Publication - Research and analysis
Waste markets study: full report
Study regarding treatment options for Scottish biodegradable municipal waste.
Appendix 5: Financial Modelling Assumptions
This appendix sets out the following financial modelling assumptions:
- Table 21: Household Baseline Gate Fee Assumptions
- Table 22: Household Post 2021 Gate Fee Assumptions
Table 23: C&I Baseline Gate Fee Assumptions
Table 24: C&I Post 2021 Gate Fee Assumptions
- Table 25: Transfer Station Cost Assumptions
Table 21: Household Baseline Gate Fee Assumptions
| 2018/19 | 2019/2020 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23- | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% |
| Landfill Gate Fee - Rural | £106.00 | £109.18 | £112.35 | £115.60 | £119.07 |
| Landfill Gate Fee - Urban | £101.00 | £104.03 | £107.05 | £110.15 | £113.46 |
| Landfill Gate Fee – Island | £94.00 | £96.82 | £99.63 | £102.52 | £105.59 |
| RDF Export (incl. processing costs of £15 per tonne 2018/19) | £100.00 | £103.00 | £105.99 | £109.06 | £112.33 |
| EfW | £103.00 | £106.09 | £109.17 | £112.33 | £115.70 |
| Haulage per Tonne mile | £000.15 | £0.15 | £0.16 | £0.16 | £0.17 |
Table 22: Household Post 2021 Gate Fee Assumptions
| Readiness Ranking | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDF Export* | 1 | £109.06 | £112.33 | £115.70 | £119.17 | £122.75 | £126.43 |
| RDF Export* | 2 | £109.06 | £112.33 | £115.70 | £119.17 | £122.75 | £126.43 |
| RDF Export* | 3 | £119.97 | £121.26 | £122.55 | £123.85 | £125.14 | £126.43 |
| RDF Export* | 4 | £119.97 | £121.26 | £122.55 | £123.85 | £125.14 | £126.43 |
| EfW in Scotland | 1 | £112.33 | £115.70 | £119.17 | £122.75 | £126.43 | £130.22 |
| EfW in Scotland | 2 | £119.97 | £123.57 | £127.27 | £131.09 | £135.02 | £139.07 |
| EfW in Scotland | 3 | £119.97 | £123.57 | £127.27 | £131.09 | £135.02 | £139.07 |
| EfW in Scotland | 4 | £119.97 | £123.57 | £127.27 | £131.09 | £135.02 | £139.07 |
| Export to England | 1 | £114.51 | £117.95 | £121.49 | £125.13 | £128.89 | £132.75 |
| Export to England | 2 | £114.51 | £117.95 | £121.49 | £125.13 | £128.89 | £132.75 |
| Export to England | 3 | £125.42 | £126.89 | £128.35 | £129.82 | £131.29 | £132.75 |
| Export to England | 4 | £125.42 | £126.89 | £128.35 | £129.82 | £131.29 | £132.75 |
| Haulage per tonne mile | Urban/ Rural | £0.16 | £0.17 | £0.17 | £0.18 | £0.18 | £0.19 |
| Haulage per tonne mile | Island | £0.31 | £0.32 | £0.33 | £0.34 | £0.35 | £0.36 |
Notes: *RDF Gate fee includes processing costs of £15 per tonne 2018/19 (increased annually with inflation).
Table 23: C&I Baseline Gate Fee Assumptions
| 2018/19 | 2019/2020 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 - | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% |
| Landfill Gate Fee | 101 | £104.03 | £107.05 | £110.15 | £113.46 |
| Haulage per Tonne | £0.15 | £0.15 | £0.16 | £0.16 | £0.17 |
Table 24: C&I Post 2021 Gate Fee Assumptions
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDF Export | £115 | £116 | £118 | £119 | £120 |
| EfW in Scotland | £105 | £109 | £112 | £116 | £120 |
| Export to England | £130 | £132 | £133 | £135 | £136 |
| Haulage per Tonne (Mainland) | £0.16 | £0.17 | £0.17 | £0.18 | £0.18 |
| Haulage per Tonne (Islands) | £0.31 | £0.32 | £0.33 | £0.34 | £0.35 |
Notes: *RDF Gate fee includes processing costs of £15 per tonne 2018/19 (increased annually with inflation).
Table 25: Transfer Station Cost Assumptions
| Capital Cost | Interest Rate | Paydown Period (Yrs) | Annualised Cost | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost for Developing Facility | £3,000,000 | 2.3% | 14 | £253,774 |
Contact
Email: eqce.cezw@gov.scot
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