detailed assessment is required for all Draft Plan Option areas for Commercial Fisheries.

Table C4.1 Scoping Results for Offshore Wind

	OWN1	OWN2	OWNE1	OWNE2	OWSW1	OWSW2	OWW1	OWW2	OWW3	OWNW1
	North		North East		South West		West			North West
Loss of traditional fishing grounds	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Obstruction of navigation routes	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Fouling of fishing gear on cables or seabed infrastructure	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Consequential impacts to fish processors	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y

Table C4.2 Scoping Results for Wave

	WN1	WN2	WN3	WW1	WW2	WW3	WNW1	WW4
	North			West			North West
Loss of traditional fishing grounds	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Obstruction of navigation routes	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Fouling of fishing gear on cables or seabed infrastructure	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Consequential impacts to fish processors	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y

Table C4.3 Scoping Results for Tidal

	TN1	TN2	TN3	TN4	TN5	TN6	TN7	TSW1	TW1	TW2
	North							South West	West
Loss of traditional fishing grounds	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Obstruction of navigation routes	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Fouling of fishing gear on cables or seabed infrastructure	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Consequential impacts to fish processors	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y

C4.2 Assessment Results - Estimation of Costs and Benefits

C4.2.1 Loss of Traditional Fishing Grounds

All of the Draft Plan Option areas potentially overlap with fishing activity, and therefore all have been scoped in to the assessment for the potential loss of traditional fishing grounds. The results are discussed below by region. The results are presented as the annual value of landings, based on an average from 2007-2011.

C4.2.1.1 South west

In the South West region, there are two wind Draft Plan Option areas ( OWSW1 and OWSW2) and one tidal Draft Plan Option area ( TSW1). The values of landings derived from these areas, scaled according to each development scenario, and broken down by gear type, vessel length and species group, are shown in Tables C4.4 for wind and C4.5 for tidal developments.

The total value of landings affected in the South West region is £21,635 (low scenario), £35,693 (central scenario) or £72,747 (high scenario).

This is predominantly attributable to wind, due to the larger areas involved: the total value of landings from the wind Draft Plan Option areas in the South West region is £18,013 (low scenario), £23,924 (central scenario) or £49,661 (high scenario); and from the tidal Draft Plan Option areas is £3,621 (low scenario), £11,769 (central scenario) or £23,086 (high scenario).

The impacts fall predominantly on the over-10m sector, and on dredgers and potters that are active in the region, targeting shellfish.

Table C4.4 Value of Landings Affected IN Wind Draft Plan Option Areas in South West Region Under Low, Central and High Scenarios, Broken Down by Vessel Length, Gear Type and Species Type (£)

Category	Category Subset	Development Scenario
Category	Category Subset	Low	Central	High
Vessel Length	10m & under	4,518	5,954	12,211
	Over 10m & under 15m	6,340	8,304	16,856
	15m & over	7,153	9,662	20,588
Gear Type	Demersal Trawl ( TR1)	120	145	255
	Nephrops Trawl ( TR2)	1,662	1,995	3,444
	Beam Trawl ( BT1 and BT2)	425	438	498
	Pelagic Trawl ( PEL)	880	1,201	2,599
	Other Trawl (inc TR3)	3	3	3
	Gill Nets ( GN1)	48	57	93
	Long Lines ( LL1)	1	2	4
	Pots	7,227	9,799	20,999
	Dredges	7,642	10,277	21,754
	Shell Fishing by Hand	1	2	4
Species Type	Cod	10	11	16
	Haddock	1	1	2
	Monkfish	2	2	4
	Other Whitefish	816	931	1,432
	Herring	878	1,199	2,594
	Mackerel	3	4	9
	Other pelagic	0	0	0
	Nephrops	683	793	1,271
	Scallops	3,895	5,284	11,335
	Other Shellfish	11,726	15,698	32,999
Total		18,013	23,924	49,661

Table C4.5 Value of Landings Affected in Tidal Draft Plan Option Areas in South West Region Under Low, Central and High Scenarios, Broken Down by Vessel Length, Gear Type and Species Type (£)

Category	Category Subset	Development Scenario
Category	Category Subset	Low	Central	High
Vessel Length	10m & under	880	2,861	5,612
	Over 10m & under 15m	1,203	3,911	7,671
	15m & over	1,537	4,996	9,800
Gear Type	Demersal Trawl ( TR1)	15	50	99
	Nephrops Trawl ( TR2)	204	662	1,299
	Beam Trawl ( BT1 and BT2)	8	27	53
	Pelagic Trawl ( PEL)	197	639	1,254
	Other Trawl (inc TR3)	0	0	0
	Gill Nets ( GN1)	5	17	33
	Long Lines ( LL1)	0	1	2
	Pots	1,576	5,121	10,046
	Dredges	1,615	5,248	10,295
	Shell Fishing by Hand	0	1	2
Species Type	Cod	1	2	4
	Haddock	0	0	1
	Monkfish	0	1	2
	Other Whitefish	70	229	449
	Herring	196	638	1,251
	Mackerel	1	2	5
	Other pelagic	0	0	0
	Nephrops	67	219	429
	Scallops	851	2,767	5,427
	Other Shellfish	2,434	7,911	15,518
Total		3,621	11,769	23,086

