Summary Statistics for Attainment and Initial Leaver Destinations, No. 5: 2023 Edition

Chapter 4: School Leaver Attainment

• 86.4 per cent of school leavers left with one pass or more at SCQF Level 5 or better in 2021/22. This is a decrease from 2020/21 (87.7 per cent).
• 61.3 per cent of school leavers left with one pass or more at SCQF Level 6 or better in 2021/22. This is a decrease from 2020/21 (66.0 per cent).
• 2.1 per cent of school leavers attained no passes at SCQF Level 3 or better in 2021/22. This is the same as in 2020/21.
• The different approaches to determining results in 2020, 2021 and 2022 should be kept in mind when considering changes in school leaver attainment between years.
• 96.3 per cent of leavers attained literacy at SCQF Level 3 or better in 2021/22.
• 95.9 per cent of leavers attained numeracy at SCQF Level 3 or better in 2021/22.

4.1 Attainment Data

Attainment data in this section accounts for National Qualifications achieved throughout all stages of a pupil's education at school. The range of qualifications included in the main measures in this publication can be found in the diagram in section 1.3.

The Scottish Credit and Qualifications Framework (SCQF) is used as the basis for reporting attainment. This publication reports the number of passes in National Qualifications at a given SCQF level or better and highest SCQF level achieved at SCQF Levels 3 to 7. SCQF levels, in ascending order, indicate the level of difficulty of a particular qualification, and allow for broad comparisons to be made between qualifications. For more information, see sections 1.3 and 7.2.2.

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic led to the cancellation of 2020 and 2021 National 5 (SCQF Level 5), Higher (SCQF Level 6) and Advanced Higher (SCQF Level 7) exams and alternative approaches were taken to determining grades. In 2022, there was a return to the use of exams. These were supported by a package of measures such as course modifications and revision support, which were designed to address the ongoing disruption to learning and teaching which young people had experienced, while maintaining standards. In addition a more generous approach to grading was adopted to help ensure fairness for learners. Pass rates for National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher were higher in 2020 and 2021 than they had been in 2019 (the last pre-pandemic year of exams). In 2022 pass rates reduced compared to 2020 and 2021, although they remained above 2019 levels.

These different approaches to awards and grading between 2020 and 2022 will have affected the attainment of many 2021/22, 2020/21 and 2019/20 school leavers presented in this report. A dashed line break in the series has therefore been placed between 2018/19 and 2019/20. This indicates that care must be taken when comparing attainment of school leavers in 2018/19 and before, with that of school leavers in 2019/20 and beyond. In addition, care should also be taken when comparing the attainment of 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 school leavers. Interpretation of changes must take full account of the different certification methods used in different years, and changes in the attainment levels in 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 should not be seen as an indication that performance has improved or worsened, without further evidence.

4.2 Attainment of School Leavers

Table 4 shows the highest SCQF level achieved by school leavers. In 2021/22, 1.5 per cent of school leavers left with one pass or more at SCQF Level 3 as their highest level, 10.0 per cent with one pass or more at SCQF Level 4 and 25.1 per cent with one pass or more at SCQF Level 5. A total of 36.7 per cent of 2021/22 school leavers therefore left with one pass or more at SCQF Levels 3 to 5 as their highest qualification. This was an increase from 2020/21, when 32.0 per cent left with one pass or more at SCQF Levels 3 to 5 as their highest qualification.

Table 4 also shows that 39.8 per cent of 2021/22 leavers left with one pass or more at SCQF Level 6 as their highest level, and 21.5 per cent left with one pass or more at SCQF Level 7.

A small proportion (2.1 per cent) of school leavers attained no passes in National Qualifications at SCQF Level 3 or better in 2021/22. This was the same proportion as in 2020/21. Some of these school leavers have attainment either in courses at SCQF Levels 1 or 2, or in courses/units not covered in these statistics (such as National Progression Awards, National Certificates and Awards). Details can be found in supplementary tables A1.4a and A1.4b.

Note 19: A dashed line break has been placed between the attainment figures for 2018/19 and 2019/20. This reflects the impact of the change to the assessment approach in 2020 and 2021 on 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 school leaver attainment. Further information can be found in sections 1.3.1, 4.1 and 7.6.

