Publication - Impact assessment

Offshore wind energy - draft sectoral marine plan: social and economic impact assessment

Published: 18 Dec 2019
Directorate:
Marine Scotland Directorate
Part of:
Energy, Marine and fisheries
ISBN:
9781839603792

A social and economic impact assessment to support development of the draft sectoral marine plan for offshore wind energy.

316 page PDF

4.9 MB

Contents
Offshore wind energy - draft sectoral marine plan: social and economic impact assessment
Footnotes

Footnotes

1 All GVA impacts are given as Present Value (discounted) estimates over the study timescale from 2020 to 2059 using the HM Treasury discount rates.

2 The Scottish Government, 2013. Planning Scotland’s Seas - Sectoral Marine Plans for Offshore Wind, Wave and Tidal Energy in Scottish Waters Consultation Draft. Available at: https://beta.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/consultation-paper/2013/07/draft-sectoral-marine-plans-offshore-renewable-energy-scottish-waters-consultation/documents/00428241-pdf/00428241-pdf/govscot:document/

3 Scottish Government, 2018a. Sectoral marine plan for offshore wind energy: context report. Available at: https://beta.gov.scot/publications/sectoral-marine-plan-offshore-wind-energy-encompassing-deep water-plan/

4 Scottish Government, 2018b. Sectoral marine plan for offshore wind energy: social and economic impact assessment scoping report. Available at: https://beta.gov.scot/publications/sectoral-marine-plan-offshore-wind-energy-encompassing-deep waterplan-options/

5 Scottish Government, 2018c. Sectoral marine plan for offshore wind energy: strategic habitat regulations appraisal pre-screening report. Available at: https://beta.gov.scot/publications/sectoral-marine-plan-offshore-wind-energy-encompassing-deep water-plan-9781788519632/

6 Scottish Government, 2018d. Sectoral marine plan for offshore wind energy: strategic environmental assessment screening and scoping report. Available at: https://beta.gov.scot/publications/sectoral-marine-plan-offshore-wind-energy-encompassing-deep water-options/

7 Scottish Government, 2018e. Search areas for offshore wind energy: scoping study. Available at: https://beta.gov.scot/publications/scoping-areas-search-study-offshore-wind-energy-scottish-waters-2018/

8 The Carbon Trust (2015). Floating Offshore Wind: Market and Technology Review. Available at: http://www.carbontrust.com/media/670664/floating-offshore-wind-markettechnology-review.pdf

In draft.

10 ABPmer, SQW and RPA, 2011. Economic Assessment of Short-term Options for Offshore Wind in Scottish Territorial Waters.

11 ABPmer & RPA, 2012. Socio-economic Baseline Reviews for Offshore Renewables in Scottish Waters. ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd, Report No. R.1905 to Marine Scotland.

12 ABPmer & RPA, 2013. Draft Sectoral Marine Plans for Offshore Renewable Energy in Scottish Waters: Socio - Economic Assessment. Report No. R.2045 to Marine Scotland.

13 https://beta.gov.scot/publications/bria-guidance/

14 HM Treasury, 2013. The Green Book.

15 Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Policy Paper, Offshore wind sector deal, Published 7 March 2019 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/offshore-wind-sector-deal/offshore-wind-sector-deal

16 Committee on Climate Change, 2018. Reducing UK Emissions. 2018 Progress Report to Parliament. June 2018.

https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/reducing-uk-emissions-2018-progress-report-to-parliament/

17 National Grid, 2019. Future Energy Scenarios. July 2019. http://fes.nationalgrid.com/media/1409/fes-2019.pdf

18 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-becomes-first-major-economy-to-pass-net-zero-emissions-law

19 https://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/en-gb/media-and-insights/news/2019-28-gw-of-offshore-wind-extension-projects-to-progress-following-completion-of-plan-level-habitats-regulations-assessment/

20 https://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/en-gb/what-we-do/on-the-seabed/offshore-wind-leasing-round-4/

21 European Wind Energy Association, 2015. Wind Energy Scenarios for 2030. August 2015.

https://www.ewea.org/fileadmin/files/library/publications/reports/EWEA-Wind-energy-scenarios-2030.pdf

22 National Grid, 2017. Electricity Ten Year Statement 2017 https://www.nationalgrideso.com/sites/eso/files/documents/14843_NG_ETYS_2017_AllChapters_A01_INT.pdf

23 Committee on Climate Change, 2018. Reducing emissions in Scotland. 2018 Progress Report to Parliament. September 2018.

https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/reducing-emissions-in-scotland-2018-progress-report-to-parliament/

24 Committee on Climate Change, 2018. ibid.

25 Deutsche Windguard, 2018. Capacity Densities of European Offshore Wind Farms. https://vasab.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/BalticLINes_CapacityDensityStudy_June2018-1.pdf

26 National Grid, 2018. Network Options Assessment 2017/18. https://www.nationalgrideso.com/sites/eso/files/documents/Network-Options-Assessment-2017-18.pdf

27 Scottish Government (2019) Draft Regional Locational Guidance – Offshore Wind in Scottish Waters, currently in draft.

28 Marine Scotland, 2018. Sectoral Marine Plan for Offshore Wind Energy (encompassing Deep Water Plan Options), Social and Economic Impact Assessment, Scoping Report. June 2018. Available online at https://www.gov.scot/Resource/0053/00536625.pdf. Accessed 4 October 2018.

29 ABPmer, SQW and RPA, 2011. Economic Assessment of Short-term Options for Offshore Wind in Scottish Territorial Waters.

30 ABPmer & RPA, 2013. Draft Sectoral Marine Plans for Offshore Renewable Energy in Scottish Waters: Socio - Economic Assessment. Report No. R.2045 to Marine Scotland.

31 MMO, 2014. Social impacts and interactions between marine sectors (MMO 1060), August, 2014. Marine Management Organisation.

32 Scott, K.E., Anderson, C., Dunsford, H., Benson, J.F. and MacFarlane, R. (2005). An assessment of the sensitivity and capacity of the Scottish seascape in relation to offshore windfarms. Scottish Natural Heritage Commissioned Report No.103 (ROAME No. F03AA06).

33 https://beta.gov.scot/publications/bria-guidance/

34 BVG Associates (2019): Guide to an offshore wind farm, updated and extended, January 2019.

35 Note that offshore multipliers have provisionally been produced but only for oil and gas.

36 These are available at https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Input-Output/Downloads/IO1998-2016All [accessed on 17/07/2018].

37 Collingwood Environmental Planning Ltd et al. 2016. A two way conversation with the people of Scotland on the social impact of offshore renewables, Final Dialogue Report; as reported by Marine Scotland (2018): Sectoral Marine Plan for Offshore Wind Energy (encompassing Deep Water Plan Options) Social and Economic Impact Assessment Scoping Report.

38 Scottish Government, 2018. National Performance Framework. Available online at: http://nationalperformance.gov.scot/. Accessed 10 October 2018.

39 This table has been generated by considering which of the national indicators and sustainable goals are likely to be relevant to the offshore wind farm in terms of potentially delivering positive benefits or resulting in negative impacts. Each national indicator and goals has then been linked to the relevant cluster(s).

40 Collingwood Environmental Planning Ltd et al., 2016. A two way conversation with the people of Scotland on the social impact of offshore renewables, Final Dialogue Report; as reported by Marine Scotland (2018): Sectoral Marine Plan for Offshore Wind Energy (encompassing Deep Water Plan Options) Social and Economic Impact Assessment Scoping Report.

41 Cebr, 2017. The economic contribution of the UK Maritime Sector, A report for Maritime UK. Available at https://www.maritimeuk.org/value/maritime-sector-all/.

42 Following the guidelines on application of the Scottish Government Input-Output Multipliers, see: https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Input-Output/Mulitipliers

43 Scottish input-output multipliers: Use table, see: https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Input-Output/Demand

44 The total for Scotland is greater than the totals for each region due to some Local Authority areas not having individually presented GVA figures for energy including renewables from the original data source.

45 Energy & Utility Skills (2018): Skills and labour requirements of the UK offshore wind industry 2018 to 2032, October 2018, available at: https://aurawindenergy.com/uploads/publications/Aura-EU-Skills-UK-Offshore-Wind-Skills-Study-Full-Report-October-2018.pdf on 19 February 2019.

46 This is calculated by summing jobs over the time period as a whole. This is different to number of jobs since one job may be supported for a number of years.

47 Equality Evidence Finder, accessed at: https://scotland.shinyapps.io/sg-equality-evidence-finder/#equality-npf-top on 28th February 2019.

48 Based on final use change by industry group for direct, indirect and induced effect (Type II) taken from the Leontief matrices from the Scottish input-output multipliers for 2015.

49 Ports identified as seeing positive impacts are those for where the Ports Handbook includes details of renewable activities that are currently or could be supported, or similar activities such as support vessels for oils and gas, as reported in the Ports of Scotland Yearbook: Maritime Publications Scotland Limited (2019): Ports of Scotland Yearbook 2019, 38th edition.

