Social Care Analytical Unit: Areas of Research Interest. 2026-2029

ARI key topics and associated questions

This social care ARI covers a range of themes and topics, organised as follows:

1. Understanding need, unmet need, prevention, and early intervention in social care

2. Access to care and understanding how social care is distributed across the population and the impact of access to care

3. Developing the evidence base on the socio-economic value of social care

4. Research about unpaid carers

5. Research about community-based care

6. Research about care homes and residents

7. Research about the social care workforce

8. Improving social care data

9. Cross cutting themes

The ARI themes can be considered from the perspectives of people accessing care and support, unpaid carers, the workforce, the care market, the wider system, and equalities. Each theme could be approached by considering both a population and/or a setting. These settings can include individual homes, the community, care homes, and prisons. In addition to these underpinning elements, we have also highlighted other cross-cutting issues of interest in the final theme.

We also have a general interest in learning about innovative or emerging best practice of relevance to national policy and how this learning can be applied in an adult social care policy context. Learning from other UK and international approaches to social care reform and to the future planning and delivery of care is also of interest.

1. Understanding need, unmet need, prevention, and early intervention in social care

We want to increase our understanding of adults’ need for social care support in Scotland as well as adults’ social care needs that are not currently met (unmet needs). This is a complex research area that has relevance across all areas of adult social care policy development. Robust definitions and measurement are critical to enable insights into variations and influencing factors.

Defining and measuring need and unmet need

Specific research questions include:

• How can we best define social care need and unmet social care need?
• How can we best measure social care need and unmet social care need?

Understanding the level and variation in need and unmet need

Specific research questions include:

• What is the level of social care need and unmet social care need amongst adults in Scotland, and how does it vary by demographic groups, client groups (e.g. older people, people with dementia, learning disabilities, physical and sensory disability^[2], people at the end of life), people with multimorbidity, equalities protected characteristics, and geography?
• What are the factors associated with higher than average levels of unmet social care need and how strong are their effects? (e.g. household composition, geographic location, presence of specific conditions and/ or disabilities, equalities characteristics etc.)

Understanding changing needs over time

Specific research questions include:

• How has the level of adult social care need and unmet social care need varied over time?
• How will adult social care need change into the future given population changes? These kinds of population changes could include: increasing levels of multimorbidity (including in younger adults), changes in household structures / access to a carer (e.g. single person households, older people without children), and housing supply (e.g. rented accommodation which cannot be adapted).
• How can we better understand (by geography) future demand and supply, to help plan for the delivery of social care?
• How we can fund, organise and envisage the role of adult social care to meet future population needs? What can we learn from international approaches?

Understanding prevention and early intervention in adult social care

Specific research questions include:

• How have the terms ‘prevention’ and ‘early intervention’ been defined and understood across adult social care settings?
• What approaches have been implemented to contribute to a shift from crisis care towards preventative care and early intervention?
• What cross-cutting transferrable lessons can be drawn from preventative and early intervention approaches taken across the adult social care sector?
• How can the further integration of health, community, and social care systems support tangible shifts toward prevention and early intervention in adult social care?
• How can commissioning and procurement be used to support the delivery of prevention and early intervention in adult social care?
• What are the barriers and enablers to the successful implementation of preventative and early intervention approaches in adult social care? How do these barriers vary for workforce, commissioners, and individuals receiving care?
• How might preventative and early intervention activity be measured across the sector?
• What are the equity considerations in implementing and measuring prevention and early intervention in social care?
• What impacts do prevention and early intervention have for those receiving and providing care, planning and commissioning services, and interactions with other services?

2. Access to care and understanding how social care is distributed across the population, and impact of access to care

Statutory adult social care is overseen and administered by local authorities, who provide data on this provision. However, this data is complex, and at times non-comparable or incomplete. There is also a substantial portion of the population who may access social care support outwith statutory provision, through privately funding part or all of their own care, as well as receiving support from unpaid carers. These individuals are often invisible in datasets that seek to track social care clients.

We want to increase our understanding of who accesses what kinds of social care, where, when, and how. Understanding how people are accessing social care includes understanding how social care operates as part of the wider system of health and social care and where there are opportunities to strengthen access through further integration of services. This could include for example, evidence on the application of the GIRFE (Getting It Right For Everyone) principles.

Understanding the support that people receive

Specific research questions include:

• What is the full range of adult social care support that people in Scotland currently receive, how does this vary for different groups (e.g. age, type of social care need) and how does this vary across Scotland?
• How does the social care market currently operate in Scotland in terms of the services which are commissioned and procured? What are the gaps and pressures in the social care market? What are examples of good practice models?
• How does adult social care support complement other community health support and wider services (for example housing and housing support) in meeting needs?
• How do statutory adult social care support services combine with other statutory support (including but not limited to community health services), unpaid care, and self-funded care in meeting adults’ care needs?
• What is the role of self-funding of social care and how does this compare to and interact with the publicly funded market and with unpaid care?

Effectiveness and sustainability of social care support

Specific research questions include:

• What can we learn from the research literature about sustainable social care services for example in remote rural locations, communities with population decline or areas with a rapidly ageing population?
• How effective are different social care pathways for improving service users' experiences and outcomes?
• What social care approaches and initiatives are effective in improving people’s care and outcomes and experiences?
• How can technology support the provision and receipt of social care (including personal care, but also wellbeing and social connections)?
• To what extent does the impact of social care support in enabling people to remain living independently at home vary across social, demographic and geographic factors?
• What impact do social care services have on interactions between individuals and health services, and how does this influence health and social care needs / trajectories?
• How do health and social care pathways vary for different demographic groups (age, region, need, experiences, client groups and service users)?
• How can market shaping support the effectiveness and sustainability of social care? What is the evidence of where and how this has been used in practice?

Understanding health and social care integration

Specific research questions include:

• In what ways is the delivery of integrated health and social care helping to meet people’s health and care needs, and where is further improvement needed?
• How are the boundaries and transitions between health and social care experienced by people accessing social care support, unpaid carers and health and social care services? What are the variations in outcomes and impacts?
• What kinds of models of care and support enable more timely discharge from hospital?
• What role does social care play in preventing the need for hospital admission?
• What is the role of culture as an enabler of change and integration?
• What cross-cutting lessons from the experience of delivering integrated health and social care can be applied to strengthen future policy and practice?

3. Developing the evidence base on the socio-economic value of social care

Adult social care plays a critical role in supporting the health, wellbeing, and independence of Scotland’s population, particularly among older adults and those with long-term conditions or disabilities.

As Scotland faces demographic shifts – notably an ageing population – the demand for adult social care services is expected to rise significantly. This trend presents both challenges and opportunities for the public sector, which has a vested interest in ensuring that care provision is sustainable, equitable, and economically efficient.

However, the economic value and social value of adult social care – which can help decision makers – is not fully understood, with existing datasets often being fragmented, inconsistent, or lacking in granularity. This can make it difficult to accurately quantify the full economic costs and benefits of care provision, the social value of care to service users and communities, assess the long-term value of different care models or understand the indirect economic impacts, such as on unpaid carers, workforce participation, and healthcare system pressures.

We, therefore, want to progress towards addressing these gaps in evidence base and understanding.

Specific research questions include:

• What is the economic value, both direct and indirect, of adult social care to Scotland’s national economy?
• What are the estimated economic costs of social care in Scotland, including both direct and indirect costs?
• How do the costs and benefits vary between different social care services and models of care? What are the supply and demand factors that influence this?
• How are the cost and benefits associated with adult social care expected to change over time and what are the determining factors of this change?
• How does investment in adult social care affect health service costs and outcomes?
• What are the costs and benefits associated with preventative approaches for long term conditions?
• What is the economic evidence of unpaid care and for the support for unpaid carers?
• What are the economic benefits of digital transformation in the Scotland’s adult social care sector?
• What are the savings to the health and social care systems by unpaid carers being supported to look after their own wellbeing and therefore continue caring for longer?
• In what ways and how do individual care needs and the associated costs change over time?
• How does the social care market currently operate in Scotland in terms of the services which are commissioned and procured? What are the gaps and pressures in the social care market? What are examples of good practice models?

4. Research about unpaid carers

We are interested in developing the research evidence around unpaid care givers (including young carers) and for those who receive unpaid care. The impacts of unpaid care are known to be significant, ranging from physical health and emotional wellbeing, to impacts on finances and economic activity. It is vital to understand these impacts, to feed into policy decisions and target additional support where it is most needed.

Unpaid carers provide a significant amount of support that is not currently accounted for within the social care workforce more generally. As such, quantifying the amount of people providing care, and the amount of care they provide, is vital to enable efficient and accurate workforce planning and projections moving forward.

Unpaid carers provide support which also impacts on the amount and type of formal care someone receives; therefore, unpaid care is an important factor across many of the themes found in this ARI.

There are various datasets covering the provision of care (Scottish Health Survey (SHeS)) and experiences of carers (Health and Care Experience Survey (HACE)), Carers Census), however the data landscape is not consistent and some data sources represent specific sub-groups of carers, and as such, it can be difficult to draw conclusions based on these sources on the entire caring population.

Specific research questions include:

• What kinds of support enable carers to continue caring?
• What are the health and wellbeing outcomes for unpaid carers and how does this vary with the types of caring role; caring intensity; support being in place; employment status; and benefit uptake?
• What is the relationship between unpaid carers and those they provide care to; particularly when a carer provides support to multiple people? Including whether support is typically provided within the household (i.e. children, spouse), outwith the household (i.e. parents, neighbours), or both.
• What are the costs and benefits of support for unpaid carers, particularly short break support? How do the costs of delivering such support compare to the benefits for carers (which could relate to carer wellbeing; improved outcomes for the cared-for person; carers accessing employment; and savings to the health and social care system due to maintaining caring relationships).
• How do the education and employment outcomes for young carers compare with those who have not had caring responsibilities? How has this changed over time?
• What are the employment outcomes for unpaid carers and how does this vary with the types of caring role, caring intensity, and other support being in place?

5. Research about community-based social care

Social care support is delivered in a diverse range of settings by a wide range of providers, supporting people with a variety of different needs. Increasing our understanding of the ways in which social care is delivered is of relevance to several policy areas. This theme highlights some questions about understanding the role of community support in meeting people’s care needs. However, many of the questions in the ARI themes can be applied to different care settings including care at home and in the community and can be considered alongside this theme. Specific research questions include:

• How is community-based social care defined and understood?
• How do people currently access community-based social care and how does that differ across Scotland?
• What is the impact of community-based social care in supporting people’s outcomes and how does this compare to other types of social care support?
• How do informal forms of community support interact with adult social care, and what is their impact in supporting people?

6. Research about adult care homes and residents

We are interested in developing the data and research evidence around adult care homes and care home residents. The adult care home sector in Scotland provides care for adults and older people, individuals with learning and physical disabilities, neurological conditions, mental health conditions and brain injury. Some care homes also provide intermediate care and respite services for people on a temporary basis. Across each of these groups the health and care needs of those living in adult care homes is becoming more complex and requires more specialist interventions.

Understanding the role of adult care homes and the needs of residents

Specific research questions include:

• What is the future role of care homes as part of the provision of social care and support?
• How does the care home market in Scotland currently operate and what are the opportunities and challenges for meeting current and future social care needs?
• How are the needs of care home residents changing over time and how does this reflect changing needs and access to care in the community? What implications does this have for future care home demand and service provision?
• How can care homes help to maintain / improve the quality of life for the people who live there including supporting meaningful connections? What are the barriers and enablers?
• What supports people to live well in care homes? What are the barriers and enablers? How does this vary for different groups (for example people with learning disabilities, people with dementia, younger adults).
• How do multidisciplinary teams support people to live well in care homes? What are the barriers and enablers?
• What is the role of care home collaborative/support teams in enhancing care for people living in care homes?
• How can care homes support person-led approaches for people living in care homes?
• What role do care homes have in meeting people’s health and care needs?
• How can temporary care home placements contribute to meeting care and support needs (including residential respite, reablement and intermediate care)?
• What are the differences in the needs of, and health and care outcomes for people with different pathways in and out of care homes?
• What are the challenges and opportunities for the current capital expenditure investment models for care homes for adults?
• What type of workforce and how many staff will care homes need based on the demand for places and the needs of residents? How is this projected to change over time?
• What is the public perception and attitudes towards care homes? How does this inform care planning and decision making?
• How can the experiences and outcomes for people living in care homes be measured and understood?
• What facilitates and impedes decision-making about a move to a care home?
• How much do care homes cost individuals and the state?
• How can understanding of the financial operations of the care home sector be improved?