Table 5 provides information on the number of passes achieved by school leavers at each SCQF Level or better. In 2021/22, 86.4 per cent of school leavers left with one pass or more at SCQF Level 5 or better, and 61.3 per cent left with one pass or more at SCQF Level 6 or better. These proportions have both decreased from 2020/21, when 87.7 per cent of school leavers left with one pass or more at SCQF Level 5 or better, and 66.0 per cent left with one pass or more at SCQF Level 6 or better.

A time series from 2009/10 to 2021/22 is presented in Table 5 in the supplementary tables.

Note 20: A dashed line break has been placed between the attainment figures for 2018/19 and 2019/20 in the pdf. This reflects the impact of the change to the assessment approach in 2020 and 2021 on 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 school leaver attainment. Further information can be found in sections 1.3.1, 4.1 and 7.6.

4.3 Attainment by Deprivation

As outlined in section 3.3, the National Improvement Framework monitors the poverty-related attainment gap based on a basket of key measures. Three of these measures are based on school leaver attainment by deprivation, namely:

• The proportion of leavers attaining one pass or more at SCQF Level 4 or better
• The proportion of leavers attaining one pass or more at SCQF Level 5 or better
• The proportion of leavers attaining one pass or more at SCQF Level 6 or better

Chart 4 shows the proportions of school leavers from the most and least deprived areas who attained 1 pass or more at SCQF Levels 4 or better, 5 or better and 6 or better. As described in Sections 1.3.1 and 4.1, care should be taken when making comparisons between 2021/22 and earlier years. Any increase or decrease should not be interpreted as indicating improving or worsening performance without further evidence.

At SCQF Level 4 or better, the gap between the proportion of school leavers from the most deprived and least deprived areas attaining 1 pass or more was 5.8 percentage points. This is a narrowing from 6.3 percentage points in 2020/21, due to an increase in the proportion of leavers from the most deprived areas who attained a pass at this level.

Following a steady narrowing of the gap from 2009/10 (11.3 percentage points) to 2016/17 (5.9 percentage points), the gap then widened each year until 2019/20, when it was the widest it had been since 2012/13 (7.1 percentage points). In 2021/22 the gap has narrowed and is now the narrowest it has been since 2009/10.

At SCQF Level 5 or better, the gap was 19.1 percentage points in 2021/22. This is wider than in 2020/21 (18.2 percentage points). The proportion attaining 1 pass or more decreased for school leavers from both the most and the least deprived areas between 2020/21 and 2021/22. But it decreased by more for those from the most deprived areas, which has led to the gap between the two groups widening.

From 2009/10 to 2016/17 the attainment gap at SCQF Level 5 or better narrowed steadily, from 33.3 percentage points to 19.3 percentage points. From 2017/18 to 2018/19 it remained broadly stable at just over 20 percentage points, then widened to 20.8 percentage points in 2019/20 before narrowing to 18.2 percentage points (the narrowest gap on record) in 2020/21. The 2021/22 attainment gap (19.1 percentage points) is the second narrowest on record.

At SCQF Level 6 or better, the gap was 37.0 percentage points in 2021/22. This is wider than in 2020/21 (34.4 percentage points). The proportion attaining 1 pass or more decreased for school leavers from both the most and the least deprived areas between 2020/21 and 2021/22. But it decreased by more for those from the most deprived areas, which has led to the gap between the two groups widening.

Longer term, the gap has narrowed most years, starting from 45.6 percentage points in 2009/10. The gap in 2021/22 is wider than in it was 2018/19 (35.8 percentage points), but the proportion attaining one pass or more is now higher for leavers from both the most and least deprived areas.

Note 21: pp = percentage point difference between most and least deprived quintile.

Note 22: Based on the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 2009 for 2009/10 and 2010/11, SIMD 2012 for 2011/12 to 2015/16, SIMD 2016 for 2016/17 to 2019/20, and SIMD 2020 for 2020/21 and 2021/22. More information on the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation.

Note 23: A dashed line break has been placed between the attainment figures for 2018/19 and 2019/20. This reflects the impact of the change to the assessment approach in 2020 and 2021 on 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 school leaver attainment. Further information can be found in sections 1.3.1, 4.1 and 7.6.

