Potential scale of Scottish seaweed-based industries: research paper

This report provides an assessment of the current status and future growth opportunities for Scottish seaweed-based industries. It includes a scenario analysis that explores the key areas of growth for the seaweed sector and the wider economic and social impacts of possible growth scenarios.


6 Projected future growth scenarios

6.1 Overview

6.1.1 This section describes the development of the projected future growth scenarios for the seaweed-based industry in Scotland[27]. The scenarios were developed through consideration of the growth aspirations of the sector (from consultation), key sector drivers and constraints (Section 5), and market trends and competition from comparable countries (Appendix C), which were used to develop projected future scenarios for key existing products in Scotland and those most likely to develop (described further below).

6.2 Approach

6.2.1 Two projected future scenarios were developed based primarily on the information provided during consultation, including business and wider stakeholder aspirations and how it was envisaged that the sector could grow (see Section 5):

  • Business as Usual – in which the sector continues to grow and raw material is supplied by wild harvesting of seaweed within Scotland; and
  • A higher growth scenario – in which seaweed cultivation in Scotland develops, providing additional raw material to that from wild harvested seaweed, enabling a higher growth of the component industry sub-sectors and includes the development of biorefinery technology which utilises cultivated seaweed.

6.2.2 The tonnage of raw seaweed material required to underpin the projected growth of the sector in each scenario was calculated through applying the projected sector growth rates (see Table 15) to the estimated volume of wild seaweed harvested in 2020 (8,000 tonnes) and extrapolating the volume in 2040 (see Table G1, Appendix G for the projected annual production volumes per annum to 2040).

6.2.3 It was assumed that in both scenarios, the maximum consented volume of seaweed that could be wild harvested under Crown Estate Scotland consent is 30,000 tonnes (i.e. double the maximum consented volume in 2020 for all species combined).

6.2.4 In the BAU scenario it was projected that 25,000 tonnes of raw seaweed material per annum would be required to support the projected sector growth in 2040 and it was assumed that all of the raw material would be supplied via wild harvesting.

6.2.5 In the Higher Growth scenario, it was projected that 54,000 tonnes of raw seaweed material per annum would be required to support the projected sector growth in 2040. This volume was assumed to comprise 30,000 tonnes of wild harvested seaweed (the maximum consented volume for wild harvesting; all species combined) and 24,000 tonnes of cultivated seaweed. The latter was considered sufficient to supply the biorefinery requirements in this scenario.

6.2.6 Table 9 further describes the high-level assumptions and rationale underpinning the two scenarios.

Limitations

6.2.7 Given the data gaps described in the baseline economic analysis (Section 4.3), the high levels of uncertainties around future markets and trends (including in relation to the current COVID-19 situation and the recent departure of the UK from the European Union), the constraints facing the cultivation sector (raised by the stakeholders), as well as the assumptions described in Table 9, the projected scenarios are necessarily indicative (low confidence).

Table 9 Projected scenario rationale and assumptions

Scenario

Rationale

Assumptions

Business as Usual (BAU)

The current sector (based on 2020 data and consultation) is almost entirely dependent on the wild harvesting of seaweed. The majority of companies that engaged with the study indicated an intention to expand production and develop new products, particularly high value products in response to existing and emerging markets, from wild harvested resources.

In general businesses felt that the additional wild seaweed resource for such expansion was available (including in part due to some products requiring only low volumes of seaweed to produce high value products). Furthermore, the main species harvested from the wild is Ascophyllum nodosum, an intertidal species which is not cultivated.

At the time of consultation (2020) stakeholders advised that there was no commercial scale farmed seaweed production (whilst some farmed seaweed was entering the supply chain, the tonnages were small).

The BAU scenario is therefore based on future sector growth through increased production of existing seaweed products and the development of new high value products, with raw material over the next 20 years being supplied solely by wild harvesting within Scotland.

The calculation of the projected volumes of wild harvested seaweed required between 2021 and 2040 are presented in Appendix G.