The value of landings needs to be converted to changes in GVA to take account of the effects of the displacement of current (and future) output due to the footprint of the renewable technologies. This is based on the potential direct reduction in GVA due to the potential reduction in the value of landings. The Seafish Industry Authority Multi-year Fleet Economic Performance Dataset (Seafish, 2013) has been used as the basis for this calculation. However, directly comparable data on fleet segments and gear types were not available. Therefore, a GVA ratio of 39% has been used, based on the average GVA % across all Scottish fleet segments to revise the Present Value ( PV) estimate of the value of landings.

The knock-on effects on GVA have then been estimated using the Type I and Type II GVA multipliers (rather than GVA effect as for the other sectors). Data on landings have been used to inform the consideration of downstream supply chain effects (such as impacts on fish processors) but no estimate has been made of the GVA impact on processors. Instead, this is assessed as part of the (qualitative) social assessment.

C4.2.1.2 West

In the West region, there are three wind Draft Plan Option areas ( OWW1, OWW2 and OWW3), four wave Draft Plan Option areas ( WW1, WW2, WW3, WW4) and two tidal Draft Plan Option areas ( TW1, TW2). The values of landings derived from these areas, scaled according to each development scenario, and broken down by gear type, vessel length and species group, are shown in Tables C4.6 for wind, C4.7 for wave and C4.8 for tidal developments.

Table C4.6 Value of Landings Affected in Wind Draft Plan Option Areas in West Region Under Low, Central and High Scenarios, Broken Down by Vessel Length, Gear Type and Species Type (£)

Category	Category Subset	Development Scenario
Category	Category Subset	Low	Central	High
Vessel Length	10m & under	14,101	34,076	73,734
	Over 10m & under 15m	11,962	28,908	62,552
	15m & over	22,893	55,324	119,709
Gear Type	Demersal Trawl ( TR1)	2,058	4,974	10,762
	Nephrops Trawl ( TR2)	12,384	29,928	64,757
	Beam Trawl ( BT1 and BT2)	0	0	1
	Pelagic Trawl ( PEL)	1,988	4,805	10,398
	Other Trawl (inc TR3)	22	52	113
	Gill Nets ( GN1)	43	105	227
	Long Lines ( LL1)	6	14	30
	Pots	24,754	59,822	129,443
	Dredges	6,879	16,623	35,969
	Shell Fishing by Hand	821	1,985	4,294
Species Type	Cod	51	122	265
	Haddock	597	1,443	3,122
	Monkfish	759	1,834	3,969
	Other Whitefish	1,713	4,140	8,959
	Herring	535	1,293	2,797
	Mackerel	1,337	3,232	6,993
	Other pelagic	124	299	646
	Nephrops	12,942	31,276	67,674
	Scallops	6,917	16,716	36,171
	Other Shellfish	23,981	57,953	125,399
Total		48,955	118,309	255,995

Table C4.7 Value of Landings Affected in Wave Draft Plan Option Areas in West Region Under Low, Central and High Scenarios, Broken Down by Vessel Length, Gear Type and Species Type (£)

Category	Category Subset	Development Scenario
Category	Category Subset	Low	Central	High
Vessel Length	10m & under	1,350	2,299	4,527
	Over 10m & under 15m	1,112	1,665	3,228
	15m & over	1,943	3,484	6,852
Gear Type	Demersal Trawl ( TR1)	120	199	379
	Nephrops Trawl ( TR2)	1,363	2,229	4,349
	Beam Trawl ( BT1 and BT2)	0	0	0
	Pelagic Trawl ( PEL)	70	163	326
	Other Trawl (inc TR3)	2	3	6
	Gill Nets ( GN1)	2	3	6
	Long Lines ( LL1)	0	0	0
	Pots	2,222	3,711	7,280
	Dredges	494	1,003	2,006
	Shell Fishing by Hand	132	136	254
Species Type	Cod	5	9	18
	Haddock	31	57	108
	Monkfish	53	126	251
	Other Whitefish	103	191	368
	Herring	35	81	161
	Mackerel	26	73	148
	Other pelagic	9	10	19
	Nephrops	1,514	2,324	4,514
	Scallops	498	1,010	2,019
	Other Shellfish	2,130	3,568	7,000
Total		4,405	7,448	14,606

Table C4.8 Value of Landings Affected in Tidal Draft Plan Option Areas in West Region Under Low, Central and High Scenarios, Broken Down by Vessel Length, Gear Type and Species Type (£)