4.4 Attainment by Pupil Characteristics

Table 6 shows school leaver attainment by pupil characteristic, such as sex and ethnicity. It shows that female pupils are continuing to outperform male pupils at SCQF Levels 4 to 6 or better, with the gap being wider at higher SCQF levels.

Asian-Chinese pupils continue to have high levels of attainment compared to other groups, with 93.6 per cent achieving one pass or more at SCQF Level 6 or better.

Pupils with a recorded Additional Support Need (ASN) are less likely to achieve SCQF Levels 4 to 6 or better than pupils without an ASN. Similarly, pupils who are declared or assessed disabled are less likely to achieve SCQF Levels 4 to 6 or better than pupils who are not. In both cases, the gap is wider at higher SCQF levels.

In 2021/22 pupils living in Accessible Rural areas and Accessible Small Towns are the most likely to achieve at SCQF Level 4 or better. Those living in Accessible Rural and Remote Rural areas are most likely to achieve at SCQF Level 5 or better. And at SCQF level 6 or better pupils living in Accessible Rural and Large Urban areas have the highest levels of attainment. Pupils living in Remote Small Towns are the least likely to achieve at SCQF levels 4 to 6 or better.

Broad patterns in attainment by pupil characteristic are typically stable year on year, although small numbers in some characteristic groups mean fluctuations do occur. Table 6 shows that a higher percentage of 2021/22 school leavers achieved one pass or more at SCQF Level 4 of better than in 2020/21, across almost all characteristic breakdowns. However in most groups a lower percentage achieved one pass or more at SCQF Levels 5 and 6 or better.

Note 24: Some categories have been grouped together due to small numbers. Some categories (typically 'Asian – Indian' and 'Asian – Chinese') contain between 100-200 leavers and due to relatively small numbers may be subject to fluctuation. Comparisons between groups should take this into account.

Note 25: The 'African/Black/Caribbean' category includes 'African', 'African – Other' and 'Caribbean or Black' categories

Note 26: 'All other categories' includes 'Other – other' and 'Other – Arab'.

Note 27: Pupils who have a Coordinated Support Plan (CSP), Individualised Educational Programme (IEP) or Child's Plan are assessed or declared disabled or have another need.

4.5 Literacy and Numeracy

Literacy and numeracy are key skills for any school leaver. Literacy is taken to be the ability to communicate by reading, writing and listening and talking. Numeracy is defined as the ability to use numbers in order to solve problems by counting, doing calculations, measuring, and understanding graphs and charts.

A range of courses are included in the literacy and numeracy measures, as set out in background note 7.2.2. These courses are selected based upon the outcomes and assessment standards for SQA's literacy and numeracy units at National 3, 4 and 5, with the key criterion being that the main purpose of the qualification or award is to improve literacy and/or numeracy skills.

When looking at achievement in literacy and numeracy, a pass in relevant units (rather than full qualifications, for example) can count as achieving literacy or numeracy at that level. With unit-based courses, a pupil who did not pass the full course, but did achieve the relevant units, would be counted as achieving literacy or numeracy at that level.

Mandatory unit assessments were removed from National 5s in 2017/18 and from Highers in 2018/19. This means that it is no longer mandatory for a pupil to complete unit assessments in order to achieve National 5 and Higher qualifications. This change is likely to have an effect on the literacy and numeracy attainment figures over time.

Table 7 shows the percentage of school leavers attaining literacy and numeracy at SCQF Levels 3 to 5 or better. At each level, more leavers attained literacy skills than numeracy skills, and this was more marked at higher SCQF levels.

At SCQF Level 3 or better, 96.3 per cent of 2021/22 school leavers attained literacy and 95.9 per cent attained numeracy. At SCQF Level 4 or better, 94.4 per cent of school leavers attained literacy and 91.3 per cent attained numeracy. At SCQF Level 5 or better, 82.0 per cent of school leavers attained literacy and 70.7 per cent attained this level in numeracy.

Note 28: As described in section 4.1 caution should be exercised if making comparisons over time because of the different approaches to certification used for some qualifications in 2020, 2021 and 2022.