'Commercial scale' farming of seaweed is not established and no substantial tonnage of farmed seaweed enters the supply chain (for the purposes of the scenario – farmed tonnage is assumed to be zero).

Increased raw material requirements can be met through sustainable harvesting of wild stocks between 2021 and 2040.

The main species harvested by volume in 2040 will still be Ascophyllum nodosum, although a wide range of other species will also be wild harvested (See Tables 10-14).

Raw material requirements 2040: 25,000 tonnes

Raw material source 2040: All wild harvested (under consent) within Scotland (no imported raw material).

Higher Growth

There is a strong desire for the development of seaweed cultivation in Scotland and for developments in biotechnology that enable multiple high value products to be extracted from seaweed by companies based in Scotland.

The calculation of the projected volumes of wild harvested and farmed seaweed required between 2021 and 2040 are presented in Appendix G.

The constraints facing the cultivation sector are sufficiently overcome to enable substantial development of the industry.

The annual tonnage farmed is sufficient to feed into a novel biorefinery process, as well as some of the other product groups (e.g. food etc).

The main species wild harvested by volume in 2040 will still be Ascophyllum nodosum, although a wide range of other species will also be wild harvested (See Tables 10-14).

The main species cultivated by volume are Saccharina latissima, Laminaria digitata and Alaria esculenta, although there is diversification of the species that can be cultivated by 2040.

Raw material requirements 2040: 54,000 tonnes

Raw material sources 2040:

  • - 30,000 tonnes wild harvested seaweed within Scotland (consented by Crown Estate Scotland wild harvest licence);
  • - 24,000 tonnes seaweed cultivated in Scotland(consented by Marine Licence);
  • - No imported raw material.

6.2.8 The product groups that were included within the scenarios were:

  • High value food products for human consumption;
  • Animal feed;
  • Horticultural products;
  • Bioactives for the nutraceutical and cosmeceutical industries; and
  • High value products from a biorefinery approach (in the high growth scenario only; see below).

6.2.9 The product groups scoped out of the future scenario development were:

  • Biofuels – due to consensus amongst stakeholders that this is not likely to be a viable option over the next 20 years (except potentially in relation to relatively small-scale production as a component of a zero waste biorefinery approach); and
  • Hydrocolloids – no indication was given from the consultation that any businesses intended to focus solely on producing hydrocolloids in Scotland (any such products arising from biotechnology processes such as biorefining are captured under the biotechnology/innovation product category).

6.2.10 In developing the scenarios for each product group, the following factors were considered based on information from the reviews of the current Scottish and International sector baselines and stakeholder consultation:

  • The sector growth aspirations by product group;
  • Confidence in the sector's aspiration e.g. based on information provided in the interviews, for example relating to capital investments, markets (not disclosed);
  • General evidence relating to market demand (e.g. from trade analysis sources);
  • The value of the product group (based on the value of products in Cefas 2016);
  • The existence of competition for the same markets (using information from Section 3);
  • The scale of raw material (seaweed) required to meet growth aspirations and the likely availability of the raw material;
  • Processing capability and supply chain requirements in Scotland; and
  • The key constraints to the sector (product group).

6.2.11 Table 10 to Table 14 summarise the information that was considered in developing the projected scenarios for each of the product groups listed above. To protect commercial confidentiality full details underpinning some judgements have not been disclosed (particularly where the number of business in the component sector is fewer than 5, and with respect to sector aspirations and evidence underpinning confidence in growth targets). Table 15 describes the final projected growth scenarios for each product group.

Table 10 Scenario development for the food sector

Factor

Information for scenarios

Types of products and markets

Snacks, condiments; beverages; food grade powders. Range of local, UK and global markets

No. businesses identified in Scotland*

9

Scottish sector growth aspirations (confidence)

Nearly all companies consulted (n=7) projected growth (projected increased turnover ranged from 2 to 5 times in next 2-3 years) between 2020-2023** based on demand from existing markets and new markets. Most intended to expand their product range. (confidence: medium – based on information about markets)

Wider evidence of market demand

In general there has been a recent increase in demand for plant-based food products (e.g. increasing vegan trend). ValgOrize, 2019 states that the European market for seaweed food products is growing annually by an estimated 7-10%.

