Agricultural reform: environmental report - strategic environmental assessment

Chapter 3 Environmental baseline

Schedule 3 of the 2005 Act [See reference 77] requires information to be provided on:

• The relevant aspects of the current state of the environment and the likely evolution thereof without implementation of the plan or programme.
• The environmental characteristics of areas likely to be significantly affected.
• Any existing environmental problems which are relevant to the plan or programme including, in particular, those relating to any areas of a particular environmental importance, such as areas designated pursuant to Council Directives 2009/147/EC on the conservation of wild birds and Council Directive 92/43/EEC on the conservation of natural habitats and of wild flora and fauna.

For each environmental topic, baseline data has been collated to provide an understanding of the environment and key environmental risks and opportunities. The environmental baseline covers the whole of Scotland. Presenting the baseline at the national level allows the SEA to reflect on the interaction of the Agricultural Reform with wider environmental trends.

Current trends and pressures are explored further for each topic scoped into the assessment, and information drawn from a range of sources including the Scottish Government, Nature Scot, Historic Environment Scotland (HES), the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA), and Scotland’s Environment Web, amongst others. The Agricultural Reform has been assessed against this baseline to provide an indication of the type and significance of environmental effects that could arise.

SEA Guidance recognises that data gaps will exist but suggests that, where baseline information is unavailable or unsatisfactory, authorities should consider how it will affect their assessments and determine how to improve it for use in the assessment of future plans. Where there are data gaps in the baseline and forthcoming reports, these are highlighted in the text. The collection and analysis of baseline data is regarded as a continual and evolving process, given that information can change or be updated on a regular basis. Relevant baseline information has been updated during the SEA process as and when data is published.

The topic of ‘climatic factors’ typically covers both climate change mitigation and adaptation. Due to the objectives of Scottish agricultural policy, which include “the facilitation of on-farm nature restoration, climate mitigation and adaptation”, as well as the Route Map, climate mitigation and adaptation are both covered separately.

Table 4.1 identifies relevant national data sources that have been used to inform the environmental baseline.

Table 4.1: Environmental data sources

SEA topic	Relevant national data sets
Biodiversity, flora and fauna	Nature Conservation designations including Special Protected Areas (SPAs), Special Areas of Conservations (SACs), Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI), Ramsar, National Nature Reserves (NNR), Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). Habitat networks Biodiversity trend data Woodland areas/types Ecosystem health indicators Proportion of Scotland's Protected Sites in Favourable Condition
Population and human health	Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation ONS mid-year population estimates Scottish Agricultural Census
Soil	Peatland and topsoil organic carbon content Prime Agricultural Land / Land Capability for Agriculture in Scotland Scotland’s soils Scottish Government Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division (RESAS) Agriculture Maps for Scotland including livestock density, cereals area and farm types
Water	Water Quality Classification – groundwater bodies Water Quality Classification – coastal Areas of flood risk – rivers, surface water and coastal Flood maps and Flood Risk Management Strategies - information on the causes and consequences of flooding Drinking water quality Nitrate vulnerable areas
Air	Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs) Scottish Pollutant Release Inventory
Climatic factors	Scottish Pollutant Release Inventory Scottish Transport Statistics Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics
Cultural Heritage	Listed buildings, Historic Battlefields, Scheduled Monuments, Conservation Areas, Gardens and Designed Landscapes, World Heritage Sites, Historic Marine Protected Areas, SSSI’s notified for geological interests National Record of the Historic Environment
Landscape and Geodiversity	Wild Land Areas identified on the SNH 2014 Map Dark Skies Park, Geoparks, National Scenic Areas, Biosphere Reserve, National Parks, Geological Conservation Review Sites.
Material Assets	Transport and waste infrastructure: Railway stations, airports, ports and harbours, incinerators, national cycle routes, national walking and cycling network, Scotland’s Great Trails, landfill sites, railways, ferry routes, trunk roads, materials recovery facilities/recycling plants. Energy infrastructure (generation and transmission). Waste Discover Data tools (licenced / permitted waste facilities) National heat map (demand and supply) Scottish Water Strategic Asset Capacity and Development Plan Prime Agricultural Land / Land Capability for Agriculture in Scotland Scottish Agricultural Census Scottish EID Livestock Traceability Research Sheep and goats: annual inventory Less Favoured Areas in Scotland Maps

Supporting environmental baseline figures are presented in Appendix C.

Biodiversity, flora and fauna

Overview of baseline

Scotland’s rich and varied landscapes and habitats have been shaped by underlying rocks, soils and landforms, our seas and the Scottish weather. Scotland is renowned for its number of species and its complex mosaic of habitats. It is home to internationally important habitats including for example, more than 30,000 freshwater lochs and blanket bog, which covers 23% of our land area [See reference 78].

Biodiversity is commonly used as a measure of the health of an ecosystem and helps to provide the ecosystems services that are the basis of life including the regulation of air and water, soil formation, nutrient cycling, flood regulation and pollination, amongst many others [See reference 79]. Biodiversity, flora, and fauna is also closely linked with other environmental topics, particularly soil and water, which help to support an incredible diversity of life across Scotland and in its surrounding waters.

As of the first quarter of 2025, Scotland’s protected areas included 243 Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) [See reference 80], 162 Special Protection Areas (SPAs) [See reference 81], 51 Ramsar sites [See reference 82] and two Biosphere Reserves [See reference 83]. There are further national level designations including 1,422 Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs) [See reference 84], 247 Marine Protected Areas [See reference 85], and two National Parks (Loch Lomond and the Trossachs National Park and Cairngorms National Park). Scotland’s natural heritage designations are shown in Figure C.1.

The Scottish Biodiversity List [See reference 86] is a list of animals, plants and habitats that Scottish Ministers consider to be of principal importance for biodiversity conservation in Scotland. This includes 42 terrestrial habitats, 1,948 terrestrial species, 20 marine habitats and 159 marine species. By March 2025, the proportion of natural features in favourable condition on protected sites decreased 0.3% to 75.2% last year. This follows a 0.9% decrease in 2023-24, from 76.4% to 75.6%. This represents a stable trend since the current protocols were established in 2007 (-0.8% from 76.0%) [See reference 87].

Areas of biodiversity value are not only found within this network of designated sites. The recently launched Nature30 sites recognise areas that deliver positive, sustained and long term outcomes for biodiversity as a result of land management. Many undesignated areas of Scotland also contain habitats and species that have important functions and roles. For example, urban greenspace such as public and private gardens, parks, woodlands, recreational grounds, green corridors, allotments and community growing spaces can provide habitats and ecosystems which are valuable to wildlife [See reference 88]. Scotland’s’ Nature Network’ is defined as a network which connects nature-rich sites through a series of suitable habitats, habitat corridors and stepping-stones. One of the main purposes of the Nature Network is ecological connectivity to allow species to adapt to pressures such as climate change [See reference 89].

Scotland has a number of varied and ecologically complex landscapes and habitats, ranging from raised bog to native and ancient woodland, and is home to a wide range of species (see Figure C.2: Land cover).

Scotland has 90% of the high mountain habitat in the UK, which accommodates some of the best examples of near-natural habitats and wildlife in the northern and remote parts of Europe. The uplands comprise bog and rough grassland, heather moorland, bracken, fen, marsh and swamp, as well as inland rock and montane habitat [See reference 90].

The majority of upland habitat features are considered to be in favourable condition, however some, such as upland bogs have seen a reduction in the proportion of sites in favourable condition in recent years [See reference 91].

Woodlands and forests cover 1.4 million hectares or 18% of Scotland’s land area (see Figure C.3) and support a wide range of important flora and fauna diversity with most rare and threatened species in Scotland found in and around semi-natural woodland [See reference 92] [See reference 93]. Most of Scotland’s natural woodland is in poor condition due to high grazing impacts, invasive species and disease ( [See reference 94]. Overgrazing by wild deer or domestic livestock can lead to a loss of species in the ground flora and simplified woodland structure without shrubs or climbing species [See reference 95]

Wetlands, including peatlands, can be found across Scotland and are a key provider of environmental services such as carbon sequestration and water purification. Scotland’s peatlands store approximately 1,600 million tonnes of carbon. Most of the wetlands which fall within protected sites are in favourable condition, however lowland raised bogs are an exception with nearly 60% of sites in unfavourable condition [See reference 96].

Agriculture has a vital role to play in the health of terrestrial biodiversity and the services that it provides. In some cases, historical agricultural activity has created the habitat that promotes some of the unique biodiversity that is found in Scotland (e.g. machair) [See reference 97].

Evolution of baseline – Pressure, trends and key points

Biodiversity loss has been well documented over the last 50 years, and today there are a range of pressures with the potential to impact on Scotland’s wildlife and biodiversity. Key issues include climate change, changing use of sea and land, direct exploitation of organisms, invasive non-native species and pollution [See reference 98]. The total Scottish agricultural area in 2023 was 5.33 million hectares, 69 per cent of Scotland’s total land [See reference 99]. Despite progress to restore ecosystems, save species and move towards a more nature-friendly land uses, Scotland’s nature continues to decline and degrade. Species abundance has fallen by 15% since 1994 and 11% of Scotland’s 7,508 species are classified as threatened with extinction from Great Britain [See reference 100].

Scotland supports 75% of the vascular plant species found in Great Britain, and the distributions of 47% of these have declined since 1970. Species associated with arable farming have shown decline associated with changes in agricultural management (such as increased use of herbicides and artificial fertilisers and the abandonment of small-scale cropping around crofts in the northern and western areas). Species associated with acid and calcareous grassland also showed substantial decline, likely linked to conversion of these habitats to farmland and associated use of chemical fertilisers, re-seeding and a change from hay to silage production [See reference 101].

