Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 32)

Published: 23 Dec 2020

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

19 page PDF

987.7 kB

19 page PDF

987.7 kB

Contents
Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 32)
Footnotes

19 page PDF

987.7 kB

Footnotes

1. Actual data does not include full numbers of CPAP or people staying longer than 28 days.

2. Based at Edinburgh University, Strathclyde University Aberdeen University and Public Health Scotland.

3. The UK POLYMOD figures from https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/s12916-020-01597-8

4. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.24.20236661v1

5. East Lothian

6. 10.5281/zenodo.4246047

7. The duration of the forecast is reduced to four weeks for this issue of the Research Findings due to uncertainty regarding the impact of the new variant.

8. Total adult ICU beds

9. The duration of the forecast is reduced to four weeks for this issue of the Research Findings due to uncertainty regarding the impact of the new variant.


Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot