Information

Coronavirus (COVID-19) state of the epidemic 10 June 2022

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

This document is part of a collection


Looking ahead

Scottish Contact Survey

Changes in patterns of mixing will likely impact on future Covid-19 prevalence. The Scottish Contact Survey measures the times and settings in which people mix where they could potentially spread Covid-19[58]. Average contacts from the most recent wave of the Scottish Contact Survey (26 May to 1 June) indicate an average of 4.9 contacts. This has remained at a similar level compared to the previous wave of the survey (12 to 18 May).

Mean contacts within the work setting have increased in the last two weeks by 14% whereas contacts within the other setting (contacts outside home, school and work) have decreased by 13%. Contacts within the home have remained at a similar level over the same period.

All age groups with the exception of those within the 50-59 age group have reported a decrease in contacts.

Modelling the Epidemic

Scottish Government medium-term projections on infections, and hospital and ICU occupancy are not included in this edition of the report, or the Modelling the Epidemic Report this week.

Long Covid-19

According to the Office for National Statistic (ONS), long Covid is defined as symptoms persisting more than four weeks after the first suspected coronavirus (Covid-19) episode that are not explained by something else.

The ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey estimated that around 1,988,000 people (95% confidence interval: 1,938,000 to 2,038,000) in the private residential population in the UK (3.07% of the respective population; 95% CI: 3.00% to 3.15%) reported experiencing long Covid of any duration over the four-week period ending 1 May 2022. In Scotland, over the same period, an estimated 155,000 people (95% CI: 142,000 to 169,000) in the private residential population (2.95% of the respective population; 95% CI: 2.69% to 3.21%) reported experiencing long Covid of any duration. This compares to:

  • 3.09% in England (95% CI: 3.01% to 3.18%),
  • 3.16% in Wales (95% CI: 2.81% to 3.51%), and
  • 2.71% in Northern Ireland (95% CI: 2.30% to 3.11%)[59].

Fortnightly modelled estimates for Scotland are also usually published in the Modelling the Epidemic report. However, a report on the rate of long Covid-19 has not been included this week.

Contact

Email: sgcentralanalysisdivision@gov.scot

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