50 Based on the registered home ports of fishing vessels affected, as a proxy for where employment impacts may be felt.

51 https://www.mescg.co.uk/

52 BVG (2019): Guide to an offshore wind farm, updated and extended, published on behalf of the Crown Estate and the Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult, January 2019.

53 BVG (2018): Scottish Offshore Wind Supply Chain Gap Analysis Research, Update Report for Scottish Enterprise, September 2018.

54 Smart, G. & Noonan, M., 2018. Tidal Stream and Wave Energy Cost Reduction and Industrial Benefit: Summary Analysis.

55 https://www.economicmodeling.com/2011/10/14/understanding-location-quotient-2/ [accessed 16/10/2018].

56 ONS (2017): Location quotient data and industrial specialisation for local authorities available at https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/locationquotientdataandindustrialspecialisationforlocalauthorities [accessed 2/10/2018].

57 Type II multipliers capture a further round of impacts in the economy. This is the effect attributable to the ensuing change in compensation of employees and other incomes.

58 Ironside Farrar, 2018. Tiree Onshore Scenario Mapping, Final Report.

59 The statistics for unemployment are based on the International Labour Organisation definition and include those of a working age who were (a) without work during the reference period (b) currently available for work during the reference period and (c) seeking work. Future starters (persons who did not look for work but have a future labour market stake) and participants in skills or retraining schemes within employment promotion schemes are also counted as unemployed (based on definition of unemployment rate from: https://www.ilo.org/ilostat-files/Documents/description_UR_EN.pdf, accessed on 7 March 2019.

60 Marine Scotland, 2018. Sectoral Marine Plan for Offshore Wind Energy (encompassing Deep Water Plan Options), Social and Economic Impact Assessment, Scoping Report. June 2018. Available online at https://www.gov.scot/Resource/0053/00536625.pdf. Accessed 4 October 2018.

61 Ibid.

62 ABPmer and RPA, 2013. Developing the socio-economic evidence base for offshore renewable sectoral marine plans in Scottish Waters. Report R.2045, June 2013. Appendix B.

63 ACT Acorn, 2018. ACT Acorn Feasibility Study, D05 Site Selection Report, 10196ACTC-Reo-08-01, January 2018.

64 http://www.seafish.org/research-economics/industry-economics/seafish-fleet-economic-performance-data.

65 https://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Input-Output.

66 Depending on whether ping data from 2013-2017 are to be used, or whether a visual inspection of the VMS fishing intensity layers for 2009-2013 available on NMPi is required.

67 ABPmer, 2017. Displacement of Fishing Effort from Marine Protected Areas, ABPmer Report No. R.2790. Commissioned Reports, Number 241. York. Available online at http://publications.naturalengland.org.uk/file/6490305064337408. Accessed 11 January 2018.

68 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/wind-farms-ministry-of-defence-safeguarding/wind-farms-mod-safeguarding

69 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/wind-farms-ministry-of-defence-safeguarding/wind-farms-mod-safeguarding

70 Defra, 2012. Impact Assessment materials in support of the Regional Marine Conservation Zone Projects’ Recommendations. Annex H14. Available online at http://publications.naturalengland.org.uk/publication/1940011.

71 Prices for Rotterdam bunker, https://shipandbunker.com/prices/emea/nwe/nl-rtm-rotterdam

72 https://www.gov.uk/guidance/fuel-duty#rates

73 Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), 2005. Guidance on the assessment of the impacts of offshore wind farms: Seascape and visual impact report. Available online: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file22852.pdf

74 Riddington, G., Harrison, T., McArthur, D., Gibson, H., Millar, K. 2008. The economic impacts of wind farms on Scottish tourism. A report for the Scottish Government. March 2008.

75 Radford, A., Riddington, G. and Gibson, H., 2009. Economic Impact of Recreational Sea Angling in Scotland. Prepared for the Scottish Government. July 2009. ISBN: 978-0-7559-8130-4.

76 Radford, A., Riddington, G. and Gibson, H., 2009. Economic Impact of Recreational Sea Angling in Scotland. Prepared for the Scottish Government. July 2009. ISBN: 978-0-7559-8130-4.

77 Land Use Consultants (LUC), 2016. Scottish marine recreation and tourism survey 2015. Final report prepared by LUC, March 2016.

78 Maritime Publications Scotland Limited (2019): Ports of Scotland Yearbook 2019, 38th edition. Ports identified as seeing positive effects are those for where the Ports Handbook includes details of renewable activities that are currently or could be supported, or similar activities such as support vessels for oils and gas.

79 Maritime Publications Scotland Limited (2019): Ports of Scotland Yearbook 2019, 38th edition. Ports identified as seeing positive effects are those for where the Ports Handbook includes details of renewable activities that are currently or could be supported, or similar activities such as support vessels for oils and gas.

