Scottish economic bulletin: June 2026

Footnotes

1 Economy statistics - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2 GDP monthly estimate, UK - Office for National Statistics

3 Consumer price inflation, UK - Office for National Statistics

4 Energy price cap will rise by 13% from July | Ofgem

5 The chart illustrates the Cornwall Insight cap prediction from 27 May 2026, using current TDCVs which indicates a 2% increase in the EPC in Q4 2026. Predictions & Insights into the Default Tariff Cap (Price Cap) - Cornwall Insight

6 Monthly and annual prices of road fuels and petroleum products - GOV.UK

7 Monetary Policy Report - April 2026 | Bank of England

8 Bank Rate maintained at 3.75% - April 2026 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes | Bank of England

9 Bank of England Database

10 Economy statistics - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

11 Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | Royal Bank of Scotland , Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | NatWest Business , https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/public/release/pressreleases

12 Business and innovation statistics - gov.scot

13 Producer price inflation, UK - Office for National Statistics

14 Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | Royal Bank of Scotland , Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | NatWest Business , https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/public/release/pressreleases

15 Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | Royal Bank of Scotland , Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | NatWest Business , https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/public/release/pressreleases

16 Labour market statistics - gov.scot

17 Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, seasonally adjusted - Office for National Statistics

18 Nomis - Official Census and Labour Market Statistics

19 Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | Royal Bank of Scotland , Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | NatWest Business , https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/public/release/pressreleases

20 Textkernel new online job adverts - Office for National Statistics

21 Earnings and employment from Pay as You Earn Real Time Information, seasonally adjusted - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

22 World Economic Outlook, April 2026: Global Economy in the Shadow of War

23 Monetary Policy Report - April 2026 | Bank of England

24 Forecasts for the UK economy: May 2026 - GOV.UK

25 Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – January 2026 | Scottish Fiscal Commission

26 FAI Economic Commentary Q1 2026 | FAI