Scottish Prison Population Projections: February 2024 Edition

This report presents short-term Scottish prison population projections for the six month period from January to June 2024. They have been produced using ‘microsimulation’ scenario modelling which simulates prison arrivals and departures, and estimates the number of individuals in prison.

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1 Key Points

The latest prison population projections to June 2024 show that:

  • The overall prison population in Scotland is most likely to either remain stable or rise slightly between January and June 2024, with a projected range of between 7,350 and 8,450 for the average daily prison population in June 2024. On 5th February 2024, the prison population was around 7,900.
  • It is most likely that the remand population will remain stable between January 2024 and June 2024. If it decreases because of enhanced monthly case conclusions, this may contribute to an increased sentenced population as more individuals transition from remand.
  • It is most likely that the sentenced population will either remain stable or rise slightly; it may rise if the overall rate of transition from remand to the sentenced population increases or if there is a greater inflow of individuals directly from the community into the sentenced population.

There is uncertainty in the prison population projections over the next six months due to several factors, including variability in court case registrations and throughput.



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