Product value category

Assumed speciality products (£5-1,000/ kg))

Competition from comparable countries

Yes, European seaweed producers (mainly from France and Spain) supply 25% of the market for sea vegetables in Europe. France is the major producer of dulse for this market (90% of market) and Spain the leading producer for Undaria pinnatifida (wakame). However, it was assumed that this competition would not exclude Scottish products from the market, with some products already penetrating global markets. Furthermore, this product group could potentially benefit from promotion of Scottish branding / provenance (e.g. from an environmental standards/water quality perspective), due to high profile of Scottish food and drink globally.

Raw material requirements (species; tonnages)

Current species utilised: Ascophyllum nodosum (egg wrack); Fucus vesiculosus (bladder wrack), Fucus serratus (serrated wrack); Laminaria hyperborea (cuvie); L. digitata (oarweed); Chondrus crispus (Irish moss); Palmaria palmata (dulce); Osmundea pinnatifida (pepper dulce), Saccharina latissima (sugar kelp); Alaria esculenta (dabberlocks); Porphyra (laver); Ulva linza; Ulva Lactuca; Himanthalia elongata (thong weed);

Potential species of interest/importance over the next 20 years: Gracilaria and Gelidium species; Gracilariopsis longissimi.

Median tonnage: disaggregated information not available

Raw material availability

Additional seaweed resource would be required; this would be supplied by wild harvesting and all interviewees felt that the additional resource was available. Some businesses would like to cultivate seaweed to include in their products but stated this is not currently economically viable.

Processing capability available in Scotland

Yes, most companies have their own processing capabilities (although investment for scale up an issue; see below)

Constraints to growth

Packaging costs (if want environmentally friendly packaging);

Supply chain logistics in remote locations;

Market demand (education will help generate);

Complexity of consent process and timescale of decisions (for consent for wild harvest (CES licence) and cultivation (marine licence); multiple stakeholder opinion);

Appropriate premises (size and cost) for scaling up close to shore;

Lack of finance and capital costs for scale-up.

* Note, not all businesses identified contributed to the consultation

** Business aspirations prior to COVID-19 which adds another element of uncertainty

Table 11 Scenario development for the feed sector

Factor

Information for scenarios

Types of products and markets

Dried milled seaweed; Scottish and global markets

No. businesses identified in Scotland

2

Scottish sector growth aspirations (confidence)

Assumed that there is no substantial change in market demand (low confidence).

Wider evidence of market demand

No evidence was found relating to future trends in market supply and demand for seaweed-based animal feed products, although some wider stakeholders thought this could be a high growth area in the short-term (no evidence provided). This may relate to the interest in the probiotic effects of macroalgae supplements in animal feed and its potential use in aquaculture feed (see Stanley et al. 2019). Although there is some evidence of potential benefits of including seaweed as part of animal/aquaculture feed, further research is required to better quantify these benefits as well as any potential adverse effects. The influence of cultivating seaweed (e.g. in relation to physical conditions, water quality and timing of harvest) on the chemical composition of seaweed species for inclusion in animal feed also requires further research (Stanley et al. 2019).

As such, it has been assumed that feed would continue to be a 'staple' use for seaweed (as per its current application) with demand staying constant over the timescale of the scenarios.

Product value category

Assumed low value (c. £1/kg)

Competition from comparable countries

Yes e.g. France. No information/data sourced on the number of companies involved or market share. It has been assumed that if feed/feed ingredients can be produced at a competitive price, competition from other countries will not restrict this product sector in Scotland.

