Publication - Research and analysis

Potential scale of Scottish seaweed-based industries: research paper

Published: 22 February 2022
Directorate: Marine Directorate
Part of: Economy, Environment and climate change, Marine and fisheries
ISBN: 9781802018837

This report provides an assessment of the current status and future growth opportunities for Scottish seaweed-based industries. It includes a scenario analysis that explores the key areas of growth for the seaweed sector and the wider economic and social impacts of possible growth scenarios.

Supporting documents

G Calculation Tables

Table G1 Projected production (tonnes) of wild harvested and cultivated seaweed under the two scenarios
	2021	2025	2030	2035	2040
BAU
Wild harvesting	8,000	10,164	13,711	18,495	24,948
Cultivation	0	0	0	0	0
Higher growth
Wild harvesting	8,000	10,567	14,962	21,187	30,000
Cultivation	0	1,500	9,000	16,500	22,500

Table G2 Projected economic impact of seaweed production (wild harvesting only) under BAU scenario
BAU	2021	2025	2030	2035	2040
Turnover	£960,000	£1,219,723	£1,645,313	£2,219,401	£2,993,802
Adjustment for T - S	£28,800	£36,592	£49,359	£66,582	£89,814
Direct	£931,200	£1,183,131	£1,595,953	£2,152,819	£2,903,988
Output effect
Indirect effect	£158,304	£201,132	£271,312	£365,979	£493,678
Total	£1,089,504	£1,384,263	£1,867,265	£2,518,798	£3,397,666
Type 1 GVA
Total	£533,506	£677,844	£914,359	£1,233,400	£1,663,763
Type 2 GVA
Induced total	£597,366	£758,980	£1,023,806	£1,381,036	£1,862,912
Induced effect	£63,860	£81,136	£109,447	£147,635	£199,149
Type 1 employment effect
Effect	6,794,270	8,632,422	11,644,477	15,707,509	21,188,229
FTE	7	9	12	16	21
Type 2 employment effect
Effect	7,694,497.46	9,776,201.01	13,187,347.48	17,788,723.18	23,995,627.09
FTE	8	10	13	18	24
Induced FTE	1	1	2	2	3

Table G3 Projected economic impact of seaweed production (wild harvesting) under the higher growth scenario
Higher growth	2021	2025	2030	2035	2040
Turnover	£960,000	£1,268,002	£1,795,481	£2,542,387	£3,600,000
Adjustment for T - S	£28,800	£38,040	£53,864	£76,272	£108,000
Direct	£931,200	£1,229,962	£1,741,616	£2,466,115	£3,492,000
Output effect
Indirect effect	£158,304	£209,094	£296,075	£419,240	£593,640
Total	£1,089,504	£1,439,055	£2,037,691	£2,885,355	£4,085,640
Type 1 GVA
Total	£533,506	£704,674	£997,813	£1,412,895	£2,000,649
Type 2 GVA
Induced total	£597,366	£789,022	£1,117,249	£1,582,016	£2,240,122
Induced effect	£63,860	£84,348	£119,436	£169,121	£239,473
Type 1 employment effect
Effect	6,794,270	8,974,112	12,707,273	17,993,399	25,478,513
FTE	7	9	13	18	25
Type 2 employment effect
Effect	7,694,497	10,163,164	14,390,961	20,377,489	28,854,365
FTE	8	10	14	20	29
Induced FTE	1	1	2	2	3

Table G4 Projected economic impact of seaweed production (cultivation) under the higher growth scenario
Higher growth	2021	2025	2030	2035	2040
Turnover	£0	£180,000	£1,080,000	£1,980,000	£2,880,000
Adjustment for T - S	£0	£5,400	£32,400	£59,400	£86,400
Direct	£0	£174,600	£1,047,600	£1,920,600	£2,793,600
Output effect
Indirect effect	£0	£74,903	£449,420	£823,937	£1,198,454
Total	£0	£249,503	£1,497,020	£2,744,537	£3,992,054
Type 1 GVA
Total	£0	£100,032	£600,195	£1,100,357	£1,600,519
Type 2 GVA
Induced total	£0	£112,006	£672,037	£1,232,067	£1,792,098
Induced effect	£0	£11,974	£71,842	£131,710	£191,579
Type 1 employment effect
Effect	0	1,273,926	7,643,554	14,013,182	20,382,810
FTE	0	1	8	14	20
Type 2 employment effect
Effect	0	1,442,718	8,656,310	15,869,901	23,083,492
FTE	0	1	9	16	23
Induced FTE	0	0	1	2	3