80 Maritime Publications Scotland Limited (2019): Ports of Scotland Yearbook 2019, 38th edition. Ports identified as seeing positive effects are those for where the Ports Handbook includes details of renewable activities that are currently or could be supported, or similar activities such as support vessels for oils and gas.

81 Maritime Publications Scotland Limited (2019): Ports of Scotland Yearbook 2019, 38th edition. Ports identified as seeing positive effects are those for where the Ports Handbook includes details of renewable activities that are currently or could be supported, or similar activities such as support vessels for oils and gas.

82 Maritime Publications Scotland Limited (2019): Ports of Scotland Yearbook 2019, 38th edition. Ports identified as being positively affected are those for where the Ports Handbook includes details of renewable activities that are currently or could be supported, or similar activities such as support vessels for oils and gas.

83 Based on change in value landings multiplied by the GVA effect for fishing.

84 Includes those ports with 5% or greater of the total value of affected landings (not 5% of the total landings to the port).

85 Based on average of landings from 2013 to 2017. Percentage impacts are based on the high scenario estimate of impacts on landings and relate to the percentage of total landings by vessels registered to the port (home port), or to the percentage of total landings at each port.

86 Based on project household size in 2030 which is the year in which the maximum number of jobs is created in the East. Statistics taken from statistics.gov.scot for household projections of average household size

87 Includes those ports with 5% or greater of the total value of affected landings (not 5% of the total landings to the port).

88 Based on average of landings from 2013 to 2017. Percentage impacts are based on the high scenario estimate of impacts on landings and relate to the percentage of total landings by vessels registered to the port (home port), or to the percentage of total landings at each port.

89 Based on project household size in 2033 which is the year in which the maximum number of jobs is created in the North East. Statistics taken from statistics.gov.scot for household projections of average household size

90 Includes those ports with 5% or greater of the total value of affected landings (not 5% of the total landings to the port).

91 Based on average of landings from 2013 to 2017. Percentage impacts are based on the high scenario estimate of impacts on landings and relate to the percentage of total landings by vessels registered to the port (home port), or to the percentage of total landings at each port.

92 Based on project household size in 2033 which is the year in which the maximum number of jobs is created in the North. Statistics taken from statistics.gov.scot for household projections of average household size

93 Includes those ports with 5% or greater of the total value of affected landings (not 5% of the total landings to the port).

94 Based on average of landings from 2013 to 2017. Percentage impacts are based on the high scenario estimate of impacts on landings and relate to the percentage of total landings by vessels registered to the port (home port), or to the percentage of total landings at each port.

95 Based on project household size in 2028 which is the year in which the maximum number of jobs is created in the West. Statistics taken from statistics.gov.scot for household projections of average household size

96 Includes those ports with 5% or greater of the total value of affected landings (not 5% of the total landings to the port).

97 Based on average of landings from 2013 to 2017. Percentage impacts are based on the high scenario estimate of impacts on landings and relate to the percentage of total landings by vessels registered to the port (home port), or to the percentage of total landings at each port.

98 Based on project household size in 2028 which is the year in which the maximum number of jobs is created in the South West. Statistics taken from statistics.gov.scot for household projections of average household size

99 Energy & Utility Skills (2018): Skills and labour requirements of the UK offshore wind industry 2018 to 2032, October 2018, available at: https://aurawindenergy.com/uploads/publications/Aura-EU-Skills-UK-Offshore-Wind-Skills-Study-Full-Report-October-2018.pdf on 19 February 2019.

100 Based on final use change by industry group for direct, indirect and induced effect (Type II) taken from the Leontief matrices from the Scottish input-output multipliers for 2015.

101 Based on final use change by industry group for direct, indirect and induced effect (Type II) taken from the Leontief matrices from the Scottish input-output multipliers for 2015.

102 Based on final use change by industry group for direct, indirect and induced effect (Type II) taken from the Leontief matrices from the Scottish input-output multipliers for 2015.

103 Based on final use change by industry group for direct, indirect and induced effect (Type II) taken from the Leontief matrices from the Scottish input-output multipliers for 2015.

104 Based on final use change by industry group for direct, indirect and induced effect (Type II) taken from the Leontief matrices from the Scottish input-output multipliers for 2015.

105 Based on final use change by industry group for direct, indirect and induced effect (Type II) taken from the Leontief matrices from the Scottish input-output multipliers for 2015.

106 This measures and ranks a country’s broad reputation across six dimensions of national competence (exports, governance, culture, people, tourism, investment and immigration).


Contact

Email: drew.milne@gov.scot