Supporting Scotland's transition - land use and agriculture: consultation

Monitoring and evaluating

a Just Transition

Just Transition is a concept that covers many different things, bringing together social, economic and environmental actions to achieve its end goals. Monitoring and evaluating the cumulative impacts and benefits is essential to understand progress towards the Just Transition outcomes. However, it will not be straightforward and brings with it a range of challenges including:

• variable availability and quality of relevant data to measure progress across indicators and outcomes;
• difficulty in attributing changes to policy interventions;
• the challenge of defining the scope, given its wide-ranging definition.

The Just Transition Commission have advised that the first step in developing our monitoring and evaluation approach is to define a core set of indicators that we will use to track progress towards the strategic outcomes. Therefore, the LAJTP will seek to set out the indicators that will allow us to, firstly, judge progress towards our long-term outcomes and vision and, secondly, track progress towards the early objectives.

Indicators to measure progress of the longer-term outcomes

We appreciate the difficulty of identifying suitable indicators to allow us to do this before we have an agreed set of clear objectives and outcomes. However, to help move this work forward, we have provided examples in the tables below to encourage discussion and to find out your views around these two areas of monitoring and evaluation. Please be clear, these are just suggestions and we would welcome your feedback on how they could be improved and where new indicators might be needed.

Outcome Indicators

Jobs, skills and economy

• Scotland’s food production sector is productive and sustainable. Changes have been well managed, and it continues to play a big part towards Scotland’s economy and reputation across the world.
• Land use and agriculture is open and accessible to all, and more local employment has benefited rural Scotland.
• Barriers to the rural economy, including affordable accommodation, transport, digital infrastructure, and skills have been addressed.
• Land use, agriculture and related areas provide good green sustainable jobs and people have access to training, knowledge and advice, allowing them and our natural environment to prosper.
• Scotland’s sustainable tourism and natural capital sector is thriving, bringing investment and direct benefits to local communities.

Indicators

Total employment

Description

Total employment in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (Section A) in Scotland

Baseline

90,000 (2022)

Data Source

Business Register and Employment Survey (ONS)

Indicators

Farming gender balance and age profile

Description

The percentage of working occupiers on agricultural holdings in Scotland by gender and age group

Baseline

• Male 65%, female 35% (2023)
• Aged 45 or over 85%,
• aged under 45 15% (2023)

Data Source

Scottish Agricultural Census

Indicators

Sustainable tourism economy

Description

Total business base, employment, turnover and GVA in Sustainable Tourism in Scotland

Baseline

• 15,830 businesses (2023);
• 229,000 in employment (2022);
• £9,357m turnover (2022); and £4,803m GVA (2022)

Data Source

Scottish Government Industry Statistics

Indicators

Agriculture economy

Description

Total business base, employment, turnover and GVA in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (Section A) in Scotland

Baseline

• 17,245 businesses (2023);
• 90,000 in employment (2022);
• £2,270m turnover (2022); and £862m GVA (2022)

Data Source

Scottish Government Industry Statistics

Indicators

Agriculture in-work training

Description

Proportion of people in employment (16-64) who participated in job-related training in last 3 months for Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (Section A) in Scotland

Baseline

11.7% (2022)

Data Source

Annual Population Survey (ONS)

Indicators

Rural employment

Description

Total employment (across all sectors) in rural Scotland, using the RESAS Classification of Local Authorities

Baseline

729,000 (2022)

Data Source

Business Register and Employment Survey

Indicators

Crofting gender balance and age profile

Description

The percentage of crofters in Scotland by gender and age group

Baseline

• Male 68%, female 30%, prefer not to say 2% (2022)
• Aged 65 or over 42%, aged under 65 58% (2022)

Data Source

Economic Condition of Crofting

Indicators

The value of natural capital

Description

Total annual value of natural capital ecosystem services (e.g. recreation and tourism, health benefits, agricultural biomass, renewables etc) but excluding oil and gas provisioning

Baseline

£3,174m (2021)

Data Source

Scotland’s Natural Capital Accounts

Indicators

Value of agriculture jobs

Description

Gross Value Added per head of employment in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (Section A) in Scotland

Baseline

£51,208 (2022)

Data Source

Annual Business Survey

Indicators

Support for crofters

Description

Percentage of crofters who have received an income from grants or support schemes in the last 12 months

Baseline

43% (2022)

Data Source

Economic Condition of Crofting

Indicators

Support to transition rural jobs

Description

Percentage of workers in rural and remote Scotland who have all/some of the training and support required to transition their job

Baseline

Data due early 2025

Data Source

Scottish Climate Survey

Indicators

Diversification of farm activity

Description

Percentage of farms in Scotland that have at least one diversified activity (i.e. a non-agricultural activity that uses farm resources e.g. renting out farm buildings, micro electricity generation, wind turbines)

Baseline

59% (2022/23)

Data Source

Scottish Farm Business Income

Question 12

The draft indicators provide a good basis to measure progress towards the jobs, skills and economy outcomes. Do you:

• Strongly agree?
• Mostly agree?
• Mostly disagree?
• Strongly disagree?