Raw material requirements (species; tonnages)

Primarily Ascophyllum nodosum (egg wrack); also Fucus vesiculosus (bladder wrack)

Median tonnage: confidential

Raw material availability for growth of sector

Additional seaweed resource would be required if sector expanded; this would be supplied by wild harvesting and interviewees felt that this resource was available (although the potential for the resource to be constrained as the whole Scottish sector expands was noted)

Processing capability available in Scotland

Yes (businesses have their own processing facilities)

Constraints to growth

Clear guidance and proportionate regulation of access to wild seaweed resources, with timely determination of consent (CES licences) (multiple stakeholder opinion);

Creation of required infrastructure (for new industry)

Supply chain logistics (especially on islands);

Skilled staff recruitment;

Table 12 Scenario development for the horticulture sector

Factor

Information for scenarios

Types of products and markets

Dried milled seaweed; other (confidential); Scottish and global markets

No. businesses identified in Scotland

2

Scottish sector growth aspirations (confidence)

Intend to expand to meet demand in current and new markets (medium-high confidence; based on confidential information provided during consultation)

Wider evidence of market demand

No evidence was found relating to future trends in market supply and demand for seaweed-based horticultural products, although one other business consulted (not currently in this category) stated they may diversify into horticultural products. Some wider stakeholders thought this could be a high growth area in the short-term (no evidence provided).

Product value category

Assumed added value (£1-£5/kg) to speciality product (£1-£1000/kg)

Competition from comparable countries

Assumed yes, although no information/data sourced on the number of companies involved or market share for this product group. It has been assumed that if horticultural products can be produced at a competitive price, competition will not unduly restrict growth of this product sector in Scotland.

Raw material requirements (species; tonnages)

Primarily Ascophyllum nodosum (egg wrack);

Median tonnage: confidential

Raw material availability

Additional seaweed resource will be required with sector growth; this would be supplied by wild harvesting and interviewees felt that this resource was available (although the potential for the resource to be constrained as the whole Scottish sector expands was noted)

Processing capability available in Scotland

Yes (businesses have their own processing facilities)

Constraints to growth

Clear guidance and proportionate regulation of access to wild seaweed resources, with timely determination of consent (CES licences) (multiple stakeholder opinion);;

Creation of required infrastructure (for new industry)

Supply chain logistics (especially on islands);

Skilled staff recruitment;

Table 13 Scenario development for the bioactives sector

Factor

Information for scenarios

Types of products and markets

Ingredients (e.g. dried milled seaweed) and finished products for nutraceutical and cosmeceutical products (e.g. skin care products, health supplements); Scottish, UK and global markets.

No. businesses identified in Scotland*

7

Scottish sector growth aspirations (confidence)

All companies project growth between 2020-2023** (projected growth rates not shown as only 2 businesses provided quantitative estimates), based on demand from existing markets and new markets. Most intended to expand product range (medium - based on information about market demand).

Wider evidence of market demand

Growth of the European food supplement market, including seaweed-based nutritional supplements, has been estimated to be between 6-7% per annum up to 2025 (e.g. CBI, 2018 (not specific to seaweed).

Product value category

Assumed range from added value (up to £5/kg) to nutraceuticals and cosmeceuticals (>£2000/kg)

Competition from comparable countries

Yes e.g. France (and other countries where cultivating red seaweeds in land-based tanks e.g. Portugal). No information/data sourced on the number of companies involved or market share. It has been assumed that if the seaweed ingredients/compounds etc can be produced at a competitive price, competition from other countries will not restrict this product sector in Scotland. Scotland may be able to benefit from promoting the provenance of its seaweed (e.g. from an environmental standards/water quality perspective) in more global markets or through local provenance for domestic markets.