Category	Category Subset	Development Scenario
Category	Category Subset	Low	Central	High
Vessel Length	10m & under	1,647	5,181	10,163
	Over 10m & under 15m	1,281	3,983	7,813
	15m & over	3,241	9,733	19,091
Gear Type	Demersal Trawl ( TR1)	27	80	156
	Nephrops Trawl ( TR2)	2,637	7,645	14,996
	Beam Trawl ( BT1 and BT2)	-	-	-
	Pelagic Trawl ( PEL)	125	375	736
	Other Trawl (inc TR3)	1	4	8
	Gill Nets ( GN1)	0	0	0
	Long Lines ( LL1)	3	10	19
	Pots	2,046	6,601	12,948
	Dredges	1,300	4,096	8,035
	Shell Fishing by Hand	29	86	169
Species Type	Cod	5	14	28
	Haddock	22	65	127
	Monkfish	2	6	11
	Other Whitefish	28	82	160
	Herring	78	237	465
	Mackerel	28	80	157
	Other pelagic	0	0	0
	Nephrops	2,696	7,819	15,338
	Scallops	1,273	4,021	7,887
	Other Shellfish	2,039	6,574	12,895
Total		6,170	18,898	37,069

The total value of landings affected in the West region is £59,530 (low scenario), £144,654 (central scenario) or £307,670 (high scenario).

This is predominantly attributable to wind, due to the larger areas involved. The value of landings affected from the wind Draft Plan Option areas in the West region (central development scenario) is £118,309, from the wave Draft Plan Option areas is £7,448, and from the tidal Draft Plan Option areas is £18,898. The impact on fisheries from wave energy development in the West region is expected to be minimal, due to the small areas expected to be developed under the three scenarios. Under the high scenario, the total value of landings affected is £10,021, £3,479 of which is attributable to potters within area WW1. This is likely to be an over-estimate, as provisional ScotMap data show that the majority of under-15m average earnings are from areas closer to shore within the relevant ICES rectangle ( Figure B4.2). The impact from tidal energy development in the West region is also expected to be minimal.

The impacts in the West region are predominantly on potters (accounting for 49% of the value of landings affected) and Nephrops trawlers (accounting for 28% of the value of landings affected). The majority of the impacts arise as a result of area OWW1 for wind development (accounting for 56% of the value of landings affected). However, it should be noted that the actual impact of area OWW1 may be lower, since this Draft Plan Option area for wind development intersects with several ICES rectangles. The value of landings from these ICES rectangles has been used to calculate the potential value of landings affected from the Draft Plan Option area. When the value of landings based on VMS effort for the over-15m vessels is considered, which provides a finer-scale resolution of the distribution of the areas from which landings are derived, area OWW1 is not an intensively-fished area ( Figure B4.1). Furthermore, ScotMap data, which provide greater resolution for the under-15m vessels, do not show intensive fishing activity in this area ( Figure B4.2).

Although the impacts are predominantly on the over-15m sector in terms of value of landings affected, the relative impact on overall earnings may be significant for the smaller-scale sectors.

C4.2.1.3 North West

In the North West region, there is one wind Draft Plan Option area ( OWNW1) and one wave Draft Plan Option area ( WNW1). No tidal energy development is foreseen. The values of landings derived from these areas, scaled according to each development scenario, and broken down by gear type, vessel length and species group, are shown in Table C4.9 for wind and Table C4.10 for wave.

Table C4.9 Value of Landings Affected in Wind Draft Plan Option Areas in North West Region Under Low, Central and High Scenarios, Broken Down by Vessel Length, Gear Type and Species Type (£)

Category	Category Subset	Development Scenario
Category	Category Subset	Low	Central	High
Vessel Length	10m & under	746	1,802	3,899
	Over 10m & under 15m	2,823	6,823	14,763
	15m & over	38,792	93,749	202,852
Gear Type	Demersal Trawl ( TR1)	4,851	11,722	25,364
	Nephrops Trawl ( TR2)	1,085	2,622	5,674
	Beam Trawl ( BT1 and BT2)	0	0	0
	Pelagic Trawl ( PEL)	26,479	63,990	138,461
	Other Trawl (inc TR3)	528	1,275	2,760
	Gill Nets ( GN1)	0	0	0
	Long Lines ( LL1)	10	24	53
	Pots	9,103	21,998	47,599
	Dredges	307	741	1,604
	Shell Fishing by Hand	0	0	0
Species Type	Cod	63	151	328
	Haddock	1,839	4,443	9,614
	Monkfish	221	533	1,154
	Other Whitefish	2,690	6,500	14,064
	Herring	19,880	48,044	103,957
	Mackerel	7,084	17,119	37,043
	Other pelagic	8	19	41
	Nephrops	1,035	2,502	5,415
	Scallops	307	741	1,604
	Other Shellfish	9,236	22,320	48,296
Total		42,361	102,373	221,514

Table C4.10 Value of Landings Affected in Wave Draft Plan Option Areas in North West Region Under Low, Central and High Scenarios, Broken Down by Vessel Length, Gear Type and Species Type (£)

Category	Category Subset	Development Scenario
Category	Category Subset	Low	Central	High
Vessel Length	10m & under	1,059	2,928	5,919
	Over 10m & under 15m	398	1,101	2,225
	15m & over	10,154	28,074	56,745
Gear Type	Demersal Trawl ( TR1)	1,033	2,856	5,772
	Nephrops Trawl ( TR2)	723	1,998	4,038
	Beam Trawl ( BT1 and BT2)	0	0	0
	Pelagic Trawl ( PEL)	7,240	20,016	40,457
	Other Trawl (inc TR3)	144	399	807
	Gill Nets ( GN1)	22	62	125
	Long Lines ( LL1)	104	287	579
	Pots	2,250	6,222	12,576
	Dredges	61	168	339
	Shell Fishing by Hand	35	98	198
Species Type	Cod	19	52	106
	Haddock	227	627	1,268
	Monkfish	262	726	1,467
	Other Whitefish	644	1,780	3,598
	Herring	502	1,387	2,804
	Mackerel	6,746	18,652	37,701
	Other pelagic	127	352	712
	Nephrops	1,012	2,799	5,658
	Scallops	98	271	547
	Other Shellfish	1,974	5,456	11,029
Total		11,612	32,103	64,890

The total value of landings affected in the North West region is £53,973 (low scenario), £134,477 (central scenario) or £286,404 (high scenario).

This is predominantly attributable to the wind Draft Plan Option area, OWNW1 (76% of the value of landings affected, £102,373 under the central scenario). Although the wave energy Draft Plan Option area is a very large area, the actual proportion of the overall area expected to be developed under each of the development scenarios, is very small (less than 1% in all three development scenarios), and the majority of the value of landings from the North West region as a whole is from the pelagic sector which is active further offshore.

The impacts in the North West region are predominantly on the pelagic sector (£63,990 under the central development scenario, accounting for 62% of the value of landings affected in the region), and to a lesser extent on potters (accounting for 21% of the value of landings affected) and demersal (whitefish) trawlers (accounting for 11% of the value of landings affected). As a result, the over-15m sector is most affected, and those vessels targeting herring (predominantly in the wind OWNW1 area) and mackerel (predominantly in the wave WNW1 area). Provisional ScotMap data indicate that the Draft Plan Option areas are not significant areas for earnings for the under-15m sector.

C4.2.1.4 North

In the North region, there are two wind Draft Plan Option areas ( OWN1 and OWN2), three wave Draft Plan Option areas ( WN1, WN2 and WN3) and seven tidal Draft Plan Option areas ( TN1, TN2, TN3, TN4, TN5, TN6 and TN7). These areas are mainly focussed around Shetland, Pentland Firth and Orkney. The values of landings derived from these areas, scaled according to each development scenario, and broken down by gear type, vessel length and species group, are shown in Tables C4.11 for wind, C4.12 for wave and C4.13 for tidal developments.

Table C4.11 Value of Landings Affected in Wind Draft Plan Option Areas in the North Region Under Low, Central and High Scenarios, Broken Down by Vessel length, Gear Type and Species Type (£)

Category	Category subset	Development Scenario
Category	Category subset	Low	Central	High
Vessel Length	10m & under	37,556	90,761	196,387
	Over 10m & under 15m	13,174	31,836	68,887
	15m & over	233,505	564,303	1,221,036
Gear Type	Demersal Trawl ( TR1)	106,391	257,111	556,335
	Nephrops Trawl ( TR2)	8,758	21,165	45,797
	Beam Trawl ( BT1 and BT2)	23	54	118
	Pelagic Trawl ( PEL)	120,042	290,101	627,717
	Other Trawl (inc TR3)	5,469	13,216	28,597
	Gill Nets ( GN1)	438	1,058	2,290
	Long Lines ( LL1)	2,432	5,878	12,719
	Pots	34,753	83,986	181,728
	Dredges	4,226	10,212	22,097
	Shell Fishing by Hand	1,172	2,832	6,128
Species Type	Cod	21,057	50,889	110,112
	Haddock	22,521	54,425	117,764
	Monkfish	25,538	61,717	133,543
	Other Whitefish	34,771	84,030	181,824
	Herring	23,562	56,941	123,208
	Mackerel	101,239	244,661	529,395
	Other pelagic	733	1,772	3,834
	Nephrops	11,316	27,347	59,174
	Scallops	5,422	13,104	28,354
	Other Shellfish	38,075	92,015	199,101
Total		284,235	686,900	1,486,310

Table C4.12 Value of Landings Affected in Wave Draft Plan Option Areas in the North Region Under Low, Central and High Scenarios, Broken Down by Vessel Length, Gear Type and Species Type (£)