Table G5 Projected economic impact of human food products under the BAU scenario

BAU	2021	2025	2030	2035	2040
Turnover	£1,984,500	£2,593,197	£3,520,727	£4,609,477	£5,999,028
Adjustment for T - S	£59,535	£77,796	£105,622	£138,284	£179,971
Direct	£1,924,965	£2,515,401	£3,415,105	£4,471,193	£5,819,057
Output effect
Indirect effect	£548,615	£716,889	£973,305	£1,274,290	£1,658,431
Total	£2,473,580	£3,232,290	£4,388,410	£5,745,483	£7,477,488
Type 1 GVA
Total	£1,025,805	£1,340,446	£1,819,894	£2,382,678	£3,100,948
Type 2 GVA
Induced total	£1,212,017	£1,583,773	£2,150,254	£2,815,199	£3,663,856
Induced effect	£186,212	£243,328	£330,361	£432,521	£562,907
Type 1 employment effect
Effect	18,933,409	24,740,770	33,590,004	43,977,381	57,234,592
FTE	19	25	34	44	57
Type 2 employment effect
Effect	21,558,433	28,170,957	38,247,094	50,074,630	65,169,889
FTE	22	28	38	50	65
Induced FTE	3	3	5	6	8

Table G6 Projected economic impact of human food products under the higher growth scenario
Higher growth	2021	2025	2030	2035	2040
Turnover	£2,079,000	£3,368,734	£5,817,737	£9,583,202	£15,647,520
Adjustment for T - S	£62,370	£101,062	£174,532	£287,496	£469,426
Direct	£2,016,630	£3,267,672	£5,643,205	£9,295,706	£15,178,094
Output effect
Indirect effect	£574,740	£931,287	£1,608,313	£2,649,276	£4,325,757
Total	£2,591,370	£4,198,958	£7,251,518	£11,944,982	£19,503,851
Type 1 GVA
Total	£1,074,653	£1,741,327	£3,007,238	£4,953,638	£8,088,336
Type 2 GVA
Induced total	£1,269,732	£2,057,426	£3,553,134	£5,852,860	£9,556,591
Induced effect	£195,079	£316,099	£545,896	£899,221	£1,468,255
Type 1 employment effect
Effect	19,835,000	32,139,893	55,504,959	91,429,922	149,287,423
FTE	20	32	56	91	149
Type 2 employment effect
Effect	22,585,025	36,595,932	63,200,451	104,106,234	169,985,396
FTE	23	37	63	104	170
Induced FTE	3	4	8	13	21

Table G7 Projected economic impact of bioactive products under the BAU scenario
BAU	2021	2025	2030	2035	2040
Turnover	£651,630	£871,554	£1,522,138	£2,504,215	£3,512,291
Adjustment for T - S	£19,549	£26,147	£45,664	£75,126	£105,369
Direct	£632,081	£845,407	£1,476,474	£2,429,089	£3,406,922
Output effect
Indirect effect	£47,406	£63,406	£110,736	£182,182	£255,519
Total	£679,487	£908,813	£1,587,209	£2,611,270	£3,662,441
Type 1 GVA
Total	£545,803	£730,010	£1,274,937	£2,097,521	£2,941,881
Type 2 GVA
Induced total	£635,002	£849,314	£1,483,297	£2,440,315	£3,422,667
Induced effect	£89,200	£119,304	£208,361	£342,794	£480,786
Type 1 employment effect
Effect	2,454,252	3,282,558	5,732,870	9,431,694	13,228,438
FTE	2	3	6	9	13
Type 2 employment effect
Effect	3,711,696	4,964,387	8,670,126	14,264,054	20,006,074
FTE	4	5	9	14	20
Induced FTE	1	2	3	5	7

