Publication - Impact assessment

Offshore wind energy - draft sectoral marine plan: social and economic impact assessment

Published: 18 Dec 2019
Directorate:
Marine Scotland Directorate
Part of:
Energy, Marine and fisheries
ISBN:
9781839603792

A social and economic impact assessment to support development of the draft sectoral marine plan for offshore wind energy.

316 page PDF

4.9 MB

Contents
Offshore wind energy - draft sectoral marine plan: social and economic impact assessment
C Detailed Approach to Supply-Side Positive Economic Impacts

C Detailed Approach to Supply-Side Positive Economic Impacts

C.1 Introduction

This Appendix provides the detailed assumptions and calculations from the estimation of supply side impacts. The approach is supported by a spreadsheet thus some of the numbers presented below may not sum due to rounding.

C.2 Step 1: Spend per GW per year

Levels of spend per GW are based on BVG (2019)[52]:

  • Development and project management: £120 million per GW;
  • Wind turbine supply: £1,000 million per GW (based on £10 million per 10 MW turbine and 100 turbines);
  • Balance of plant: £600 million per GW;
  • Installation and commissioning: £650 million per GW;
  • Operation, maintenance and service: £75 million per GW per year.

These are the initial costs and it could be assumed that some reduction in costs would occur over time as technology develops and efficiencies occur. The impact of reducing costs is considered in the sensitivity analysis. For the purposes of the assessment, it has been assumed that the costs of floating technologies are similar to fixed bottom technologies at the point that they become commercially viable.

Table 55 sets out total spend across each activity by region based on projected development levels. This is total spend that is divided into per GW per year to account for the duration of each activity. The per GW per year spend totals are then allocated to specific years in line with the projected investment profile.

Table 55 Spend per GW per year by activity

Activity Total spend
Total spend per GW Duration of activity Spend per GW per year
Development and project management £120,000,000 10 years £12,000,000
Wind turbine supply £1,000,000,000 2 years £500,000,000
Balance of plant £600,000,000 4 years £150,000,000
Installation and commissioning £650,000,000 4 years £162,500,000
Operation, maintenance and service (per year) £75,000,000 Annual £75,000,000

Durations per activity used to divide total spend to annual spend are:

  • Development and project management: 10 years;
  • Wind turbine supply: 2 years;
  • Balance of plant: 4 years;
  • Installation and commissioning: 4 years;
  • Operation, maintenance and service: 1 year (annual expenditure is provided in BVG, 2019).

Table 56 presents the projected spend in each region for each scenario.

Table 56 Regional scenarios used as the basis for level of spend

Region Regional Low Scenario (GW) Regional Medium Scenario (GW) Regional High Scenario (GW)
East 1 2 3
North East 1.5 3 4.5
North 1 2 3
West 0.5 1 2
South West 0.3 0.6 1
Total (regional) 5 10 15.5
National (factored back) 3 5 10

C.3 Step 2: Spend retained in Scotland

Assumptions are required on the industry supply chain needs associated with the scale of future developments and the proposed technologies. This ensures that leakage outside of Scotland is excluded from the positive economic impacts. The total of spend retained within the Scottish regions varies according to the year in which spending is projected to occur. The capacity of the supply chain in Scotland to deliver these needs depends upon the programme of spending and where spend will be targeted. A review of available literature (Appendix B) provides an indication of the current capacity of the supply chain.

Assumptions have been made about the percentage of spend that is retained in Scotland. The potential retention rates draw on a number of studies, in particular BVG (2018)[53] which provides an update on supply chain capability, building on an earlier BVG report from 2014. Retention rates for Smith & Noonan[54] are used as upper estimates, given that these relate to wave and tidal energy, rather than wind energy. These studies are used to provide estimates in Scotland by activity to inform the potential retention rates for lower, mid and upper levels of local retention (Table 57). The table includes percentage retention figures for 2050. These reflect potential growth of the supply chain towards the end of the appraisal period and as such are assumed to only be applicable beyond the life of the plan that is assessed here. The proposed percentages are based on:

  • Lower estimates: BVG (2018) without adjustment to account for those elements excluded, i.e. assuming that excluded elements would be developed outside Scotland. Since BVG (2018) only includes opportunity for now and in 2030, it is assumed that growth to 2050 is linear and occurs at the same rate as between now and 2030;
  • Mid estimates: BVG (2018) with adjustment to account for elements excluded, i.e. expenditure on any activities not allocated an opportunity estimate in BVG (2018) is ignored in the calculations with retention rates based just on those activities for which an opportunity estimate is given;
  • Upper estimates: Smith & Noonan (2018) with the low values used for 2020, increasing to medium in 2030 and to high in 2050.

