Attainment Scotland Fund (ASF) Evaluation Summative report, 2026

Closing the gap

To what extent did the fund contribute to a closing of the attainment gap between the most and least socio-economically disadvantaged children and young people?

To what extent did i) overall numeracy and literacy attainment increase and ii) overall health and wellbeing improve?

To what extent was there a reduction in the attainment and health and wellbeing gap amongst pupils?

The SAC is focused on closing the attainment gap between the most and least disadvantaged children and young people. Assessing the extent the ASF has contributed to a closing of this gap has been a key area of the evaluation and therefore a focus of evidence gathering and reporting.

The National Improvement Framework and Improvement Plan (NIF) contains a ‘basket’ of 16 attainment and health and wellbeing measures which can be used to assess the extent to which ASF has contributed to a closing of the attainment gap between children and young people living in the most and least deprived areas. These are set out in the table below:

National Improvement Framework Core Attainment and Health & Wellbeing Measures

Changes were made to the key NIF Measures in 2025:

• The 27-30-month review measure has been updated to better align with the Local Government Benchmarking Framework (LGBF)
• The previous measure on children’s difficulties scores (age 13 and 15) has been replaced with a new measure based on the Scottish Health Survey: the Mean Warwick Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale (WEMWBS) score for 13–15-year-olds
• Three new attainment measures under the All SCQF measure have been added to better align those reported in the NIF and the LGBF. These look at the percentage of senior phase school leavers achieving five or more passes at SCQF Levels 4 or better, 5 or better, and 6 or better

It is important to note that drawing definitive conclusions about progress based on the NIF measures alone risks eclipsing broader and wider progress in the system, as well as not being able to fully capture the progress and achievements of all learner journeys. Evaluation evidence should be seen in the round to provide a broader and more holistic view of progress.

Local variation remains an issue with progress as highlighted in the NIF Report:

‘The improvement over this period shows local authorities collectively making progress towards their stretch aims for 2025/26. However, as in previous years, progress varies between individual local authorities.’

The NIF Measures Report reports on the key NIF measures for attainment and health and wellbeing tracking changes over the years of the Fund.

This chapter considers the trend in NIF Measures (as documented in the Interim Report) alongside the 2025 School Survey Report, findings from the Case Study Report, the SAC Leads Survey and National Stakeholder Interviews. It summarises the attainment data reported in previous publications, with updated ACEL and Senior Phase data.

Attainment

One of the key NIF measures of the poverty-related attainment gap is the Achievement of Curriculum for Excellence Levels (ACEL). At four stages during schooling (P1, P4, P7 and S3), teacher judgements are used to assess individual pupil performance in literacy and numeracy relevant to their stage. From 2016/17, ACEL data provides key insights into patterns of attainment over time.

Numeracy (ACEL)

The attainment gap in numeracy for Primary pupils was narrower than in any previous year. The gap between the proportion of primary school pupils (P1, P4 and P7 combined) from the most and least deprived areas who achieved their expected level in numeracy is narrower in 2024/25 than in 2023/24, 16.6 percentage points compared to 17.4 percentage points. The gap in numeracy has varied over the years, from 17.6 percentage points in 2016/17 to 21.4 percentage points in 2020/21, reducing again in recent years.

The attainment gap in numeracy for S3 pupils achieving third level or better has narrowed to its lowest ever level. The proportion of S3 pupils achieving third level or better in numeracy for both the least and most deprived areas has increased. It has risen by more for pupils from the most deprived areas, leading to a narrowing of the attainment gap from 12.0 percentage points in 2023/24 to 11.6 in 2024/25. This is the lowest level ever recorded.

Literacy (ACEL)

The attainment gap in literacy for both Primary and S3 pupils achieving third level or better is at its narrowest ever. The gap between the proportion of primary pupils from the most and least deprived areas who achieved their expected level in literacy narrowed from 20.2 percentage points in 2023/24 to 19.4 percentage points in 2024/25. This is narrower than in 2018/19 (20.7 percentage points) and narrower than in 2017/18 (21.6 percentage points) or 2016/17 (22.1 percentage points). The proportion of most deprived S3 pupils achieving the expected level for literacy is the highest since records began in 2016/17. Attainment among pupils in the most deprived areas has risen by more than it has for those in the least deprived areas. The attainment gap has narrowed from 12.7 percentage points in 2023/24 to 10.8 percentage points in 2024/25.