The effects of a changing climate already observed in Scotland's nature indicate some of the likely future effects. Warming has already caused earlier timing of spring events such as leaf unfolding, bird migration and egg laying. Where species adapt at different speeds this may impact on their populations. Shifts in ranges in plant and animal species have been recorded, particularly northwards, such as the comma butterfly expanding into south east and central Scotland. Movements may also occur up hillsides, and species already confined to high mountains in Scotland may be lost as conditions become unsuitable or other species replace them. Effects on biodiversity are likely to be severe with species potentially becoming extinct in Scotland as a result of their being unable to adapt to a rapidly changing environment. There will also be physical effects on habitats, including loss of saltmarsh and machair to coastal erosion, loss of salmon spawning beds to flash floods, and peat erosion from drying out of wetlands. There will be new risks from non-native species including pests and diseases [See reference 102]. Like much of the UK, Scotland is experiencing prolonged period of dry weather, with many areas of Scotland experiencing persistent vulnerability to drought which will exacerbate other pressures on biodiversity [See reference 103].

Indirect impacts may also arise through climate change adaptation and the action taken in sectors such as renewable energy (e.g. onshore and offshore wind, solar, hydropower, hydrogen etc.), agriculture, forestry, planning, water and coastal management in the face of a changing climate [See reference 104].

Agriculture is a contributing factor to the drivers of biodiversity decline. Land use intensification, modification and overgrazing can lead to a reduction of diversity, quality and connectivity of landscapes and habitats (although it is recognised that managed, low density grazing can benefit biodiversity). Across the uplands this is generally from increased grazing pressure and previously, forestry. In the lowlands, it is primarily via agricultural intensification, and more recently changes in grazing. Housing development is also a significant localised pressure in some parts of Scotland which is contributing to habitat loss and disturbance to species. Pollution from industry, agriculture and road traffic also impacts on waterways, uplands, air quality and sensitive habitats.

Across Scotland’s protected sites, the second largest negative pressure on natural features (behind invasive species) is overgrazing, representing 17.8% of negative pressures in the year 2024/25. This includes wild herbivores (deer, feral goats, rabbits) as well as farm stock [See reference 105].

Likely evolution without implementation of the plan

The Scottish Government has policies to address these challenges. The Scottish Government has developed various agri-environment schemes (AES) aimed at promoting sustainable and nature-friendly farming in Scotland. However, their effectiveness is mixed [See reference 106]. The Agricultural Reform can enhance the effectiveness of environmental policies by providing targeted support and fostering sustainable agricultural practices, ensuring comprehensive and coordinated efforts to tackle climate change, nature restoration, sustainable food production, economic resilience, and a just transition. Therefore, without the implementation of the Agricultural Reform, opportunities for more effective implementation and coordination of policy will be lost. The following risks and threats to biodiversity from the range of drivers of biodiversity loss are likely to continue to be experienced:

• Risks to species and habitats from pests, pathogens and invasive species.
• Risks to species and habitats from pollution and exploitation
• Loss of species and habitats from wildfires, water scarcity, drought and flooding from changing climatic conditions and extreme weather events.
• Shifts in species movements and loss of species unable to adapt to a rapidly changing environment.

Moreover, without Agricultural Reform’s alignment with national climate and biodiversity objectives, Scotland’s agricultural land would struggle to contribute meaningfully to nature restoration or climate resilience goals. This would undermine progress towards a just transition and the realisation of the Scottish Government’s Vision for Agriculture.

Population and human health

Overview of baseline

Population

The population of Scotland was estimated to be 5.55 million people at mid-2024. This is the highest Scotland’s population has ever been. The population of Scotland grew by 40,900 people (0.7%) in the year to mid-2024. The increase in population is mainly as a result of inward migration, particularly to Scotland’s cities [See reference 107].

The population of Scotland is aging with an estimated 20.5% aged 65 and over), which is an increase of 16.2% since 2004. The number of deaths registered in Scotland is also greater than the number of births. [See reference 108].

Projections forecast that the population will continue to rise to around 5.7 million in mid-2032 and continue to rise to 5.8 million by 2047. Scotland’s population is projected to age with the number of people aged 75 and over projected to grow by nearly a third by mid-2047. The number of children is projected to fall over the same period. More people are projected to move to Scotland than leave each year. However, there are projected to be more deaths than births each year, and the gap between births and deaths is projected to widen. Over time, this will outweigh the growth from migration [See reference 109].

Approximately 91% of Scotland’s people live in urban areas, which accounts for just 2.3% of Scotland’s land surface [See reference 110]. Most of the population and industry is concentrated in highly urbanised areas in the Central Belt and on the east coast, and primarily in four key city regions (Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh, and Glasgow) and several smaller cities and towns (e.g. Ayr, Inverness, Perth and Stirling). There is significant variation between areas such as the Highlands and Islands and some areas in the Southern Uplands versus the more densely populated areas. Around 12.4% of the population live in small towns of less than 10,000 people; of these, around 70% are located within a 30-minute drive of large urban settlements, with the other 30% located more remotely [See reference 111].

The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation [See reference 112] ranks small areas (data zones) in Scotland from the most deprived to the least deprived (as shown in Figure C.4). It analyses data from several indicators across the domains of income, employment, health, education, skills and training, housing, geographic access and crime. Key findings from the 2020 Index show that 14 areas have been consistently among the 5% most deprived in Scotland since the 2004 Index of Multiple Deprivation. Of these, nine were in Glasgow City with the remainder located in Inverclyde, Renfrewshire, Highland, North Lanarkshire and North Ayrshire. Six council areas now have a larger share of the 20% most deprived data zones in Scotland compared to 2016, with the largest increases observed in Aberdeen City, North Lanarkshire, Moray, East Lothian, Highland and North Ayrshire [See reference 113].

In terms of Scotland’s agricultural workforce, the June 2024 Agricultural Census [See reference 114] reported a modest rise in the agricultural workforce in Scotland. The total number of people working on agricultural holdings increased by 0.5% compared to the five-year average, reaching 67,400 in 2024. This slight growth suggests some resilience in the sector’s labour force, despite broader changes in livestock and land use (see ‘Soils’ and ‘Material assets’ sections). The majority of Scotland’s agricultural workforce are owner-occupiers, made up of people who own or rent the farm and work on it.

Human health

Human health is dependent on a number of environmental factors including access to services such as health and education, employment, good quality outdoor recreation facilities. A high-quality environment with good air, soil and water quality is an important contributor to good health and well-being. Homes also need adequate heating and ventilation. Climate change poses a wide range of potential effects on human health. Direct impacts may include overheating or dampness within properties or the impacts of flooding, severe weather events or wildfire. Some effects may be beneficial such as milder winters positively affecting health and cold related service disruptions.

It is expected that the potential risks and benefits of climate change to population and health will be unevenly distributed. For example, areas of dense urban development will be more at risk of surface water flooding and summer heat stress. Remote coastal communities may be more vulnerable to disruption to services from extreme weather events. In addition, the effects may have the greatest impact on vulnerable people. Negative health effects are likely to be disproportionately severe in areas of high deprivation because of the reduced ability of individuals and communities in these areas to prepare, respond and recover. The elderly population are also less resilient to climate change and associated weather events.

Fuel poverty is also linked to health issues. In 2023, approximately 34% of households are currently living in fuel poverty and 19.4% of households are living in extreme fuel poverty [See reference 115]. The statutory targets set by the Fuel Poverty Act 2019 are that by the end of 2040, as far as reasonably possible no household in Scotland is in fuel poverty and, in any event no more than 5% of households will be in fuel poverty and no more than 1% of households will be in extreme fuel poverty [See reference 116].

Greenspace has substantial environmental and health impacts, but also links to positive community aspects, such as community cohesion, social connectedness and community resilience. Being able to access high quality greenspace can improve the health, wellbeing and confidence of people and communities as well as creating a sense of place. 65.4% of adults lived within a 5-minute walk of their nearest greenspace in 2016, compared to 67.2% in 2015 [See reference 117]. People living in the most deprived areas are less likely to live within a 5-minute walk of their nearest greenspace than those in less deprived areas.

Key findings from the 2022 Scottish Health Survey report [See reference 118] found that 70% of people described their general health as ‘very good’ or ‘good’ which has decreased since 2021 (75%). In 2022, the mean Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale (WEMWBS) score for all adults was 47.0, a decrease from the mean of 48.6 recorded in 2021 and outside the range observed prior to 2021 (49.4– 50.0). In 2022, no significant difference was recorded between men (47.7) and women (46.5). In 2022, two-thirds of adults were overweight (67%), with men showing higher prevalence of being overweight than women. In 2022, 65% of adults undertook at least 150 minutes of moderate physical activity, 75 minutes vigorous physical activity, or an equivalent combination per week. This is within the range of 62-66% recorded between 2012 and 2019, but lower than the proportion recorded in 2021 (69%). Adults in the most deprived areas were more likely to have very low activity levels (57%) than those in the least deprived areas (73%).

Scotland has achieved progressively cleaner air in recent years via increasingly strict control of industrial emissions, tighter fuel and emissions standards for road vehicles and control of smoke from domestic properties. However, even at these lower levels, air pollution still causes harm to human health and the environment.

Ill health caused by air pollution is a health inequalities issue as it disproportionately affects the most vulnerable members of society, including the very young, the elderly, people with existing medical conditions and those living in deprived urban areas and deprived circumstances. While air quality is generally good in Scotland, improvements are required to reduce the adverse effects caused by air pollution particularly in urban areas. Certain pollution hotspots in Scotland have been declared Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs). With a reduction in large-scale industry, the influence of transport, agriculture and other non-industrial sources continue to be significant sources of air pollution. Ammonia emissions from agriculture are a precursor to PM (particulate matter) 2.5 in cities [See reference 119]. Agricultural emissions related to air quality are dominated by ammonia (NH₃) and agriculture accounts for around 90% of total ammonia emissions in Scotland [See reference 120]. Health effects range from chronic (long-term) disease and premature death to lesser symptoms affecting a large percentage of the population and contributing to greater use of medication, more days of restricted activity, more requirements for medical care. Air quality as well as nuisances such as odour, dust and noise are affected by human activities including transport, energy generation, industry, waste management, construction and agriculture, and through natural sources. This issue is discussed further in ‘Air and Climate change mitigation’.

