Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (Issue No.96)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

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1. Please note that Public Health Scotland experienced technical issues from 12th to 13th March, meaning that no cases could be reported on these dates and were instead added to case numbers by reporting date on 14th March. Additionally, the 15th March figure covers less than a 24 hour period and is likely to be an undercount. The Scottish Government modelling used data from a range of sources, some of which were affected by these issues.

2. Covasim is a stochastic agent-based simulator for performing Covid-19 analyses. This has been modified using Scottish demographic data and contact patterns from the Scottish Contact Survey.

Covasim: An agent-based model of COVID-19 dynamics and interventions (

3. Particular care should be taken when interpreting this estimate as it is based on low numbers of cases, hospitalisations, or deaths and / or dominated by clustered outbreaks. It should not be treated as robust enough to inform policy decisions alone.

4. The cyan bars use Covid-19 test data and purple bars use multiple sources of data. The estimates produced by the Scottish Government are the two on the left. (Green uses wastewater data; yellow uses the agent-based model). The UKHSA consensus range is the right-most (red). Data to 28th March 2022. R and growth rate as of 15th March 2022.

5. Coronavirus (Covid-19): trends in daily data - (

6. Covid-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports (weeks 39 to 7, 2021 to 2022) - GOV.UK (

7. Covid-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports (weeks 39 to 7, 2021 to 2022) - GOV.UK (

8. Coronavirus (Covid-19): trends in daily data - (

9. Coronavirus (Covid-19): trends in daily data - (

10. electronic Data Research and Innovation Service: ISD Services | Electronic Data Research and Innovation Service (eDRIS) | ISD Scotland.

11. Data zones are a small area geography. They cover the whole of Scotland, and can be used to understand the population of local communities. Mid-2020 Small Area Population Estimates for 2011 Data Zones | National Records of Scotland (

12. "DZ Range" indicates the range of values of the risk factor that are observed across datazones, showing the lower 5th percentile and upper 95th percentile of the range.

Changes reflect the relative change in cases compared to the median, when each risk factor is at the two extremes of the DZ range. Data was taken from eDRIS on 28th March 2022, and analysis reflect data from 12th March to 25th March 2022. Percent second vaccine uptake defined as the proportion of individual vaccinations recorded per datazone who had received a first dose (similar definition for booster doses). Most important/significant risk factors are in bold.

13. For this graph, a wastewater Covid-19 average using the last 7 days of data is computed at every sampling date. Prevalence estimates and 95% confidence intervals from the ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey is overlaid, with a scale chosen to approximately match recent trends in WW RNA.

14. DataScienceScotland - GitHub

15. We have not been able to provide estimates for Na h-Eileanan Siar, Orkney Islands or Shetland Islands this week.

16. Advancements in detection and interpretation practices allow us to identify when outlying results are anomalous rather than indicators of spikes in Covid-19 levels. Table 2 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised WW Covid-19 levels with the outliers removed. See Technical Annex in Issue 60 of these Research Findings for further details.

17. Coverage as for week ending 29th March 2022.

18. DataScienceScotland - GitHub



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