Raw material requirement (species; tonnages)

Ascophyllum nodosum (egg wrack); Fucus vesiculosus (bladder wrack), Fucus serratus (serrated wrack); Laminaria hyperborea (cuvie); L. digitata (oarweed); Chondrus crispus (Irish moss); Palmaria palmata (dulse); Osmundea pinnatifida (pepper dulse), Saccharina latissimi (sugar kelp); Alaria esculenta (dabberlocks); Porphyra (laver); Ulva linza; Himanthalia elongata (thong weed)

Median tonnage: disaggregated information not available

Raw material availability

Additional seaweed resource would be required; for 3 companies this would be supplied by wild harvesting: two felt this resource was available; one felt seaweed resources were generally constrained in Scotland (i.e. low standing stock compared to Norway). Two businesses looking to source 80-100% of seaweed from farms (i.e. cultivated seaweed)

Processing capability available in Scotland

Will need to invest as expand

Constraints to growth

Supply chain logistics in remote locations;

Market demand;

Clear guidance and proportionate regulation of access to wild seaweed resources, with timely determination of consent (CES licences) (multiple stakeholder opinion);

Appropriate (size and cost) premises for scaling up close to shore;

Speed of regional and government sector support (e.g. marine plan support)

* Not all businesses identified contributed to the consultation

** Business aspirations prior to COVID-19 which adds another element of uncertainty

Table 14 Scenario development for other novel/innovative products

Factor

Information for scenarios

Types of products and markets

Some specific innovative products are in development in Scotland (no detail presented due to confidentiality) for Scottish, UK and global markets.

Whilst it is not possible to know what novel and innovative products may be developed over the next 20 years, general examples may include:

  • - Using seaweed as a feedstock for biotechnology processes that extract a range of high value products;
  • - Novel applications within new industry sectors;
  • - Replacement of substances (i.e. some platform chemicals) currently derived from oil refining

No. businesses identified in Scotland

2

Scottish sector growth aspirations (confidence)

Utilisation of seaweed cultivated in Scotland to enable development of a zero-waste circular economy in which new processes enable multiple products to be extracted from seaweed, including high value/innovative products (low confidence)

Wider evidence of market demand

In general, the demand for speciality horticultural, cosmeceutical, nutraceutical and pharmaceutical/medical products extracted from seaweed will continue to increase (e.g. Stanley et al., 2019).

Product value category

Assumed added value (£1-5/kg) to special applications (>£5,000/kg)

Competition from comparable countries

Yes, likely from both European countries and Asia. In Europe it has been suggested that the future product and market focus will be on biorefinery processes and by-product valorization (EU Seaweed Strategy, 2020). For example, in France, the company Algaia is developing a biorefinery approach to develop proprietary processes and products, whilst in Indonesia there is a company focussed on producing biodegradable and edible seaweed-based food packaging (although it is not clear whether this is a commercial enterprise yet (stakeholder input)). It has been assumed that countries which have access to the high volumes of seaweed required for industrial / biorefinery processes, whether from wild harvested or cultivated sources, will have a competitive advantage. For biorefinery products such as alginate, the low-quality alginate market is dominated by China and the high-grade alginate market is dominated by one company in Norway (wider stakeholder communication).

It is assumed that the impact of this competition on Scottish businesses will relate to a range of factors such as the quality of products (including whether cultivated seaweed has the required chemical properties for the grade/quality of the intended products (see constraints)) and the ability to supply products at a competitive price and/or scale. In Scotland the latter will be influenced by the availability and cost of the raw material required for more industrial/biorefinery extraction processes.

Raw material requirements (species; tonnages)

Year-round reliable (constant) supply of suitable quality cultivated seaweed, with the appropriate biochemical properties (i.e. the same biochemical properties that wild harvested seaweed has). This will likely require diversification of the types of species that can currently be harvested to enable a continuous year-round supply of material, as well as further research into the properties of cultivated seaweed.

Raw material availability for growth of sector

Raw material availability will depend on the processes and products being produced. For example, the biorefining of seaweed to make multiple products requires volumes of cultivated seaweed that are not currently available.

Processing capability available in Scotland

If specialist processing is required, this will require development in line with requirements of the products developed.