Category	Category subset	Development Scenario
Category	Category subset	Low	Central	High
Vessel Length	10m & under	2,171	5,551	11,220
	Over 10m & under 15m	1,211	3,082	6,229
	15m & over	8,780	23,283	47,061
Gear Type	Demersal Trawl ( TR1)	4,446	11,914	24,082
	Nephrops Trawl ( TR2)	141	369	746
	Beam Trawl ( BT1 and BT2)	1	3	7
	Pelagic Trawl ( PEL)	3,434	9,137	18,468
	Other Trawl (inc TR3)	402	1,055	2,132
	Gill Nets ( GN1)	14	38	77
	Long Lines ( LL1)	108	294	594
	Pots	2,673	6,672	13,485
	Dredges	828	2,161	4,368
	Shell Fishing by Hand	104	245	495
Species Type	Cod	947	2,575	5,205
	Haddock	1,047	2,830	5,719
	Monkfish	1,093	2,859	5,779
	Other Whitefish	1,219	3,270	6,609
	Herring	1,420	3,537	7,150
	Mackerel	2,339	6,464	13,066
	Other pelagic	27	74	150
	Nephrops	305	804	1,624
	Scallops	915	2,376	4,802
	Other Shellfish	2,851	7,127	14,406
Total		12,162	31,916	64,510

Table C4.13 Value of Landings Affected in Tidal Draft Plan Option Areas in the North Region Under Low, Central and High Scenarios, Broken Down by Vessel Length, Gear Type and Species Type (£)

Category	Category subset	Development Scenario
Category	Category subset	Low	Central	High
Vessel Length	10m & under	4,005	9,750	19,125
	Over 10m & under 15m	4,321	10,864	21,309
	15m & over	16,535	28,028	54,977
Gear Type	Demersal Trawl ( TR1)	5,611	9,497	18,629
	Nephrops Trawl ( TR2)	96	261	512
	Beam Trawl ( BT1 and BT2)	0	0	0
	Pelagic Trawl ( PEL)	10,186	16,747	32,850
	Other Trawl (inc TR3)	258	355	697
	Gill Nets ( GN1)	159	178	349
	Long Lines ( LL1)	107	146	286
	Pots	6,697	17,517	34,360
	Dredges	1,007	1,984	3,891
	Shell Fishing by Hand	659	1,740	3,414
Species Type	Cod	1,113	1,676	3,288
	Haddock	1,250	2,174	4,264
	Monkfish	1,788	3,596	7,054
	Other Whitefish	1,535	2,109	4,137
	Herring	4,056	9,129	17,906
	Mackerel	6,402	7,946	15,586
	Other pelagic	11	28	56
	Nephrops	142	314	616
	Scallops	1,598	3,503	6,871
	Other Shellfish	6,966	18,167	35,635
Total		24,861	48,642	95,412

The total value of landings affected in the North region is the greatest of any region - £321,258 (low scenario), £767,457 (central scenario) or £1,646,232 (high scenario).

This is predominantly attributable to the two wind areas (together accounting for 88% of the value of landings affected), which occupy much larger areas than the wave and tidal areas under the three development scenarios. The Draft Plan Option area OWN1 accounts for £334,161 of the value of landings affected under the central scenario, mainly due to impacts on demersal (whitefish) trawlers (£133,202), the pelagic sector (£95,203) and potters (£83,281). Area OWN2 account for £351,452 of the value of landings affected under the central scenario, mainly due to impacts on the pelagic sector (£194,898) and demersal (whitefish) trawlers (£123,909). These impacts are predominantly on the over-15m sector (£564,303 for both areas combined under the central scenario), but impacts on smaller vessels may also be significant (£122,597 for under-15m vessels under the central scenario, predominantly the under-10m vessels).

The impact of the wind Draft Plan Option areas in the North region would be predominantly on the pelagic sector (targeting herring and mackerel, accounting for 44% of the value of landings affected), whitefish sector (accounting for 37% of the value of landings affected - cod, haddock, monkfish and other whitefish), and to a lesser extent shellfish (accounting for 19% of the value of landings affected).

While the development of wave and tidal energy is often a concern for the under-10m and under-15m vessels, because these technologies are usually deployed closer to the coast, the actual value of landings expected to be affected is not great: £5,551 for the wave Draft Plan Option areas under the central scenario, and £9,750 for the tidal Draft Plan Option areas under the central scenario. WN2, WN3, TN1 and TN4 have the largest impact on the under-10m sector, but even the most significant of these, TN1, is only expected to impact on £4,895 worth of landings from the under-10m sector under the central scenario. Nevertheless, the ScotMap data ( Figure B4.2) do show that areas TN1 and TN2 overlap with important fishing grounds for the under-15m sector, and if these areas are taken forward for development, the location of arrays should be planned in close consultation with the fishing industry in order to minimise any potential impacts.

The tidal areas are most likely to impact on shellfish fisheries. 45% of the value of landings affected by the tidal Draft Plan Option areas are attributed to shellfish (£21,984 under the central scenario). 35% of the value of landings affected by the tidal Draft Plan Option areas would be on herring and mackerel, and 20% on whitefish landings.