Water quality has seen significant improvement over the last 25 years, and the majority of surface and ground waters are in good or high overall condition and continue to improve. However, a wide range of problems exist locally including risks to human health from flood events and poor-quality private water supplies. This issue is discussed further in ‘Water’.

The National Flood Risk Assessment for Flood Risk Management in Scotland 2024 [See reference 121] identified that there are around 284,000 homes, businesses and services across Scotland at risk of flooding from rivers, surface water and the sea, and by 2080 climate change will increase the numbers at risk by an additional 110,000 properties. This issue is discussed further in ‘Flood risk and climate change adaptation’.

Evolution of baseline – Pressures, trends and key points

Air quality is important for both short and long-term human health. In general, healthy people may not suffer from any serious health effects from exposure to the levels of pollution commonly experienced in urban environments. However, continual exposure can cause harm over the long term, and those with pre-existing health conditions such as heart disease, lung conditions, and asthma can be adversely impacted by exposure to air pollutants [See reference 122]. Research has shown that air pollution is one of the largest environmental risks to public health in the UK, reducing average life expectancy and often contributing to premature deaths [See reference 123]. Activities that generate air pollutants have been considered under the topic of Air Quality.

Transport is currently the most significant source contributing to poor air quality in urban areas [See reference 124] and emissions from transport have only declined by 15.9% since 1990 [See reference 125]. As in previous years, the car was the most popular mode of transport in 2022, with 55% of journeys made as a car driver [See reference 126]. Due to several common sources, most notably road traffic in urban areas, there is also a close relationship between air quality and environmental noise [See reference 127].

Pressures on water quality which can affect human health is primarily caused by increases in environmental pollutants from human activities, aquaculture, intensive agriculture and urbanisation.

Flooding can have significant environmental impacts and can also affect people, communities and businesses [See reference 128]. When floods occur, they disrupt day-to-day lives, and their impacts can be long lasting. Climate change is expected to increase the risk of flooding in coming years, and it also brings additional risks to human health posed by changes to air quality and rising temperatures [See reference 129].

The potential risks and benefits of climate change on population and health will not be evenly spread. For example, pockets of dense urban development will be more at risk of surface water flooding and summer heat stress. In addition, the effects to human health from climate change may have the greatest impact on vulnerable people. Negative health effects are likely to be disproportionately severe in areas of high deprivation because of the reduced ability of individuals and communities in these areas to prepare, respond and recover [See reference 130]. Impacts on infrastructure and the services which people rely on, including impacts on the transport, water, communications and energy networks can have significant impacts on health and wellbeing.

Likely evolution without implementation of the plan

The Scottish Government has policies to address these challenges, but without the implementation of the Agricultural Reform these will be less successful as opportunities for more effective implementation and coordination of policy across farmland will be lost. Without the implementation of the Agricultural Reform impacts of climate change combined with environmental degradation on population and human health are likely to increase further, through both social and economic impacts:

• Increased risks to communities from disruption to infrastructure and transport networks
• Increased risks from exposure to high temperatures
• Increased risks to communities from flood events and water scarcity
• Increased impacts on coastal communities and businesses due to sea level rise, coastal flooding and erosion
• Impacts on food safety and security.

Climate change

Air quality and greenhouse gas emissions are intrinsically linked as they both arise from broadly the same sources, notably transport, agriculture and energy generation.

Overview of baseline

Greenhouse gas emissions

The landmark 2015 Paris Agreement [See reference 131] gave rise to international consensus to keep global warming to “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” while “pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”. However, the most recently released report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that the world may breach the limit sooner than anticipated with the threshold being crossed permanently by the middle of the next decade due to human fossil fuel emissions [See reference 132].

Scotland declared a Climate Emergency in 2019 and is acting accordingly to achieve net zero emissions of all greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 2045 [See reference 133]

Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2023 (released 2025) [See reference 134] outline that:

• Source emissions of GHGs were 39.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e), a decrease of 1.9% from 2022.
• The GHG Account reduced by 51.3% between 1990 and 2023 [See reference 135].

In 2022, Scotland’s total emissions of the seven GHGs [See reference 136] were estimated to be 40.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e), remaining almost unchanged from 2021, with a slight reduction of just 0.1% [See reference 137]. Despite this overall stability in net emissions between 2021 and 2022, significant sectoral fluctuations occurred. The buildings and product use sector saw a substantial decrease of 1.2 MtCO₂e, largely due to high fuel prices and mild temperatures early in 2022. Smaller reductions were observed in Agriculture (-0.3 MtCO₂e) and Industry (-0.1 MtCO₂e). However, these declines were nearly offset by emission increases in other sectors. International aviation and shipping emissions rose by 0.7 MtCO₂e, and Domestic transport by 0.3 MtCO₂e, both primarily linked to the recovery from COVID-related transport restrictions. Emissions from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) and Electricity supply each increased by 0.2 MtCO₂e, while Fuel supply emissions rose marginally by 0.1 MtCO₂e, with a slight increase in waste emissions as well. Additionally, land-based emissions represent nearly half of Scotland emissions, therefore a transformation of land use is important to reach net zero [See reference 138].

Data on GHG emissions from agriculture highlights the following key emission sources and trends [See reference 139]:

• In 2023, GHG emissions from Scottish agriculture were 7.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e).
• Scottish agriculture emissions were stable in 2023, falling by 0.1% from 2022 to their lowest level since current records began in 1990.
• Total agriculture emissions have been in a long-term decline. Since 1990 emissions have fallen by 13% from 8.6 MtCO₂e to 7.5 MtCO₂e. Over the same period, total GHG emissions in Scotland fell by 51% from 81.2 MtCO₂e to 39.6 MtCO₂e.
• The long-term fall in emissions from agriculture was largely driven by falling livestock numbers. From 1990 to 2023 cattle and sheep numbers have decreased by 20% and 33%, respectively.
• Arable and other subsectors (including pigs, poultry and non-agriculture) were the only subsectors with increased emissions in 2023. Arable farming emissions rose by 5% to 1.5 MtCO₂e, driven by rising emissions from fuel combustion and liming. Other subsector emissions rose by 1% to 0.2 MtCO₂e.
• The suckler beef subsector is the largest contributor to total agriculture emissions. In 2023 suckler beef emissions contributed 41% of total agriculture emissions. Suckler beef emissions fell by 0.7 MtCO₂e (18%) between 1990 and 2023.

Data is also provided on average emission intensity for specific products for 2023-24. For meat products this is provided by dead weight tonne (dwt). Cereal production emission intensity is affected by fertiliser prices, and usage rose in 2023-24 as their prices fell from a peak in 2022-2023.

• Average beef emission intensity ranged from 30.9 to 32.8 kgCO₂e/kg dwt in 2023-24.
• Average sheep emission intensity was higher on Less Favoured Area (LFA) sheep farms (35.5 kgCO₂e/kg dwt) than on lowland sheep farms (25.2 kgCO₂e/kg dwt).
• The average emission intensity for milk production was 1.3 kgCO₂e/kg fat and protein corrected (FPC) milk in 2023-24. This was an increase of 2% from the previous year, as average milk yields fell. Lower productivity is associated with higher emission intensities.

A 50.1% reduction in estimated GHG emissions between 1990 and 2022 was also reported. The most significant contributor to this overall reduction was electricity supply emissions (such as power stations), with a reduction of 13.0 MtCO₂e (88.1%). This was followed by reductions in emissions from industrial emissions of 7.2 MtCO₂e (56.8%), from ‘Land use, land use change and forestry’ (LULUCF) of 5.8 MtCO₂e and a reduction in emissions in waste management emissions (such as landfill) by 4.9 MtCO₂e (75.4% reduction) since 1990 [See reference 140].

Scotland’s soils and peatlands are the biggest terrestrial store of carbon in Scotland with peatlands alone holding around 140 years’ worth of Scotland’s total annual greenhouse gas emissions [See reference 141]. Furthermore, Scotland’s seas contain a wealth of blue carbon habitats such as saltmarshes, seagrass beds, kelp forests, maerl beds and biogenic reefs.

Climate change risks

The Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Summary for Scotland [See reference 142] identifies the following risks requiring the most urgent action:

• The impacts of climate change on the natural environment, including terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine species, forests and agriculture.
• An increase in the range, quantities and consequences of pests, pathogens and invasive species, negatively affecting terrestrial, freshwater and marine priority habitats species, forestry and agriculture.
• The risk of climate change impacts, especially more frequent flooding and coastal erosion, causing damage to our infrastructure services, including energy, transport, water and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT).
• The impact of extreme temperatures, high winds and lightning on the transport network.
• The impact of increasing high temperatures on people’s health and wellbeing and changes in household energy demand due to seasonal temperature changes.
• Increased severity and frequency of flooding of homes, communities and businesses.
• The viability of coastal communities and the impact on coastal businesses due to sea level rise, coastal flooding and erosion.
• Damage to our cultural heritage assets as a result of temperature, precipitation, groundwater and landscape changes.
• Impacts internationally that may affect the UK, such as risks to food availability, safety and security, risks to international law and governance from climate change that will affect the UK, international trade routes, public health and the multiplication of risks across systems and geographies.

The risk assessment [See reference 143] also identifies the need for more strategic approaches to land use planning, integrating agriculture and forestry to link net GHG gains with other multiple benefits. In addition it supports more investigation of integrated adaptation/mitigation benefits from nitrogen efficiency in agriculture, systematic soil carbon monitoring and improved support and outreach for land managers to encourage uptake and knowledge exchange on good management practices.

