Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update

Footnotes

1. accessed on 17 November, data relate to 14 November

2. Source: Daily COVID-19 Cases in Scotland - Daily Case Trends By Health Board - Scottish Health and Social Care Open Data (nhs.scot) Accessed 28 September 2021 with data up to 24 September 2021.

3. Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

4. Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

5. All scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions. Data to 15th November.

6. The actual positive tests are adjusted to coincide with the estimated day of infection.

7. Actual data does not include full numbers of . bed actuals include all patients being treated for Covid-19 including those over 28 days.

8. Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

9. accessed on 27 September, data relate to 26 September

10. COVID-19 Vaccination in Scotland - Daily Trend of Vaccinations by Age Group and Sex - Scottish Health and Social Care Open Data (nhs.scot) accessed on 28 September, data relate to 26 September

11. NHS Performs - weekly update of emergency department activity and waiting time statistics - Week ending 31 October 2021 - NHS Performs - weekly update of emergency department activity and waiting time statistics - Publications - Public Health Scotland

12. Stage of treatment waiting times - Inpatients, day cases and new outpatients 31 August 2021 - NHS waiting times - stage of treatment - Publications - Public Health Scotland

13. Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic in Scotland (Issue No. 69) (www.gov.scot)

14. The aims of the scheme were to: i) reduce risk of transmission, ii) reduce risk of serious illness and death and in doing so alleviate pressure on the healthcare system, iii) act as a first line defence to allow high risk settings to continue to operate as an alternative to closure or more restrictive measures, iv) increase vaccine uptake.

15. Public attitudes to coronavirus: tracker - data tables - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) Opinion polling is carried out by for the Scottish Government: conducted fortnightly with a sample of c.1000 adults 18+ across Scotland – demographically and geographically representative of the online population; fieldwork conducted mainly Tuesday/Wednesday on the dates shown with a small number of interviews on the Thursday morning.

16. . NB percentages are calculated on population estimates, more information can be found here Coronavirus (COVID-19): vaccinations data – technical note - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

17. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

18. https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19

19. Source: online survey. Total sample size on 2-4 November was 1002 adults. Sample size for those who have not yet received their first vaccine was 45 adults. 'Likely' to be vaccinated refers to respondents who rated themselves 8 to 10 on a scale of 0-10 for the question: How likely or unlikely are you to be vaccinated for when a vaccine becomes available to you? (Please select a number between 0 and 10, where 0 means 'extremely unlikely' and 10 means 'extremely likely')

20. Total likely was those who score 8-10 on a scale. For full data table see: Public attitudes to coronavirus: tracker - data tables - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

21. Robertson, E. et al (2021). Predictors of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in the UK household longitudinal study. Brain, Behavior, and Immunity, Volume 94

2021, p. 41-50.

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82. Home - COVID-19 Green Certification (dgc.gov.it)

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84. About the Norwegian COVID-19 certificate - NIPH (fhi.no)

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87. S1401_University_of_Oxford_and_Nuffield_College_The_impact_of_mandatory_COVID-19_certificates_on_vaccine_uptake_Synthetic_Control_Modelling_of_Six_Countries__14_October_2021.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

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93. Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

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101. 40 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/transmission-of-sars-cov-2-and-mitigating-measures-update-4-june-2020

102. 51 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/pheemg-aerosol-and-droplet-generation-from-singing-wind-instruments-and-performance-activities-13-august-2020

103. 76 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/emg-application-of-physical-distancing-and-fabric-face-coverings-in-mitigating-the-b117-variant-sars-cov-2-virus-in-public-workplace-and-community, 13 January 2021.

104. 76 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/emg-application-of-physical-distancing-and-fabric-face-coverings-in-mitigating-the-b117-variant-sars-cov-2-virus-in-public-workplace-and-community, 13 January 2021.

105. 60 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-60-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-1-october-2020

106. 60 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/emg-role-of-ventilation-in-controlling-sars-cov-2-transmission-30-september-2020

107. 76 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/emg-application-of-physical-distancing-and-fabric-face-coverings-in-mitigating-the-b117-variant-sars-cov-2-virus-in-public-workplace-and-community, 13 January 2021

108. EMG, SPI-M and SPI-B: Considerations in implementing long-term 'baseline' NPIs, 22 April 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

109. Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification scheme debate: Deputy First Minister's statement - 9 September 2021 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

110. EMG, SPI-M and SPI-B: Considerations in implementing long-term 'baseline' NPIs, 22 April 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

111. SAGE 79 minutes: Coronavirus (COVID-19) response, 4 February 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

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113. Coronavirus (COVID-19): mandatory vaccine certification - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

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121. S1401_University_of_Oxford_and_Nuffield_College_The_impact_of_mandatory_COVID-19_certificates_on_vaccine_uptake_Synthetic_Control_Modelling_of_Six_Countries__14_October_2021.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