Table 57 Potential percentages for local retention related to supply chain capacity, by project activity

Activity Revised percentages for retention in Scotland
Lower Mid Upper
Now 2030 2050 Now 2030 2050 Now 2030 2050
Development and project management 0.1% 3% 5% 1% 20% 40% 20% 40% 70%
Wind turbine supply 2% 12% 22% 3% 14% 25% 10% 20% 30%
Balance of plant 3% 9% 15% 4% 23% 42% 50% 60% 70%
Installation and commissioning 1% 6% 11% 2% 7% 12% 40% 60% 80%
Operation, maintenance and service 10% 11% 12% 14% 16% 18% 30% 50% 70%
Overall 5% 11% 17% 7% 15% 22% 30% 46% 63%

These percentages can be applied regionally using Location Quotients (LQs). LQs show how concentrated a particular industry, cluster, occupation, or demographic group is in a region as compared to the nation. They reveal what makes a particular region ‘unique’ in comparison to the national average[55]. LQs are produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and area available at NUTS2 for Scotland[56]. The LQs are averaged across the relevant NUTS2 areas and assigned to one of the Draft Plan Option regions (East, North East, North, West, South West).

The relevant industry sectors are then aligned with the five main activities:

  • Development and project management: M – professional, scientific and technical services;
  • Wind turbine supply: C – manufacturing;
  • Balance of plant: F – construction;
  • Installation and commissioning: F – construction and H – transportation and storage; and
  • Operation, maintenance and service: D – electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply.

Whereas multipliers are available for Scotland, multipliers are not produced at a smaller scale, i.e. regional level. D’Hernoncourt, Cordier and Hadley (2011) note that in order to disaggregate the multipliers to enable a refined local-based analysis, the national or regional multipliers often need to be re-scaled to the local level. The approach has included the development and use of Location Quotients. A Location Quotient (LQ) quantifies the concentration of an industry in a region compared with the nation.

This is calculated as follows:

Cost formula

LQs can then been applied to national output multipliers for the specific type of industry and expenditure to derive regional multipliers for the expenditure at destination level. The results show the impacts (or contribution) to the regional economy (in terms of GVA) and employment (in terms of FTE) as a result of spend in each particular region.

The lower, mid and upper percentages for retention are assigned according to the mean LQ for each region. The retention rates are based on upper being greater than the 75% quartile and lower being less than the 50% quartile (with mid falling in between). The results are shown in Table 58 below. This provides the starting percentage (now) for each region, with increases occurring from that starting point to reflect the current status of the supply chain and the extent to which it may grow through the pipeline of development.

Table 58 Retention rate assumptions per region based on LQs

Region Development and project management (M) Wind turbine supply (C) Balance of plant (F) Installation and commissioning (mean of F and H) Operation, maintenance and service (D)
East Upper Mid Mid Mid Upper
North East Lower Lower Upper Upper Mid
North Lower Lower Mid Mid Lower
West Mid Lower Lower Lower Lower
South West Lower Mid Lower Lower Lower
National Mid Lower Mid Mid Mid

The percentages shown in Table 58 are used as the basis for development of the scenario storylines for each region. The scenario storyline for each region is summarised in Appendix B. The amount of spend (and hence jobs and GVA) is based on local spend initially before being scaled back at the national level on a pro-rata basis.

Start and end retention rates vary over the timeframe as the supply chain develops to meet demand. Table 59 presents the start and end retention rates for each activity, based on growth of the supply chain due to a pipeline of projects across the regions. Note that the 2050 retention rates are not used in the estimation of supply side impacts; these are assumed to be potentially attained by the end of the appraisal timeframe and could form the basis of future positive effects beyond the timeframe of the Plan.