Evolution of baseline – Pressure, trends and key points

Greenhouse gas emissions

Heating makes up approximately half of Scotland’s energy consumption (48.2%) compared to transport (27.6%) and electricity (21.1%) comprising approximately a quarter each [See reference 144]. A breakdown of electricity and heat consumption by sector shows that three-fifths is accounted for by the industrial and commercial sectors and two-fifths consumed domestically. Energy consumption in transport makes up approximately a third of all Scottish consumption (41.3 TWh). It has increased by 6.2% from 2021 but decreased by 1.1% from the 2005-07 baseline. Energy consumption in industry is next largest at 39.6 TWh and has decreased by 26.3% from the 2005-07 baseline, and 6.6% up from 2021 [See reference 145]. Energy consumption in the domestic sector is at 37.4 TWh, having decreased 27.8% from 2005-07. This may reflect improvements in energy efficiency in the domestic building stock in this time. Energy consumption in the commercial sector fell by 7.6% from the baseline to 21.7 TWh in 2022 [See reference 146].

In 2022, renewable electricity generation was equivalent to approximately 113% of Scotland’s gross electricity consumption. This is the highest level recorded to date, representing a 26 percentage point increase compared to 2021 [See reference 147]. In 2022, most of Scotland's renewable electricity—61.5%—was generated from onshore wind. This sector has grown rapidly, more than quadrupling between 2009 and 2022, and will continue to play a key role with 10.3 GW of projects in development [See reference 148]. In the first half of 2024, Scotland generated 18,084GWh of renewable electricity, up 13.7% on the same point in 2023. Renewable electricity capacity has been growing steadily, having increased by 5% from June 2023 to 15.6 GW in June 2024 [See reference 149].

In the first half of 2024, 76.4% of all renewable electricity generated in Scotland was from wind. Hydro is Scotland’s second highest source of renewable generation, while solar capacity has increased rapidly in the first half of this decade bioenergy and energy from waste accounts for 6.9% and whilst the current capacity of wave and tidal is considered to be relatively small, technology is developing [See reference 150].

As Scotland’s energy mix changes over the next few years, the electricity transmission network (grid) that supports the balance between energy generation and demand will change significantly. Infrastructure will play a key role in ensuring security of supply and decarbonising our energy systems in the most cost effective, affordable way [See reference 151].

In 2022-23, public transport journeys increased by 34%, with 76% of journeys made by bus, 16% by rail, 5% by air, and 2% by ferry. Road traffic also rose during this period, with overall road traffic increasing by 9% and car traffic by 11%, though both remain below pre-pandemic levels [See reference 152].

In 2023, Domestic transport (excluding International Aviation and Shipping) (11.4 MtCO₂e) was the largest source of net emissions, followed by Buildings and product use (7.7 MtCO₂e) and then Agriculture (7.5 MtCO₂e) [See reference 153]. The agriculture sector has seen a 1.1 MtCO₂e (13.0 per cent) fall in emissions between 1990 and 2023. Between 2022 and 2023 agricultural emissions essentially remained constant at a level of 7.5 MtCO₂e, falling marginally by 0.1%. [See reference 154].

According to the Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2023, methane was the main net gas emitted in agricultural emissions (4.5 MtCO₂e). Methane emissions in the agriculture sector have, however, fallen by 0.9 MtCO₂e between 1990 and 2023 (a 13.0% reduction), mainly due to a decrease in livestock numbers, particularly cattle and sheep. Agriculture is also by far the main contributor to emissions of nitrous oxide in Scotland. These are largely produced by agricultural practices on soils, and to a lesser extent by animal manure. Emissions of nitrous oxide in this sector have fallen by 0.6 MtCO₂e between 1990 and 2023, a 23.9% reduction [See reference 155].

Considering land use more generally, emissions from land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) were 0.6 MtCO₂e in 2023, down from 6.0 MtCO₂e in 1990 [See reference 156]. This sector saw a period of net greenhouse gas removals between 2009 and 2017. Methane emissions from land use have seen a slight increase since 1990, while nitrous oxide emissions from LULUCF have decreased by 29.8% over the same period.

Effects of climate change

The effects of previous, current and future greenhouse gas emissions mean that continuing climate change is now a certainty. The extent of the effects of climate change will vary by location and projections indicate that climate change trends observed over the last century will continue and intensify over the coming decades. Key long-term climate change trends for Scotland are that weather may become more variable, typical summers will be hotter and drier, winter and autumn will be milder and wetter and sea levels will continue to rise [See reference 157] and this will have an impact on coastal landscapes. Increases in summer heat waves, extreme temperatures and drought, as well as an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, are also expected [See reference 158]. Urban areas in particular will be exposed to extreme heat conditions [See reference 159] and changes in temperature and rainfall and pests and diseases increase the risk of crop failure, reduced animal performance and increased animal mortality, altering the patterns of Scotland’s agricultural uses [See reference 160][See reference 161].

Climate change has been identified as a primary pressure on many of the SEA topic areas (i.e. soil, water, biodiversity, cultural heritage and the historic environment). These pressures and predicted impacts have been discussed further under the individual SEA topics. The complex interaction between air quality and climate change has also been considered under the SEA topic of “Air Quality”.

Carbon stores and sinks

Scotland’s soils and peatlands are the biggest terrestrial store of carbon with peatlands alone holding around 3,000 million tonnes of carbon [See reference 162]; 60 times more than carbon stored by trees and other vegetation [See reference 163]. Inshore and offshore waters also store a significant resource of blue carbon, with an estimated 18 million tonnes of organic carbon stored in the top 10 cm of sediments across Scotland’s seas [See reference 164].

Likely evolution without implementation of the plan

The Scottish Government has policies to address these challenges, but without the implementation of the Agricultural Reform these will be less effective as opportunities for more effective implementation and coordination of policy within the agricultural sector will be lost. There will be continued action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors, however there will be increasing exposure to climate risks from past, present and future emissions in the absence of co-ordinated action. Natural carbon stores in terms of soils and vegetation can emit more carbon in the absence of appropriate adaptation measures. Uncoordinated and unplanned adaptation can further contribute to emissions as a result of increased demand for energy for cooling or materials required to remediate the impacts of climate change.

Air quality

Overview of baseline

The main air pollutants are nitrogen oxides (NO_x), particulate matter (PM_x), sulphur dioxide (SO₂), ammonia (NH₃), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and ozone (O₃). Sulphur dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, particulates, and low-level ozone are generally considered to be of most importance in relation to human health and the environment [See reference 165].

In towns and cities, urban woodlands, forests and trees not only improve the general public realm but also deliver cooling, shade, better air quality and absorb CO₂ emissions.

Agriculture is a key source of ammonia emissions, which lead to indirect emissions of nitrous oxide, leading to nitrogen deposition with impacts on ecosystems. Ammonia also binds with other gases in the atmosphere to form fine particulates which are harmful to health. In Scotland, ammonia emissions have only reduced by 16% since the 1970s, with agriculture currently responsible for 92%, and ruminants contributing 52% of ammonia emissions from agriculture. Good practice measures to reduce ammonia emissions from ruminant farming are well established, but uptake is low. This may be due to low public pressure, lack of farmer awareness of the impacts and/or causes, and for economic reasons. [See reference 166].

Evolution of baseline – Pressure, trends and key points

Air quality in Scotland has improved considerably over the last few decades. Between 2005 and 2022 there were decreases of 62% for carbon monoxide (CO), 63% for nitrogen oxides (NO_x), 20% for non-methane volatile organic compounds, 48% for fine particulate matter (PM10) and 93% for SO₂ [See reference 167] [See reference 168]. However, the rate of decline for some has started to level off in recent years. Additionally, ammonia levels have had a slower rate of decline by only around 12% in this period and even increased slightly over recent years [See reference 169]. Additionally, up to 2,700 deaths are estimated to be attributable to long-term exposure to air pollution in Scotland each year [See reference 170] and there are some areas of towns and cities where air quality has been identified as a concern.

Section 83(1) of the Environmental Act 1995 [See reference 171] sets out a requirement that where air quality objectives are not being met or are unlikely to be met within the relevant period, Local Authorities must designate an Air Quality Management Area (AQMA). In Scotland, 26 AQMAs are currently declared, with 13 of Scotland’s 32 Local Authorities having declared at least one [See reference 172]. The majority of these are in urban areas as a result of NO_x alone or in combination with PM10 levels, and primarily as a result of traffic emissions [See reference 173].

Air pollution often originates from the same activities that contribute to climate change; notably transport, agriculture and energy generation. Transport is the most significant source contributing to poor air quality in urban areas [See reference 174]. While measures such as using alternative fuel sources and encouraging active travel can help improve air quality in addition to reducing GHG emissions, some measures aimed at reducing the impacts of climate change can also have a negative impact on air quality. For example, while emissions from well operated and well-maintained modern biomass boilers are generally lower than the coal equivalent, the burning of biomass feedstock does emit air pollutants such as particulates [See reference 175].

Cleaner air provides multiple benefits and actions taken, such as a shift towards low or zero emissions transport and energy sources, should provide mutual benefits for both air quality and climate change [See reference 176].

Likely evolution without implementation of the plan

The Scottish Government has policies to address these challenges, but without the implementation of the Agricultural Reform these will be less effective as opportunities for more effective implementation and coordination of policy within the agricultural sector will be lost. The increase in temperature associated with climate change will impact on air quality in a number of ways. For example, this could lead to increases in photochemical smog. Drought episodes can also lead to emissions of volatile organic compounds from vegetation [See reference 177]. Furthermore, increased wildfires could also impact on air quality, including from transboundary events. In the absence of measures to address these sources of air pollutants, there are likely to be increased impacts on both human health and the natural environment, including agricultural landscapes.

Soil

Overview of baseline

Scotland’s land is diverse and complex. It is shaped by its unique geology, climate, and land use practices. Soils in Scotland play a vital role in delivering multiple environmental benefits, from supporting food production to regulating water quality and storing vast quantities of carbon, which is crucial in the context of climate change mitigation.

Soil is a non-renewable resource and is fundamentally one of Scotland’s most important assets [See reference 178]. It supports a wide range of natural processes and underpins much of our natural environment, helping to provide a wide range of environmental, economic and societal benefits. For example, soil provides the basis for food, controls and regulates environmental interactions such as regulating the flow and quality of water and providing a platform for buildings and roads. There is an intrinsic relationship between soil health and other environmental topics; biodiversity, water and air quality in particular. For example, soil erosion is one of the main contributors to diffuse water pollution [See reference 179].

A defining feature of Scottish soils is their high organic matter content (see Figure C.5), distinguishing them from soils elsewhere in the UK. The cold and wet climate slows down the decomposition of organic material, allowing it to accumulate in the soil. As a result, Scotland’s soils store an estimated 3,000 million tonnes of carbon, which is approximately sixty times more than is stored in Scotland’s vegetation, and over half of the UK’s total soil carbon stock [See reference 180]. This makes Scottish soils a significant carbon reservoir. However, the loss of even 1% of this carbon to the atmosphere in the form of carbon dioxide could potentially lead to significant increases in Scotland’s annual greenhouse gas emissions [See reference 181].

Despite their importance, Scottish soils face a number of challenges. The climate contributes not only to high organic matter content but also to the leaching of nutrients, often resulting in acidic and nutrient-poor conditions. Agricultural practices also exert pressures on soil quality. For instance, compacted soils, present in 18% of agricultural top soils during winter, have reduced porosity, limiting water infiltration and increasing the risk of surface runoff and localised flooding [See reference 182]. Compaction also restricts root growth and nutrient availability, often leading to increased fertiliser use to maintain yields. One Scottish study found that compacted soils required twice the nitrogen input to achieve the same crop yield as non-compacted soils [See reference 183].

Airborne nitrogen deposition poses an additional threat, particularly to naturally nutrient-poor and sensitive habitats such as peatlands. In many parts of Scotland, deposition levels exceed the thresholds that peat-forming vegetation can tolerate, leading to long-term changes in soil chemistry and associated biodiversity [See reference 184].

Peatlands and carbon-rich soils

Scotland’s peatlands play a key role in regulating atmospheric pollutants, reducing flooding and benefitting biodiversity and due to this, have been afforded special protection through the Scotland’s National Peatland Plan [See reference 185]. Peatlands are of particular importance for mitigating climate change by acting as carbon ‘sinks’. If peatlands are in good condition, they have the ability to deposit and continually sequester new carbon in peat-forming vegetation. However, degraded soils can act as a net carbon emitter. Peatlands in Scotland extend over large areas of Scottish uplands but are most extensive in the north and west in areas with gentle slopes and poor drainage [See reference 186]. Figure C.6 presents a map of carbon and peatland classes across Scotland.

Blanket bog is the most extensive semi-natural habitat in Scotland covering around 23% of the land area [See reference 187]. Approximately 1.6 billion tonnes of the carbon stored in Scottish soils is within peat [See reference 188]. As with all soils, peats are at risk from land use change and the effects of climate change, such as from the likelihood of extreme drought events [See reference 189]. Their loss or degradation (and the associated loss of carbon) has the potential to be a significant contributor to Scotland’s greenhouse gas emissions [See reference 190]. If Scotland lost all of the carbon stored in its peat soils as CO₂, it would be the equivalent of more than 120 times Scotland's annual greenhouse gas emissions. It is estimated that over 80% of Scotland’s peatlands are degraded [See reference 191]. Land use change and management practices can impact significantly on soil carbon stores and sequestration.

Geology and geodiversity

Scotland’s soils formed primarily since the last ice age, and are derived from a wide variety of 'parent materials'. These parent materials reflect the country’s complex geological history, encompassing ancient, metamorphosed rocks as well as more recent glacial and fluvial deposits [See reference 192]. This geological diversity contributes to the wide range of soil types found across the country.

There are around 895 important rock and landform sites in Scotland of which approximately 75% are protected as notified Earth science features in SSSIs; their condition is monitored under NatureScot’s site monitoring programme [See reference 193][See reference 194]. Furthermore, Edinburgh, West Lothian, East Dunbartonshire, Glasgow and East Lothian have completed local geodiversity audits, which note geodiversity resources and provide information about them [See reference 195].

Evolution of baseline – Pressure, trends and key points

Climate change and loss of organic matter pose significant threats to Scottish soils, with both likely to affect soil function, including loss of soil carbon. The loss of valued soils in particular has the potential for national impacts which will be difficult to reverse. In the case of climate change, these impacts have the potential to be felt on a global scale [See reference 196]. As such, the management and use of these resources can affect the amount of CO₂ that is held or released.

Changes in land use and land management practices are also key pressures on soil. These include activities such as energy infrastructure, transport and development, including road building and the expansion of agriculture and forestry [See reference 197]. In Scotland, the percentage of land affected by soil sealing increased between 2009 and 2019 from 1.5% to 1.9%. There is some regional variation with the Clyde and Forth regions having the highest percentage of land affected by soil sealing at 5% and the West Highland and Argyll regions experiencing below 1%. It is estimated that 1,400 hectares of Scottish land is sealed every year [See reference 198].

Soil contamination can also arise from many causes, including atmospheric deposition, agriculture and forestry operations, mining and historic land contamination, and can impact on soil function and biodiversity [See reference 199].

Threats from erosion are of localised significance, however, they can also lead to loss of important functions. Changes in vegetation also alter soil biodiversity which can significantly affect soil as a habitat and the functions it sustains.

Scotland’s land quality will continue to be shaped by a range of environmental and human pressures. There are long-standing and emerging threats affecting soil health and function. The State of Scotland’s Soil Report (2011) identified seven key risks that remain relevant:

• Loss of Organic Matter: Although topsoil organic matter appears relatively stable, uncertainties remain about overall stock levels. This is a critical concern given its role in carbon storage and climate regulation.
• Soil Sealing: Development continues to result in the permanent loss of soil function, yet no systematic data is collected on its extent. Planning decisions must better account for soil value.
• Contamination: While some legacy pollutants have declined, limited data exists on the presence and impact of many modern contaminants, including persistent organic chemicals.
• Decline in Soil Biodiversity: Soil biodiversity is vital for ecosystem services, yet little is known about its current condition or trends in Scotland.
• Erosion and Landslides: Soil erosion leads to fertility and carbon loss, with off-site impacts on water quality. Landslides remain infrequent but locally significant.
• Compaction: Common in agricultural soils, compaction reduces crop productivity and increases runoff risk. There is no national assessment of its scale.
• Emerging Issues: New risks, such as microplastics and climate-driven soil process changes, are poorly understood due to limited evidence.

More recent evidence, including from the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA), indicates that climate change is intensifying several soil-related risks. Critical carbon stores like peatlands are increasingly vulnerable to degradation from intense rainfall, drying, and wildfires. These impacts have the potential to impact carbon sequestration, with potential tipping points that turn sinks into sources of emissions. Coastal and marine carbon stores also face risks from warming and acidification.

The CCRA also identifies opportunities that may arise in some regions, particularly where mild, wet climates support high peatland productivity. Yet, such benefits are unlikely to offset wider degradation risks under higher magnitudes of climate change.

The most recent analysis by Environmental Standards Scotland also highlighted ongoing risks and gaps in soil protection, particularly regarding enforcement, soil biodiversity, and the socio-economic impacts of degradation [See reference 200]. Despite targeted studies estimating the cost of soil erosion (£31–£50 million annually) and soil compaction (£25 - £75 million annually), these issues continue to affect agricultural productivity, water quality, and resilience to extreme weather events.

Likely evolution without implementation of the plan

The Scottish Government has policies to address these challenges, but without the implementation of the Agricultural Reform these will be less effective as opportunities for more effective implementation and coordination of policy will be lost. Adverse effects on soil by land use and climate change will continue (including seasonal aridity and wetness), exacerbating soil compaction, erosion and flooding. Opportunities to restore degraded carbon stores, particularly peatlands, may not be fully realised.

Scotland’s soils are vital but vulnerable, developing over centuries, but rapidly degrading by pressures such as erosion, compaction, contamination, and organic matter loss. While a number of soil-related policies, monitoring programmes and research initiatives are already in place, including the Scottish Soil Framework (2009) [See reference 201], the State of Scotland’s Soil Report (2011), and the Strategic Research Programme [See reference 202], current measures lack the integrated, outcome-focused approach needed to drive transformative change across the agricultural sector. The recently published Soils Route Map for Scotland [See reference 203] aims to achieve a vision of ‘thriving soils for Scotland’s communities, economy and environment’ and recognises the challenges of addressing soil security in a policy context due to the absence of an overarching soil-specific policy. It aims to improve the integration of supporting soils across different policies.

In the absence of the Agricultural Reform, the trajectory for soils and land quality in Scotland is likely to deteriorate, undermining progress toward the five key outcomes set out in the Vision for Agriculture and Soil Route Map for Scotland. The pressures on Scotland’s soils are likely to intensify. Practices that contribute to soil degradation, such as over-cultivation, heavy machinery use, and poor drainage, would remain inadequately addressed. Peatland degradation and greenhouse gas emissions from soils, especially nitrous oxide, would likely continue or increase. Compacted and nutrient-depleted soils would reduce crop yields and increase reliance on synthetic fertilisers, undermining both environmental and economic sustainability.

Additionally, nature restoration targets would be harder to achieve. Soil biodiversity remains poorly understood, and airborne nitrogen deposition has the potential to continue threatening sensitive habitats, especially in upland and peatland areas. Without stronger incentives and coordinated land management strategies, the ability of soils to support ecosystem services, store carbon, and contribute to climate adaptation would diminish.

Water

Overview of baseline

Water quality

Scotland’s water provides a wide range of benefits that support our health and prosperity, such as the provision of drinking water and as a resource for use in agriculture and industry. It can also be used as an energy source through hydro-power schemes, tidal and wave energy, and hydrogen technologies. These water resources also support a rich diversity of habitats and species, attract tourism, promote recreation and provide for the sustainable growth of the economy [See reference 204].

In recent years, Scotland has continued to see improvements in the condition of its water environment. The 2023 State of Scotland’s Water Environment report [See reference 205] shows that 67.9% of all water bodies are now in good or better condition, a slight increase from 67.1% in 2022. Progress has been made across multiple themes, including water quality, fish migration, and flows and levels, although overall condition is determined by the most limiting factor.

Nearly six in ten rivers (58.2%) and around seven in ten lochs (69.8%) are now assessed as good or high. The picture is stronger for transitional and coastal waters, with 87.5% of estuaries and almost all coastal waters (99.6%) in good or excellent condition. Groundwater also remains in a healthy state, with 85.9% classified as good [See reference 206]. Water condition in Scotland is shown in Figure C.7.

Since water environment classification began in 2008, the percentage of surface water bodies in good or better condition has risen from 61% to 65.6%, while the number of those in bad condition has fallen by almost three-quarters. Groundwater bodies have also shown long-term gains, improving from 77.3% good status in 2008 to 85.9% in 2023 [See reference 207].

Diffuse pollution from agriculture and forestry is a key pressure on water quality in Scotland, with around 40% of surface water bodies at risk of failing to meet environmental targets due to such inputs. Nitrous oxide emissions, a potent greenhouse gas, originate largely from agricultural soils, highlighting the need for sustainable nutrient management [See reference 208].

Scotland’s groundwater is a valuable asset for many. The majority (346) of Scotland’s groundwaters are in good condition (346 out of 403) [See reference 209]. Agriculture and the legacy of industrial activity are the main causes of regional-scale groundwater problems, whereas inadequate construction of private water supplies and inappropriate management of wastes can create localised problems [See reference 210]. Run-off and leaching from soils and discharges from sewage processing and industrial sources combined with legacy nitrates in groundwater, together contribute to a total estimated discharge of nitrogen into Scottish coastal waters of around 155.3 kt N / yr [See reference 211]. There are five nitrate vulnerable zones (NVZs) in Scotland, which are monitored by SEPA to manage nitrate concentrations in ground water and surface water (see Figure C.8) [See reference 212].

Water availability

Changes in precipitation including drought can impact on water availability, with negative effects on communities, business and industry and habitats. Low flow conditions can concentrate pollutants and increased water temperatures can reach levels which cause fish mortality.

Scotland has been experiencing prolonged periods of dry weather, with dry weather experienced in 2025 considered as exceptional when compared to average conditions in long-term records. Dry spring conditions, following drier than average autumn and winter 2024-25, has contributed to low river and groundwater levels, prompting SEPA to issue scarcity warnings. Agriculture is often one of the first sectors to be impacted by drought due to its high water demand and dependency on the weather, with water scarcity posing risk of crop failure and to animal welfare, impacting farm and croft profitability [See reference 213]. There is also a “drought divide” in Scotland, with the east of the country consistently facing greater water stress than the west, due to its drier climate [See reference 214].

In 2023, most of Scotland’s water bodies continued to show a strong condition in relation to flows and levels, with 88.6% assessed as good or high. This reflects effective management of water resources and improvements in how water abstraction and regulation are balanced against environmental needs. Only a small proportion (around 11%) were classified as moderate, poor, or bad, indicating ongoing pressures in some areas where water demand or modifications to rivers and lochs continue to affect natural flow regimes. These results highlight that while the majority of Scotland’s rivers and lochs maintain healthy water levels, targeted action remains necessary to address localised issues and to secure long-term resilience in the face of climate change and increasing pressures on water use [See reference 215].

Water scarcity is increasingly recognised as a climate risk for Scotland, with projections indicating drier summers of up to 10-20% less rainfall by the 2050s [See reference 216]. The CCRA highlights that water scarcity in summer is already an issue, particularly for private water supplies, agriculture and freshwater ecosystems, and that more action is urgently needed to manage this risk [See reference 217]. The Academic Advisory Panel has further noted that poor soil management, reductions in peatland and vegetation cover, and intensive cropping practices can all exacerbate vulnerability to drought, while measures such as building soil organic matter, restoring upland peatlands, and creating on-farm water storage can strengthen resilience [See reference 218]. SEPA’s National Water Scarcity Plan therefore stresses the need for coordinated catchment-scale management, efficient water use across all sectors, and early action during dry periods to protect both the environment and water users.

Flooding

It is predicted that the greatest direct climate change-related threats for the UK are large increases in flood risk, exposure to high temperatures and heat waves; shortages in the public water supply and for agriculture, energy production and industry; substantial risks to UK wildlife and natural ecosystems, risks to domestic and international food production and trade [See reference 219]. Flood risk can arise from rivers, surface water, ground water or coastal flooding [See reference 220]:

• Coastal flooding – is caused by high sea levels, waves overtopping defences or the inundation of low-lying land at the coasts or in estuaries. Coastal flooding is often linked to coastal erosion (see Figure C.9).
• River (fluvial) flooding - this occurs when the water draining from the surrounding land exceeds the capacity of the watercourse (see Figure C.10).
• Surface water (pluvial) flooding - is caused when rainfall water ponds or flows over the ground before it enters a natural or man-made drainage system or watercourse; or when water cannot enter the drainage system because the system is already full to capacity.
• Groundwater flooding - this occurs when water levels in the ground rise above surface levels.
• Sewer flooding - this occurs when combined sewers are overwhelmed by heavy rainfall. Sewer flooding is often closely linked to surface water flooding and may contain untreated foul water.

Flood risk resulting from failure of infrastructure, such as dams or canal embankments, can also be exacerbated as a result of climate change, as exemplified by the Union Canal breach of 2020.

Coastal infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to coastal flooding. Scotland has £19.5bn of buildings and infrastructure within 50 metres of the shoreline. Three-quarters of these assets are protected by natural defences (£14.5bn) such as sand dunes; compared with artificial defences (£5bn) such as sea walls [See reference 221].

Flooding can have significant and long-lasting impacts on people, communities, and businesses. Flood Risk Management Strategies [See reference 222] and Plans [See reference 223] co-ordinate action to tackle flooding in Scotland, setting out the national direction for flood risk management and helping target investment and coordinate action across public bodies. Flood maps have also been produced which help to show where areas are likely to be at risk of flooding from rivers, seas and surface water [See reference 224].

The natural environment also plays a role in mitigating flood risk, providing water storage and slowing run off [See reference 225]. Scotland's peatlands play an important role in natural flood management. Peatland has the ability to soak up and store vast quantities of water, particularly in pools, hollows and depressions, thereby slowing the flow of water through a catchment. This can prevent flooding downstream within catchments, particularly if large areas of peatland are present upstream [See reference 226]. Likewise, other habitats such as woodland may also contribute towards natural flood management. Wetlands can also store excess rainfall and release it slowly, moderating extremes in water availability and reducing both flood and drought risk [See reference 227]. Woodland and forestry can help prevent flooding by intercepting precipitation, reducing surface water runoff through increased infiltration, increased use of water through evapotranspiration [See reference 228]. Fallen branches and trees may also create natural dams along watercourses, helping to slow the flow of the water.

Evolution of baseline - Pressures, trends and Key points

Key pressures on the surface water environment include urbanisation, an increase in invasive non-native species, intensive agriculture/aquaculture and climate change. Rural and urban diffuse pollution remains a concern for water quality, particularly in relation to agriculture, forestry, and urban development [See reference 229].

Airborne pollution, particularly associated with vehicle emissions and reactive nitrogen from agriculture, can impact upon water bodies [See reference 230]. Heightened nitrogen concentrations can cause the acidification and eutrophication of water bodies. Eutrophication occurs when the concentrations of otherwise limiting nutrients increase, allowing aquatic plants and algae to grow unchecked and depleting oxygen levels.

The effects of climate change such as increased temperatures and changes to rainfall patterns have been projected to affect flows in rivers and impact on water resource availability [See reference 231]. A changing climate is also expected to have ecological impacts, such as an increasing risk of non-native species spreading and becoming established in water environments [See reference 232].

Water scarcity is likely to become an increasing risk in Scotland, with instances of extreme drought increasingly common with climate change. At the same time, demand for water expected to rise due to population and demographic shifts [See reference 233].

The risk of flooding from rivers, surface waters and the sea is predicted to increase. This can damage material assets, pose risks to population and human health through the spread of infectious diseases, and lead to the loss of habitats through erosion. It also heightens risks to communities, businesses and infrastructure. Development can additionally contribute to diffuse pollution in surface water. The 2023 State of Scotland’s Water Environment Report shows that 67.9% of Scotland’s water bodies are now in good or better condition, with notable variation between types. Around 58% of rivers and 70% of lochs are in good or high condition, alongside 87.5% of estuaries and almost all coastal waters (99.6%). Groundwater also remains in strong condition, with 85.9% classed as good. [See reference 234].

Scotland’s Water Framework Directive (WFD) aquatic monitoring strategy is to ensure that sufficient environmental data is collected to ensure that progress is being made towards the WFD, as implemented through UK environmental legislation [See reference 235]. The development and operation of new infrastructure has the potential to negatively impact on water quality, either during construction or via pollution run-off. New structures on land can also affect the capacity of flood plains or flood defences.

Likely evolution without implementation of the plan

The Scottish Government has policies to address these challenges, but without the implementation of the Agricultural Reform there will be less effective implementation within the agricultural sector and land use practices. It is likely that many of the risks associated with the water environment will continue to increase. Key impacts are likely to result from more frequent and severe flooding, periods of water shortage, deteriorating water quality during flood and low flow conditions and damage to aquatic and marine habitats and species.