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123. Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection (who.int)

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129. Asymptomatic testing for SARS-CoV-2 using antigen-detecting lateral flow devices: evidence from performance data October 2020 – May 2021 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

130. Research and analysis overview: Testing when symptomatic, and staying at home with influenza-like illness, during autumn and winter 2021, 30 September 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

131. Coronavirus (COVID-19): Get a test if you do not have symptoms | NHS inform

132. Options for the use of rapid antigen tests for COVID-19 in the EU/EEA - first update (europa.eu)

133. Longitudinal Assessment of Diagnostic Test Performance Over the Course of Acute SARS-CoV-2 Infection | The Journal of Infectious Diseases | Oxford Academic (oup.com)

134. False results and hacking: reopening of Dutch clubs proves to be problematic – DutchReview

135. Netherlands lifted COVID restrictions too soon, PM apologizes | News | DW | 12.07.2021

136. Netherlands to reopen further with coronavirus entry passes | News item | Government.nl

137. Fake Covid vaccine and test certificate market is growing, researchers say | Coronavirus | The Guardian

138. Can the US crack down on fake vaccination cards? - BBC News

139. Fake COVID vaccine certificates sold on dark web for €150 | Euronews

140. France forced to soften rules after coronavirus green pass backlash – POLITICO

141. Proof of Vaccination Guidance for Businesses and Organizations under the Reopening Ontario Act (gov.on.ca)

142. Research and analysis overview: VEEP: Vaccine effectiveness table, 24 September 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

143. COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 45 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

144. COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 45 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

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146. Community transmission and viral load kinetics of the SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in the UK: a prospective, longitudinal, cohort study - The Lancet Infectious Diseases

147. The impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination on Alpha & Delta variant transmission | medRxiv

148. Research and analysis overview: VEEP: Vaccine effectiveness table, 24 September 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

149. Waning Immunity after the BNT162b2 Vaccine in Israel | NEJM

150. Correlation of SARS-CoV-2-breakthrough infections to time-from-vaccine | Nature Communications

151. Waning of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies targeting the Spike protein in individuals post second dose of ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccines and risk of breakthrough infections: analysis of the Virus Watch community cohort | medRxiv

152. COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports (weeks 39 to 45) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

153. Waning of BNT162b2 Vaccine Protection against SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Qatar | NEJM

154. Vaccine effectiveness and duration of protection of Comirnaty, Vaxzevria and Spikevax against mild and severe COVID-19 in the UK | medRxiv

155.

156. Effectiveness of a third dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine for preventing severe outcomes in Israel: an observational study - The Lancet

157. Pfizer and BioNTech Announce Phase 3 Trial Data Showing High Efficacy of a Booster Dose of Their COVID-19 Vaccine | Pfizer

158. Public attitudes to COVID-19 vaccines: A qualitative study | medRxiv

159. Covid-19 vaccine passports and vaccine hesitancy: freedom or control? - The BMJ

160. Why "one size fits all" is not enough when designing COVID-19 immunity certificates for domestic use: a UK wide cross-sectional online survey | medRxiv

161. COVID-19 immunity (or vaccine) passports: a documentary overview and analysis of regimes of health verification within the coronavirus pandemic | Emerald Insight

162. Respondents were asked the following 'Still thinking about the vaccine certification scheme that started in Scotland…. Which of the following, if any, do you think are ADVANTAGES/DISADVANTAGES of having this Covid vaccine certification scheme place in Scotland? They were then given a list and asked to select all that they thought applied.

163. Opinion polling is carried out by YouGov for the Scottish Government: conducted fortnightly with a sample of c.1000 adults 18+ across Scotland – demographically and geographically representative of the online population; fieldwork conducted mainly Tuesday/Wednesday on the dates shown with a small number of interviews on the Thursday morning

164. Coronavirus (COVID-19): Highest Risk – interviews report – August 2021 (www.gov.scot)

165. The 'highest risk list' was previously known as the 'shielding list' and contains around 180,000 people, the majority of whom were previously asked to shield by the Chief Medical Officer ().

166. COVID-19: Highest Risk – Survey report - July 2021 (www.gov.scot)

167. Base –All who have accessed universal testing (n=641)

168. Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper - gov.scot (www.gov.scot); The Health Protection (Coronavirus) (Requirements) (Scotland) Amendment (No. 2) Regulations 2021 (legislation.gov.uk)

169. Meeting of the Parliament: 16/11/2021 | Scottish Parliament Website

170. Source: direct engagement between hospitality stakeholder representative groups and Scottish Government officials, October – November 2021.

171. Edinburgh nightclub scraps Covid vaccine passports amid huge decline in footfall - Edinburgh Live

172. Source; FSB reveals small business vaccine passport polling | FSB, The Federation of Small Businesses; subsequent direct engagement between Scottish Government officials and Scotland.

