UK Covid-19 Inquiry - Module 1 report: progress update - January 2026

3. Risk assessment

Recommendation Three – A better approach to risk assessment

Chair’s recommendation:

The UK Government and devolved governments should work together on developing a new approach to risk assessment that moves away from a reliance on single reasonable worst-case scenarios towards an approach that:

• Assesses a wider range of scenarios representative of the different risks and the range of each kind of risk;
• Considers the prevention and mitigation of an emergency in addition to dealing with its consequences;
• Provides a full analysis of the ways in which the combined impacts of different risks may complicate or worsen an emergency;
• Assesses long-term risks in addition to short-term risks and considers how they may interact with each other;
• Undertakes an assessment of the impact of each risk on vulnerable people; and
• Takes into account the capacity and capabilities of the UK.

In doing so, the UK Government and devolved governments should perform risk assessments that reflect the circumstances and characteristics particular to England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and the UK as a whole.

Implementation actions and timescales set out in our January 2025 response:

• Our review and implementation of any improvements will be completed by the end of 2025.

Progress update as at January 2026:

• The Scottish Government review of how we can optimise use of the UK-wide risk assessment and improve our process for taking into account Scotland’s circumstances and characteristics has now concluded;
• Following engagement with partners across the Scottish resilience community, the Scottish Government is developing an updated approach to risk assessment to simplify Scotland’s risk landscape and ensure that risks are tailored to Scottish circumstances and characteristics; and
• The Scottish Government will create a single risk assessment document for Scotland, based on and aligned with the UK’s National Security Risk Assessment. This will eliminate confusion over the current two-document system in Scotland (where the Scottish Risk Assessment is used to supplement the UK’s National Security Risk Assessment) and bring the Scottish Government’s risk assessment processes into alignment with those of the UK, Wales, and Northern Ireland. This will facilitate more effective preparedness activities, both within the Scottish Government and in the wider responder community, and support cross-government efforts to build a more resilient Scotland.