ScotMap data do not cover Shetland, so it is difficult to assess the relative importance of the Draft Plan Option areas for the under-15m fleet beyond the resolution provided by the ICES rectangle-based data, however the area surrounding Shetland is a valuable fishing ground for under-15m vessels, particularly to the east of Shetland where Draft Plan Option area OWN2 is located.

C4.2.1.5 North East

In the North East region, there are only two wind Draft Plan Option areas ( OWNE1 and OWNE2); no wave or tidal energy development is foreseen. The values of landings derived from these areas, scaled according to each development scenario, and broken down by gear type, vessel length and species group, are shown in Table C4.14.

Table C4.14 Value of Landings Affected in Wind Draft Plan Option Areas in North East Region Under Low, Central and High Scenarios, Broken Down by Vessel Length, Gear Type and Species Type (£)

Category	Category subset	Development Scenario
Category	Category subset	Low	Central	High
Vessel Length	10m & under	18,548	44,824	96,990
	Over 10m & under 15m	4,121	9,960	21,550
	15m & over	45,130	109,065	235,995
Gear Type	Demersal Trawl ( TR1)	11,417	27,591	59,702
	Nephrops Trawl ( TR2)	11,001	26,586	57,526
	Beam Trawl ( BT1 and BT2)	0	0	0
	Pelagic Trawl ( PEL)	3,917	9,466	20,482
	Other Trawl (inc TR3)	2,444	5,905	12,778
	Gill Nets ( GN1)	0	0	0
	Long Lines ( LL1)	3,450	8,337	18,039
	Pots	14,975	36,189	78,306
	Dredges	20,615	49,819	107,798
	Shell Fishing by Hand	1	1	3
Species Type	Cod	797	1,926	4,168
	Haddock	8,893	21,491	46,502
	Monkfish	1,417	3,424	7,410
	Other Whitefish	2,029	4,904	10,611
	Herring	3,700	8,942	19,349
	Mackerel	4,319	10,437	22,584
	Other pelagic	0	0	0
	Nephrops	9,078	21,940	47,473
	Scallops	20,468	49,464	107,031
	Other Shellfish	17,117	41,365	89,506
Total		67,818	163,894	354,633

The total value of landings affected from the Draft Plan Option areas is between £67,818 (low scenario) and £354,633 (high scenario). This is predominantly attributable to Draft Plan Option area OWNE2 (63% of the value of landings affected), which overlaps a more valuable fishing area than OWNE1.

The impacts are predominantly on the over-15m sector, and predominantly on dredgers (30% of the value of landings affected), potters (22% of the value of landings affected), demersal (whitefish) trawls (17% of the value of landings affected) and Nephrops trawls (16% of the value of landings affected). Target species most affected are shellfish (scallops, Nephrops and other shellfish), and to some extent, haddock.

While the impacts on the under-10m sector appear to be relatively high (between £18,548 and £96,990) the ScotMap data on spatial allocation of average annual earnings for the under-15m fleet does not show much activity in the OWNE2 area ( Figure B4.2). This apparent impact is therefore probably an artefact of the calculation methodology which was based on value of landings from ICES rectangles - the area from which the under-15m vessels derive the majority of their earnings value is from areas closer inshore than the OWNE2 Draft Plan Option area.

C4.2.2 Displacement

The assessment carried out here assumes the worst-case scenario for the fishing industry - the total loss of the value of landings derived from the Draft Plan Option areas. As such, displacement issues are not considered in the quantification of impacts, as it is assumed that the landings, and therefore the activity, ceases. In practice, however, this is unlikely to be the case, and fishing vessels may be expected to adjust their operations in order to target different fishing grounds and/or different species.

Targeting different fishing grounds has a number of potential impacts, which have not been quantified but are discussed qualitatively. Displacement to different fishing grounds may put the vessels in conflict with other fishing vessels that already fish in the area. It may also result in environmental impacts as different areas ( e.g. of seabed and the associated benthic habitats and communities) are affected by the fishing gears used. There may be longer steaming times to reach the new fishing grounds, and associated additional fuel costs, and impacts on available fishing time for effort-limited vessels under the days-at-sea regulations. Furthermore, there may be impacts on the level of commercial return and profitability of individual vessels and fleet sectors, as the costs and earnings from targeting different fishing grounds, with potentially different catch rates, are likely to be different. Depending on the extent of displacement, there may also be costs associated with obtaining quota for different quota management areas.

If vessels decide to target different species as a result of being displaced from their traditional fishing grounds, gear adjustments may be necessary. This may require small adjustments, or complete replacement of fishing gear and reconfiguration of the vessel to accommodate the new gear. There may also be a need for new types of gear to be developed and associated costs with this.

C4.2.3 Obstruction of Navigation Routes

Navigation routes of fishing vessels were assessed based on 'steaming' VMS pings (average speed since last ping equal to or greater than 5 knots).