173. Edinburgh revives Hogmanay street party, gardens concert and midnight fireworks | The Scotsman

174. Glasgow's Christmas lights switch on cancelled in favour of virtual event - Glasgow Live

175. Events Industry defined here using the following SIC2007 codes:

5621 : Event catering activities

9001 : Performing arts

9002 : Support activities to performing arts

9004 : Operation of arts facilities

9311 : Operation of sports facilities

9312 : Activities of sport clubs

68202 : Letting and operating of conference and exhibition centres

74209 : Other photographic activities (not including portrait and other specialist photography and film processing)

79909 : Other reservation service activities (not including activities of tourist guides)

82301 : Activities of exhibition and fair organizers

82302 : Activities of conference organizers

93199 : Other sports activities (not including activities of racehorse owners)

176. Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, 2020

177. Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec 2019, .

178. As per previous work for Nightclub related ( p54-71: The Health Protection (Coronavirus) (Restrictions and Requirements) (Local Levels) (Scotland) Regulations 2020 (legislation.gov.uk) –Nightclub businesses are defined here as non-charity licensed clubs (within Standard Industrial Classification code 56.301). Nightclubs and sexual entertainment businesses in Scotland fall under this classification. The code definition of nightclubs used here does not align perfectly with the definition of nightclubs used in certification regulations. These statistics therefore represent a best estimate.

179. Gross value added () represents the amount that individual businesses, industries or sectors contribute to the economy. It is the value of an industry's outputs less the value of intermediate inputs used in the production process.

180. Source: Night Time Industries Association (2021), Covid Status Certification: Scotland Briefing Paper. The also suggested there may potentially be up to 1,500 premises that may operate with some of the late night venues with music, alcohol and dancing characteristics ( late opening, dancefloors, loud music). However, it was not currently clear the extent to which all or some of these premises would fall within scope of the regulations.

181. The Health Protection (Coronavirus) (Restrictions and Requirements) (Local Levels) (Scotland) Regulations 2020 (legislation.gov.uk), pages 40-53.

182. Source: , 2020. These include the estimated numbers of employees mentioned in the section describing nightclubs and late night settings.

183. Scottish Government analysis. estimates are based on data as at October 2021 and exclude premises flagged as vacant or in receipt of Empty Property Relief. Inter-Departmental Business Register (March 2021) estimates for cafes are based on Sub-class 56.10/2.

184. Scottish Government analysis, based on data from Food Standards Scotland's Scottish National Database.

185. BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 42 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

186. GDP Monthly Estimate: August 2021 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

187. Scottish Government analysis of Monthly Business Survey

188. Scottish Annual Business Survey, Scottish Annual Business Statistics () 2018, Scottish Annual Business Statistics 2018 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot). Note that excludes financial sector & parts of agriculture and the public sector.

189. Source: BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 42 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

190. Source: direct engagement between hospitality stakeholder organisations and Scottish Government officials, October – November 2021.

191. For instance, the Markit Report on Jobs, October 2021 reported continued strong growth in August in temporary and permanent Hotel & Catering staff vacancies in Scotland, albeit after unprecedented declines in Spring 2020. Royal Bank of Scotland Report on Jobs - October (natwestgroup.com)

192. https://www.ukhospitality.org.uk/news/587027/; FSB reveals small business vaccine passport polling | FSB, The Federation of Small Businesses; direct engagement between Scottish Government officials and hospitality stakeholder organisations, October – November 2021..

193. Opinion polling is carried out by YouGov for the Scottish Government: conducted fortnightly with a sample of c.1000 adults 18+ across Scotland – demographically and geographically representative of the online population; fieldwork conducted mainly Tuesday/Wednesday on the dates shown with a small number of interviews on the Thursday morning.

194. Scottish household survey 2019: culture and heritage - report - gov.scot (www.gov.scot), Table 3.3.

195. . Data accessed 18 November, covering 17 November.

196. GDP Monthly Estimate: August 2021 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

197. https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/media/10181/21-11-17-covid19-publication_report.pdf

198. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/phs.covid.19/viz/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

199. https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/covid-19-vaccinations-archive/

200. Business and innovation statistics - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

201. Public attitudes to coronavirus: tracker - data tables - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

202. Research and analysis overview: : Vaccine effectiveness table, 24 September 2021 - GOV.UK

203. REACT-1 round 13 interim report: acceleration of SARS-CoV-2 Delta epidemic in the community in England during late June and early July 2021 | medRxiv

204. Coronavirus infections three times lower in double vaccinated people - REACT | Imperial News | Imperial College London

205. Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey Technical Article: Impact of vaccination on testing positive in the UK - Office for National Statistics

206. BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 Vaccine Effectiveness against Death from the Delta Variant | NEJM

207. This list contains references from the main body of the evidence paper and also references retrieved from an online search (See Annex A).