Table G8 Projected economic impact of bioactive products under the higher growth scenario
Higher growth	2021	2025	2030	2035	2040
Turnover	£700,350	£1,242,317	£2,931,093	£7,822,939	£16,067,077
Adjustment for T - S	£21,011	£37,270	£87,933	£234,688	£482,012
Direct	£679,340	£1,205,047	£2,843,160	£7,588,251	£15,585,065
Output effect
Indirect effect	£50,950	£90,379	£213,237	£569,119	£1,168,880
Total	£730,290	£1,295,426	£3,056,397	£8,157,370	£16,753,945
Type 1 GVA
Total	£586,610	£1,040,560	£2,455,072	£6,552,464	£13,457,722
Type 2 GVA
Induced total	£682,479	£1,210,617	£2,856,300	£7,623,320	£15,657,092
Induced effect	£95,869	£170,057	£401,228	£1,070,857	£2,199,370
Type 1 employment effect
Effect	2,637,747	4,678,973	11,039,456	29,463,749	60,513,872
FTE	3	5	11	29	61
Type 2 employment effect
Effect	3,989,206	7,076,260	16,695,559	44,559,603	91,518,364
FTE	4	7	17	45	92
Induced FTE	1	2	6	15	31

Table G9 Projected economic impact of all other products under the BAU scenario
BAU	2021	2025	2030	2035	2040
Turnover	£2,450,000	£6,350,000	£6,350,000	£6,350,000	£6,350,000
Adjustment for T - S	£73,500	£190,500	£190,500	£190,500	£190,500
Direct	£2,376,500	£6,159,500	£6,159,500	£6,159,500	£6,159,500
Output effect
Indirect effect	£539,466	£1,398,207	£1,398,207	£1,398,207	£1,398,207
Total	£2,915,966	£7,557,707	£7,557,707	£7,557,707	£7,557,707
Type 1 GVA
Total	£1,455,242	£3,771,749	£3,771,749	£3,771,749	£3,771,749
Type 2 GVA
Induced total	£1,723,460	£4,466,927	£4,466,927	£4,466,927	£4,466,927
Induced effect	£268,218	£695,178	£695,178	£695,178	£695,178
Type 1 employment effect
Effect	15,109,501	39,161,359	39,161,359	39,161,359	39,161,359
FTE	15	39	39	39	39
Type 2 employment effect
Effect	18,890,569	48,961,270	48,961,270	48,961,270	48,961,270
FTE	19	49	49	49	49
Induced FTE	4	10	10	10	10

Table G10 Projected economic impact of all other products under the higher growth scenario
Higher growth	2021	2025	2030	2035	2040
Turnover	£2,450,000	£7,425,000	£11,341,750	£15,393,046	£22,555,575
Adjustment for T - S	£73,500	£222,750	£340,253	£461,791	£676,667
Direct	£2,376,500	£7,202,250	£11,001,498	£14,931,255	£21,878,908
Output effect
Indirect effect	£539,466	£1,634,911	£2,497,340	£3,389,395	£4,966,512
Total	£2,915,966	£8,837,161	£13,498,837	£18,320,649	£26,845,420
Type 1 GVA
Total	£1,455,242	£4,410,274	£6,736,730	£9,143,104	£13,397,476
Type 2 GVA
Induced total	£1,723,460	£5,223,139	£7,978,389	£10,828,285	£15,866,788
Induced effect	£268,218	£812,865	£1,241,658	£1,685,181	£2,469,312
Type 1 employment effect
Effect	15,109,501	45,791,038	69,946,197	94,931,119	139,103,462
FTE	15	46	70	95	139
Type 2 employment effect
Effect	18,890,569	57,249,989	87,449,839	118,687,099	173,913,321
FTE	19	57	87	119	174
Induced FTE	4	11	18	24	35

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