In the South West region, the main navigation routes in the region are from Whithorn heading south and south-east, from Kirkudbright heading south and from Whitehaven heading east ( Figure B4.3(a)). These routes do not cross the Draft Plan Option areas. There is some steaming that overlaps with tidal area TSW1 and wind area OWSW1. For the tidal area, the actual proportion of the Draft Plan Option areas that will be developed will be between 0.8% and 5.1%, and of the wind area, the proportion would be between 8% and 25% (under low and high scenarios respectively). Therefore it would be expected that impacts, particularly from the tidal area can be avoided through careful location of the devices.

In the West region, the main navigation routes are predominantly close to shore and in between the islands ( Figure B4.3(b)). Tidal area TW2, off the south west tip of the Mull of Kintyre, overlaps with a significant navigation route for vessels steaming around this area. Coupled with the strong currents experienced in this location, this may pose a potential navigation hazard. Only 5.1% of the area would be occupied by any tidal array and therefore it may be possible to minimise potential impacts, but navigational safety for vessels transiting, particularly in poor weather conditions, should be considered. Other areas such as OWW1 and OWW3 for wind and WW4 for wave, overlap with moderate concentrations of steaming pings. Whilst careful location of devices is expected to be able to avoid impacts for the wave area (less than 1% of the area would be occupied by arrays under the high scenario), there may be some deviation of navigation required to avoid wind arrays in OWW1 and OWW3, particularly under the high scenario, in which 25% of the areas area expected to be occupied by arrays.

In the North West region, the main navigation routes are inshore and around the islands, from Ullapool and Lochinver to Stornoway, around the northern tip of the Isle of Lewis and east, as well as heading east from the southern side of the Isle of Skye ( Figure B4.3(c)). Wave area WNW1 overlaps with the navigation routes heading east from the northern coast of the Isle of Lewis, but impacts on navigation routes are expected to be avoidable through location of devices, given that less than 1% of the area would be occupied with wave devices even under the high scenario. Wind area OWNW1 also overlaps with significant navigation routes from the north west coast of Scotland heading east and north east. This area could impact on navigation routes and result in deviation being necessary, particularly under the high scenario, in which 25% of the area is expected to be occupied by arrays.

In the North region, the main navigation routes are along the north coast of Scotland, through the Pentland Firth and Westray Firth, and around Shetland especially to the east of Shetland and between the islands particularly through Yell Sound and Calgrave Sound ( Figure B4.3(d)). Wave area WN1 and Tidal area TN1 overlap with the navigation route along the north coast of Scotland, and TN2 with the navigation route through Westray Firth. Impacts may be avoided for WN1 since less than 1% of the area would be occupied by arrays under the high scenario. Up to 5% of TN1 and TN2 would be occupied by arrays under the high scenario, and careful consideration should be given to the location of devices to avoid impacts. TN5 and TN6 also overlap significant navigation routes around Shetland. Wind areas OWN1 and OWN2 both overlap significant navigation routes, and up to 25% of the areas would be occupied by arrays in the high scenario. This may be expected to impact on navigation routes, particularly for OWN2 - location of devices in the northern part of OWN1 may avoid interaction with the most significant navigation routes.

In the North East region, the main navigation routes emanate out from the north east tip of Aberdeenshire, due to the location of Fraserburgh and Peterhead ports ( Figure B4.3(e)). Wind area OWNE1 is predominantly outside of these major navigation routes, being located slightly further south. Wind area OWNE2 is located in the area of the highest concentration of 'steaming' pings and major navigation routes. The development of wind arrays in this area would have an impact on navigation routes for fishing vessels, and cause a significant number of vessels and of individual fishing trips to have to deviate around any arrays located here.

Where development of offshore renewable areas does impact on fishing vessels' navigation routes, deviation of routes is expected. This implies costs to the fishing vessels in terms of time spent steaming to fishing grounds and extra fuel costs, with associated carbon emissions. Those vessels that are effort-limited by days-at-sea regulations would be further impacted by a reduction in the amount of time available for fishing.

C4.2.4 Fouling of Fishing Gear on Cables or Seabed Infrastructure

No significant interactions with cables were identified by the fishing industry, in particular because it is expected that cables would be laid in consultation with the fishing industry. The Scottish Fishermen's Federation ( SFF) is developing a Memorandum of Understanding with Subsea Cables UK (similar to the agreement that the National Federation of Fishermen's Organisations ( NFFO) has already developed) that recognises that future cable laying activity is carried out in consultation with the industry, and includes a protocol on methods of laying cables. This would include burying cables where appropriate and feasible, and should minimise potential impacts of cables on the fishing industry.