Table 59 Percentage retention rates at the start and end of the project timescale

Activity Revised percentages for retention in Scotland
Lower Mid Upper
Now 2030 2050 Now 2030 2050 Now 2030 2050
Development and project management 0.1% 3% 5% 1% 20% 40% 20% 40% 70%
Wind turbine supply 2% 12% 22% 3% 14% 25% 10% 20% 30%
Balance of plant 3% 9% 15% 4% 23% 42% 50% 60% 70%
Installation and commissioning 1% 6% 11% 2% 7% 12% 40% 60% 80%
Operation, maintenance and service 10% 11% 12% 14% 16% 18% 30% 50% 70%
Overall 5% 11% 17% 7% 15% 22% 30% 46% 63%

C.4 Step 3: Allocation of spend to the scenario timelines

It is unlikely that all spending would be undertaken at once, indeed, this would be undesirable from an economic perspective as it would give no time or opportunity for growth in supply chains. Assumptions are made, therefore, on the timing of spend for each scenario, each region and nationally based on the assumptions concerning overall project time lines.

Given the nature of project development, construction and then operation, the different stages are phased across the 40 year time period used for the assessment as follows:

  • Development and project management: occurs over a ten year period for each GW between 2021 and 2031 (years 1 to 10), to ensure that the wind farms are operational in line with the spend profile
  • Wind turbine supply: occurs over a two year period towards the end of development and project management, i.e. in years 8 and 9 of development and project management
  • Balance of plant: occurs over a four year period towards the end of development and project management, i.e. years 7 to 10 of development and project management
  • Installation and commissioning: occurs over a four year period towards the end of development and project management, i.e. years 7 to 10 of development and project management
  • Operation, maintenance and service: occurs annually once installation and commissioning has been completed for 30 years or until the end of the appraisal time period is reached (i.e. 2059).

Table 60 provides the total spend for each region taking into account total spend, i.e. total number of GW that are projected to be installed in each region over the total appraisal period (2020-2059).

The timing of spend varies by region and scenario to ensure that there is a reasonable spread of development across the appraisal period. Table 61 sets out the projected spend profile for each region and nationally for each scenario showing which activities are projected to occur and when.

Table 60 Projected total spend levels per region

Region and Stage Regional Low Scenario
(£ millions)
Regional Medium Scenario
(£ millions)
Regional High Scenario
(£ millions)
East
Development and project management £12 £24 £36
Wind turbine supply £500 £1,000 £1,500
Balance of plant £150 £300 £450
Installation and commissioning £163 £326 £489
Operation, maintenance and service (per year) £75 £150 £225
North East
Development and project management £18 £36 £54
Wind turbine supply £750 £1,500 £2,250
Balance of plant £225 £450 £675
Installation and commissioning £245 £489 £734
Operation, maintenance and service (per year) £113 £225 £338
North
Development and project management £12 £24 £36
Wind turbine supply £500 £1,000 £1,500
Balance of plant £150 £300 £450
Installation and commissioning £163 £326 £489
Operation, maintenance and service (per year) £75 £150 £225
West
Development and project management £6 £12 £24
Wind turbine supply £250 £500 £1,000
Balance of plant £75 £150 £300
Installation and commissioning £82 £163 £326
Operation, maintenance and service (per year) £38 £75 £150
South West
Development and project management £4 £7 £12
Wind turbine supply £150 £300 £500
Balance of plant £45 £90 £150
Installation and commissioning £49 £98 £163
Operation, maintenance and service (per year) £23 £45 £75

Table 61 Spend profile by activity and region

Table 61 Spend profile by activity and region

Table 61 Spend profile by activity and region

Table 61 Spend profile by activity and region

C.5 Step 4: GVA per region

The impacts are based on change in spend, or output, for each activity. Therefore, the GVA effect is used (rather than the GVA multiplier) for GVA impacts. Spend can be converted to GVA per region by using the GVA effect. Both the Type I (direct and indirect effects) and Type II (direct, indirect and induced effects) are applied[57]. The multipliers used are set out in Table 62 with the results for each region and activity for each of the three scenarios in Table 63 for GVA Type I and Type II. The values set out in Table 63 are undiscounted and provide the total GVA across three ten year periods (2020-2029, 2030-2039, 2040-2049 and 2050-2059).