Cultural heritage including architectural and archaeological heritage

Overview of baseline

Scotland’s many and varied historical sites are unique and irreplaceable. These sites and features are regarded as making a valuable contribution to our quality of life, cultural identity, education and economy. While these assets are distributed widely throughout Scotland, there are clusters of sites in and around our settlements and also around our coastlines.

Designated assets in Scotland currently include seven World Heritage Sites [See reference 236], 46,762 Listed Buildings, 8,078 Scheduled Monuments, 671 Conservation Areas, 367 Designed Gardens and Landscapes, 8 Historic Marine Protected Areas, 8 Scheduled Wrecks, and 40 Nationally Important Battlefields [See reference 237], as shown in Figure C.11. Scotland also has two National Parks and 40 National Scenic Areas which contain many important features of the historic environment.

CANMORE contains more than 330,000 records and 1.5 million catalogue entries for archaeological sites, buildings, industry and maritime heritage across Scotland [See reference 238]. It is estimated that most of Scotland’s historic environment is undesignated (around 90-95%). There are many reasons why a historic feature might not be designated, including not meeting the designation criteria or not yet being recorded, with numerous archaeological sites, monuments, gardens, historic landscapes, woodlands, and routes, such as drove roads, remaining unprotected by law [See reference 239]. These undesignated assets also provide important contextual information which helps us better understand designated sites [See reference 240].

Evolution of baseline – Pressures, trends and key points

83% of Scheduled Monuments are considered to be in an optimal or generally satisfactory condition and 750 historic buildings on the Buildings at Risk Register have been saved between 2009 and 2018, with more than 200 others in the process of being restored [See reference 241].

Development is a key pressure on the historic environment and cultural heritage, both directly in terms of damage to known and unknown features, and the potential for impacts on setting. Other known pressures include changing land use and land management, tourism/visitors, pollution and climate change.

Scotland’s climate is projected to become warmer and wetter, with hotter summers, milder winters, and increasingly intense rainfall, alongside accelerating sea level rise and more frequent extreme weather events. These changes are already driving faster weathering of stone, rotting of timbers, and corrosion of metals, pushing many historic assets into conditions they were not designed to withstand. Coastal erosion remains a particular threat, with tidal records showing sea levels rising at around 3 mm per year and erosion rates on Scotland’s soft coastlines nearly doubling since the 1970s [See reference 242]. Iconic and fragile sites, such as Skara Brae in Orkney and St Andrews Castle, are especially vulnerable, underlining the urgent need for adaptation and resilience planning across Scotland’s cultural, architectural and archaeological heritage [See reference 243].

Increased rainfall will mean that historic buildings and assets will be wetter for longer periods of time, and as such may result in the penetration of water, dampness, condensation and fungus growth, ground instability and structural collapse. This can potentially have damaging effects on the fabric of buildings and the health of those using it. This threat will grow in the future, given the future predictions of the likely effects of global warming and climate change for the remainder of this century.

Likely evolution without implementation of the plan

The Agricultural Reform will support Scotland’s progress to net zero and help adapt to climate change through land management practices that also benefit the historic environment. These may include measures to avoid damaging cultivation practices, manage erosion risks, and promote sustainable grazing and land use in areas with cultural and archaeological significance. Without the implementation of the Agricultural Reform, there may be reduced coordination and fewer resources directed toward the protection and sustainable management of rural heritage assets, increasing the risk of degradation or loss over time.

Landscape, townscape and seascape

Overview of baseline

Scotland's distinctive landscapes, seascapes and townscapes are a significant part of the country’s natural and cultural heritage and make an important contribution to the economy and the wellbeing of the population. They play a key role in attracting tourism, affording opportunities for business and providing the setting for outdoor recreation.

There are currently two National Parks (Loch Lomond and The Trossachs, and the Cairngorms) and 40 National Scenic Areas in Scotland. Over 13% of Scotland’s land area has been classified as a National Scenic Area [See reference 244]. Designations such as Local Landscape Areas, Local Nature Conservation Sites, Local Nature Reserves, Regional Parks, Geological Conservation Review Sites and Country parks have also been established at a regional and local level by many local authorities [See reference 245]. These areas of important nature or landscape value have been designated locally for conservation purposes and are afforded protection from inappropriate development [See reference 246]. Forty two Wild Land Areas are also recognised as nationally important in Scotland reflecting landscapes with minimal human influence [See reference 247]. Figure C.12 presents Scotland’s landscape designations.

Evolution of baseline – Pressures, trends and key points

Scotland’s landscapes are constantly changing and evolving in response to both natural processes and the changing demands of society. Changes in landscape tend to occur over long periods of time, and gradual change, as a result of development such as housing and renewable energy can be difficult to determine [See reference 248].

Climate change is expected to lead to extensive landscape change across Scotland and is viewed as an increasing pressure on landscape, not only as a result of direct effects but also as a result of indirect impacts [See reference 249]. Direct impacts are likely as a result of changing temperatures and patterns of precipitation, weather events and sea level change [See reference 250]. Other commitments to adapting to the predicted effects of climate change, for example, the development of renewable energy (such as wind farms, hydro-power schemes, solar power and hydrogen technologies) is seen by many as a pressure on both visual amenity and the character of many rural landscapes. The construction of new transport infrastructure and working towards a national target for increasing forest cover in Scotland also has the potential to affect our landscapes and seascapes.

The greatest changes are likely to be seen in areas of highest population, such as lowland and coastal areas. Mitigation and adaptation measures are expected to have a greater influence on both Scotland's landscapes and the quality of life than that of the direct effects of climate change [See reference 251].

The coast and foreshore are under many pressures particularly from climate change, rising sea level and coastal erosion. These areas are also very important recreational resources, which is dependent on the landscape and environmental quality of these areas.

Development and changes in land use related to urban expansion-associated infrastructure, is also a key pressure and the distinctive landscape settings of many towns and cities is being lost as a result of settlement expansion and infrastructure requirements.

Likely evolution without implementation of the plan

The Scottish Government has policies to address these challenges, but without the implementation of the Agricultural Reform these will be less effective as opportunities for more effective implementation and coordination of policy will be lost, and management of landscape change will be further challenged. The impacts of unmanaged change could include landscape change resulting from flood damage, coastal change and wildfire. There could be increases in pests and disease which impact on key species within the landscape and lead to losses of trees, crops and livestock. Although adaptation measures would still take place, these would be at a lower rate and within a less coordinated framework.

Material assets

Overview of baseline

While existing policies relating to energy, waste, transportation and land use are wide-ranging, they largely share the aims of contributing to core planning objectives, supporting sustainable development, reducing GHG emissions, and making the best use of Scotland’s resources and existing infrastructure.

Scotland’s natural resources are also material assets. This includes those related to Scotland’s land use, agricultural productivity and food production.

Mineral resources and aggregates are used for purposes such as fuel (e.g. coal), and construction (e.g. sand gravel and rock). However, the quantity of these resources is finite and once they are used up, they cannot be replaced.

Waste management, transportation and efficiency in energy generation are also important to the agricultural sector and have the potential for environmental impacts. Environmental baseline information relevant to each of these sectors is presented in the following sections.

Agricultural land

The Land Capability for Agriculture (LCA) classification [See reference 252] is used to rank land on the basis of its potential productivity and cropping flexibility. As shown in Figure C.13, land suitable for supporting improved grassland and rough grazing extends through the Southern Uplands, northwest Highlands and Islands. Higher quality agricultural land suitable for crops is distributed throughout the Lothians, Fife, Tayside and the eastern Scottish Borders through to Ayrshire, the Clyde Valley, parts of Dumfries and Galloway and the north east of Scotland including the coastal areas around the Moray and Cromarty Firths.

Scotland’s land use is also changing over time. For example, the total area used for cereal production has declined slightly by 0.8%, compared to the five-year average, mainly due to a decrease in winter crops. However, an increase in spring crops such as barley and oats has partially offset this decline [See reference 253]. Additionally, soil sealing, loss of prime agricultural land, and soil erosion in Scotland threaten crop productivity and ecosystem health [See reference 254].

The physical realities of farming and crofting in Scotland have led to much of the landscape being defined as less favoured areas (LFA). About 86% of Scotland’s agricultural land, equivalent to over 5 million hectares, is designated as Less Favoured Area (LFA) [See reference 255]. This designation recognises areas where farming is disadvantaged by poor soils, difficult topography, limited cultivation potential, and low productivity. These areas are primarily suited to extensive livestock farming, especially sheep and cattle grazing.

The LFA classification supports disadvantaged agricultural areas, including crofting communities, and helps maintain viable rural populations. Of Scotland’s LFA land, 98% is designated as Severely Disadvantaged Area (SDA), with the remaining 2% as Disadvantaged Area (DA) [See reference 256]. This extensive LFA coverage contrasts with England, where only 17% of the farmed area holds such status.

LFAs are not only essential for agricultural output, particularly low-intensity red meat production, but also deliver wider public goods, such as biodiversity conservation, cultural landscapes, and rural employment, providing social and environmental benefits that are not reflected in market returns.

Livestock and food production

Livestock farming is a major component of Scotland’s rural economy and land use, with cattle and sheep representing the dominant livestock types. The June 2024 Agricultural Census shows a drop in the numbers of livestock in Scotland, with the long-term trend in declining cattle numbers continuing. Cattle numbers fell to 1.67 million, representing a 2.4% decrease compared to the five-year average (2019–2023) and a 0.9% drop from 2023. Sheep numbers also declined by 3.8%, bringing the total to 6.47 million. Similarly, the number of pigs dropped significantly by 6.5%, with 315,500 pigs recorded in 2024. These figures reflect a long-term trend of declining livestock populations in Scotland. [See reference 257].