Nevertheless, the potential for impacts on the fishing industry due to fouling of gear on cables or seabed infrastructure still exists, since even buried cables may become exposed with time. In relation to the Oil and Gas industry, a fund exists to address losses or damage to the fishing industry as a result of fouling of fishing gear on Oil and Gas subsurface infrastructure ( SFF, pers. comm.). This was set up through negotiations with Oil and Gas companies and provides a method of compensating individual fishermen who suffer loss of fishing or damage to gear as a direct result of debris or equipment associated with the Oil and Gas Industry. This fund is managed independently and does not require a burden of proof to identify the specific operator responsible for the debris or equipment. A similar type of system should be considered for offshore renewables to provide compensation where loss or damage is incurred as a result of offshore energy infrastructure.

C4.2.5 Consequential Impacts to Fish Processors

The potential impacts on fish processors are considered in terms of the value of landings that may be affected by the offshore renewables developments in each region, for whitefish, pelagics and shellfish. This is presented in terms of the value of landings affected under the central scenario that are caught within the respective offshore renewable region. It should be noted that this does not necessarily reflect the area where those catches are landed. For example, Peterhead is an important port in the North-East Region for landings of pelagic species, but these may have been caught from the North and North-West Regions.

The total value of landings, value of landings affected by offshore renewables development (for wind, wave and tidal combined), and the value affected as a percentage of the total landings, is provided in Table C4.15. In all regions, less than 1% of the value of landings is affected for whitefish, pelagics and shellfish, for the central scenario.

The geographical distribution of the turnover of the Scottish industry is 65% around Aberdeen; 24% in central and southern Scotland; and 11% in the Highlands and Islands ( RSE, 2004). A substantial proportion of the fish processed is imported, particularly in the whitefish sector due to the reductions in local landings over the last few decades. The degree of dependence on imported supplies can affect the processing sector's ability to respond to changes in supplies from local landings.

Table C4.15 Total Value of Landings (£), Value of Landings Affected by Offshore Renewable Development (£), and Percentage of Total Landings Affected, by Region (Average 2007-2011)

Region	Parameter	Whitefish	Pelagics	Shellfish
South-West	Total landings	2,107,777	1,404,608	17,566,287
	Value affected	1,177	1,843	32,672
	% of value affected	0.06%	0.13%	0.19%
West	Total landings	3,601,103	14,787,058	37,346,544
	Value affected	8,089	5,304	131,261
	% of value affected	0.22%	0.04%	0.35%
North-West	Total landings	37,868,496	45,299,831	30,768,355
	Value affected	14,813	85,574	34,090
	% of value affected	0.04%	0.19%	0.11%
North	Total landings	77,082,972	85,405,144	29,391,133
	Value affected	272,149	330,552	164,756
	% of value affected	0.35%	0.39%	0.56%
North-East	Total landings	11,159,619	2,531,237	30,606,371
	Value affected	31,745	19,380	112,769
	% of value affected	0.28%	0.77%	0.37%
East	Total landings	4,934,500	1,808,315	22,485,695
	Value affected	-	-	-
	% of value affected	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Total	Total landings	137,082,439	151,678,846	168,639,935
	Value affected	318,708	435,505	311,615
	% of value affected	0.23%	0.29%	0.19%

Although the overall figures indicated that any impact on the processing sector would be minimal, in terms of the value of landings affected compared to the total value of landings, more significant impacts may arise at a local level. For example, the Shetland economy is remote from the main markets, and is narrowly based, depending heavily on fish catching, fish farming, fish processing, oil related activities and knitwear ( RSE, 2004). Similarly, fish and shellfish processing is important in Orkney. Any reductions in landings to these areas, particularly as a result of impacts on the landings from the under-10m and under-15m fleets, may have greater knock-on impacts on the processing sector and the wider economy than may be expected from the figures in Table C4.15.

C4.3 References

ABPmer and RPA, 2012. Socio-economic baseline reviews for offshore renewables in Scottish waters. Volume 1: Main text. Report R.1905, September 2012.

Baxter, J.M., Boyd, I.L., Cox, M., Donald, A.E., Malcolm, S.J., Miles, H., Miller, B., Moffat, C.F., (Editors), 2011. Scotland's Marine Atlas: Information for the national marine plan. Marine Scotland, Edinburgh.

Marine Scotland, 2012. Scottish Sea Fisheries Statistics 2011. A National Statistics Publication for Scotland. ISBN 978-1-78256-067-8. Edinburgh: The Scottish Government. 99 pages.

Royal Society of Edinburgh, 2004. Inquiry into the Future of the Scottish Fishing Industry. Edinburgh: Royal Society of Edinburgh.

Scottish Government, 2010. Future of Fisheries Management in Scotland.

UKFEN & Seafish, 2012. Best Practice Guidance for Fishing Industry Financial and Economic Impact Assessments. Seafish and UK Fisheries Economics Network, August 2012. 50 pages.

UKMMAS, 2010. Charting Progress 2 Feeder Report Productive Seas. Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs on behalf of UKMMAS (Eds. Saunders, J. and McKie, J.). United Kingdom Marine Monitoring and Assessment Strategy. 472 pages. Available online: http://chartingprogress.defra.gov.uk/

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