Please give reasons for your answer.

Question 13

Are you aware of other data that could be used to monitor progress towards the jobs, skills and economy outcomes?

• Yes
• No

If yes, please provide additional information.

Outcome Indicators

Environment and adaptation

• There is support for people to integrate nature-based solutions into their businesses, such as increased forest, woodland and hedgerow cover, peatland restoration, nature networks, and coastal ecosystem enhancements.
• Agriculture is sustainable and regenerative and contributes to our circular economy by reducing waste and pollution.
• Natural capital and nature-based solutions projects not only help meet climate change and biodiversity targets but deliver value and opportunities for local communities.

Indicators

Woodland creation

Description

Hectares of all woodland in Scotland created each year (includes new native woodland created)

Baseline

7,800 hectares (ha) (average annual woodland creation between 2016-2020)

Data Source

Woodland Statistics (Forest Research)

Indicators

Air pollutants from agriculture

Description

Emissions of the 5 main air pollutants that are relevant to/and from Agriculture

Baseline

• Ammonia: 29.33 kt
• Nitrogen oxides: 5.53 kt
• NMVOC: 15.53 kt
• PM10: 1.78 kt
• PM25: 0.36 kt

(2021 data)

Data Source

National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory

Indicators

Peatland restoration

Description

Hectares of restored peatland in Scotland per year

Baseline

10,300 ha (2023/24). Note that c.75,000 ha has been restored since 2000, against a 2030 target of 250,000 ha

Data Source

NatureScot Peatland Action

Indicators

Food waste

Description

Tonnes of food wasted in Scotland per annum

Baseline

1.037m tonnes (2021). Note this is against a 2025 target to reduce food waste by 33% from a 2013 baseline of 1m tonnes

Data Source

Currently a standalone statistic from the Scottish Government Food Waste Reduction Plan Review

Indicators

Agriculture greenhouse gas emissions

Description

Scottish greenhouse gas emissions for the Agriculture Territorial Emissions Statistics Sector

Data Source

Scottish Government Greenhouse Gas Emissions Statistics

Question 14

The draft indicators provide a good basis to measure progress towards the environment and adaptation outcomes. Do you:

• Strongly agree?
• Mostly agree?
• Mostly disagree?
• Strongly disagree?

Please give reasons for your answer.

Question 15

Are you aware of other data that could be used to monitor progress towards the environment and adaptation outcomes?

• Yes
• No

If yes, please provide additional information.

Outcome Indicators

Communities and Place

• Rural communities are revitalised through the growth of the green economy, including in food production, nature-based solutions and increased sustainable tourism.
• Rural communities have been recognised, valued and part of the transition, and have increased levels of participation in shaping how local resources and land are used.
• Rural communities can access high quality, affordable and accessible public services and facilities that positively enhance people’s lives.
• Community-led land management, community ownership and wealth-building ensure that wealth generated by Scotland’s natural assets is retained and redirected back into local communities.
• The transition to sustainable and regenerative agriculture has benefited our farmers, crofters, land managers and wider rural communities and supported the delivery of our Good Food Nation ambitions and Local Food strategies.

Indicators

Satisfaction with public services

Description

Percentage of adults satisfied with the quality of public services delivered (local health services, local schools, public transport)

Baseline

• Remote small towns (55%),
• accessible rural (45%), remote rural (48%) (2021)

Data Source

Scottish Household Survey

Indicators

Assets in community ownership

Description

Number of assets in community ownership in rural Scotland

Baseline

• Remote small towns (25), accessible rural (143),
• remote rural (456) (2022)

Data Source

Community Ownership in Scotland (Scottish Government)

Indicators

Community participation

Description

EITHER

• Percentage of people in Scotland who would like to be involved in making decisions about how public spaces are used in their local area

OR

• Percentage of people in Scotland who have been involved in decision making about how public spaces are used in their local area in the past 12 months

Baseline

Data due 2025

Data Source

Scottish Climate Survey

Indicators

Land in community ownership

Description

Area of land in community ownership in rural Scotland

Baseline

• Remote small towns (826 Ha),
• accessible rural (2,806 Ha),
• remote rural (208,515 Ha) (2022)

Data Source

Community Ownership in Scotland (Scottish Government)

Question 16

The draft indicators provide a good basis to measure progress towards the communities and place outcomes. Do you:

• Strongly agree?
• Mostly agree?
• Mostly disagree?
• Strongly disagree?

Please give reasons for your answer.

Question 17

Are you aware of other data that could be used to monitor progress towards the communities and place outcomes?

• Yes
• No

If yes, please provide additional information.

