State of the economy: April 2020

Footnotes

1. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020

2. https://www.visitscotland.org/binaries/content/assets/dot-org/pdf/research-papers-2/key-facts-on-tourism-in-scotland-2018-v2.pdf

3. STR, Weekly Accommodation Report, w/b 22nd March 2020

4. STR, Business on the Books Report for Edinburgh, April 2020

5. https://www.visitscotland.org/binaries/content/assets/dot-org/pdf/research-papers/covid-19-scottish-tourism-industry-survey-wave-2_-final-31-march-2020.pdf

6. OECD (31/03/2020), COVID-19: Tourism policy response.
https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/view/?ref=124_124984-7uf8nm95se&title=Covid-19_Tourism_Policy_Responses
(Accessed 10/04/2020)

7. Tourism Economics (01/04/2020), Updated European Coronavirus Impacts and the Path to Recovery.
https://www.tourismeconomics.com/press/latest-research/updated-european-coronavirus-impacts-and-the-path-to-recovery/
(Accessed 10/04/2020)

8. The report is available here. The OBR has been clear that this is just one potential scenario rather than a forecast.

9. Official economic forecasts for Scotland are undertaken by the Scottish Fiscal Commission.

10. https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/oecd-updates-g20-summit-on-outlook-for-global-economy.htm

11. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/16april2020
(based on collection between 23 March and 5 April).

12. https://fraserofallander.org/scottish-economy/scottish-business-monitor-shows-expected-fall-in-activity-and-outlook/
(based on collection between 1 - 8 April).

13. https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/coronavirusandhomeworkingintheuklabourmarket/2019

14. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/16april2020

15. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/datasets/businessimpactofcovid19surveybics

16. The claims figure is defined as the total number of claims made to Universal Credit, up to the count date. If an individual makes multiple claims, each claim is included in the headline. Claims that do not progress to the individual starting on Universal Credit (such as not passing eligibility criteria) are also included in the count.

17. IHS Markit Purchasing Managers Index:
https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Release/PressReleases

18. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/datasets/businessimpactofcovid19surveybics

19. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO

20. Data source for chart: HM Treasury Forecasts for the UK economy: a comparison of independent forecasts.
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/data-forecasts#2020

21. https://obr.uk/coronavirus-reference-scenario/

22. https://www.carnegieuktrust.org.uk/blog/wellbeing-at-the-centre-of-scotlands-progress/