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Coronavirus (COVID-19) state of the epidemic 10 June 2022

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

This document is part of a collection


Summary

The trend in the positivity estimates from the Covid-19 Infection Survey (CIS) for Scotland was uncertain in the most recent week to 2 June. There has been variability in Covid-19 wastewater levels since early May and the trend is uncertain in the week to 1 June. According to the CIS, the estimated percentage of people testing positive was uncertain among most ages in recent week, but there are possible signs of an increase among those aged around 30 to 40. The CIS estimates that the percentage of people testing positive for Covid-19 compatible with Omicron sub-variants BA.1, BA.4 and BA.5 increased in the most recent week to 2 June.

Covid-19 related daily hospital occupancy appears to have increased slightly in the week to 5 June, after showing a decreasing trend since the start of April 2022. The number of Covid-19 related hospital admissions have also increased slightly in the week to 3 June. However, trends in hospital admissions and occupancy data are to be interpreted with caution due to recent changes in testing policy. There were 20 deaths where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate in the week to 5 June, a further decrease from the week before.

Key Points

  • As determined through the latest weekly ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey (CIS), in Scotland, the percentage of people living in private residential households testing positive for Covid-19 was uncertain in the week ending 2 June 2022. In the latest week, the estimated percentage of people testing positive was 2.36% (95% credible interval: 1.99% to 2.75%)[2], equating to around 1 in 40 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 50 to 1 in 35).
  • In the most recent week (27 May to 2 June 2022), estimates for the percentage of people testing positive were similar for all CIS Regions in Scotland and ranged from 2.32% in CIS Region 126 (NHS Lothian) (95% credible interval: 1.90% to 2.81%) to 2.55% in CIS Region 128 (NHS Ayrshire & Arran, NHS Borders and NHS Dumfries & Galloway) (95% credible interval: 2.11% to 3.12%).
  • Omicron sub-lineage BA.2 remains dominant in the United Kingdom (UK) based on sequencing data. Some diversity is developing within this variant, and two Omicron sub-lineages BA.4 and BA.5 have been elevated to variants of concern (VOCs) due to their apparent growth advantage over Omicron BA.2.
  • The Covid-19 infection survey estimates that the percentage of people in Scotland testing positive for Covid-19 compatible with Omicron variants BA.1, BA.4 and BA.5 increased in the week 27 May to 2 June.
  • Nationwide, Covid-19 wastewater levels have remained between 50 and 100 million gene copies per person per day (Mgc/p/d) since the start of May 2022, but there is variability in the data and the trend is uncertain.
  • Please note that due to testing policy changes, reported cases will no longer be representative of all COVID-19 cases in Scotland, and caution is advised when comparing trends in cases over time. By specimen date, there were 138 weekly combined PCR and LFD cases (including reinfections) per 100,000 population in the week to 3 June. Following a period of sharply decreasing case rates since mid-March, this represents a slight increase from the previous week.
  • Over the week to 5 June, daily Covid-19 hospital occupancy slightly increased; however, this is to be interpreted with caution due to recent testing changes. NHS boards reported 637 patients in hospital or in short stay ICU on 5 June with recently confirmed Covid-19, compared to 590 on 29 May.
  • In the week to 3 June, Covid-19 admissions to hospital in Scotland appear to have increased slightly, with NHS boards reporting 425 admissions to hospital compared to 411 admissions the previous week ending 27 May. Admissions to ICU continue to fluctuate, with 12 patients admitted to ICU in the week to 5 June. These figures are to be interpreted with caution due to recent testing changes, and may be subject to revisions.
  • There was a total of 20 deaths where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate in the week to 5 June, compared to 46 in the week leading up to 29 May.
  • In the week ending 5 June, the total number of deaths registered in Scotland was 836. This was 18% below the five-year average for this week.

Method

This report brings together a wide range of publicly available figures from a range of data sources. These include publications by Scottish Government, Public Heath Scotland, National Records of Scotland and Office for National Statistics along with scientific publications and SAGE and UKHSA summaries where appropriate to summarise the state of the epidemic in Scotland in a given week. We also provide information from the Scottish Contact Survey.

Contact

Email: sgcentralanalysisdivision@gov.scot

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