Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 32)

Published: 23 Dec 2020

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

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19 page PDF

987.7 kB

Contents
Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 32)
Technical Annex

19 page PDF

987.7 kB

Technical Annex

Table 1: Probability of local authority areas having more than 50, 100, 300 or 500 cases per 100K (3 – 9 January 21). Data updated on 22 December.
LA P (Cases > 500) P (Cases > 300) P (Cases > 100) P (Cases > 50)
Aberdeen City 41% 66% 95% 99%
Aberdeenshire 6% 17% 73% 94%
Angus 0% 0% 13% 43%
Argyll and Bute 0% 0% 7% 35%
City of Edinburgh 6% 27% 95% 100%
Clackmannanshire 0% 6% 84% 98%
Dumfries and Galloway 0% 0% 3% 9%
Dundee City 0% 3% 60% 92%
East Ayrshire 2% 13% 87% 99%
East Dunbartonshire 0% 0% 19% 61%
East Lothian 44% 77% 99% 100%
East Renfrewshire 0% 2% 55% 89%
Falkirk 0% 1% 44% 89%
Fife 0% 1% 58% 94%
Glasgow City 0% 1% 68% 99%
Highland 0% 0% 7% 28%
Inverclyde 0% 2% 17% 53%
Midlothian 4% 21% 90% 99%
Moray 0% 1% 10% 26%
Na h-Eileanan Siar 0% 1% 5% 11%
North Ayrshire 13% 44% 98% 100%
North Lanarkshire 0% 1% 57% 95%
Orkney Islands 0% 0% 0% 1%
Perth and Kinross 15% 35% 85% 97%
Renfrewshire 0% 0% 28% 80%
Scottish Borders 10% 30% 85% 97%
Shetland Islands 0% 0% 0% 1%
South Ayrshire 0% 1% 34% 84%
South Lanarkshire 0% 2% 49% 91%
Stirling 0% 1% 20% 54%
West Dunbartonshire 2% 9% 50% 82%
West Lothian 0% 0% 14% 82%

Tables 2 and 3 provide the underlying data used in the section above on “What the modelling tells us about Hospital bed and ICU bed demand”. They are based on modelling undertaken by Scottish Government (for more information see research findings issue 1).

The purpose of these predictions is to support a decision on what measures are needed in different parts of Scotland. As part of the medium term modelling, these predictions are not intended as short term forecasts (less than two weeks, for which management information is more appropriate), but the initial weeks are provided for completeness.

As the middle, lower and upper ends of the range are presented for each health board, the aggregate cannot be used as a prediction of the number of beds required in Scotland as a whole.

ICU and Hospital bed capacity has been updated this week in line with the latest Health Board assumptions.

Table 2: Estimated demand for ICU beds [7]
Area Cap. (double)[8] 28/12/20 04/01/21 11/01/21 18/01/21
Ayrshire and Arran 20 12 (6-13) 13 (7-14) 14 (8-15) 14 (7-15)
Borders 10 * (0-4) * (0-4) * (0-4) * (0-5)
Dumfries and Galloway 8 * (0-4) * (0-4) * (0-4) * (0-4)
Fife 20 6 (0-8) 6 (0-8) 7 (0-8) 6 (0-8)
Forth Valley 14 8 (0-11) 9 (0-11) 9 (0-12) 9 (0-12)
Grampian 30 18 (9-19) 19 (10-21) 22 (13-22) 24 (13-25)
Greater Glasgow and Clyde 76 20 (8-25) 22 (9-27) 22 (10-26) 20 (10-22)
Highland 16 * (0-4) * (0-4) * (0-4) * (0-4)
Lanarkshire 40 20 (8-25) 22 (9-27) 22 (9-30) 21 (7-30)
Lothian 55 24 (13-25) 26 (14-27) 30 (16-33) 32 (16-37)
Orkney 0 * (0-4) * (0-4) * (0-4) * (0-4)
Shetland 0 * (0-4) * (0-4) * (0-4) * (0-4)
Tayside 22 8 (0-9) 8 (0-9) 9 (0-10) 9 (0-10)
Western Isles 4 * (0-4) * (0-4) * (0-4) * (0-4)

* indicates that the middle of the range is less than 5. Values in this table give an interval, actual occupancy could be higher or lower.

Table 3: Estimated demand for hospital beds [9]
Area Cap. 28/12/20 04/01/21 11/01/21 18/01/21
Ayrshire and Arran 169 144 (64-171) 156 (72-186) 169 (79-203) 161 (74-195)
Borders 53 33 (15-39) 36 (17-42) 43 (23-46) 45 (25-46)
Dumfries and Galloway 68 7 (0-8) 8 (0-9) 8 (0-10) 7 (0-10)
Fife 171 67 (29-81) 73 (33-88) 76 (37-89) 68 (35-76)
Forth Valley 140 53 (28-55) 58 (32-59) 61 (36-61) 56 (30-59)
Grampian 166 110 (30-166) 120 (34-180) 148 (38-231) 158 (36-254)
Greater Glasgow and Clyde 541 322 (144-383) 350 (162-417) 363 (159-455) 329 (128-436)
Highland 147 11 (0-18) 12 (0-20) 13 (0-21) 13 (0-20)
Lanarkshire 303 172 (83-194) 187 (94-211) 193 (92-230) 175 (74-221)
Lothian 415 224 (104-260) 244 (117-283) 283 (132-342) 292 (124-368)
Orkney 10 * (0-4) * (0-4) * (0-4) * (0-4)
Shetland 10 * (0-4) * (0-4) * (0-4) * (0-4)
Tayside 191 86 (45-91) 94 (51-99) 103 (57-110) 99 (54-104)
Western Isles 12 * (0-4) * (0-4) * (0-4) * (0-4)

* indicates that the middle of the range is less than 5. Values in this table give an interval, actual occupancy could be higher or lower.


Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot