Brexit and businesses: sectoral impact analysis
This Brexit readiness assessment summarises the risks to business of a no-deal Brexit and captures the views of over 80 businesses and trade associations.
Footnotes
2. 68 organisations responded to a private poll during the dynamic consultation run under Chatham House Rules.
3. Scottish Government, Scottish Parliament and Fraser of Allander Institute, to name a few, have published a number of analytical papers on the potential impact that Brexit could have on the Scottish economy.
4. The two RAG ratings in this cell for tariff and non-tariff barriers reflect different RAG ratings for the food and drinks sectors in Scotland with the red RAG for the food sector and amber for the drinks sector.
5. https://www.gov.scot/brexit/
6. The EU meat industry in a Hard Brexit Scenario, European Livestock and Meat Trades Union, November 2017, www.uecbv.eu/UECBV/documents/BrexitMeatreport12373.pdf
7. European Union Committee, Brexit: fisheries, 8th Report of Session 2016-17 - published 17 December 2016 - HL Paper 78, https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201617/ldselect/ldeucom/78/7811.htm
8. RAG = Red, Amber, Green, where Red represents significant materiality or urgency, and Green represents a low level of materiality or urgency.
9. Migrant labour in Scottish agriculture, 2018, Scottish Parliament, SPICe Briefing, https://sp-bpr-en-prod-cdnep.azureedge.net/published/2018/10/30/Migrant-labour-in-Scottish-agriculture/SB%2018-71.pdf
10. Economic Impact of Leaving the EU – Life sciences, Scottish Government.
11. https://www.gov.scot/news/information-and-advice-for-eu-citizens/.
12. Participant business were asked anonymously through an electronic voting tool to describe their organisations level of readiness for Brexit.
13. Small businesses entirely unprepared for chaotic no deal Brexit, 18 September 2018, FSB, https://www.fsb.org.uk/media-centre/press-releases/small-businesses-entirely-unprepared-for-chaotic-no-deal-brexit
14. ONS UK Business: Activity, Size and Location – 2018, Table 3, https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/activitysizeandlocation/bulletins/ukbusinessactivitysizeandlocation/2018
15. There will be occasional random checks for security purposes, and checks on hazardous cargo.
17. RAG = Red, Amber, Green, where Red represents a significant risk, and Green limited or no risk.
18. The most significant sectors in the Scottish economy not part of dynamic consultation included automotive, administrative and support activities, retail, wholesale activities and sustainable tourism.
19. Brexit: Sectoral Economic Impact Analysis, Office of the Chief Economic Advisor, Scottish Government 2018.
20. Revealed comparative advantage is a measure of the relative advantage in exports in certain sectors of an economy as evidenced by trade flows. When a country has a comparative advantage, it means that it can produce goods and services more cheaply than countries it trades with. For example, Scotland has a comparative advantage in whisky, which means it can produce this spirit more cheaply and to a better quality than competitors elsewhere.
21. For all sectors per original SG briefing, these figures are taken from statistics provided from ONS, Annual Business Survey (compiled by SG). High value manufacturing figures have been taken from Scotland by Division statistics per the SG website.
22. For all sectors per original SG briefing, these figures are taken from statistics provided by SG from the Annual Population survey.
23. Enterprise data taken from most recent growth sector briefings (updated November 2018). For all others enterprise data was taken from the ONS UK Business: Activity, Size and Location – 2018.
24. Defined as SIC 10 & 11.
25. Does not include fisheries as estimates suppressed as being unreliable due to small sample sizes.
26. Enterprise data taken from most recent growth sector briefings (updated November 2018). For all others enterprise data was taken from the ONS UK Business: Activity, Size and Location – 2018. Estimates may differ to those used by the sectors themselves as a result of different sector definitions.
27. Excludes offshore oil and gas.
28. Defined as SIC 16-18,22-25, 27-33
29. This figure is for 2016, taken from the statistics per the SG for Scotland by Division.
30. SPICe Briefing, 2018, Scottish Parliament, European Union funding in Scotland, https://sp-bpr-en-prod-cdnep.azureedge.net/published/2018/9/28/European-Union-funding-in-Scotland/SB%2018-61.pdf
31. Exports Statistics Scotland 2016 released in January 2018, https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Exports/ESSPublication
32. EY calculations using Quarterly National Accounts Scotland Quarter 1 2017 data and Exports Statistics Scotland released in January 2016
33. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS
34. Calculations using Exports Statistics Scotland released in January 2016
35. Calculations using Exports Statistics Scotland released in January 2016
36. Economic Impact of Leaving the EU – Creative Industries
37. The Scotch Whisky Association stated position on Brexit is, on balance, that the draft Withdrawal Agreement and accompanying Political Declaration on the Future UK-EU Relationship stand up well against the Scotch whisky industry's Brexit priorities. Source: SWA website: https://www.scotch-whisky.org.uk/what-we-do/brexit/
38. Continuity of EU Free Trade Agreements, October 2018, Scotch Whisky Authority
39. SASA, Scottish Seed Potato https://www.sasa.gov.uk/sites/default/files/SPCS%20Leaflet%20English%20v14.pdf
40. https://www.thescottishfarmer.co.uk/news/14822072.scottish-seed-potatoes-need-export-markets/
41. Potential post-Brexit tariff costs for EU-UK trade, Civitas, October 2016, http://madb.europa.eu/madb/euTariffs.htm?productCode=0204100010&country=NP
42. Construction Products Association, https://www.constructionproducts.org.uk/
43. The UK in aggregate is a net importer of Pork and Beef, but a net exporter of Lamb.
44. https://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/potentialpostbrexittariffcostsforeuuktrade.pdf.
45. https://www.jonesday.com/files/upload/Assessment%20Comparison%20New%20TSCA%20REACH.pdf
47. Citizen’s Summary: European Regional Development Fund Implementation in Scotland, Scottish Government, https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/corporate-report/2017/09/european-regional-development-fund-air-2015/documents/60b246cd-53ac-44b8-987b-d78ce5b0d69f/60b246cd-53ac-44b8-987b-d78ce5b0d69f/govscot:document/?inline=true/.
48. The EMFF supports a wide range of activities in addition to fishing including support to coastal communities to diversifying their economies.
51. Economic Impact of Leaving the EU – Construction, Scottish Government.
53. ONS – Births, Deaths (first, second and final estimates) and Active VAT and/or PAYE based enterprises in Countries of the United Kingdom by UK SIC 2007 Section letter. https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/changestobusiness/businessbirthsdeathsandsurvivalrates/adhocs/005208demographydataforcountriesoftheunitedkingdomanddistrictsofscotlandbyuksic2007section
55. Assessing the European Union’s contribution to the arts, media & creative industries in Scotland, Research for Creative Scotland – undertaken by Euclid – May 2017.
56. Clusters of interconnected companies benefit from being in the same location for a number of reasons including shared infrastructure, suppliers and distribution networks as well as ease of recruitment.
57. State of the energy market, Ofgem, 2018 https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/system/files/docs/2018/10/state_of_the_energy_market_report_2018.pdf
58. Scotland’s Place in Europe, Scottish Government, October 2018, https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-place-europe-way-forward/.
59. SG and SG Enterprise Agencies are already developing a Scottish position to secure future funding post-2020.
60. Quarterly Economic Indicator Q2 2018, Scottish Chambers of Commerce https://www.scottishchambers.org.uk/userfiles/files/QEI%20Report%20Q2%202018%20-%20Web%20Res.pdf
61. Scottish businesses ‘hostile to Brexit’ as two thirds expect no benefits, Scottish financial News, 30 November 2018, https://scottishfinancialnews.com/article/scottish-businesses-hostile-to-brexit-as-two-thirds-expect-no-benefits
62. The Contribution of EEA Citizens to Scotland: SG’s Response to the Migration Advisory Committee call for evidence on the role of EEA workers in the UK labour market, 2017, https://www.gov.scot/publications/contribution-eea-citizens-scotland-scottish-governments-response-migration-advisory-committee/pages/3/
63. How the food and drink industry is preparing for EU Exit, Food and drink federation, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/719762/02_HelenMunday_FDF.pdf
64. Migrant labour in Scottish agriculture, 2018, Scottish Parliament, SPICe Briefing, https://sp-bpr-en-prod-cdnep.azureedge.net/published/2018/10/30/Migrant-labour-in-Scottish-agriculture/SB%2018-71.pdf
66. EY Scotland Attractiveness Survey, 2018, EY, https://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/2018-UK-Attractiveness-Survey/%24FILE/EY-UK-Atttractiveness-Survey-2018.pdf
67. Final report: The impact of Brexit on the arts sector in Scotland, Ruthless Research, October 2018.
68. CITB Analysis, Local Construction Skills Needs for Scotland https://www.citb.co.uk/documents/research/local_construction_skills_needs_scotland_summary_july2018.pdf.
69. Jobs and Skills in Scotland, The evidence, Skills Development Scotland, November 2017 https://www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/media/43852/jobs-and-skills-in-scotland-2017-main-report.pdf, p9.
70. Scotland's Citizens Advice network will provide a new advice service to European citizens in Scotland affected by changes in the immigration rules as a result of Brexit.
71. https://www.gov.scot/news/information-and-advice-for-eu-citizens/.
72. Scottish Government. Fresh Talent: Working in Scotland Scheme: an Evidence Review https://www2.gov.scot/Publications/2008/08/15155422/1
73. ESRC Briefing Note – Attracting international students to the UK https://esrc.ukri.org/files/news-events-and-publications/evidence-briefings/attracting-international-students-to-the-uk/
74. Small businesses entirely unprepared for chaotic no deal Brexit, 18 September 2018, FSB, https://www.fsb.org.uk/media-centre/press-releases/small-businesses-entirely-unprepared-for-chaotic-no-deal-brexit
75. Businesses in Scotland, 2018, Scottish Government https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/Corporate
76. Participant business were asked anonymously through an electronic voting tool to describe their organisations level of readiness for Brexit.
77. Scottish Enterprise Prepare for Brexit toolkit https://www.scottish-enterprise.com/learning-zone/business-guides-and-webinars/components-folder/business-guides-and-webinar-listing/prepare-for-brexit-toolkit
78. Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) are products that are sold quickly and at a relatively low cost. Examples include non-durable goods such as packaged foods, beverages, toiletries, over-the-counter drugs, and other consumables.
79. Scotland’s Place in Europe, Scottish Government, October 2018, https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-place-europe-way-forward/
80. Some organisations not named for disclosure reasons, where permissions were not obtained or when audit clients.
81. HMRC Interactive tables, 2017.
82. ONS Inter Departmental Business Register, UK Business: Activity, size and location 2018.
83. Taken from statistics provided by SG from ONS, Annual Business Survey (Compiled by SG).
84. Economic Impact of Leaving the EU – Construction, Scottish Government.
85. Economic Impact of Leaving the EU – Creative industries, Scottish Government.
86. Scottish Growth Sector briefings, Scottish Government, November 2018, https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/Publications/GrowthSectors/Briefings.
87. City UK data published in the Financial Times, https://www.ft.com/content/415e30a2-cacf-11e7-ab18-7a9fb7d6163e.
88. Roll-on, roll-off ships are vessels designed to carry wheeled cargo that are driven on and off the ship on their own wheels. This is in contrast to lift-on, lift-off (LOLO) vessels, which use a crane to load and unload cargo.
89. Forth Ports, https://forthports.co.uk/services/ro-ro/
90. Taken from statistics provided by SG from ONS, Annual Business Survey (Compiled by SG)
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