Table 62 GVA effect multipliers used in the analysis (based on Scottish Government, 2018 with data being for 2015)

Activity GVA effect
SIC code Type I Type II
Development and project management 71 0.7 0.9
Wind turbine supply 28 0.5 0.6
Balance of plant 41-43 0.7 0.8
Installation and commissioning 41-43 0.7 0.8
Operation, maintenance and service (per year) 33 0.7 0.9

Table 63 GVA impacts based on Type I and Type II GVA effect

Scenario and region GVA impacts (undiscounted)
Low, Type I 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East £56,020,000 £265,860,000 £262,500,000 £262,500,000
North East £402,096,600 £402,582,000 £126,000,000 £126,000,000
North £18,004,600 £138,419,500 £57,750,000 £57,750,000
West £13,953,000 £29,715,000 £28,875,000 £28,875,000
South West £9,667,680 £17,400,600 £17,325,000 £17,325,000
National £36,992,000 £529,780,000 £253,680,000 £252,000,000
Low, Type II 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East £67,040,000 £341,820,000 £337,500,000 £337,500,000
North East £460,124,200 £477,534,000 £162,000,000 £162,000,000
North £20,870,200 £166,221,500 £74,250,000 £74,250,000
West £16,286,000 £38,205,000 £37,125,000 £37,125,000
South West £11,309,160 £22,372,200 £22,275,000 £22,275,000
National £43,004,000 £634,160,000 £326,160,000 £324,000,000
Medium, Type I 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East £62,740,000 £615,720,000 £525,000,000 £525,000,000
North East £402,126,000 £1,324,980,000 £252,000,000 £252,000,000
North £36,009,200 £276,839,000 £115,500,000 £115,500,000
West £27,906,000 £59,430,000 £57,750,000 £57,750,000
South West £9,677,760 £67,046,700 £34,650,000 £34,650,000
National £43,887,000 £830,982,500 £532,465,000 £420,000,000
Medium, Type II 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East £75,680,000 £767,290,000 £675,000,000 £675,000,000
North East £460,162,000 £1,543,260,000 £324,000,000 £324,000,000
North £41,740,400 £332,443,000 £148,500,000 £148,500,000
West £32,572,000 £76,410,000 £74,250,000 £74,250,000
South West £11,322,120 £81,612,900 £44,550,000 £44,550,000
National £50,944,000 £993,340,000 £670,280,000 £540,000,000
High, Type I 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East £62,740,000 £844,410,000 £790,860,000 £787,500,000
North East £603,189,000 £1,987,470,000 £378,000,000 £378,000,000
North £36,009,200 £467,557,000 £173,502,000 £173,250,000
West £28,242,000 £223,485,000 £115,500,000 £115,500,000
South West £16,129,600 £111,744,500 £57,750,000 £57,750,000
National £87,774,000 £1,661,965,000 £1,064,930,000 £840,000,000
High, Type II 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East £75,680,000 £1,036,970,000 £1,016,820,000 £1,012,500,000
North East £690,243,000 £2,314,890,000 £486,000,000 £486,000,000
North £41,740,400 £554,159,000 £223,074,000 £222,750,000
West £33,004,000 £272,895,000 £148,500,000 £148,500,000
South West £18,870,200 £136,021,500 £74,250,000 £74,250,000
National £101,888,000 £1,986,680,000 £1,340,560,000 £1,080,000,000

C.6 Step 5: Employment per region

The impacts of increased GVA per region can be expressed in terms of number of Full-Time Equivalent (FTEs) jobs created and supported. The job numbers are estimated by applying the employment effect multiplier to the GVA retained in each region (in £ millions). As with GVA both the Type I (direct and indirect effects) and Type II (direct, indirect and induced effects) are applied. The multipliers used are presented in Table 64.

Table 64 Employment effect Type I and Type II multipliers used in the analysis (based on Scottish Government, 2018 with data being for 2015)

Activity Employment effect
SIC code Type I Type II
Development and project management 71 12.2 14.5
Wind turbine supply 28 9.8 11.8
Balance of plant 41-43 12.3 14.4
Installation and commissioning 41-43 12.3 14.4
Operation, maintenance and service (per year) 33 9.2 11.3

The number of FTEs supported and created by the level of spend is estimated by applying the employment effect to the retained spend (in £ millions). The results in terms of number of FTEs are shown in Table 65 as a maximum number of jobs within each of the ten-year periods. The maximum number of jobs is provided, rather than the sum, since many of the activities last more than one year, hence, the same job may be created and then supported over the duration of the activity.