Constraints to growth

Availability of the required volumes (tonnage) of cultivated seaweed at a price enabling economic viability or market competitiveness of the end product;

Understanding of the effects of cultivation on the biochemical properties of seaweed (i.e. whether farmed seaweed has the same properties as wild harvested seaweed);

Determinations for a marine licence to cultivate seaweed made in a timely manner (stakeholder opinion).

Social license both for the scale of seaweed supply required and for the end uses

Investment

Table 15 Descriptions of the projected growth scenarios for each product group

Product group

Business as usual

Higher growth scenario

Food

Growth of this product type is driven by increasing consumer demand relating to environmental concerns (increasing demand for plant-based food) and health trends (increasing awareness of nutritional benefits).

The raw material (seaweed) continues to be sourced from wild harvesting, utilising the current species and developing new food products.

Whilst access to finance/investment remains an issue for Scottish businesses, they continue to access new markets, and benefit from promoting the quality and provenance of Scottish seaweed as consumer awareness increases.

Growth is assumed to be 5% per year over 20 years for existing companies. One new business is developed per year until 2030, then one new entrant every other year until 2040. Each new entrant takes 5 years to reach the current average turnover, then 5% growth p.a. thereafter.

Greater access to finance/investment for scaling-up production results in a faster growth rate.

The raw material continues to be sourced from wild harvesting, although faster growth of the sector (e.g. arising from investment to expedite production scale-up, increasing market penetration) may contribute to market demand for cultivated seaweed, and enable businesses to incorporate some cultivated seaweed into products, despite higher costs compared to wild harvested seaweed.

Growth is assumed to be 10% per year over 20 years for existing companies. One business is developed per year until 2030 then one new entrant every other year until 2040. Each new entrant takes 3 years to reach the current average turnover, then 10% growth p.a. thereafter.

Animal feed

Dried milled seaweed for animal feed / feed supplement is a low value product. Projected growth rates confidential

As per the BAU scenario

Horticulture

Growth of this product type is driven by increasing demand in existing and new markets.

The raw material (seaweed) continues to be sourced from wild harvesting, utilising the current species, although new higher value more specialised products are developed. The processing capability is developed and funded by the companies involved as required.

The more specialised higher value products support high growth over the short-term (i.e. up to 2025), although it is assumed that this level of growth is not continued over the 20 year time scale due to possible ceilings on the maximum tonnage of seaweed that can be wild harvested (the main seaweed species utilised, Ascophyllum nodosum (egg wrack), cannot be cultivated). Projected growth rates confidential

As per the BAU scenario, growth of this product type is driven by increasing demand in existing and new markets and the raw material continues to be sourced from wild harvesting.

As the seaweed-based industry expands in Scotland, public acceptance of sustainably managed wild harvesting increases, enabling new entrants or expansion of the current sector in other locations around Scotland.

Projected growth rate confidential. Assumed one new business/plant is developed in other locations around Scotland every 5 years.

Bioactives

Growth of this product type is driven by increasing demand in existing and new markets.

Raw material continues to be sourced primarily from wild harvesting, due to the main species utilised not being suitable for cultivation (e.g. Ascophyllum nododusm; egg wrack) or requiring cultivation in land-based tanks with associated high energy costs (e.g. red and green seaweed species).

However, relatively low tonnages are required and in general this does not limit the growth of this product type.

New specialist high value seaweed-based products/ingredients for the nutraceutical and cosmeceutical industries are developed.

Growth is assumed to be 7% per year over 20 years for existing companies. In addition:

1 new entrant (microenterprise) is established in 2025, increasing to full turnover in 2029, then 7% growth p.a. thereafter

1 new entrant (microenterprise) in year 2030 increasing to full turnover in 2034, then 7% growth p.a. thereafter

As per the BAU scenario, except in response to market demand growth is assumed to be 10% per year over 20 years for existing companies. In addition:

1 new entrant (microenterprise) is established in 2025, increasing to full turnover in year 2029, then 10% growth p.a. thereafter

Due to growth in the sector and associated increased demand, 1 new entrant (SME) is established in 2030, increasing to full turnover in year 2034, then 10% growth p.a. thereafter;

1 new entrant (microenterprise) in 2035, increasing to full turnover in year 2039, then 10% growth p.a. thereafter.