Improving care home data

The Care Home Data Review (CHDR) was a multi-agency (Scottish Government, Public Health Scotland, and Care Inspectorate) review of the national data landscape relating to care homes for adults. The report from the first phase of the Care Home Data Review outlined a number of recommendations around ensuring a coherent and insightful suite of data collections, reducing the burden on data providers and meeting the existing and emerging needs of data users. Work on implementing the recommendations from the review is being taken forward by the Care Home Data Working Group, with representatives from across the care home sector. There are also opportunities for the research sector to help develop care home data through, for example, methodology development.

Specific research questions include:

• Who lives in a care home (including short term and respite stays)?
• How can we improve the completeness and accuracy of care home data through data linkage and better estimation techniques?
• How can the complexity of resident care needs be measured in care homes to inform skills mix, staffing levels and resources?
• How can we capture information and intelligence on the outcomes that matter for people living in care homes?

7. Research about the social care workforce

The social care sector is a major employer in Scotland and the number of people employed in adult social care has increased over the past decade. Population projections suggest that Scotland is likely to have more older people and fewer younger people in the coming years, which has implications for the future supply of, and demand for, adult social care. The social care workforce is critical to the delivery of high quality, person-centred and sustainable care in Scotland but there are significant challenges facing the sector. Specific research questions include:

• What are the evidence-based approaches to improving and supporting recruitment and retention in the adult social care workforce?
• What approaches to social care workforce development, in Scotland or elsewhere, support high quality care and job satisfaction?
• What evidence is there of using person centred approaches to support staff and improve recruitment and retention?
• How can the social care workforce be empowered and supported to enable research and improvement?
• How can the expertise of the social care workforce be used to support innovation and develop good practice?
• What is the role of technology in supporting the social care workforce and what are the barriers and enablers for workforce adoption of new technologies?
• What is the role of the social care nursing workforce within the provision of social care?
• What type of workforce and how many staff will the social care sector need based on the demand for services and the needs of service users in the short, medium and long term?

8. Improving social care data

Improving social care experience data

Understanding how people experience social care – either as people accessing or providing care and support – informs our evidence of what is working well for people, where there are challenges, and what factors influence positive and negative experiences. This evidence will guide future improvements and help us understand how existing policies, standards and outcomes are being put into practice. Survey data, qualitative research and mixed methods can all contribute to the improvement of social care experience data.

Specific research questions include:

• How do people experience the initial point of access to social care and how do they feel about how their needs were met?
• What are the key factors that influence social care experiences?
• How do experiences of accessing and providing social care vary by type of support, for different demographic groups and by geography?
• What are people’s experiences of different care pathways and transitions between services and how do these vary for different demographic groups and by geography?
• What are the experiences of people who provide unpaid care and how do these vary by demographic groups, protected characteristics, type of caring relationship, intensity of caring, and geography?
• How can the full range of social care outcomes be operationalised and measured (for example quality of life and wellbeing)? What are the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches?
• How does the staff recording of outcomes and experience data for the cared person impact on staff outcomes (for example perceptions of their role and role satisfaction)?

Improving other social care data

We are interested in research projects which can provide evidence and learning to improve qualitative and quantitative social care data and how these can be harnessed more effectively to inform social care policy making. For example: using data linkage to improve data quality / analysis, creating longitudinal datasets (including innovative longitudinal surveys with qualitative data collected from sub-samples), developing survey data and methods, improving metadata, standardisation and reuse of social care data for statistical and research purposes.

9. Cross cutting themes

In addition to the areas listed above we have a cross-cutting interest in:

• health, wellbeing and social care (e.g. dementia related research, learning disabilities related research, whole systems approaches)
• rurality and regional differences in Scotland, in terms of service and carer availability, access, and workforce issues
• research and data about frailty in social care service users
• research about loneliness in relation to social care need and support
• research on independent advocacy
• the value of the relationship between the provider/ staff/ carer and the cared for person in supporting outcomes
• climate change in relation to social care
• knowledge mobilisation in social care (i.e. how is evidence shared and spread within and across social care for maximum benefit and impact)
• methodological innovations to address evidence gaps
• innovative and emerging best practice (including technological innovations)
• intervention and evaluation evidence including evidence supporting scale up and spread

We are aware that the research areas set out above are closely linked and many overlap. Research projects that cut across identified topics are both helpful and impactful.

Furthermore, some proposed projects might also relate to areas outwith social care, for example, inequality, social security or housing. We see the benefit in such cross-cutting research and such projects can underpin and inform government policy.