Outcome Indicators

People and Equity

• Farmers and crofters are supported throughout the transition to net zero. They are empowered to make decisions about their future, with their wellbeing and mental health supported throughout.
• The transition to net zero supports efforts to reduce rural poverty and inequality, including inequalities associated with land ownership and governance.
• Improved health and wellbeing through access to good quality green and blue spaces and good quality, affordable, healthy, sustainably sourced food.

Indicators

Rural poverty

Description

Percentage of people in rural Scotland who are in relative poverty (below 60% of UK median income after housing costs)

Baseline

18% (2019-2022)

Data Source

Family Resources Survey

Indicators

Improved health and wellbeing

Description

Percentage of people in Scotland who have improved their a) physical health, and b) mental health as a result of spending time in local green or blue spaces

Baseline

Data due 2025

Data Source

Scottish Climate Survey

Indicators

Rural child poverty

Description

Percentage of children in rural Scotland who are in relative poverty (below 60% of UK median income after housing costs)

Baseline

18% (2019-2022)

Data Source

Family Resources Survey

Indicators

Fruit and veg consumption

Description

The proportion of adults (16+) and children (2-15) in Scotland eating five or more portions of fruit and vegetables a day

Baseline

• Adults = 22% (2021)
• Children = 21% (2022)

Data Source

Scottish Health Survey

Indicators

Food insecurity

Description

The proportion of adults in Scotland who were, at some time in the previous 12 months, worried that they would run out of food because of a lack of money or other resources

Baseline

9% (2021)

Data Source

Scottish Health Survey

Question 18

The draft indicators provide a good basis to measure progress towards the people and equity outcomes. Do you:

Strongly agree?

Mostly agree?

Mostly disagree?

Strongly disagree?

Please give reasons for your answer.

Question 19

Are you aware of other data that could be used to monitor progress towards the people and equity outcomes?

Yes

No

If yes, please provide additional information.

Objective Indicators

Measuring the progress of the short-term objectives

Throughout our engagement, stakeholders highlighted the role of both qualitative and quantitative data sets in evaluating the transition. This means using both data-based indicators and more anecdotal evidence from those within the sectors. This approach will provide a mix of firm and indicative evidence. We would welcome your feedback on this approach, and the possible indicators.

Objective: Education

We will work with Scotland’s land-based education, knowledge, and skills systems to help people learn, adapt and grow and deliver the changes needed to achieve a net zero Scotland, playing our part in ensuring people can live and work on our land for generations to come.

Examples of possible indicators

The Commission for the Land-based Learning Review referenced a range of ‘success measures’ and these could be part of an M&E framework. For example, trends in the number of school pupils who select ‘nature based’ career paths at 16. Alternatively, the number of rural businesses currently taking action to upskill or reskill their staff, (Rural Scotland Business Panel Survey), could be used.

Objective: Local Focus

We will continue to work towards ensuring Scotland’s land benefits those who live and work on it, seeking opportunities for everyone in our diverse rural communities to flourish, and to feel and be part of Scotland’s future.

Examples of possible indicators

This is very much about ‘local focus’ and could be measured by the number of residents who say there is ‘a strong sense of community in their local area’, (Scottish Household and Islands Survey’s). From a different perspective, trends in rural and island populations may be indicative of success in meeting this objective, (Population Projections for Scottish Areas).

Objective: Collaboration and innovation

We will support and work with our land-based sectors and rural communities to act collaboratively and find innovative solutions to the issues they face.

Examples of possible indicators

As a measure of collaboration, the number of people who feel ‘empowered when it comes to influencing community, regional or national organisations’, (Scottish Household and Islands Survey’s), may be helpful.

Objective: Equity, value and respect

We will work to reduce rural poverty and inequalities, as well as improve everyone’s overall health and wellbeing.

Examples of possible indicators

Whilst there are some obvious indicators for this objective, such as the cost of living in rural areas, poverty and income inequality statistics, and age and gender data, it may also be useful to refer to National Performance Framework indicators such as ‘influence over local decisions’ to measure trends in equity, value and respect.

Objective: Communication

We will work to support land use and agriculture in Scotland by making sure that any form of messaging or information we provide is clear, joined up and aimed at taking all of Scotland in the same direction.

Examples of possible indicators

Scottish Government data, such as the ‘proportion of Scottish adults viewing climate change as an immediate and urgent problem’, (Scottish Household Survey), or the ‘proportion of businesses in Scotland monitoring climate related risks’, (Business and Innovation Statistics), could indicate how well we are communicating with stakeholders.

Question 20

Using a combination of indicators and anecdotal evidence could measure progress towards the plan objectives. Do you:

• Strongly agree?
• Mostly agree?
• Mostly disagree?
• Strongly disagree?

Please give reasons for your answer.

Question 21

Are you aware of indicators or alternative evidence sources that could be used to measure progress towards the plan objectives?

• Yes
• No

If yes, please provide additional information.