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Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 11 March 2022

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

This document is part of a collection


Footnotes

1. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic

3. Using data to 7 March 2022.

4. No R value was published for the week beginning 27 December 2021 as publications were paused over the festive period. The most recent data point for R is dated 9 March 2022, reflecting the R value as at 22 February.

5. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic

6. Using data to 7 March 2022.

7. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic

8. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): infection survey

9. A credible interval gives an indication of the uncertainty of an estimate from data analysis based on a sample population. 95% credible intervals are calculated so that there is a 95% probability of the true value lying in the interval.

10. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): infection survey

11. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): infection survey

12. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data

13. UK Government: 23 February 2022 risk assessment for VUI 22JAN-01_BA.pdf

14. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic

15. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic

16. This chart shows data from early 2022, at which point the Omicron variant represents almost all cases in Scotland.

17. The reporting date is when the result of the test is authorised and released to Public Health Scotland by NHS Scotland and UK Government Regional Testing Laboratories.

18. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data

19. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data

20. The specimen date is the date the sample was collected from the patient.

21. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard

22. Before 5 January 2022, the case rate includes only positive laboratory confirmed PCR tests.

23. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard

24. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard

25. Before 5 January 2022, the case rate includes only a positive laboratory confirmed PCR tests.

26. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data

27. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data

28. Scottish Government: Omicron variant

29. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard

30. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Statistical Report

31. Ibid.

32. Results are taken from questions run on behalf of Scottish Government on the YouGov online omnibus survey. Question 'Coronavirus tests typically take two forms – Rapid 'Lateral Flow or LFD' tests (sometimes called Antigen Tests), which give a test result in 30 minutes and are usually self-administered, or PCR Tests mostly conducted at official Test Sites (but also available as a 'Home Kit) – processed by a laboratory, with results available within 48 hours. In both tests, a swab of nose and/or throat is needed. Which of the following applies to you in relation to testing for Covid-19 in the past week (i.e. since 8 February)?'

33. Question -Thinking about the last lateral flow/antigen test you did in the past week…Which of the following best describes you in relation to that test? (Base: 518 - All who have taken a Lateral Flow/antigen test in the last week)

34. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic

35. The sample is demographically and geographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with circa 1000 responses each week fieldwork is conducted. YouGov apply weighting to the data to match the population profile to adjust for any over/under representations and to maximise consistency from wave to wave. Parameters used include age, gender, social class, region and level of education.

36. The sample is demographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with circa 3000 responses over two alternating panels. This is modelled to represent the Scottish population.

37. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): Trends in Daily Data

38. ICU includes combined ICU/HDU figures and both patients with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days. Please note that only patients with length of stay 28 days or less in ICU were recorded until 20 January 2021. From 20 January 2021 ICU short and long stay includes both ICU or combined ICU/HDU with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days.

39. Before 9 February 2022, patients were only included if they had a recent positive laboratory confirmed PCR test. Hospital and ICU occupancy includes reinfections from 7 March 2022 onwards.

40. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard

41. Ibid.

42. Covid-19 related admissions have been identified as the following: A patient's first positive test for Covid-19 up to 14 days prior to admission to hospital, on the day of their admission or during their stay in hospital. If a patient's first positive test is after their date of discharge from hospital, they are not included in the analysis. An admission is defined as a period of stay in a single hospital. If the patient has been transferred to another hospital during treatment, each transfer will create a new admission record.

43. Before 9 January 2022, hospital admissions were only included if the patient had a recent positive laboratory confirmed PCR test. ICU admissions rely on PCR testing only. Hospital admissions data in the chart now includes reinfections and has been updated to include this methodology retrospectively to the start of the pandemic.

44. Public Health Scotland: PHS Covid-19 Education Report

45. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 statistical report - 2 March 2022

46. UK Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19) in the UK (accessed 9 March 2022)

47. Ibid.

48. NRS Scotland: Deaths involving coronavirus (Covid-19) in Scotland

49. NRS Scotland: Deaths involving coronavirus (Covid-19) in Scotland.

50. Ibid.

51. Deaths within 28 days of positive test.

52. UK Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19) in the UK (accessed 2 March 2022)

53. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard | Tableau Public

54. Ibid.

55. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard | Tableau Public

56. SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike IgG antibody responses after second dose of ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2 and correlates of protection in the UK general population | medRxiv

57. Ibid.

58. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): ONS Infection Survey – antibody data for Scotland – 23 February 2022

59. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard

60. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-variant-risk-assessments

61. Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: VUI-22JAN-01 (BA.2) 23 January 2022 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

62. COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 10 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

63. COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 10 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

64. University of Edinburgh: Severity of Omicron variant of concern and vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease

65. Imperial College Covid-19 response team: Report 50: Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England

66. UK Health Security Agency: SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation

67. Risk of COVID-19 related deaths for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (B.1.1.529) compared with Delta (B.1.617.2) | medRxiv

68. Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard

69. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic

70. Ibid.

Contact

Email: sgcentralanalysisdivision@gov.scot

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