Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 60)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

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1. Particular care should be taken when interpreting this estimate as it is based on low numbers of cases, hospitalisations, or deaths and / or dominated by clustered outbreaks. It should not be treated as robust enough to inform policy decisions alone.

2. The cyan bars use Covid‑19 test data and purple bars use multiple sources of data. The estimates produced by the Scottish Government are the two on the left. (Yellow uses confirmed cases from PHS; green uses wastewater data).The SAGE consensus range is the right‑most (red).

3. PHS reported 2 average contacts per primary case in its publication of 14th July (COVID-19 Statistical Report - 14 July 2021 - COVID-19 statistical report - Publications - Public Health Scotland). Primary contacts only include those who are tested and report to T&P whereas the SCS uses a representative sample of Scottish adult population and collects information on all direct contacts. The PHS figures for the most recent week are provisional and will be updated in next week's publication.

4. Deaths, Cases and Hospitalisations from PHS COVID-19 daily cases in Scotland dashboard.

5. Vaccination and contact data for the 0-17 age cohort is not presented due to the vast majority of this age group not being offered vaccinations and the SCS excluding contacts between children.

6. Both scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions.

7. The actual positive tests are adjusted to coincide with the estimated day of infection.

8. Actual data does not include full numbers of CPAP. ICU bed actuals include all ICU patients being treated for Covid-19 including those over 28 days.

9. Four week projections are provided here: Scientific evidence supporting the government response to coronavirus (COVID-19) - GOV.UK (

10. The exceptions to this are Argyll & Bute, Dumfries & Galloway, Moray, Na h-Eileanan Siar, Orkney Islands and Shetland Islands.

11. Numbers are included in Table 1 in the Technical Annex.

12. Anomalously high values, one in Seafield (Edinburgh) in mid-February (See Issue 40), one in Dunblane in mid-June, and two in Daldowie in January, are removed.

13. The black line and red shaded area provide a smoothed curve and confidence interval estimated from a generalised additive model based on a Tweedie distribution.

14. Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK Statistical bulletins - Office for National Statistics

15. Advancements in detection and interpretation practices allow us to identify when outlying results are anomalous rather than indicators of spikes in Covid-19 levels. Table 2 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised WW Covid-19 levels both with and without the outliers removed. See the section in the Technical Annex for further details.

16. Coverage as at the week beginning 3rd July 2021.



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