Livestock systems play a significant role in shaping Scotland’s rural landscapes and biodiversity. However, they also contribute to greenhouse gas emissions (notably methane), nutrient pollution, and ammonia emissions. The intensification or expansion of livestock systems can lead to pressure on local ecosystems, particularly in areas with sensitive soils or water bodies.

Maps of Scotland’s livestock and food production Agricultural Census (2024) data are presented in Figures C.14 – C.24.

Energy

Heating makes up approximately half of Scotland’s energy consumption (48.2%) with transport (27.6%) and electricity (21.1%) making up approximately a quarter each [See reference 258]. A breakdown by sector of non-transport energy consumption shows that 58.5% is accounted for by industrial and commercial sectors, with 41.5% consumed domestically [See reference 259]. Domestic consumption of electricity and heat dropped by 27.8%% in 2022, compared to the 2005-2007 baseline. Energy consumption in transport decreased slightly in 2022 by 1.1%, industrial energy consumption has dropped by 26.3% and commercial consumption fell by 7.6% compared to the 2005-2007 baseline [See reference 260].

Scotland's energy consumption increased by 0.2% from 2021 to 2022, with a 6.6% rise in Industry and a 6.2% rise in Transport balanced out by a 10.5% decrease in Domestic energy consumption. Overall energy consumption in 2022 is 18.0% lower than the 2005-2007 baseline [See reference 261].

In the first half of 2024, Scotland generated 18,084GWh of renewable electricity, up 13.7% on the same point in 2023. Scotland’s renewable electricity capacity increased by 5% from June 2023 to 15.6 GW in June 2024. As of June 2024, there are 830 potential renewable electricity projects in the planning and construction pipeline with a projected total capacity of 51.3 GW including battery and pumped hydro storage [See reference 262]. In 2022 Scotland successfully achieved the target of generating more than 100% of its gross electricity consumption from renewable sources (total electricity generation minus exports) and the government decided not to continue monitoring this target beyond 2022 [See reference 263].

There have been significant changes to the electricity generation mix in recent years with the vast majority of the electricity that Scotland generated from low carbon sources. In turn, fossil fuel generation in 2022 just provided 11.4% of all electricity generated from oil and gas, compared to 48.4% in 2010 [See reference 264].

In the first half of 2024, 76.4% of all renewable electricity generated in Scotland was from wind. Hydro is Scotland’s second highest source of renewable generation (15.4%) [See reference 265]. The remaining 8.2% was produced by other renewable energy technologies. Solar capacity has increased rapidly in the first half of this decade. Bioenergy and energy from waste accounted for 6.9% of overall renewable electricity generated in Scotland in 2022 [See reference 266] and whilst the current capacity of wave and tidal is considered to be relatively small, technology is developing and Scotland benefits from significant resource potential in these areas. At a domestic level, Scotland is reliant on gas as the primary heating fuel for homes, with 81% of Scotland’s 2.0 million dwellings using gas [See reference 267]. However, almost 20% of Scottish domestic consumers live in an off-gas grid area, with the highest proportion of off-grid properties found in the Highlands and Argyll and Bute [See reference 268].

In 2022, Scotland generated 5.63 TWh of renewable heat, marking a record year for this sector. Between 2021 and 2022, the majority of the increase was driven by biomass installations, which contributed 83 GWh making up 66.6% of the total output. Biomethane was the second-largest contributor, accounting for 16% of total renewable heat and increasing by 52 GWh. During the same period, heat pump installations rose by 3,446, accounting for 11% of overall output. However, their contribution remains relatively small because they are primarily found in domestic settings, where capacities are lower and year-round usage is limited compared to other heat sources. [See reference 269].

Between 2000 and 2021, renewable electricity generation in Scotland has displaced an estimated 173.8 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions [See reference 270].

Evolution of baseline – Pressures, trends and key points

Agricultural land and food production

The combination of long-standing environmental constraints and shifting socio-economic conditions, as well as the presence of poor land quality, adverse weather, and limited crop potential, continues to restrict opportunities for agricultural diversification and intensification. While Scotland’s upland systems are well-suited to extensive grazing, their economic performance remains marginal and vulnerable to external shocks.

Ongoing trends include ageing rural populations, declining agricultural incomes, and limited uptake of new technologies in remote areas. The viability of crofting and small-scale livestock operations is increasingly challenged by market volatility, rising input costs, and the phasing out of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy. Simultaneously, LFAs are expected to contribute to national targets for climate change mitigation, biodiversity restoration, and rural resilience, placing additional expectations on land managers.

Despite these pressures, LFAs remain central to the delivery of a range of public goods. Rough grazing, improved grassland, and woodland found in LFAs support ecosystem services, carbon sequestration, and habitat connectivity. However, without targeted and sustained support, there is a risk of land abandonment, further depopulation, and the deterioration of these contributions to the wider public interest.

Climate change poses significant risks to livestock in Scotland, primarily due to the increased prevalence of parasites and diseases from the changing climate. Warmer, wetter winters create favourable conditions for parasites, which can adversely affect livestock health [See reference 271]. The changing climate is also expected to bring about more extreme weather patterns, variations in rainfall, and shifts in annual temperatures. These changes will likely influence the occurrence and persistence of bacteria, viruses, parasites, harmful algae, fungi, and their vectors in livestock. Animal products, such as meat and eggs, are particularly at risk, posing a higher threat to food safety compared to vegetables [See reference 272].

Food security is a growing concern, as climate change may lead to stock shortages and higher prices, impacting the availability of healthy and affordable food. While climate change presents numerous challenges, it also offers potential opportunities for Scotland's agricultural sector. Warmer temperatures could extend the growing season, allowing livestock to be outdoors for longer periods. However, these benefits may be offset by heat stress and reduced summer precipitation, which could disrupt the growing season [See reference 273].

The long-term trend of declining livestock populations in Scotland can be exacerbated by climate change impacts, further increasing the pressures on food security and the agricultural economy. Reduced livestock numbers may lead to decreased meat and dairy production, potentially increasing reliance on imports and affecting local food prices. The decline in livestock populations will likely result in further decreases in agricultural emissions in Scotland.

Energy

As Scotland’s energy mix changes over the next few years, the electricity transmission network (grid) that supports the balance between energy generation and demand will change significantly. For example, as a result of the increased electrification of the transport and heat network. Infrastructure will play a key role in ensuring security of supply and decarbonising our energy systems in the most cost effective, affordable way [See reference 274]. Energy storage is likely to be an increasingly important part of the transition to delivering clean, affordable and secure supplies of energy [See reference 275]. For example, the continued development of battery storage technologies and hydrogen fuel cells for vehicle use in the transport sector.

Flooding poses one of the greatest long-term climate related risks to infrastructure performance. However, growing risks posed from heat, water scarcity and slope instability could also prove significant [See reference 276]. Severe weather events can exacerbate these risks with storm damage and wildfire risk significant for the electricity transmission network. These events can also impact on energy generation, including effects from water scarcity impacting on hydro power production, and severe winds impacting on wind energy production.

Likely evolution without implementation of the plan

Agricultural land

Without the implementation of the Agricultural Reform, Scotland’s Less Favoured Areas are likely to face continued socio-economic decline and increased environmental risk. The withdrawal of dedicated support mechanisms, in the absence of an integrated replacement, would significantly weaken the economic viability of crofting and extensive livestock systems, many of which are already operating at or near subsistence levels. Over time, the cumulative effects of reduced investment, labour shortages, and policy uncertainty may lead to land abandonment in marginal areas. This would jeopardise not only agricultural output but also the maintenance of valued cultural landscapes, biodiversity, and soil carbon stocks. The loss of actively land management could accelerate degradation processes such as erosion, scrub encroachment, and decline in habitat quality.

Moreover, without Agricultural Reform’s alignment with national climate and biodiversity objectives, Scotland’s LFA land would struggle to contribute meaningfully to nature restoration or climate resilience goals. This would undermine progress towards a just transition and the realisation of the Scottish Government’s Vision for Agriculture. Continued inaction would widen disparities between lowland and upland agriculture and risk the long-term sustainability of rural communities across much of the country.

Livestock and food production

Without the implementation of the Agricultural Reform, the pressures on livestock in Scotland are likely to intensify. The June 2024 Agricultural Census reflects a long-term trend of declining livestock populations in Scotland. This decline, coupled with the increased risks from parasites due to warmer, wetter winters, will exacerbate the health challenges faced by livestock. The persistence of bacteria, viruses, parasites, harmful algae, fungi, and their vectors will continue to impact livestock health, leading to higher incidences of disease and reduced productivity. The declining trend in livestock populations has the potential to lead to decreases in meat and dairy production, increasing reliance on imports and affecting local food prices.

Emissions from the agricultural sector is likely to maintain a modest decrease. Without the Agricultural Reform, opportunities for significant reductions in emissions could be lost.

Overall, without Agricultural Reform, the potential opportunities for Scotland's agricultural sector may be significantly hindered. While warmer temperatures could extend the growing season and allow livestock to be outdoors for longer periods, these benefits may be offset by heat stress and reduced summer precipitation. The disruption of the growing season will negatively impact agricultural productivity and the ability to adapt to climate change.

Energy

The Scottish Government has a number of policies and plans which support a transition to net zero, supporting renewable and low-carbon technologies. Without the implementation of the Agricultural Reform, there could be less opportunity for these to be integrated into the agricultural sector. The Agricultural Reform could support in the transition to a low-carbon energy system, particularly in rural areas where renewable and low-carbon technologies can be integrated into farm and land management practices. It could also support more sustainable and resilient off-grid energy solutions for remote communities and farms. Without the implementation of the Agricultural Reform, opportunities to better align the agricultural sector and land use with energy and climate goals may be missed. This could result in reduced uptake of renewable energy in rural areas and missed opportunities to enhance resilience to climate impacts such as flooding, drought, or wildfire that can affect rural infrastructure and energy generation potential.