Biotechnology

This sector is not included in the BAU scenario based on the assumption that the volume requirements for raw material (seaweed) that would be required is not available (via wild harvesting or cultivation).

This scenario assumes there are two major developments:

i) biotechnological developments enabling multiple high value products to be extracted from seaweed, for example, via a biorefinery approach;

ii) seaweed cultivation develops in parallel with the biotechnology, to enable the volume of raw material required to be supplied from seaweed farms.

Assumed that one biotechnology business is operational by 2025; projected growth rates confidential.

6.3 Economic impact under the projected growth scenarios

6.3.1 The indicative projected growth rates under the two future scenarios were then applied to the baseline turnover, GVA and employment figures presented in Section 4.3 for each product group[28]. The resulting projected turnover, GVA and employment under the BAU scenario and the higher growth scenario are shown in Figure 4 and Figure 5.

Figure 4 Business as Usual scenario

The graph shows the projected turnover under the business as usual scenario. Under this scenario, bioactives have the lowest growth rate, with food products showing a higher growth rate with a similar profile. The ‘all other’ category has the highest growth rate, which increases in the first five years and then levels off.

Figure 5 High growth scenario

: The graph shows the projected turnover under a high growth scenario. Under this scenario, bioactives have the lowest growth rate, although this starts to increase sharply after 2030. Food products have a higher growth rate with a similar profile, although the faster growth of bioactives at the end of the period mean that the growth of bioactives surpasses the food products. The ‘all other’ category has the highest growth rate, climbing steadily throughout the period.

6.3.2 Under the BAU scenario, food products have an average annual growth rate of 5.7%; Bioactive products have an average annual growth rate of 8.8%; all other products combined have an annual growth rate of 4.9% (individual growth rates confidential). Overall, the total turnover is estimated to increase by 210% over the whole period 2021-2040. Note that the average annual growth rates of each subsector over the period 2021 – 2040 differ to the assumed growth rates presented in Table 15 because of projected new entrants into the market, as described in Table 15.

6.3.3 Under the Higher Growth scenario, food products have an average annual growth rate of 10.6%; Bioactive products have an average annual growth rate of 17%, All other products combined have an annual growth rate of 11.7%. Overall, the total turnover is estimated to increase 937% over the whole period 2021–2040. As for BAU, the overall subsector growth rates differ from the annual assumptions for individual businesses and there are year-to-year differences in growth rates because of projected new entrants into the market. Note that the average annual growth rates of each subsector over the period 2021 – 2040 differ to the assumed growth rates presented in Table 15 because of projected new entrants into the market, as described in Table 15.

6.3.4 Table 16 shows the projected turnover and GVA per annum, and FTE supported in 2040 for each product group (that can be displayed) under the BAU and the Higher Growth scenarios. The figure shows that the impacts under the Higher Growth scenario are expected to be the more noticeable in the longer term, relative to the BAU scenario. Moreover, the largest impacts are expected to be in relation to All Other Products, i.e. animal food, horticulture and biorefining (biorefining only in the higher growth scenario).

Table 16 Projected turnover (£m per annum) in 2021 and 2040 under the BAU and higher growth scenarios

Product group

2021

2040

BAU

HG

BAU

HG

Food

2.0

2.1

6.0

15.6

Bioactives

0.7

0.7

3.5

16.1

All other products

2.5

2.5

6.4

22.6

Total (all products)

5.2

5.3

15.9

54.3

All other' represents animal feed and horticulture under the BAU scenario; and animal feed, horticulture and biotechnology/ innovative products under the high growth scenario

Contact

Email: nationalmarineplanning@gov.scot

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