Table 65 Regional employment impacts based on Type I and Type II employment effect

Scenario and region Employment (maximum number of FTEs)
Low, Type I 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East 174 282 242 242
North East 1,255 1,033 116 116
North 64 373 53 53
West 51 37 27 27
South West 38 17 16 16
National 131 864 252 232
Low, Type II 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East 244 444 381 381
North East 1,684 1,417 183 183
North 89 521 84 84
West 71 58 42 42
South West 53 27 25 25
National 180 1,229 397 366
Medium, Type I 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East 194 1,020 483 483
North East 1,255 2,066 232 232
North 129 745 106 106
West 103 74 53 53
South West 38 180 32 32
National 211 1,357 1,019 386
Medium, Type II 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East 275 1,468 763 763
North East 1,684 2,834 366 366
North 178 1,042 168 168
West 143 115 84 84
South West 53 256 50 50
National 289 1,911 1,473 610
High, Type I 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East 194 1,262 765 725
North East 1,882 3,099 348 348
North 129 798 162 159
West 71 568 106 106
South West 63 300 53 53
National 423 2,714 2,037 773
High, Type II 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East 275 1,849 1,207 1,144
North East 2,526 4,250 549 549
North 178 1,126 256 252
West 144 808 168 168
South West 89 426 84 84
National 577 3,821 2,946 1,220

C.7 Step 6: Local versus relocated jobs

Ironside Farrar (2018)[58] gives a breakdown of jobs available to local people and those for people relocating. Typically in Tiree, around 25% of jobs are for local people and 75% for those relocating.

Assumptions also need to be made on the proportion of jobs that will be available to local people, versus those moving into the area to take up new jobs. In estimating the net impact on jobs for Scotland, relocation will have to be considered. Ironside Farrar (2018) identifies that 25% of jobs created are typically taken by local people while 75% are taken by those relocating to the area. The total number of local and relocated jobs are shown in Table 66 for both Type I and Type II jobs over three ten year periods As shown in the tables, the largest number of jobs is expected during 2030–2039, which mostly coincides with the construction period. These employment impacts will cease however being transitional in nature (and likely to be filled in by people being relocated to the areas). This is important information for the social impact assessment. In terms of supply chain impacts, some of those relocating may come from other regions in Scotland, rather than outside Scotland.

Table 66 Local and relocated jobs

Scenario and region Employment (maximum number of FTEs)
2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
Low, Direct Local Relocated Local Relocated Local Relocated Local Relocated
East 35 104 62 185 53 159 53 159
North East 234 703 199 596 25 76 25 76
North 13 38 74 222 12 35 12 35
West 10 31 8 24 6 17 6 17
South West 8 23 4 11 3 10 3 10
National 26 77 174 522 55 166 51 153
Low, Type I Local Relocated Local Relocated Local Relocated Local Relocated
East 43 130 71 212 60 181 60 181
North East 314 941 258 775 29 87 29 87
North 16 48 93 279 13 40 13 40
West 13 39 9 28 7 20 7 20
South West 9 28 4 13 4 12 4 12
National 33 98 216 648 63 189 58 174
Low, Type II 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East 61 183 111 333 95 286 95 286
North East 421 1,263 354 1,063 46 137 46 137
North 22 67 130 391 21 63 21 63
West 18 54 14 43 10 31 10 31
South West 13 40 7 20 6 19 6 19
National 45 135 307 922 99 298 92 275
Medium, Direct 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East 39 117 208 624 106 318 106 318
North East 234 703 397 1,191 51 153 51 153
North 25 76 148 445 23 70 23 70
West 20 61 16 48 12 35 12 35
South West 8 23 37 110 7 21 7 21
National 41 122 269 806 208 624 85 254
Medium, Type I 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East 49 146 255 765 121 362 121 362
North East 314 941 517 1,550 58 174 58 174
North 32 97 186 559 27 80 27 80
West 26 77 18 55 13 40 13 40
South West 9 28 45 135 8 24 8 24
National 53 159 339 1,018 255 764 97 290
Medium, Type II 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East 69 207 367 1,101 191 572 191 572
North East 421 1,263 708 2,125 92 275 92 275
North 44 133 260 781 42 126 42 126
West 36 107 29 86 21 63 21 63
South West 13 40 64 192 13 38 13 38
National 72 216 478 1,433 368 1,105 153 458
High, Direct 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East 39 117 261 783 168 503 159 477
North East 352 1,055 596 1,787 76 229 76 229
North 25 76 160 479 36 107 35 105
West 21 62 116 347 23 70 23 70
South West 13 38 61 184 12 35 12 35
National 81 244 538 1,613 416 1,248 170 509
High, Type I 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East 49 146 315 946 191 574 181 543
North East 471 1,412 775 2,324 87 261 87 261
North 32 97 200 599 41 122 40 120
West 26 78 142 426 27 80 27 80
South West 16 47 75 225 13 40 13 40
National 106 317 678 2,035 509 1,528 193 580
High, Type II 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East 69 207 462 1,387 302 905 286 858
North East 632 1,895 1,063 3,188 137 412 137 412
North 44 133 281 844 64 192 63 189
West 36 108 202 606 42 126 42 126
South West 22 66 107 320 21 63 21 63
National 144 433 955 2,866 736 2,209 305 915