National Qualifications

This measure of school leaver attainment is based on the percentage of school leavers achieving one or more passes at SCQF Level 4, 5, 6 or better in National Qualifications (Nationals, Highers, Advanced Highers). The COVID-19 pandemic led to changes to the way in which results in these qualifications were determined and so care should be taken when comparing attainment figures for 2019/20, 2020/21, 2021/22, 2022/23 and 2023/24.

The attainment gap with one or more qualifications at SCQF Level 4 or better has widened between 2015/16 and 2024/25 from 6.1 percentage points in 2015/16 to 8.0 percentage points in 2024/25.

The attainment gap with one or more qualifications at SCQF Level 5 or better has widened over the period 2015/16 to 2024/25, from 20.3 percentage points in 2015/16 to 21.4 percentage points in 2024/25. More recently, the proportion attaining 1 pass or more in National Qualifications at this level increased for school leavers from both the most and the least deprived areas between 2023/24 and 2024/25. However it increased by more for those from the most deprived areas, which has led to the gap between the two groups narrowing more recently.

The attainment gap with one or more qualifications at SCQF Level 6 or better has narrowed between 2015/16 and 2024/25, from 38.5 percentage points to 37.7 percentage points.

All SCQF

This new measure of school leaver attainment is based on the percentage of school leavers achieving five or more passes at SCQF Levels 4, 5 and 6 for All SCQF qualifications. As well as the National Qualifications, the All SCQF measure includes qualifications awarded by Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) and qualifications and learning programmes from other providers.

The attainment gap with five or more qualifications at All SCQF Level 4 or better has widened from 17.5 percentage points in 2015/16 to 19.5 percentage points in 2024/25. At SCQF Level 4 or better, 84.3% of senior phase secondary school leavers achieved five or more passes under the ALL SCQF measure in 2024/25, an increase since 2023/24 (84.1%) but a decrease compared to 2015/16 (87.2%).

The attainment gap with five or more qualifications at All SCQF Level 5 or better has narrowed from 39.2 percentage points in 2015/16 to 33.6 percentage points in 2024/25. At SCQF Level 5 or better, 68.6% of senior phase secondary school leavers achieved five or more passes under the All SCQF measure in 2024/25, an increase from 61.0% in 2015/16.

The attainment gap with five or more qualifications at All SCQF Level 6 or better has widened from 38.9 percentage points in 2015/16 to 40.0 percentage points in 2024/25. At SCQF Level 6 or better, 40.8% of senior phase secondary school leavers achieved five or more passes under the All SCQF measure in 2024/25, compared to 33.9% in 2015/16.

This evaluation reports on the NIF measure, which is based on five or more passes at SCQF Levels 4, 5 and 6 for All SCQF qualifications. Local Authorities are currently reporting their stretch aims on the basis of one or more passes at SCQF Levels 4, 5 and 6 for All SCQF qualifications. Progress against this metric can be found here: Scottish Attainment Challenge Local Stretch Aims: 2023/24 to 2025/26 report.

Initial Positive Destinations

This measure provides information on the outcomes for young people approximately three months after the end of the academic year. Positive destination includes higher education, further education, training, employment, voluntary work and personal skills development. In 2024/25, 95.7% of all school leavers were in a positive initial destination, marginally down from 95.9% in 2022/23 but is the second highest since consistent records began in 2009/10.

The gap in the proportion of school leavers in a positive destination has generally been narrowing each year since 2015/16 and in 2024/25 was 4.7 percentage points compared with 7.9 percentage points in 2015/16.

Annual Participation Measure

The Annual Participation Measure (APM) reports on the education and employment activity of 16–19-year-olds in Scotland. The APM is measured from 1st April - 31st March annually as opposed to the academic year in the ASF Evaluation so the figures are not reported for a directly comparable time period. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data was included within the 2025 APM dataset for the first time so the trend between 2016 and 2024 is examined for comparability. The proportion of 16-19 year olds participating in education, training or employment was the highest rate to date (92.7 % in 2024). There has been a slight year on year increase with the exception of 2019.

The gap between the proportion of 16-19 year olds in the most and least deprived areas (based on SIMD quintiles) participating in education, training, and employment has steadily narrowed from 12.9 percentage points in 2016 to 8.2 percentage points in 2024. This is driven by an increase in the proportion of 16–19-year-olds from the most deprived areas participating in education, training, and employment from 83.3% in 2016 to 88.4% in 2024. Over the same period the percentage of 16–19-year-olds from the least deprived areas has remained broadly similar, going from 96.2% in 2016 to 96.6% in 2024.

Health and wellbeing

The NIF measures of the poverty-related gap in Health and Wellbeing are:

• Attendance Rates
• Percentage of children (aged 4-12 years) with a Total Strength and Difficulties Score of 14 or more (slightly raised, high or very high)
• Mean WEMWBS scores for 13–15 year-olds - Only one data point is available for Mean WEMWBS scores for 13–15 year-olds so analysis of progress over time is not available for this measure
• Percentage of children reviewed who had no concerns about any aspects of their development at their 27–30 month review

These are considered in turn below to provide a summary of the key trends.

Attendance rates

The gap in attendance rates between children living in the most and least deprived areas of Scotland has narrowed from 6.7 percentage points in 2023/24 to 6.5 percentage points in 2024/25. The percentage attendance across all sectors was 91.0% in 2024/25, which is an increase compared to 90.3% in 2023/24. Attendance improved in the least and most deprived areas but by a greater amount in the most deprived areas, leading to a narrowing of the gap.

Total difficulties score

The proportion of children aged 4-12 with a slightly raised, high or very high total difficulties score is similar between 2023 and 2024 (both 20%). However, the gap between children in the most deprived and least deprived areas has widened slightly from 15 percentage points in 2023 to 16 percentage points in 2024. Although there was an increase in the percentage of children in both the most and least deprived areas with a slightly raised high or very high total difficulties score, the increase was larger for those in the most deprived areas.

Mental wellbeing score

The Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale (WEMWBS) score is between 14 and 70 with a higher score indicating better mental wellbeing. Over 2017/18 – 2021/22 the average WEMWBS score for 13–15-year-olds was 50.8. The gap between children from the most deprived and least deprived areas was negligible (0.2) with 13–15 year-olds in the most deprived areas scoring an average of 51.2- and 13–15 year-olds in the least deprived areas scoring an average of 51.4.

27–30-month review

The 27- 30 month review is a health and development check offered to all children in Scotland at around 27 to 30 months of age. There was a small increase in the percentage of children reviewed with no developmental concerns in 2023/24 (83.3%) compared with 2022/23 (82.1%). In addition, the gap between children living in the most and least deprived areas of Scotland has narrowed from 16.7 percentage points in 2022/23 to 15.6 in 2023/24. Changes to the approach to development assessments and recording of outcomes were implemented in April 2017 and the decline in the percentage reporting ‘no concerns’ around 2017/18 is mainly due to this change. The COVID-19 pandemic also led to changes in how reviews were delivered. Trends in this measure should therefore be interpreted with caution.

Views of progress

To what extent did stakeholders – including children and young people, families and communities, and third sector organisations - think the fund contributed to improvements in attainment and/or health and wellbeing, and a reduction of the gap?

Overall, national stakeholders were positive about the contribution of ASF to improvements in attainment and health and wellbeing. Respondents to the 2025 School Survey reported improvements in health and wellbeing (75% said this had improved to a great/moderate extent, with 37% saying a great extent). Two thirds (65%) reported great/moderate improvement for literacy, and 61% for numeracy, although the proportions saying these had improved to a great extent were lower (25% and 22% respectively). The majority of respondents (62%) reported that the activities supported by the ASF had resulted in a ‘great’ or ‘moderate’ improvement in attainment in numeracy, slightly lower than 65% who reported this for literacy. Respondents based in primary schools were more likely than those in secondaries to report great/moderate improvements in numeracy (64% v 55%).

Approximately three quarters of school staff agreed that the poverty-related attainment gap has closed, at least a little, for all three aspects as a result of interventions/approaches supported by ASF (22% said the gap had closed a lot and less than 10% said that the gap had not closed at all). Headteachers and senior/middle leaders were more likely than others to say the gap had closed a little/a lot, whilst classroom teachers and support/other staff were more likely to say they did not know. Amongst headteachers, those saying the gap had closed was 85% for literacy, 84% for numeracy, and 85% for health and wellbeing. Respondents to the 2025 School Survey agreed, with nearly three quarters (74%) agreeing that the poverty-related attainment gap in numeracy has ‘closed a lot’ (12%) or ‘closed a little’ (62%). Less than one in ten (9%) felt that the gap ‘has not closed at all’.

