Scottish prison population projections
Presents the first projections to be published since the COVID-19 pandemic began. These projections have been produced using ‘microsimulation’ scenario modelling which simulates prison arrivals and departures and estimates the number of individuals in prison on a particular date in the future.
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6 Microsimulation Model Results: April 2023 to September 2023
The latest prison population projections are shown in Figure 12 and Table 1 below. These indicate that it is highly likely[23] that the overall prison population in Scotland will either remain stable or rise slightly from April to September 2023.
The results also show that it is highly likely that the remand population will either remain stable or decrease. If it decreases, primarily because of enhanced monthly case conclusions, this could contribute to an increased sentenced population as people transition from remand to the sentenced population. It is projected that the sentenced population will either remain stable or rise slightly; it may rise if the overall rate of transition from remand to the sentenced population increases or if there is a greater inflow of individuals directly from the community to the sentenced population.
| Month | Remand | Sentenced | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Daily Population by Month - Lower estimate | Average Daily Population by Month - Upper estimate | Average Daily Population by Month - Lower estimate | Average Daily Population by Month - Upper estimate | Average Daily Population by Month - Lower estimate | Average Daily Population by Month - Upper estimate | |
| Apr 2023 | 2,000 | 2,200 | 5,400 | 5,500 | 7,450 | 7,600 |
| May 2023 | 1,900 | 2,300 | 5,350 | 5,550 | 7,350 | 7,700 |
| Jun 2023 | 1,800 | 2,400 | 5,300 | 5,650 | 7,300 | 7,800 |
| Jul 2023 | 1,600 | 2,450 | 5,350 | 5,800 | 7,300 | 7,900 |
| Aug 2023 | 1,500 | 2,500 | 5,400 | 5,950 | 7,300 | 8,000 |
| Sep 2023 | 1,350 | 2,550 | 5,450 | 6,100 | 7,300 | 8,050 |
Over the course of the next few months remand arrivals, sentenced arrivals and case conclusion levels will be monitored to ascertain if, following changes to court capacity, actual prison population numbers are more closely aligned to the lower, central, or higher court throughput scenarios. It should be noted that whilst the projections are based on past trends and confirmed changes to court capacity, they do not explicitly model the impact of potential future policy or operational changes and their potential impact on the prison population.
Contact
Email: justice_analysts@gov.scot
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