The potential impacts in terms of displacement draw on unemployment statistics. The statistics used are those for people without a job who have been actively seeking work within the past four weeks and who are available to begin work within two weeks; the assumption being that the jobs will be filled in by this group. This is different from the proportion of the total population that is unemployed[59] but is appropriate for use here as the aim is to identify the extent to which the local job markets may be able to supply the required workforce with an immediate effect. Note this figure does not take account of skill level.

Table 67 identifies the number of unemployed people within each region (based on statistics for 2018 Q4) in Scotland. Where a local authority area is captured in more than one region, it is assumed that the number of unemployed people is equally distributed across all of the relevant regions.

Table 67 Number of unemployed people per region

Local authorities by region
Region Local authorities included within that region Total number of unemployed people
East Aberdeen City
Aberdeenshire
Angus
Clackmannanshire
Dundee City
East Lothian
Edinburgh, City of
Falkirk
Fife
Midlothian
Moray (also North East)
North Lanarkshire (also West)
Perth & Kinross (also West)
Scottish Borders (also South West)
South Lanarkshire
West Lothian
42,650
North East Highland (also West and North)
Orkney Islands (also North)
Shetland Islands
6,000
North Eilean Siar
Highland (also West and North East)
8,000
West Argyll & Bute
East Dunbartonshire
East Renfrewshire
Glasgow City
Inverclyde
North Ayrshire
Renfrewshire
Stirling
West Dunbartonshire
Highland (also North East and North)
38,150
South West Dumfries & Galloway
East Ayrshire (also West)
South Ayrshire
19,600
Notes: Number of unemployed people based on unemployment model based estimates from https://statistics.gov.scot

Table 68 provides the proportion of total unemployed represented by the number of jobs projected to be created under each scenario. Jobs are grouped over three periods over which they may be created.

Table 68 shows that, for most regions, the number of jobs created is a relatively small proportion in terms of total numbers of unemployed people with the exception being the North East. The maximum percentage is in the North East, where the proportion reaches 19% under the high scenario (Type II). For most regions, therefore, it could be expected that displacement will not have a significant effect since there is sufficient capacity within the current levels of unemployment to fill the wind farm jobs or for those choosing to move from another job into wind farm work. There may be issue with the appropriate level of skills being available, although reductions in jobs associated with other skilled areas, such as oil and gas, could help reduce any potential skill shortages.

Table 68 Proportion of unemployed represented by the projected number of jobs created per region (local jobs only)

Scenario and region Employment (maximum number of FTEs)
2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
Low, Type I Local Local Local Local
East 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
North East 5.2% 4.3% 0.5% 0.5%
North 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2%
West 0.03% 0.02% 0.02% 0.0%
South West 0.05% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
National 0.03% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Low, Type II 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%
North East 7.4% 6.2% 0.8% 0.8%
North 0.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0.3%
West 0.1% 0.05% 0.03% 0.0%
South West 0.1% 0.1% 0.03% 0.03%
National 0.04% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Medium, Type I 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3%
North East 5.2% 8.6% 1.0% 1.0%
North 0.4% 2.3% 0.3% 0.3%
West 0.1% 0.05% 0.03% 0.0%
South West 0.05% 0.2% 0.04% 0.04%
National 0.05% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
Medium, Type II 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East 0.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4%
North East 7.6% 12.3% 1.5% 1.5%
North 0.9% 3.7% 0.5% 0.5%
West 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
South West 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
National 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%
High, Type I 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4%
North East 7.8% 12.9% 1.4% 1.4%
North 0.4% 2.5% 0.5% 0.5%
West 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
South West 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
National 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2%
High, Type II 2020-2029 2030-2039 2040-2049 2050-2059
East 0.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.7%
North East 11.3% 18.5% 2.3% 2.3%
North 0.9% 3.9% 1.0% 0.8%
West 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1%
South West 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1%
National 0.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3%

Contact

Email: drew.milne@gov.scot