Very few respondents reported that any of these aspects had improved not at all or not very much. Case study schools in the most deprived areas noted that since nearly all of their pupils were in the most deprived quintiles, there was no meaningful ‘gap’ to track, so they were focusing on whole-school approaches and tracking progress against a baseline, rather than closing the gap between groups of pupils specifically.

In terms of overall success of the SAC mission, all national stakeholders acknowledge at least partial success, but that less has been seen in measurable national attainment statistics or impactful changes for children and young people:

“It has helped the system but not made the meaningful change for children and young people.”

“Mission is in part successful…. And in a difficult period made real headway towards other parts of mission. We have a long way to go though – but learning all the time.”

The majority (81%) of School Survey respondents reported their school’s approach to closing the poverty-related attainment gap has included learning and teaching approaches related to numeracy and half indicated that they had been involved in professional learning related to numeracy. Primary schools and schools with a higher proportion of pupils living in deprived areas were more likely to mention professional learning in relation to learning and teaching approaches. 65% of those who had seen improved numeracy to a great extent reported taking part in numeracy-related professional learning, compared to less than half of those reporting little or no improvement doing these kinds of professional learning.

Three quarters of respondents reported that the poverty-related attainment gap has closed at least a little for health and wellbeing, with 22% saying the gap had closed a lot. The 2025 School Survey indicated a school approach focus on wellbeing and nurture (85%) and nurture based interventions/approaches (71%). At least half mentioned family support/wellbeing initiatives (54%). Secondary schools were more likely to mention family support/wellbeing initiatives (65% v 51%). There was a clear pattern in results based on levels of deprivation: respondents from schools in the most deprived areas were more likely than those in the least deprived areas to cite that their school had an approach that included family support/wellbeing (81% v 35%) and pupil wellbeing (99% v 77%). 48% of those reporting a school focus on readiness to learn to a great extent also reported improved health and wellbeing to a great extent.

Children and young people that participated in case study research highlighted the positive impacts on attainment from wellbeing initiatives that supported their learning, such as specific out of hours study support. They also felt that there were positive impacts from health and wellbeing approaches where nurture and wellbeing spaces were provided. Nurture approaches and specific wellbeing spaces were felt to support emotional regulation and general feelings of wellbeing.

The case study research respondents reported increasing levels of pupils with Additional Support Needs (ASN) and that meeting these growing needs is becoming more difficult over time and impacts on the ability to improve attainment or close the poverty-related attainment gap. This is echoed by a point raised in SAC Leads Survey 2025, with concern expressed in relation to rising levels of ASN impacting on overall attainment of cohorts which affects progress towards meeting stretch aims.

Factors supporting progress

What factors did stakeholders feel contributed positively to improvements in attainment and health and wellbeing and closing the attainment gap as a result of the fund?

The Interim Report noted that evaluation evidence has highlighted a number of factors supporting progress including:

• the importance of collaboration
• effective use of data and evidence
• high levels of understanding and an increased awareness of poverty
• strategic planning and joined up approaches
• targeted support and use of ASF

In addition to identifying factors supporting progress, a number of barriers to progress have also been identified across evidence sources to date:

• Reduction in funding allocation for former Challenge Authorities
• Concerns related to declining attendance of pupils
• Wider challenges such as ongoing impact of COVID-19 and the cost of living crisis, potentially exacerbating the challenges experienced by families experiencing poverty

Case study research also identified key factors that contribute to progress including: having funding available for staffing resource (both for delivering specific interventions, and for wider work on family and pupil engagement/support); the focus on wellbeing/nurture, readiness to learn and being able to address financial barriers/cost of the school day issues; being able to fund dedicated study support; and a range of factors regarding leadership and staff commitment.

Headteachers having control over PEF spending was also noted as being very important to meeting local needs, based on knowledge of their school community: a specific reported benefit of PEF was the flexibility to provide support based on the local context.

In some cases, schools have reported they feel they are ‘swimming against the tide’ and the ASF can only help them deal with the symptoms rather than the causes of poverty. Issues with parental engagement (often seen to be a result of parents/carers’ own school experiences and a consequent lack of trust in the education system), and schools having to meet many basic needs and act as a wider support for the community were also mentioned in this context.